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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Requiem

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Comparing and contrasting, I’d take North Bend’s Wx in a heartbeat. That’s what autumn is supposed to be like, instead of the bullshït I’m stuck with.

 

rkRCSRt.jpg

TWS2aHF.jpg

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Looks like some areas around Hillsboro picked up 2" of rain yesterday evening. WSU Vancouver picked up almost 1.5" with the heavy showers. 

 

We ended up with 0.45" yesterday. Up to 1.58" on the month. 

 

Average for the month is 2.81" so we are well on our way to average. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Comparing and contrasting, I’d take North Bend’s Wx in a heartbeat. That’s what autumn is supposed to be like, instead of the bullshït I’m stuck with.rkRCSRt.jpgTWS2aHF.jpg

I’m glad fall is getting started early this year so I can actually see rain before November. Hopefully we can actually get precipitation this year and this September isn’t just a tease.

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I’m glad fall is getting started early this year so I can actually see rain before November. Hopefully we can actually get precipitation this year and this September isn’t just a tease.

(Serious post this time).

 

Both statistical and dynamic methods I’ve been experimenting with yield analogs with a wet/stormy pattern clustered in the January/midwinter timeframe (not necessarily a cold pattern..more niño-like, but still).

 

However, O/N/D seems to average on the dry side irrespective of how I tweak things. Winter overall tends to lean dry as well. But the few cases where this failed were extremely wet (and warm too). Seems to be an inverse correlation between temps and precipitation with the boundary conditions unfolding.

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(Serious post this time).

Both statistical and dynamic methods I’ve been experimenting with yield analogs with a wet/stormy pattern clustered in the January/midwinter timeframe (not necessarily a cold pattern..more niño-like, but still).

However, O/N/D seems to average on the dry side irrespective of how I tweak things. Winter overall tends to lean dry as well. But the few cases where this failed were extremely wet (and warm too). Seems to be an inverse correlation between temps and precipitation with the boundary conditions unfolding.

Thank you for the extra info. Great post.

 

Also, 94/74 with humidity when it’s almost mid-September sounds awful. At this point I’m more than ready for summer to be over.

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At least NPAC analogs are easier this winter. Plenty of +PMM/+PDO/modest modoki structures to select from in the modern era.

 

Less easy for solar/seasonal cycle of intraseasonal variability given what’s happening in the SH. Still not sure how that will play out.

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At least NPAC analogs are easier this winter. Plenty of +PMM/+PDO/modest modoki structures to select from in the modern era.

Less easy for solar/seasonal cycle of intraseasonal variability given what’s happening in the SH. Still not sure how that will play out.

Any ideas on above/below average temperature yet, or still too early?

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Looks like some areas around Hillsboro picked up 2" of rain yesterday evening. WSU Vancouver picked up almost 1.5" with the heavy showers. 

 

We ended up with 0.45" yesterday. Up to 1.58" on the month. 

 

Average for the month is 2.81" so we are well on our way to average. 

 

The Streets of Tanasbourne, literally across from my Landmark Apartments had more rain at once than I have seen during just about the whole 11 years or so I lived in Washington County. (1999-2010)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I’m glad fall is getting started early this year so I can actually see rain before November. Hopefully we can actually get precipitation this year and this September isn’t just a tease.

September 2013 was very wet. Then October thru December were incredibly dry.
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At least we had two arctic blasts that winter. February 2014 had like 7” of snow if I recall.

 

Close to where my last address was, had 8-10" accumulations in that Feb snowstorm, pretty close to 2008 depths.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Showers not moving in your typical NE motion today, more of a rotating formation around the sound with the trough moving out of the area.

 

Yeah showers down in this area coming in from the NW moving SE. Can't say I've had all too many thunder occurrences from that direction but we will see.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looks like we will have a warm end of the month.

 

Hey Phil how about throwing us some of your early analogs.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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First rumble of the day here.

 

Sky looks like there might be some of that here this afternoon.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Pretty soon I could be hearing rumbles..

 

vayymNd.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looks like a bunch of small cells all over the sw part of the state.

 

Today would push me a little above my average thunder days in a year.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I don’t know how much I’m up to, because I don’t have a rain gauge, but I strongly doubt it’s over 0.2”.

 

My guess is that we don’t get any rain today.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if you saw some rain considering how heavy and slow these showers are.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Some areas here in north Seattle got over an inch just he few hours this morning with that heavy stationary band of rain. Everett supposedly got over 3” yesterday.

 

 

Looks like KPAE is at .88 for the month.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like KPAE is at .88 for the month.

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/this-is-not-a-typo-weather-spotter-reports-335-inches-of-rain-in-everett

Im glad my wife was home sick yesterday, she would have caught up in this fun since she works right in that area.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/this-is-not-a-typo-weather-spotter-reports-335-inches-of-rain-in-everett

Im glad my wife was home sick yesterday, she would have caught up in this fun since she works right in that area.

Crazy!

 

Very localized it appears.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Flatiron mentioned September 2013. Unbelievable month, absolutely blew away some very old monthly rainfall records. It was followed by a very pleasant October.

 

The winter that followed was pretty odd. One of the coldest Decembers on record from about Eugene south and east, and then the great February event. But literally nothing else. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Saturday looks like it could potentially be a pretty nice day down here in NW Oregon.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Washington County donut hole again this winter while the rest of the region gets buried in snow. Calling it now, 100%.

 

Hopefully not! Have faith, things will work out.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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That’s crazy. Just a little north of here has done a lot better.

 

I’m pretty happy with my .70” though all things considered. And depending where showers set up later it could bump me closer to an inch.

 

The showers yesterday were definitely some of the most intense I've ever seen in this area. Seems like a number of spots around the region had 0.75"+ in an hour, I was pretty close.

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Almost totally sunny around the entire Puget Sound region this afternoon... all of the activity is to the south and also to the northeast as the models showed.    A really nice afternoon.

20190910-153621.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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