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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Requiem

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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A bit early but hopefully cold and stormy esp if that correlates to Dec-Jan action.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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A bit early but hopefully cold and stormy esp if that correlates to Dec-Jan action.

 

There's no significant correlation between September precip and good winters following, but all else being equal (ENSO, solar, etc) wetter/stormier falls are more likely to lead to good winters.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I'm betting we will see reversal in the pattern putting an end to the persistent muggy weather and abnormally warm minimums in September.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nice morning. 68F

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The eye is right over Marsh Harbour and Elbow Cay right now... must be something to see it go from 150 mph wind and torrential rain to perfectly sunny and calm in a matter of minutes.   Hopefully no one is there to see it though.

 

dor3.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The eye is right over Marsh Harbour and Elbow Cay right now... must be something to see it go from 150 mph wind and torrential rain to perfectly sunny and calm in a matter of minutes. Hopefully no one is there to see it though.

 

dor3.png

There is a storm chaser tweeting from there. Sounds like he is held up in a school and there are people (6) including children.

 

“11:40 am. Pounding. CRASHING. Boards prying off windows. We're moving children to a safe space, wrapping them in blankets. 969 mg. #DORIAN”

 

Josh Morgerman

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Scored our second 60+ low of the year this morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I see the GFS is initializing Dorien at 959mb...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Trump really deserves all the credit. 

 

I was listening to Joe Rogan w/Penn Jillette last night, and they were saying they think Trump is on Aderall. I agree. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Andrew Wulfeck

@andrewwulfeck

BREAKING: Euro model has shifted further west this afternoon (it was originally on the eastern side of the cone). Florida needs to prepare for a major hurricane strike. Expect next NHC advisory to shift west as well. #FLWX. #Dorian.

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Trump really deserves all the credit. 

 

I was listening to Joe Rogan w/Penn Jillette last night, and they were saying they think Trump is on Aderall. I agree. 

 

Hard to say.  He is pretty down on drugs and alcohol due to his father.  I think he just thrives in a combative environment.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hard to say. He is pretty down on drugs and alcohol due to his father. I think he just thrives in a combative environment.

Yeah... "thrives" is not the word I would use. A real dumbing-down of discord and adolescent combativeness is more like it.

 

If he was a Democrat... you would absolutely hate his behavior. And I still would too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hard to say.  He is pretty down on drugs and alcohol due to his father.  I think he just thrives in a combative environment.

 

A lot of people make a psychological distinction between prescription and street drug use. Mental gymnastics we call it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some video coming out from Abaco in the eye of the hurricane. Surprised how many people are out walking around.

 

Central to north Florida landfall still looking quite likely to me

 

 

Link?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Haven’t heard from Josh Morgerman or anyone from iCyclone at ground zero for 5hrs now? They took a direct hit from a slow moving 185mph hurricane. Last I heard they were sheltered in a school there with a group of young children before the eyewall came ashore.

 

Some nasty video coming in from the other side of the island though, where there was heavy surge just from the NWerlies on the back quad (I think?...hopefully the island wasn’t completely over washed). If it’s that bad there I can’t imagine what the frontal quad must be like.

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Remember climate change and Donald Trump are 100% responsible for Hurricane Dorian. Also weather patterns in Russia colluded with the normal atmospheric cycle and started it all.

 

Take it to the politics thread.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Finally the beginning of an ERC?

 

Notice the faint outer ring to right of the inner eyewall. Not a given yet, but given the modeled increase in the radius of the wind field and previous pre-ERC presentations on radar, this might be the early stages of a future ERC, which would mercifully allow for a decrease in the core winds, though the size of the wind field would enlarge.

 

oT0BpQH.gif

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A bit early but hopefully cold and stormy esp if that correlates to Dec-Jan action.

 

September 2013 was very wet across the PNW, aside from an impressive arctic blast it was a below normal snow season. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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From the ABC team in Marsh Harbour (near the landfall point of Elbow Cay).

 

 

LCeSI7G.jpg

 

Quite remarkable the 1935 storm was almost the exact same date also.  The 1935-36 cold season went on to be one for the record books.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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