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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#51
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:10 PM

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Alders are a stupid tree.

They start losing leaves in June but are often still green in early November. Then they just go bare overnight without ever changing colors.


Same with the mixed-breed London Plane cultivars we have lining our streets. Except they shed a bunch of bark along with the leaves starting around the summer solstice, and the leaves drop slowly from July to November. Probably the messiest tree I know of.
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#52
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:18 PM

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There are no words..

a38UuMQ.jpg
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#53
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:19 PM

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Looks like an exceptionally strong hurricane.
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#54
MossMan

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:21 PM

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This leaf debate happens every year...Just like the emerging bulbs every January...And Matt’s MLK Day chilly blasts.
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#55
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:24 PM

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This leaf debate happens every year...Just like the emerging bulbs every January...And Matt’s MLK Day chilly blasts.


No really a debate. You can see yellow leaves and leaves falling every year in late summer.

I just said alders are stupid and make a mess for months.

#56
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:25 PM

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Y’all have to watch this.

https://mobile.twitt...341641398300672
  • Deweydog, hawkstwelve and nwsnow like this
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#57
MossMan

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:26 PM

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There are no words..

a38UuMQ.jpg

Jim Cantore is so not happy that it will most likely avoid a US mainland landfall...At least as a 5.
https://youtu.be/48r4IQTB3NE
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#58
MossMan

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:28 PM

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No really a debate. You can see yellow leaves and leaves falling every year in late summer.

I just said alders are stupid and make a mess for months.

Others will say this is due to our extreme drought and that leaves are not supposed to fall until October.

#59
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:29 PM

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Jim Cantore is so not happy that it will most likely avoid a US mainland landfall...At least as a 5.
https://youtu.be/48r4IQTB3NE


I’m dead. :lol:
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#60
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:31 PM

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F*ck trees.

F*ck Jim Cantore.

F*ck this climate.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#61
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:48 PM

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Lots of maples are dropping brown leaves here now. But yet the trees at our cabin in the Cariboo at 3600ft are showing no fall color. Confusing times.
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#62
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:54 PM

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Accidentally deleted that post a second ago with the link lol. Not trying to get into a page filling annual leaf debate or anything just an observation.

#63
Timmy

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:56 PM

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Looks like an exceptionally strong hurricane.

no, no words

#64
Jginmartini

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:01 PM

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Alders are a stupid tree.
They start losing leaves in June but are often still green in early November. Then they just go bare overnight without ever changing colors.


Your messing with my Alder smoke salmon resource!
Theirs always got to be a first to bail early :)
Layman’s terms please 😁

#65
Jginmartini

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:08 PM

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There are no words..a38UuMQ.jpg


That would make a neat mirror wall picture!

Can’t even imagine as I freak out at a 60 mph gust! Add pounding rain, storm surge, a noise that is freighting all by itself and hidden tornadoes....NO TANkS
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Layman’s terms please 😁

#66
Jginmartini

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:12 PM

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Accidentally deleted that post a second ago with the link lol. Not trying to get into a page filling annual leaf debate or anything just an observation.


Leaf debates can be used to gradually acclimate us to the more serious debates for this upcoming winter season and you are entitled to your opinion :)
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Layman’s terms please 😁

#67
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:36 PM

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There are no words..
 

 

I believe we call that a "circle" in English.    :)


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#68
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:55 PM

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It’s a pretty storm.
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#69
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:12 PM

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GFS has been slowly shifting westward with its track over the last 4 runs... here is the 00Z run.

 

gfs-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-7738800.png


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#70
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:20 PM

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Will anything be left of Grand Bahama Island after this? The Cat5 is m about to (essentially) stall out over the island for the next 8-12 hours.

Impossible to imagine what those people are going through right now.
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#71
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:24 PM

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GFS has been slowly shifting westward with its track over the last 4 runs... here is the 00Z run.

gfs-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-7738800.png


Jesus that’s a close call.
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#72
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:31 PM

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That hurricane is moving awfully slow.


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#73
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:32 PM

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Some of these videos are hard to watch.

https://mobile.twitt...286205806600192
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#74
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:53 PM

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Had some moderate rain showers up at Sproat Lake and Nanoose today, looks like Victoria was sunny and warm the entire time.



#75
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:55 PM

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Had some moderate rain showers up at Sproat Lake and Nanoose today, looks like Victoria was sunny and warm the entire time.

0.04” here.

#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 10:04 PM

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Looking at the satellite... Dorian appears to have almost stopped moving right over Grand Bahama.   

 

And the 00Z ECMWF shows that on Tuesday evening its just slightly north of there.   

 

Hard to imagine a cat 5 storm parked will be parked over the same spot for the next 24 hours and then still pounding them with the southern bands even 2 days from now.   I can't believe people stayed.


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#77
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 September 2019 - 10:44 PM

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What a complete nightmare for anyone on Grand Bahama Island. Wow.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#78
hawkstwelve

Posted 02 September 2019 - 01:17 AM

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Dorian is moving W at just 1 mph. Wow. Worse case scenario for Grand Bahama Island.

Winds down to 165mph. ("Down" feels weird when paired with 165mph.)
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#79
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 September 2019 - 04:17 AM

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You would think Jeffrey Epstein lived on Grand Bahama given how God is destroying it right now. Maybe Bill Clinton vacationed there once. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#80
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 September 2019 - 05:19 AM

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There’s been some pretty intense hurricanes I can recall in my lifetime, but I honestly am starting to believe this could end up being the worst of my lifetime. Really hope that doesn’t slam the SE US too.
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#81
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 September 2019 - 05:23 AM

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Morning low of 57 here. Latest gfs run has a little rain on Friday, but nothing until D10 when the run shows a big fall type storm moving in.

#82
Jginmartini

Posted 02 September 2019 - 06:33 AM

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Currently at my low of 55*
Sunny
Layman’s terms please 😁

#83
Jginmartini

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:02 AM

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That hurricane is moving awfully slow.


Painfully slow!!!
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Layman’s terms please 😁

#84
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:07 AM

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There might not be anything left of the Bahamas by time that happens.


Absolutely horrible what's happening right now. 😰

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#85
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:12 AM

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There are no words..

a38UuMQ.jpg

That would make a neat mirror wall picture!

Can’t even imagine as I freak out at a 60 mph gust! Add pounding rain, storm surge, a noise that is freighting all by itself and hidden tornadoes....NO TANkS


The more beautiful they look, the more destructive they are. I've always said I want to experience another Columbus Day Storm but deep down, I think I'll pass on it.
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#86
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:12 AM

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The eye has filled with clouds recently.
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#87
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:17 AM

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Mostly sunny Labor Day morning here.



#88
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:20 AM

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The more beautiful they look, the more destructive they are. I've always said I want to experience another Columbus Day Storm but deep down, I think I'll pass on it.

The effects of a storm like that happening in 2019 would be worse than if it had happened in 1962 across the PNW. Windstorms can be a cool phenomenon but a serious windstorm is not a good thing, 12/14/06 was the last serious one.
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#89
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:35 AM

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The good news is that Grand Bahama is largely unpopulated except for Freeport on southwest side of the island... and it appears that Freeport will be largely spared as Dorian is now starting to move north.   Freeport is currently reporting a 60 mph wind.

 

Some places on the island to the east of Freeport were actually in the eye of hurricane for about 12 hours.   That would have been crazy to experience.


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#90
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:56 AM

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Got down to 49 last night. First low in the 40s in about 10 days. Still a couple degrees above average. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#91
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2019 - 08:08 AM

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The good news is that Grand Bahama is largely unpopulated except for Freeport on southwest side of the island... and it appears that Freeport will be largely spared as Dorian is now starting to move north. Freeport is currently reporting a 60 mph wind.

Some places on the island to the east of Freeport were actually in the eye of hurricane for about 12 hours. That would have been crazy to experience.

Is Freeport in the southern edge of the eye? The forecast I saw was for winds 100-130mph later today.

#92
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2019 - 08:22 AM

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Is Freeport in the southern edge of the eye? The forecast I saw was for winds 100-130mph later today.

 

 

Its not in the eye... its about 30-40 miles southwest of the eye wall and the storm is inching northward now and not towards Freeport.  

 

Its still going to be a mess there... but they are likely to escape catastrophic damage like Marsh Harbour experienced.



#93
van city

Posted 02 September 2019 - 08:47 AM

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The good news is that Grand Bahama is largely unpopulated except for Freeport on southwest side of the island... and it appears that Freeport will be largely spared as Dorian is now starting to move north.   Freeport is currently reporting a 60 mph wind.
 
Some places on the island to the east of Freeport were actually in the eye of hurricane for about 12 hours.   That would have been crazy to experience.


Freeport Tim.
https://twitter.com/...4943546372?s=19

#94
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:07 AM

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65F now in downtown Springfield.  Got down to 54F last night.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#95
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:10 AM

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At this point Dorian could be considered a cutoff low.



#96
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:11 AM

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Its not in the eye... its about 30-40 miles southwest of the eye wall and the storm is inching northward now and not towards Freeport.

Its still going to be a mess there... but they are likely to escape catastrophic damage like Marsh Harbour experienced.

Damage is pretty bad in Freeport right now unfortunately. Many parts of the city have been inundated by water.

#97
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:20 AM

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Damage is pretty bad in Freeport right now unfortunately. Many parts of the city have been inundated by water.


Ahhhh... storm surge. I was focusing on wind.

I suppose the constant strong wind from the NW is piling up the water into the north side of town.

#98
snow_wizard

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:23 AM

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Y’all have to watch this.

https://mobile.twitt...341641398300672

 

First time I've ever seen a loop like that.  This has to be the most perfect hurricane ever!  Absolutely no imperfection or wobble in the rotation.


  • Timmy_Supercell and Frontal Snowsquall like this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 

Coldest Low = 28

Lows 32 or below = 14

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#99
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:54 AM

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Gorgeous day... sunny from the start and up to 71 now.

#100
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 September 2019 - 10:01 AM

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The effects of a storm like that happening in 2019 would be worse than if it had happened in 1962 across the PNW. Windstorms can be a cool phenomenon but a serious windstorm is not a good thing, 12/14/06 was the last serious one.


Yeah, it would be catastrophic here on the West Coast.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!






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