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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#1
K%%

Posted 29 August 2019 - 09:04 AM

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Discuss.


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#2
MossMan

Posted 29 August 2019 - 10:08 AM

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It’s August 29th.
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#3
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 29 August 2019 - 11:09 AM

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A bit early but hopefully cold and stormy esp if that correlates to Dec-Jan action.


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4
Front Ranger

Posted 29 August 2019 - 01:23 PM

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A bit early but hopefully cold and stormy esp if that correlates to Dec-Jan action.

 

There's no significant correlation between September precip and good winters following, but all else being equal (ENSO, solar, etc) wetter/stormier falls are more likely to lead to good winters.


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It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#5
snow_wizard

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:13 AM

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I'm betting we will see reversal in the pattern putting an end to the persistent muggy weather and abnormally warm minimums in September.  


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#6
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:13 AM

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Nice morning. 68F


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#7
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:17 AM

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The eye is right over Marsh Harbour and Elbow Cay right now... must be something to see it go from 150 mph wind and torrential rain to perfectly sunny and calm in a matter of minutes.   Hopefully no one is there to see it though.

 

dor3.png



#8
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:33 AM

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The eye is right over Marsh Harbour and Elbow Cay right now... must be something to see it go from 150 mph wind and torrential rain to perfectly sunny and calm in a matter of minutes. Hopefully no one is there to see it though.

dor3.png

There is a storm chaser tweeting from there. Sounds like he is held up in a school and there are people (6) including children.

“11:40 am. Pounding. CRASHING. Boards prying off windows. We're moving children to a safe space, wrapping them in blankets. 969 mg. #DORIAN”

Josh Morgerman

#9
MossMan

Posted 01 September 2019 - 09:13 AM

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It’s September 1st.

Currently 66 and mostly cloudy.

#10
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 September 2019 - 09:17 AM

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Scored our second 60+ low of the year this morning. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#11
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 September 2019 - 09:19 AM

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I see the GFS is initializing Dorien at 959mb...


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#12
iFred

Posted 01 September 2019 - 09:30 AM

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Snow maps when?



#13
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 10:51 AM

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Perfectly following coastline but staying just offshore the entire way.

20190901-115251.jpg
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#14
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 10:53 AM

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Mostly sunny now and 73 here... dewpoint of 60.

#15
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:07 AM

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Trump really deserves all the credit. 

 

I was listening to Joe Rogan w/Penn Jillette last night, and they were saying they think Trump is on Aderall. I agree. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#16
Farmboy

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:10 AM

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Andrew Wulfeck
@andrewwulfeck
BREAKING: Euro model has shifted further west this afternoon (it was originally on the eastern side of the cone). Florida needs to prepare for a major hurricane strike. Expect next NHC advisory to shift west as well. #FLWX. #Dorian.
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#17
snow_wizard

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:12 AM

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Trump really deserves all the credit. 

 

I was listening to Joe Rogan w/Penn Jillette last night, and they were saying they think Trump is on Aderall. I agree. 

 

Hard to say.  He is pretty down on drugs and alcohol due to his father.  I think he just thrives in a combative environment.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#18
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:23 AM

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Hard to say. He is pretty down on drugs and alcohol due to his father. I think he just thrives in a combative environment.

Yeah... "thrives" is not the word I would use. A real dumbing-down of discord and adolescent combativeness is more like it.

If he was a Democrat... you would absolutely hate his behavior. And I still would too.
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#19
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:30 AM

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Hard to say.  He is pretty down on drugs and alcohol due to his father.  I think he just thrives in a combative environment.

 

A lot of people make a psychological distinction between prescription and street drug use. Mental gymnastics we call it. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#20
iFred

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:41 AM

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Take it to the politics thread.
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#21
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:44 AM

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I’ve got a fever and the only prescription is more cow bell.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#22
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:52 AM

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Some video coming out from Abaco in the eye of the hurricane. Surprised how many people are out walking around.

Central to north Florida landfall still looking quite likely to me
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#23
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:54 AM

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Some video coming out from Abaco in the eye of the hurricane. Surprised how many people are out walking around.

Central to north Florida landfall still looking quite likely to me

 

 

Link?



#24
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:56 AM

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Take it to the politics thread.

 

Remember climate change and Donald Trump are 100% responsible for Hurricane Dorian. Also weather patterns in Russia colluded with the normal atmospheric cycle and started it all.



#25
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 11:58 AM

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Link?

Can you link twitter feeds?

#26
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:10 PM

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Haven’t heard from Josh Morgerman or anyone from iCyclone at ground zero for 5hrs now? They took a direct hit from a slow moving 185mph hurricane. Last I heard they were sheltered in a school there with a group of young children before the eyewall came ashore.

Some nasty video coming in from the other side of the island though, where there was heavy surge just from the NWerlies on the back quad (I think?...hopefully the island wasn’t completely over washed). If it’s that bad there I can’t imagine what the frontal quad must be like.
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#27
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:26 PM

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Link?

https://twitter.com/...5452621824?s=21

https://twitter.com/...3486683141?s=21
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#28
K%%

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:26 PM

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Remember climate change and Donald Trump are 100% responsible for Hurricane Dorian. Also weather patterns in Russia colluded with the normal atmospheric cycle and started it all.

 

Take it to the politics thread.


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#29
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:35 PM

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From the ABC team in Marsh Harbour (near the landfall point of Elbow Cay).

f9ie0FD.jpg
LCeSI7G.jpg
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#30
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:40 PM

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#31
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 01:15 PM

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Finally the beginning of an ERC?

Notice the faint outer ring to right of the inner eyewall. Not a given yet, but given the modeled increase in the radius of the wind field and previous pre-ERC presentations on radar, this might be the early stages of a future ERC, which would mercifully allow for a decrease in the core winds, though the size of the wind field would enlarge.

oT0BpQH.gif
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#32
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 September 2019 - 01:40 PM

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A bit early but hopefully cold and stormy esp if that correlates to Dec-Jan action.

 

September 2013 was very wet across the PNW, aside from an impressive arctic blast it was a below normal snow season. 


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 13
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 13 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#33
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:21 PM

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80 degrees and sunny on the sand bar on Lake Sammamish... glad we stayed home. :)

#34
snow_wizard

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:26 PM

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From the ABC team in Marsh Harbour (near the landfall point of Elbow Cay).


LCeSI7G.jpg

 

Quite remarkable the 1935 storm was almost the exact same date also.  The 1935-36 cold season went on to be one for the record books.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#35
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:39 PM

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Results of the Summer Forecast Contest are in.


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#36
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:40 PM

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EPS might be trending back west. Last three cycles...

1y0uxud.gif
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#37
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:44 PM

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20190901-154434.jpg
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#38
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:52 PM

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20190901-154434.jpg

Raining here
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#39
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 02:54 PM

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20190901-154434.jpg


Must you always turn the hue up to maximum? :rolleyes:
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#40
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:07 PM

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Must you always turn the hue up to maximum? :rolleyes:


I can't even see the pic in the sun here. Straight from camera to post image site.

#41
MossMan

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:11 PM

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Nice day out at Camano Island!

Attached Files


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#42
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:33 PM

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Nice day!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#43
van city

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:46 PM

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Nice day!


Nice pic.!

#44
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:50 PM

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I’d be pretty scared if I lived in the SE US along the Atlantic coast. Many of those islands are just absolutely decimated. Definitely the most powerful insane hurricane in my lifetime.
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#45
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:52 PM

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Looks like it’ll be a 77/62 day today. Would be nice to get some cooler, less muggy nights than what we’ve been seeing since late June. Had 28 nights 58+ this summer.

#46
Jginmartini

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:59 PM

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Topped out at 77* as well
Leaves were dropping big time here with the breezy conditions
Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm DENIED!!!

#47
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 04:07 PM

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SEA got to 79.

81 here in Issaquah and sunny.

#48
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:33 PM

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Topped out at 77* as well
Leaves were dropping big time here with the breezy conditions

yeah I noticed that on my way home from chinook pass yesterday, just barely beginning, seems slightly early.

#49
MossMan

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:39 PM

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Just the normal leaf dropping here with the alders. Always loose a percentage of them in late August. Majority of the alders won’t change and drop until the first good freeze.

#50
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:55 PM

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Just the normal leaf dropping here with the alders. Always loose a percentage of them in late August. Majority of the alders won’t change and drop until the first good freeze.

Alders are a stupid tree.

They start losing leaves in June but are often still green in early November. Then they just go bare overnight without ever changing colors.





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