September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Sioux Falls got hit with a tornado last night on the south side. Severe damage and some injuries. I was just there last Friday in that exact same area.

[Tom]

Interesting.. Is that a little tropical system coming inland at the FL panhandle? Heads almost due north towards NOH, like it gets picked-up by the stronger Plains system. All I can say is that the #wx can only get more interesting for my place vs the last (10) weeks. 

 

Here we go..

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1049 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

 

Confidence is increasing that thunderstorms with damaging winds,

small hail, and torrential rainfall will occur starting as early

as 2 PM but mainly after 4 PM through midnight across all of western

Lower Michigan. A non-zero tornado threat may also develop as

well, mainly north of I-96. The threat is expected to wane after

sunset and especially toward midnight. For interested parties, a

more technical discussion is provided below.

The tropical system that is showing up on the models Day 10 near FL is still part of our current LRC.  Gary has predicted a storm around the 20th of Sept for a number of weeks now and its showing up on the models.

[james1976]

There's been more clouds and rain so far today than what I was expecting and I'm fine with that. Keeps the temps down a bit.

[Tom]

Who thinks parts of the Upper MW will see their first snow flakes by months end???  It's been on my mind since the middle of Summer...earliest Last Flake vs First Flake in the cards for the U.P. and Northwoods???

[Iowawx]

The HRRR is showing something like what DVN is talking about.  The front sags south to near CR, then storms pop and train just north of the front.  Like DVN says, though, the front has to sag down here.

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

1110 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1104 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

 

A very challenging forecast is in store for tonight. Though I am

still very much in the coordination and interrogation stages of

making this forecast, I would like to pass on some mesoscale

things our forecast will hing on. First, the outflow arriving from

the west is oriented parallel to the flow below 700mb, and should

not be the focus for storms tonight. The mesoscale models all

support an exceptionally heavy rain tonight over our northern 1/2

or so. That hinges on the central Wisconsin MCS outflow moving due

south, pushing the effective warm front into our northern 1/2. If

that does not happen, then the event may not happen tonight in

our north. Still, this is a possible high impact scenario, we will

need to be ready for as the day progresses. A flash flood watch

may be issued for our northern counties if confidence increases,

as they are most prone to water problems due to recent wet

weather. We will begin social media on this threat soon, but

again, low confidence exists due to the mesoscale forcing, that is

not yet showing it's hand.

Based on how things look now, do you think Cedar Rapids could actually see heavy rain tonight? I wasn't expecting anything heavy this far south based on the maps from the WPC. 

[Hawkeye]

Based on how things look now, do you think Cedar Rapids could actually see heavy rain tonight? I wasn't expecting anything heavy this far south based on the maps from the WPC. 

 

It's possible, but it does not look especially widespread, so any one location would have to get lucky.

[Niko]

So far the radar is looking quiet, but that could change abruptly. Anxiously waiting to see how these storms will flare up lata this afternoon and evening.

[Niko]

Is mby's losing streak about to go down in flames?? Do droughts REALLY end with a flood?

 

Let's see how well my rain dome holds up against this "threat":

 

20190911 KRMY Gridcast.PNG

WOW!!!

[Niko]

Sparky- hows ya garden doing. I have delicious Tomatoes and Cucumbers from my garden as well as Zucchini, Peppers and soon I'll be getting some delicious Figs. Not there yet. Oh, my salads are delicious. Nothing like a fresh garden salad and a nice grill to go w it.

[Niko]

Currently at 84F w sunny skies. Dew at 71F n RF at 91F. Gorgeous outside.

[jcwxguy]

Sioux Falls got hit with a tornado last night on the south side. Severe damage and some injuries. I was just there last Friday in that exact same area.

my brother in law and sister in law both got hit

[St Paul Storm]

Who thinks parts of the Upper MW will see their first snow flakes by months end???  It's been on my mind since the middle of Summer...earliest Last Flake vs First Flake in the cards for the U.P. and Northwoods???

The 12z GFS shows some flakes in N MN at the end of the run. I remember we had a few flakes the last Saturday of September last year. I was camping that weekend and woke up to a few spits of snow. That was the earliest snow I can recall.

[Tom]

The 12z GFS shows some flakes in N MN at the end of the run. I remember we had a few flakes the last Saturday of September last year. I was camping that weekend and woke up to a few spits of snow. That was the earliest snow I can recall.

#Repeat'19

[Niko]

Radar is firing up now. Some good cells approaching from my SE.

[Tom]

I enjoy watching the TV series "Bering Sea Gold" and it so happens that Nome, AK is experiencing their first strong Fall Storm...

 

 

 

Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
427 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

AKZ211>214-120100-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins,
St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
427 AM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...Strong Fall Storm Moving into the West Coast Today...

A strong fall storm currently in the central Bering Sea will move
into the eastern Bering Sea today, which will produce winds gusts
to 55 mph over Norton Sound and St. Lawrence Island.
Additionally, heavy rain along the West Coast and into the Western
Interior is expected for today through Thursday. Total rain
accumulations of a half inch along the Seward Peninsula and south,
with higher terrain in the Nulato Hills exceeding one inch of
rain through Thursday afternoon. A High Surf Advisory is in
effect from Nome to Golovin for beach erosion and possible damage
to the Nome Council Road beginning Wednesday morning through
Thursday morning. In addition, expect minor beach erosion in other
areas along southeast facing shores of the Seward Peninsula and
St. Lawrence Island during this time frame. Exercise caution
around small streams and rivers as the heavy rain will likely
produce rapid rises on small streams and rivers. Residents should
monitor the latest forecasts and updates on this developing storm.

[jaster220]

  Legit headlines

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MIC005-015-017-025-035-037-045-049-057-063-065-067-073-075-077-
081-085-087-091-093-099-105-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-127-133-
139-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-163-120300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0645.190911T1830Z-190912T0300Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON
EATON GENESEE GRATIOT
HURON INGHAM IONIA
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KENT LAKE LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MASON MECOSTA MIDLAND
MONROE MONTCALM MUSKEGON
NEWAYGO OAKLAND OCEANA
OSCEOLA OTTAWA SAGINAW
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE ST. CLAIR
TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$

[jaster220]

#Repeat'19

 

 

Uhmm..please NO 

[james1976]

I spoke too soon. Sun came out and its gross. Feels like July

[St Paul Storm]

#Repeat'19

That would be incredible. Makes me want to change the oil in the snowblower this weekend just thinking about it.

[St Paul Storm]

Uhmm..please NO

Ha! Sorry

[St Paul Storm]

HRRR and other cams still showing around 2-4” of rain over the next 24 hours or so. Looks like 3 distinct lines of storms within that timeframe.

[jaster220]

my brother in law and sister in law both got hit

 

That's rough. Sorry for any loss or pains. The sad and unfortunate side of severe! 

[james1976]

Sept 27, 2013 was the earliest flake I've ever seen here. I'd take a repeat of that.

[St Paul Storm]

Flash flood watch issued. Gonna be a long night. The ground can’t take much more water. Another 2-3” expected with localized 3-5”.

[Minny_Weather]

Today was supposed to be slightly milder, but it reality it's actually more miserable than yesterday. 90.0*F.

[Hawkeye]

Clouds held our temp back through early afternoon, but the temp has soared into the mid to upper 80s while the dew is 74.

 

Unfortunately, the HRRR has backed off of the front getting down here tonight.  The latest HRRR and 3k nam are targeting highway 20 from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois tonight for the possibility of training storms.

[Stormy]

Sparky- hows ya garden doing. I have delicious Tomatoes and Cucumbers from my garden as well as Zucchini, Peppers and soon I'll be getting some delicious Figs. Not there yet. Oh, my salads are delicious. Nothing like a fresh garden salad and a nice grill to go w it.

It’s doing ok. Didn’t plant as many things as prior years. Only thing left is a bunch of tomatoes, some unripe peppers, cucumbers, and a few green beans. A lot of apples on the trees and harvested the grapes today.

[Stormy]

Towers are firing along hwy 20 now. DVN mentioned the possibility of VERY heavy nearly stationary storms somewhere in northeast Iowa. I can see them from my place. They might be forming along an outflow boundary. Every day storms were further south then models showed lately.

[Hawkeye]

Dubuque may get some good storms this evening/overnight, but EastDubzz is on his honeymoon.

[Niko]

It’s doing ok. Didn’t plant as many things as prior years. Only thing left is a bunch of tomatoes, some unripe peppers, cucumbers, and a few green beans. A lot of apples on the trees and harvested the grapes today.

Nice!

[Niko]

Man, water came down in buckets. I was at meetings and didnt get to observe the hvy rainfall, but could hear the waterdrops on the windows. Looks like it calmed down now, but more could be on the way. Everything looks saturated.

[Tom]

Tornado Warning one county to my north...just saw footage of a large wall cloud and funnel. Pretty crazy to see.

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI255 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-255 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightA Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all of southeastMichigan until 11 pm EDT.A moist and unstable airmass will lead to numerous thunderstormsdeveloping this afternoon, continuing through much of tonight as afrontal boundary hangs around. Some of thunderstorms will be severewith the main threat being wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH and hailaround 1 inch around diameter. However, an isolated tornado cannotbe ruled out. Heavy rainfall is also possible which may cause urbanand small stream type flooding.

"Radar is busy tanite, that's for sure."

[westMJim]

We were out to dinner when the storm rolled thru. The tornado sirens were on but now that we are home I can not hear them here. It is raining just a little here at this time with a temperature of 71 the power is on here but not on at my sons house. The rain gauge has 0.52" of rain so far.

[Niko]

Jaster- you have a strong line of storms to your west. Hopefully, it swings on by ya.

[westMJim]

Here is some information on the storm that went thru the Grand Rapids area

Tornado sirens went off in metro Grand Rapids Wednesday night as a strong storm rushed through the area, prompting a tornado warning.

The warning for Kent and Ionia counties has been allowed to expire, though one is now in effect in Eaton County until 9 p.m.

The National Weather Service says it seems like a tornado may have actually been on the tornado on the ground near Lowell, though we’re still waiting on confirmation of that.

The storm is moving east quickly at about 50 mph. The National Weather Service reports wind gusts of up to 53 miles in metro Grand Rapids, as well as trees down and power out. WOOD TV8 has been getting reports of downed trees and black traffic lights, as well as construction barrels blowing across highways. The latest is that 38,000 with out power in Grand Rapids

[westMJim]

The 9 PM update now there are 44,980 without power in the Grand Rapids area. Still getting light rain here at my house. Have power here but it is out just to the south and east of my house so I am lucky in that respect.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Here's the link to the damage surveys so far for the Sioux Falls storms. 3 EF-2 tornadoes confirmed so far. All of them lasted a minute or two and spun up on the front end of the line of storms that was moving through town. I have lots of friends from college that live there and one of the tornadoes passed about a block away from her house.

Kind of crazy to get 3 almost simultaneous tornadoes to spin up at the same time AND in such a small area of each other. Not sure if I remember ever seeing that before....

 

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/091019_siouxfalls_tornado

[jaster220]

 Rain dome crumbling to the ground as I type this...finally!  Apparently per GRR's warning there was a TOR on the ground about 20 miles to my north. Their site may be having issue tho since all the headlines seem to be outdated already??

[Niko]

Its a wet evening out there and thankfully, much needed rainfall on tap. Current temp at 69F w lightning and hvy downpours at times. No wind at all. No thunder.