September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Its a wet evening out there and thankfully, much needed rainfall on tap. Current temp at 69F w lightning and hvy downpours at times. No wind at all. No thunder.

 

Had strong thunder with the legit cell at 9:46

[OKwx2k4]

Sounds like harbingers of autumn coming up there with all the aggressive t-storms. Just like that all the weather world woke up in one day. Lol.

Be safe everyone.

[Niko]

Had strong thunder with the legit cell at 9:46

Awesome....yup, I saw the radar and it was aiming right at ya.

[Niko]

Sounds like harbingers of autumn coming up there with all the aggressive t-storms. Just like that all the weather world woke up in one day. Lol.

Be safe everyone.

Its wild up here this evening. Very hvy dowpours. Nothing severe though as of yet. One thing is for sure, flooding will be the main concern here.

[jaster220]

Sounds like harbingers of autumn coming up there with all the aggressive t-storms. Just like that all the weather world woke up in one day. Lol.

Be safe everyone.

 

My thoughts exactly. Extremely close lightning strike moments ago. Soooo not used to this...

[jaster220]

 Rain dome crumbling to the ground as I type this...finally!  Apparently per GRR's warning there was a TOR on the ground about 20 miles to my north. Their site may be having issue tho since all the headlines seem to be outdated already??

 

Hazards map time-stamp showing 7:59 pm. Definitely having some issues in GR

[OKwx2k4]

Saturday, Sunday and next Thursday look absolutely disgusting here for heat and high DPs. Heres to hope that it all fades. If I remember correctly, September 2010 was a lot like this. Then it seemed like overnight it was gone. Here's to hoping. I'm glad you folks up there are getting some exciting (scary, too, evidently) weather.

 

@jaster, yeah, intense c-g lightning still unnerves me a bit and I've been used to it all my life, so I understand.

[Iowawx]

This is ridiculous. Cedar Rapids is getting absolutely screwed again tonight. Just like we did on Monday night. 

 

I am so tired of Cedar Rapids missing out on these training heavy rain events. There hasn't been a training heavy rain event here since September 8, 2016 (3 years ago)! 

[james1976]

This is ridiculous. Cedar Rapids is getting absolutely screwed again tonight. Just like we did on Monday night.

 

I am so tired of Cedar Rapids missing out on these training heavy rain events. There hasn't been a training heavy rain event here since September 8, 2016 (3 years ago)!

Training events don't happen often. I haven't had that in years neither.

[Tom]

My thoughts exactly. Extremely close lightning strike moments ago. Soooo not used to this...

Turn of events??? Finally looks like MI has been ground zero for severe wx for a change. I was thinking about our MI posters yesterday when the radar blew up yesterday. More storms late tonight???

 

@ OKWx, I like your comment regarding the atmosphere's harbinger signs. Many signals in nature are effectively shining bright, none more so, than the vivid lighting and tremendous power of severe storms. Speaking of the power of nature, last night's 00z Euro/EPS now have the tropical system tracking earily similar to Dorian's track off the FL/SE coast and intensifying into a CAT 2 or 3??? Then another one following it up?? I like seeing these storms tracking off the coast line of the eastern US as it provides a favorable pattern for your area to have troughs knife down the central CONUS. By the 20th/21st, a classic signal for your first legit taste of an early Autumn CF and a reprieve from the relentless heat/humidity later next week. Your patience will be rewarded.

[Tom]

My, oh my, has nature tanked the SOI...a little rhyme this morning as I sip on my morning "bullet" coffee....I like what I'm seeing off the JMA weeklies and its lining up with the BSR and more data is supporting my ideas of the new LRC as we open up October.  The atmosphere is getting primed up for some wild weather and major buckling troughs.  Buckle up, we are going to see some impressive storm systems and strong autumnal CF's as we close out September.

 

Here we go, the JMA weeklies are now suggesting a stronger trough for week 2 across the eastern CONUS as the "old" LRC begins to fade and hints of the "new" LRC begin showing up.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201909.D1112_gl0.png

 

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201909.D1112_gl2.png

 

 

Week 3-4...Aleutian Low taking shape early and often in October is a great sign coupled with the downstream western NAMER ridging.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201909.D1112_gl0.png

 

 

Temps...I expect temps to look colder for next weeks run but the look overall suggests a complete 180 on how we opened up October last year.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201909.D1112_gl2.png

 

 

 

Current SST's support the foregoing wx pattern being predicted above....'dat "ring of fire" is en fuego.  I read an article the other day stating that the waters off the coast of San Diego, CA reaching 78F or was it 79F hitting an all-time record high.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201909.D1112_gls.png

[westMJim]

It was a wild evening yesterday here in Grand Rapids. There was a strip of damage that extends west to east across the city and metro area. In that area there are trees down and several areas of structural damage. This is about two miles the south of me. And there are still over 29,000 locations without power. Here at my house I recorded 1.05" of rain fall, And yes there was some very intense lightning and thunder 

[westMJim]

Turn of events???  Finally looks like MI has been ground zero for severe wx for a change.  I was thinking about our MI posters yesterday when the radar blew up yesterday.  More storms late tonight???

 

Not sure about MI as a whole but it sure was a wild ride here in the Grand Rapids area yesterday evening.

[james1976]

Interesting read from DMX this morning. My area has been put in a Flash Flood Watch this afternoon for the potential of 3+ inches of rain and I'm also in the hot spot for tornado potential. The Waterloo-Mason City corridor could be rocking later today.

[St Paul Storm]

I love storms and rainy days, but I’ll admit this week has been a little too wet. Feels like it’s been raining nonstop. Pouring buckets again this morning and another 1-3” expected today. Looks like some severe potential this afternoon but that is highly conditional. I’m ready for some dry weather and some late season heat.

[Hawkeye]

Some surprise cells this morning have dropped 0.26" here.

[Andie]

79*

DP 70*.....sticky.

 

The next 7-8 days will be dull and hot. 96* lows at 74*.

 

However around the 20th they're forecasting a front that will bring us rain and a high of 90*.

That may not sound like much to you, but in Texas it's a cool front and a harbinger of Fall.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and damp and much cooler w temps at 63F. Not getta outta the 60s today. Also, no storms. Kinda getting a break b4 round 2 comes tomorrow, along w warmer, more humid air arrives again. Drier air arrives for the weekend and slightly cooler w temps approaching the upper 70s.

 

Definitely received ova 2 inches yesterday. Everything outside is saturated. No sprinklers now for  a few days.

[Niko]

79*

DP 70*.....sticky.

 

The next 7-8 days will be dull and hot. 96* lows at 74*.

 

However around the 20th they're forecasting a front that will bring us rain and a high of 90*.

That may not sound like much to you, but in Texas it's a cool front and a harbinger of Fall.

Its a heatwave up here, if those temps were to occur. 

[Stormy]

Currently cloudy and damp and much cooler w temps at 63F. Not getta outta the 60s today. Also, no storms. Kinda getting a break b4 round 2 comes tomorrow, along w warmer, more humid air arrives again. Drier air arrives for the weekend and slightly cooler w temps approaching the upper 70s.

 

Definitely received ova 2 inches yesterday. Everything outside is saturated. No sprinklers now for  a few days.

Wow, that's a big rain!

[james1976]

Had a nice 0.48" yesterday

[Stormy]

Some surprise cells this morning have dropped 0.26" here.

These little cells don't look that hot on radar, but PWATs are high above our heads so rain rates/amounts are pretty good.

[Niko]

Wow, that's a big rain!

Yup. A lot of standing water around. I-94 yesterday was flooded badly. Cars were at a standstill. Knee water surrounding the hwy. It was a mess.

[jaster220]

Turn of events??? Finally looks like MI has been ground zero for severe wx for a change. I was thinking about our MI posters yesterday when the radar blew up yesterday. More storms late tonight???

 

@ OKWx, I like your comment regarding the atmosphere's harbinger signs. Many signals in nature are effectively shining bright, none more so, than the vivid lighting and tremendous power of severe storms. Speaking of the power of nature, last night's 00z Euro/EPS now have the tropical system tracking earily similar to Dorian's track off the FL/SE coast and intensifying into a CAT 2 or 3??? Then another one following it up?? I like seeing these storms tracking off the coast line of the eastern US as it provides a favorable pattern for your area to have troughs knife down the central CONUS. By the 20th/21st, a classic signal for your first legit taste of an early Autumn CF and a reprieve from the relentless heat/humidity later next week. Your patience will be rewarded.

 

While I didn't quite make the severe warning threshold, mby's (10) week wait for a decent slug of moisture finally ended. The airport's showing 1.22" and there may well have been a bit more at my place. Great to see the garden soaked and the aroma of "wet" for the first time since before July 4th holiday. The cloudy-n-cool day is good as well for the soaking in instead of a hot sunny day that typically follows in JJA. I'd like to take this as a sign things are indeed changing for the better as we look ahead at the new LRC pattern getting established across the NH. 

[jaster220]

  Wow @ damage in GR, yet nothing on the NWS homepage. Seriously GRR??? 

 

Severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain, high winds and possible tornadoes to parts of Michigan, damaging buildings and leaving tens of thousands without power. The National Weather Service says a possible tornado was reported in the western Michigan city of Grand Rapids and emergency management officials in surrounding Kent County say several possible brief tornadoes were spotted on radar.

 

https://www.wzzm13.com/video/news/local/serious-damage-in-grand-rapids-neighbor-following-storms/69-07ab1ef2-de51-4308-b438-1e12d4bc178c

[Niko]

  Wow @ damage in GR, yet nothing on the NWS homepage. Seriously GRR??? 

 

Severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain, high winds and possible tornadoes to parts of Michigan, damaging buildings and leaving tens of thousands without power. The National Weather Service says a possible tornado was reported in the western Michigan city of Grand Rapids and emergency management officials in surrounding Kent County say several possible brief tornadoes were spotted on radar.

 

https://www.wzzm13.com/video/news/local/serious-damage-in-grand-rapids-neighbor-following-storms/69-07ab1ef2-de51-4308-b438-1e12d4bc178c

Why am I not surprised!

[Niko]

Very comfortable day outside w temps in the 60s. Skies conditions are cloudy.

[OKwx2k4]

Turn of events??? Finally looks like MI has been ground zero for severe wx for a change. I was thinking about our MI posters yesterday when the radar blew up yesterday. More storms late tonight???

 

@ OKWx, I like your comment regarding the atmosphere's harbinger signs. Many signals in nature are effectively shining bright, none more so, than the vivid lighting and tremendous power of severe storms. Speaking of the power of nature, last night's 00z Euro/EPS now have the tropical system tracking earily similar to Dorian's track off the FL/SE coast and intensifying into a CAT 2 or 3??? Then another one following it up?? I like seeing these storms tracking off the coast line of the eastern US as it provides a favorable pattern for your area to have troughs knife down the central CONUS. By the 20th/21st, a classic signal for your first legit taste of an early Autumn CF and a reprieve from the relentless heat/humidity later next week. Your patience will be rewarded.

I know I picked those days about 35 days ago based on some hints I have witnessed, but i have to admit, my faith has been tested pretty hard since then. Lol.

 

I've paid the piper, now let's see that little devil play!

 

As you said, and as have I, those hurricanes on the EC and 100-200 miles out to sea are a sign that the ridge weakens over here every time. In other words, it's in the right place so that when retrogression happens, it won't be over me, it will be at my east and very flexible. I like what I see, just need to stick to my guns.

 

It's hard to look so far forward sometimes and be objective, but I think I have done a much fairer job of that this year. It's hot. No way to disguise that. Although the last of August did flash a taste of cool, it's long since been erased this past 2 weeks. I believe it's for a good purpose this time though. I really do.

[Iowawx]

Because there have been lots of days this summer where Cedar Rapids has been in a slight risk of severe weather but the severe weather never materialized, I don't know what to expect here later today. The skies are not completely clear so that could limit the instability for the thunderstorms. 

[jaster220]

Because there have been lots of days this summer where Cedar Rapids has been in a slight risk of severe weather but the severe weather never materialized, I don't know what to expect here later today. The skies are not completely clear so that could limit the instability for the thunderstorms. 

 

I finally had an 80% T-storms likely forecast verify...there's hope 

[Niko]

Tomorrow seems like more boomers are likely. Thereafter, the weekend looks splendid w low humidity and slightly cooler w temps remaining average (70s).

[jaster220]

I'd like to be getting my system rains with 35-40 mph winds like NMI Straights area is expecting. That'll give it the real autumn touch for sure. Right off-shore of Whitefish Point (where the Fitzgerald sank) you can see an area of 55+ gales. 

 

[Iowawx]

It now looks like a bust is quite possible again in Cedar Rapids again tonight. HRRR has almost nothing here. The line craps out to the west but then somehow refires in Illinois. 

 

The lack of severe weather in Cedar Rapids is really getting old. I haven't seen a shelf cloud here all summer.

[bud2380]

It now looks like a bust is quite possible again in Cedar Rapids again tonight. HRRR has almost nothing here. The line craps out to the west but then somehow refires in Illinois. 

 

The lack of severe weather in Cedar Rapids is really getting old. I haven't seen a shelf cloud here all summer.

 

This is what I"m rooting for.  I've got a sand volleyball tournament tonight and don't want to miss out on that.  the 18z HRRR shows nada tonight for CR.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

South Dakota was hit hard again last night, this time with flooding. A large area of 4-7" of rain fell in southeast South Dakota. I have relatives and friends in Mitchell(where the Corn Palace is located), and my uncle and a cousin said they had 3 feet of water in their basements.

Here's a link to some drone footage of flooding in the town of Madison, SD

https://www.keloland.com/news/local-news/drone-video-flooding-in-madison/

[St Paul Storm]

Folks near the MN-IA border about to get whacked hard. Decorah, IA in the cross hairs.

 

More storms firing off the west here. It never ends.

[james1976]

Widespread severe thunderstorm watch along with a tornado watch and flash flood watch. Could be an interesting night for many.

[Iowawx]

Some thunderstorms are forming to the southwest of Cedar Rapids. They should be here within the next half hour or so.

 

Main line coming together off to the west.

[Niko]

Some sprinkles currently making for a dreary afternoon. Temps remain cool, in the 60s.

[Niko]

Euro continuously with 2 runs in a row has been showing an EC threat. Hoping the Bahamas stays clear. Something to watch in the long run.