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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#1151
dolt

Posted 11 September 2019 - 01:45 PM

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Not to be persnickety, but I believe this is incorrect as well. Not even the foreshortening effect of the telephoto lens would put the funnel anywhere near Creswell. More like a few miles northeast of Coburg.


I meant coburg. Maybe too much internet for me today. Btw, one of the local tv mets was storm chasing and the pic was taken from his passenger.

#1152
Jesse

Posted 11 September 2019 - 01:56 PM

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Nice day here in the west metro as well.

Wonder if September 11 in 1949 was a nice day... possible analog?

EDIT: It was 71/47 at PDX with no precipitation. Probably a pretty nice day.


Sounds inanely arctic.

#1153
Jginmartini

Posted 11 September 2019 - 01:57 PM

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That zone of extreme north Lane County up to about Albany is one of the prime spots for Willamette Valley tornadoes. I believe quite a few have been seen around Brownsville in the past.


http://www.tornadohi.../tornado/Oregon

Attached Files


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Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm DENIED!!!

#1154
Front Ranger

Posted 11 September 2019 - 02:22 PM

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No 9/11 jokes from Dewey?  :huh:


It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#1155
Phil

Posted 11 September 2019 - 02:24 PM

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Sure, I understand that you are going to have a limit on the heat capacity of H2O affecting the highs but as we head into Autumn, solar power is a losing its battle and having higher moisture content might be enough to slightly offset the decaying solar energy. Wouldn't this possibly raise low and high surface temps above historical average during the Fall and Winter months?

Again, I'm referencing specifically to the effects in the PNW.


The laws of thermodynamics/heat transfer don’t change from season to season or region to region. :)

To oversimplify it a bit, increasing the relative moisture content within the lower boundary layer will increase the thermal capacity of the airmass, such that it’s heats/cools more slowly given the same amount of work done on it via solar radiation. You don’t just “start out from a warmer benchmark” the next day after a warm/humid night and just warm from there at the same rate as if the air mass were unchanged. The more humid airmass will warm more slowly. Apart from the individual molecular dynamics there will (possibly) be more clouds, and more rainfall to evaporate, etc, all of which involves latent heat absorption or the reflection of solar radiation which reduces the specific heating of the surface/near surface layer.
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Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#1156
MossMan

Posted 11 September 2019 - 03:46 PM

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Take it!

Perfect! Now I just need to find a spare hour or two to get back to the lake and get it on the trailer...Not an easy thing finding time these days!

Currently cloudy and 66 degrees.

#1157
jcmcgaffey

Posted 11 September 2019 - 04:05 PM

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Looks like the cooler wetter summer east of the mountains has hurt the apple crops:(

https://komonews.com...t-apple-harvest

#1158
Jesse

Posted 11 September 2019 - 04:09 PM

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Looks like the cooler wetter summer east of the mountains has hurt the apple crops:(

https://komonews.com...t-apple-harvest


Except that’s not actually what the article says. This should all make for great pointless debate material, though:)

#1159
Deweydog

Posted 11 September 2019 - 04:41 PM

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No 9/11 jokes from Dewey? :huh:


Not on 9/11 you sick f*ck.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1160
Front Ranger

Posted 11 September 2019 - 05:01 PM

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Not on 9/11 you sick f*ck.


Too timely?

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#1161
jcmcgaffey

Posted 11 September 2019 - 05:02 PM

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Except that’s not actually what the article says. This should all make for great pointless debate material, though:)

. It was a poorly written article but it indicated the cooler wetter weather caused fungal problems. They then said there were also benefits though to that weather but gave no examples.

#1162
Jesse

Posted 11 September 2019 - 05:29 PM

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. It was a poorly written article but it indicated the cooler wetter weather caused fungal problems. They then said there were also benefits though to that weather but gave no examples.


It also said that it was only for cider apples specifically. Not the regular apples you find in the produce section, which did well with the more average weather this summer. Then they mentioned that the changes to the cider apples wasn’t going to decrease cider production, there might just be different varieties this year. They also said the fungal issues were preferable to the problems caused by heat and drought.

Kind of seemed like a pointless article overall.

#1163
Jginmartini

Posted 11 September 2019 - 05:58 PM

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. It was a poorly written article but it indicated the cooler wetter weather caused fungal problems. They then said there were also benefits though to that weather but gave no examples.


My cider might taste different although just like wine I would never know the difference.
Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm DENIED!!!

#1164
High Desert Mat?

Posted 11 September 2019 - 05:58 PM

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It also said that it was only for cider apples specifically. Not the regular apples you find in the produce section, which did well with the more average weather this summer. Then they mentioned that the changes to the cider apples wasn’t going to decrease cider production, there might just be different varieties this year. They also said the fungal issues were preferable to the problems caused by heat and drought.

Kind of seemed like a pointless article overall.


Take the word apples out and you could be talking about busters girlfriend or wife, whatever he has.

#1165
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:18 PM

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Precip maps? Tim!


Also, the Euro has a decent hurricane headed for the Bahamas in week 2.


Not again.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_11.png

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#1166
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:19 PM

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Probably overdone... but still looks wet. And really wet up there as expected. Yet somehow there is not a single rainy day for the Seattle area on this run. Most of the precip in this area comes on Thursday night and Saturday night.

ecmwf-washington-total-precip-inch-88080


Good regional soaking.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#1167
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:21 PM

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http://www.tornadohi.../tornado/Oregon


Washington County donut hole.
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#1168
TT-SEA

Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:33 PM

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Good regional soaking.


That's what she said.
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#1169
Jesse

Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:04 PM

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Take the word apples out and you could be talking about busters girlfriend or wife, whatever he has.


I think a daughter.

#1170
jcmcgaffey

Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:54 PM

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It also said that it was only for cider apples specifically. Not the regular apples you find in the produce section, which did well with the more average weather this summer. Then they mentioned that the changes to the cider apples wasn’t going to decrease cider production, there might just be different varieties this year. They also said the fungal issues were preferable to the problems caused by heat and drought.

Kind of seemed like a pointless article overall.

I see they updated the article with the rest of the info you read. Originally they only had the first paragraph when I read and I was thinking this is a terrible article but with all the info it makes it a little better.

#1171
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:56 PM

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Eagerly awaiting an end to this drought, now that it's getting close the GFS has scaled back tomorrow's rainfall in typical fashion.



#1172
Jginmartini

Posted 11 September 2019 - 08:29 PM

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Eagerly awaiting an end to this drought, now that it's getting close the GFS has scaled back tomorrow's rainfall in typical fashion.

Sad, still looks like a pretty storm though. Looks like the precipitation for us starts late Thursday or overnight into Friday

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Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm DENIED!!!

#1173
TacomaWaWx

Posted 11 September 2019 - 08:48 PM

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Gfs overall just looks cool and wet at times Friday through Tuesday. Shows some warmer nice weather after a pretty solid soaking for the region if it verifies.

#1174
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 11 September 2019 - 09:01 PM

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Sad, still looks like a pretty storm though. Looks like the precipitation for us starts late Thursday or overnight into Friday

 

Who knows, maybe it will overperform with the warmer coastal waters. It's been happening a lot to the south of here, you'd think northern areas would get in on it at some point.


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#1175
hawkstwelve

Posted 11 September 2019 - 09:26 PM

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Looks like the cooler wetter summer east of the mountains has hurt the apple crops:(
https://komonews.com...t-apple-harvest


Abby Acone is relatively new over at Komo.

Her writing is all over the place which leads each article to not have a definitive conclusion. She also moonlights as a pseudo meteorologist and tries to incorporate that into her reporting in round-about ways.

Anyhow, shame to hear about the non-affected cider.

#1176
TacomaWaWx

Posted 12 September 2019 - 05:54 AM

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Beautiful sunrise this morning out ahead of the frontal system. 54 degrees this morning. Good for the coolest morning this month, and the coolest morning since 8/26.

#1177
El_Nina

Posted 12 September 2019 - 06:16 AM

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First clear morning in awhile.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#1178
Omegaraptor

Posted 12 September 2019 - 06:32 AM

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51°F or so, this morning was foggy but it just cleared out. HIO bottomed at 49.
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2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 15.52”, which is 5.19” below normal as of September 7


#1179
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 12 September 2019 - 06:34 AM

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Moisture from the remnants of two typhoons could make things interesting this weekend for the PNW.
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#1180
MossMan

Posted 12 September 2019 - 06:52 AM

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Currently 58 and mostly cloudy. The sky looks a little turbulent this morning.

#1181
TT-SEA

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:03 AM

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Moisture from the remnants of two typhoons could make things interesting this weekend for the PNW.

 

Maybe up in SW BC.

 

Just looks like a pretty standard early fall front coming through here on Saturday night.   Saturday looks dry and the main rain band moves out on Sunday morning.



#1182
Jesse

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:19 AM

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A blob-defying 49 degrees here this morning.

#1183
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:20 AM

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Big shift in Invest 95L.

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

The most recent ECMWF model has a dramatic shift in Invest 95L track. Gone is any hint of Gulf of Mexico, instead developing a powerful Hurricane off the Southeast Coast in 3-5 days. This is a surprising turn of events.

https://mobile.twitt...096009259945985

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#1184
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:21 AM

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Maybe up in SW BC.

Just looks like a pretty standard early fall front coming through here on Saturday night. Saturday looks dry and the main rain band moves out on Sunday morning.

Looks like a less wet version of what we saw up here last September. There will likely be some decent totals in the mountains but not too crazy for September

#1185
Jesse

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:25 AM

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Looks like a less wet version of what we saw up here last September. There will likely be some decent totals in the mountains but not too crazy for September


A downer considering how much those warm waters are probably juicing up the fronts.

#1186
Omegaraptor

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:28 AM

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Attached File  70394DE2-C5F4-4A6F-A953-38D17338AAFA.jpeg   132.31KB   0 downloads

Here’s a view of the fog between me (clear skies here) and the West Hills. Is this an inversion? Seems a bit early to be getting them.
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2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 15.52”, which is 5.19” below normal as of September 7


#1187
TT-SEA

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:31 AM

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attachicon.gif70394DE2-C5F4-4A6F-A953-38D17338AAFA.jpeg

Here’s a view of the fog between me (clear skies here) and the West Hills. Is this an inversion? Seems a bit early to be getting them.

 

I see that type of thing in all seasons down in the valley here.    And those marine layer days in the middle of the summer are the result of an inversion.    Its not uncommon for there to be a marine layer inversion even on the longest day of the year.

 

We typically refer to the inversion season as the time of year when those all day, cold fog events can happen.   But inversions can happen at any time of the year.


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#1188
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:38 AM

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59F in Springfield. Looks like a beautiful day on the way.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1189
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:45 AM

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Looks like the cooler wetter summer east of the mountains has hurt the apple crops:(

https://komonews.com...t-apple-harvest

Actually not, the apple crop is supposed to be 18% more than last year overall.  From the same article:  "In Eastern Washington, the spring and summer weather was favorable for growing apples you find in grocery stores. In fact, according to the Washington State Tree Fruit Association, the crop forecast is projected to be 137 million 40 pound boxes statewide. That’s an increase of more than 17 percent from the 2017-2018 season. You can find these apples in grocery stores in the next few months.


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#1190
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:45 AM

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Was some dense fog in the Silverton area this morning, but bright sunshine here on the river in Salem. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1191
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:47 AM

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Yeah the apples have gone gangbusters down here. The old apple tree behind my shop is loaded and my dwarf tree set fruit for the first time this year. My dad's apple trees are loaded so much he is having to try and support their branches so they don't break. Usually cold weather in March is great for setting fruit. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1192
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:48 AM

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Looks like a warm end of the month. As long as it turns for October I can handle it, especially after the rain we will have gotten. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1193
Jesse

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:59 AM

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Looks like a warm end of the month. As long as it turns for October I can handle it, especially after the rain we will have gotten.


Yeah. Highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s would be nice for a week or so. Let’s hope it doesn’t overstay its welcome or go all 1974 on us.



#1194
MossMan

Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:03 AM

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The apple tree at my old place would produce insane amounts of apples every other year. Same with the plum tree...with the plums.

#1195
Deweydog

Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:12 AM

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Yeah. Highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s would be nice for a week or so. Let’s hope it doesn’t overstay its welcome or go all 1974 on us.


Most of the tools I’m looking at, with UHI, blobias and low solar weighted to an appreciable degree, suggest a cool down is likely after a warm up.

Rest easy, my friend.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1196
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:13 AM

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PDX fell all the way to 53 this morning. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1197
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:30 AM

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The apple tree at my old place would produce insane amounts of apples every other year. Same with the plum tree...with the plums.

Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes.

#1198
Jesse

Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:33 AM

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Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes.

 

My guess was too much drizzle.



#1199
Jesse

Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:52 AM

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12z GFS is slower to move the ridge in. That would be nice.


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#1200
BhamMe

Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:52 AM

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Probably overdone... but still looks wet.    And really wet up there as expected.    Yet somehow there is not a single rainy day for the Seattle area on this run.    Most of the precip in this area comes on Thursday night and Saturday night.

 

ecmwf-washington-total-precip-inch-88080

Goodness the Canadian border area looks wet, dryer toward Bellingham. I better get my run in ASAP!







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