September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Happy labor day, friends.

Here's to the close of another great summer and to an autumn and winter with some awesome friends here. Bless you all.

[St Paul Storm]

Unofficial last day of summer might be one of the more exciting days all summer here. Enhanced risk of severe storms later with all modes possible. That one mean looking MCS on some of the models.

[St Paul Storm]

Meanwhile, prayers to those in the Bahamas today. Dorian has stopped to a crawl with gusts to 200mph. I can’t imagine...

[OKwx2k4]

Meanwhile, prayers to those in the Bahamas today. Dorian has stopped to a crawl with gusts to 200mph. I can’t imagine...

Agree buddy. They're in my prayers this morning for sure. Horrifying deal for them. I couldn't imagine either.

[CentralNebWeather]

Will today be the last hurrah of the combination of temp above 90, dew in the mid 70’s, and heat index pushing 100? Gosh I hope so. This had gotten old weeks and weeks ago.

[Andie]

Dorian may be the worst in history. Different from Katrina in character. Dorian may scrape the eastern seaboard and damage more. But the slow path and wind speed is absolutely jaw dropping.

 

If we're lucky, the steering winds will allow it to move out to sea. The High will move some, hopefully not to hit Bermuda, although the water isn't 87* there.

 

Texas has another week of 95-99* dry days. Fall isn't here yet.

[OKwx2k4]

Dorian may be the worst in history. Different from Katrina in character. Dorian may scrape the eastern seaboard and damage more. But the slow path and wind speed is absolutely jaw dropping.

 

If we're lucky, the steering winds will allow it to move out to sea. The High will move some, hopefully not to hit Bermuda, although the water isn't 87* there.

 

Texas has another week of 95-99* dry days. Fall isn't here yet.

As you said, the "target" track is still abysmal from Florida to Maine. Crazy stuff.

[St Paul Storm]

No major update to the enhanced risk area tonight. QLCS or MCS looks almost definite. Not exactly the best time of day for severe wx but this has my interest. Winds with the line may become a problem. With an exceptionally wet summer the tree roots might not hold with severe winds.

 

Currently mostly sunny and dew points surging as the warm front moves north. Fuel for the fire.

[james1976]

Just opened the blinds to the patio door and first thing I see are a few leaves on the deck. I'm actually seeing a bit of color here and there around the neighborhood. It's very little but definite signs of fall approaching quickly. Love it. 60s for highs this coming weekend!

[CentralNebWeather]

Just opened the blinds to the patio door and first thing I see are a few leaves on the deck. I'm actually seeing a bit of color here and there around the neighborhood. It's very little but definite signs of fall approaching quickly. Love it. 60s for highs this coming weekend!

Noticed a little around here last night as well, especially maple trees.

[East Dubzz]

My first request as a married man is for some good thunderstorms to appear in the forecast!

[Niko]

It is pouring outside now (torrential rainfall and gusty winds at 40mph). I must have picked up at least ova an inch. Temp at 75F.

[Niko]

Looks like chilly air arriving by mid week as temps do not get outta the 60s and lows in the 40s.

[OKwx2k4]

Not gonna lie, after further study and though, that was the most disgusting run of ensembles I have ever seen through mid-September. If there's any good news there, I'd love to hear it. Total reversal from the summer pattern of trough in the center of the US with ridges on either side. Year 4 of hot September crap unless it changes in a few days.

[james1976]

Not gonna lie, after further study and though, that was the most disgusting run of ensembles I have ever seen through mid-September. If there's any good news there, I'd love to hear it. Total reversal from the summer pattern of trough in the center of the US with ridges on either side. Year 4 of hot September crap unless it changes in a few days.

60s for highs up here this coming weekend. Really hoping the heat and humidity is about done with.

[Niko]

The torrential rains have ended and now some sunshine breaking through those clouds. Man, it feels like Autumn out there. That Summer look is gone. Also, I am started to see some color on some trees.

[OKwx2k4]

60s for highs up here this coming weekend. Really hoping the heat and humidity is about done with.

I'm glad you caught a break man. That's awesome. I bet that will feel refreshing. I'll have to wait another week or more, it appears.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like we topped out at 92 today with a heat index of 100 and a 73 dew point. My first wish is a drier airmass. Hoping for cooling this weekend.

[CentralNebWeather]

We are losing about 2 1/2 minutes of light a day or close to 18 minutes a week now in September.

[james1976]

Hello met fall!

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside w crystal clear skies and temps holding at 63F. Lows will be dropping into the 50s tanite.

[St Paul Storm]

Time to saddle up. Tornado warning west of the metro. MCS coming in hot.

[St Paul Storm]

Radar confirmed tornado western burbs heading towards Minneapolis and St Paul.

[Niko]

Severe weather tomorrow for all of SEMI with tornadoes in play and very large hail. Everything is on the table as all ingredients will fall together. Something to closely monitor.

 

@Jaster- Not sure if you are in town bud, but some really nasty weather coming. Looks like you might finally get that hvy rainfall.

[OKwx2k4]

Its like the KS border has a dang cold air blocking wall. Stupid ridge.

[Tom]

Radar confirmed tornado western burbs heading towards Minneapolis and St Paul.

I hope you and your family managed to stay safe.  That was one hellova line of storms.

[Tom]

Meanwhile, Duluth is setting another record low this morning of 46F (old 47F 1994)...its no wonder the Northwoods are seeing early fall colors this year.  This is likely going to be the theme as we move along through this month while the south members continue to battle with the stubburn summer ridge.

[St Paul Storm]

I hope you and your family managed to stay safe.  That was one hellova line of storms.

I faintly heard the sirens one county to my west so I got the kiddo and told the wife we needed to head downstairs just in case. Nothing too severe at my place though. Just some downed small branches. It was a nice way to end what is likely the last of the severe season up this way.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

720 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019
 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-040900-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

720 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

Numerous strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected to

develop this afternoon into the evening hours ahead of strong cold

front. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be from 5 pm

through about midnight. Discrete cells may occur near the beginning

of the event before more upscale growth along the line occurs. Storm

motion will be generally west to east at about 45 mph. Hail in

excess of 1 inch, damaging winds of 60 mph or greater, along with

isolated tornadoes are all possible.

 

[Niko]

Nasty weather today for all of SEMI in the pm hours.

 

Current readings at 66F under mostly to partly cloudy skies. A tad humid. A strong CF coming today.

[Andie]

Dorian is schizoid. Stalled, maybe 1 mph. Wandering like crazy fireworks on the 4th.

 

With no forward speed, mets can't really forecast with confidence where that thing is going.

One met said Hurricanes Harvey and Alison both sat on Houston for 5 days.

One thing about weather, it will change. It's a matter of when.

[Hawkeye]

I heard rain drops at 3am, checked the radar, and the had to run out and set up my rain gauge.  Of course, the clusters of cells then crapped out and we got nothing.

[jaster220]

Dorian is schizoid. Stalled, maybe 1 mph. Wandering like crazy fireworks on the 4th.

 

With no forward speed, mets can't really forecast with confidence where that thing is going.

One met said Hurricanes Harvey and Alison both sat on Houston for 5 days.

One thing about weather, it will change. It's a matter of when.

 

She may be random, but she's blown herself out spinning on Grand Bahama. Eye completely filled, lost 30 mb's of strength. Am I the only one who thinks the Hurricane Warnings along E. Florida are overkill? Even TWC has at worst Tropical Storm gusts, which on the atlantic coast can happen on a breezy day any month of the year. 

 

@ Niko

I'm still in DC buddy. Would be just like this summer to finally slam my place when I'm away. My daughter has come to like severe wx, but she will panic a bit if it gets too rough. Doesn't help that the civil warning siren is just 2 doors down and about rattles the windows when activated. Sounds just like the air raid sirens used in Great Britain during the Nazi bombing blitz. It's a bit unnerving when you know there's a genuine threat incoming.  

[Niko]

She may be random, but she's blown herself out spinning on Grand Bahama. Eye completely filled, lost 30 mb's of strength. Am I the only one who thinks the Hurricane Warnings along E. Florida are overkill? Even TWC has at worst Tropical Storm gusts, which on the atlantic coast can happen on a breezy day any month of the year. 

 

@ Niko

I'm still in DC buddy. Would be just like this summer to finally slam my place when I'm away. My daughter has come to like severe wx, but she will panic a bit if it gets too rough. Doesn't help that the civil warning siren is just 2 doors down and about rattles the windows when activated. Sounds just like the air raid sirens used in Great Britain during the Nazi bombing blitz. It's a bit unnerving when you know there's a genuine threat incoming.  

Looks like Dorian will be a threat for the fish up there. DC should be spare. You might feel a little wind gusts.

Doesn't look too ominous there and you are right about down on the Atlantic coast feeling TS force winds on a breezy day at any month of the year. One time at was in NJ (Atlantic City, walking on the  boardwalk) on a beautiful sunny day and there were wind gusts of 40 to 50mph.

 

Enjoy your stay there bud. Have fun!

[Niko]

Dorian is schizoid. Stalled, maybe 1 mph. Wandering like crazy fireworks on the 4th.

 

With no forward speed, mets can't really forecast with confidence where that thing is going.

One met said Hurricanes Harvey and Alison both sat on Houston for 5 days.

One thing about weather, it will change. It's a matter of when.

Eastern FL. is looking like a real miss on the coastline. They are not even inside the cone. The Carolinas might feel the brunt as the eyewall could pass ova the Outer Banks of NC. Thats when it will enter w the jet stream and get kicked outta here abruptly.

[East Dubzz]

My first request as a married man is for some good thunderstorms to appear in the forecast!

 

Ask and ye shall receive! Woke up to some nice lightning & thunder in the early AM. Ended up with 0.42" of rain.

[Tom]

Ask and ye shall receive! Woke up to some nice lightning & thunder in the early AM. Ended up with 0.42" of rain.

How was your wedding? Was the sun out on Saturday for pictures?

[CentralNebWeather]

Cold front is moving through, northeast winds gusting to 23 MPH but still at 77 with a 70 dew.  I think that dew is supposed to slowly drop this afternoon and evening.  Irrigation season ended in my area last week for the most part.  My kids helped their uncle and grandfather pick up 5 loads of pipe.  Their other fields are all center pivot.  My brother in law says it is one of the shortest water seasons they have ever had which then saves on water and electricity costs.

[Niko]

Currently at 75F under mostly cloudy skies. Its a tad humid, but not that bad.

[OKwx2k4]

She may be random, but she's blown herself out spinning on Grand Bahama. Eye completely filled, lost 30 mb's of strength. Am I the only one who thinks the Hurricane Warnings along E. Florida are overkill? Even TWC has at worst Tropical Storm gusts, which on the atlantic coast can happen on a breezy day any month of the year.

 

@ Niko

I'm still in DC buddy. Would be just like this summer to finally slam my place when I'm away. My daughter has come to like severe wx, but she will panic a bit if it gets too rough. Doesn't help that the civil warning siren is just 2 doors down and about rattles the windows when activated. Sounds just like the air raid sirens used in Great Britain during the Nazi bombing blitz. It's a bit unnerving when you know there's a genuine threat incoming.

They removed the ones on east Florida.

 

I still think it was wise to prepare the way they did and keep the situation addressed. If that thing hadn't stalled, the folks complaining would have a lot more t ok complain about today. A slow moving, major cat 5 hurricane like that is largely unpredictable.