September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Big shift in Invest 95L.

 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

 

The most recent ECMWF model has a dramatic shift in Invest 95L track. Gone is any hint of Gulf of Mexico, instead developing a powerful Hurricane off the Southeast Coast in 3-5 days. This is a surprising turn of events.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1172096009259945985

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe up in SW BC.

 

Just looks like a pretty standard early fall front coming through here on Saturday night. Saturday looks dry and the main rain band moves out on Sunday morning.

Looks like a less wet version of what we saw up here last September. There will likely be some decent totals in the mountains but not too crazy for September

[Jesse]

Looks like a less wet version of what we saw up here last September. There will likely be some decent totals in the mountains but not too crazy for September

A downer considering how much those warm waters are probably juicing up the fronts.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Here’s a view of the fog between me (clear skies here) and the West Hills. Is this an inversion? Seems a bit early to be getting them.

[TT-SEA]

70394DE2-C5F4-4A6F-A953-38D17338AAFA.jpeg

 

Here’s a view of the fog between me (clear skies here) and the West Hills. Is this an inversion? Seems a bit early to be getting them.

 

I see that type of thing in all seasons down in the valley here.    And those marine layer days in the middle of the summer are the result of an inversion.    Its not uncommon for there to be a marine layer inversion even on the longest day of the year.

 

We typically refer to the inversion season as the time of year when those all day, cold fog events can happen.   But inversions can happen at any time of the year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

59F in Springfield. Looks like a beautiful day on the way.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks like the cooler wetter summer east of the mountains has hurt the apple crops:(

 

https://komonews.com/news/local/local-cider-makers-face-challenges-from-the-latest-apple-harvest

Actually not, the apple crop is supposed to be 18% more than last year overall.  From the same article:  "In Eastern Washington, the spring and summer weather was favorable for growing apples you find in grocery stores. In fact, according to the Washington State Tree Fruit Association, the crop forecast is projected to be 137 million 40 pound boxes statewide. That’s an increase of more than 17 percent from the 2017-2018 season. You can find these apples in grocery stores in the next few months.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was some dense fog in the Silverton area this morning, but bright sunshine here on the river in Salem. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the apples have gone gangbusters down here. The old apple tree behind my shop is loaded and my dwarf tree set fruit for the first time this year. My dad's apple trees are loaded so much he is having to try and support their branches so they don't break. Usually cold weather in March is great for setting fruit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a warm end of the month. As long as it turns for October I can handle it, especially after the rain we will have gotten. 

[Jesse]

Looks like a warm end of the month. As long as it turns for October I can handle it, especially after the rain we will have gotten.

Yeah. Highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s would be nice for a week or so. Let’s hope it doesn’t overstay its welcome or go all 1974 on us.

[MossMan]

The apple tree at my old place would produce insane amounts of apples every other year. Same with the plum tree...with the plums.

[Deweydog]

Yeah. Highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s would be nice for a week or so. Let’s hope it doesn’t overstay its welcome or go all 1974 on us.

Most of the tools I’m looking at, with UHI, blobias and low solar weighted to an appreciable degree, suggest a cool down is likely after a warm up.

 

Rest easy, my friend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX fell all the way to 53 this morning. 

[ShawniganLake]

The apple tree at my old place would produce insane amounts of apples every other year. Same with the plum tree...with the plums.

Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes.

[Jesse]

Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes.

 

My guess was too much drizzle.

[Jesse]

12z GFS is slower to move the ridge in. That would be nice.

[BhamMe]

Probably overdone... but still looks wet.    And really wet up there as expected.    Yet somehow there is not a single rainy day for the Seattle area on this run.    Most of the precip in this area comes on Thursday night and Saturday night.

 

Goodness the Canadian border area looks wet, dryer toward Bellingham. I better get my run in ASAP!

[ShawniganLake]

A bit of rain here this morning

[TacomaWaWx]

12z GFS is slower to move the ridge in. That would be nice.

Looks slightly wetter on this run as well overall.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice morning here in Tacoma, high clouds just starting to move in more from the west. 63 degrees currently.

[Omegaraptor]

 

12z GFS with the first batch of rain... the infamous Tualatin Valley/Washington County Donut Hole makes an appearance.

 

But then again every GFS run changes the precip amounts.

[Jesse]

12z GFS with the first batch of rain... the infamous Tualatin Valley/Washington County Donut Hole makes an appearance.

But then again every GFS run changes the precip amounts.

Well there’s a reason they call it the Failailington Valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At 1.8" of rain on the month, average for the month is 2.81, I think we shall get there. 

[MossMan]

Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes.

Yeah I did one severe prune on them one time in 10yrs that I was there. Otherwise I did nothing with them so probably my bad.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF slows down the front on Saturday night even more... and in fact its really a Sunday event now and that day looks pretty wet.     Much better on Monday with just scattered showers and more sun.  

 

And then ridging starts building in and its basically dry from Tuesday onward.

[Kayla]

Quite the ridge on the 12z ECMWF. 585 heights north of Central Alberta. Pretty ugly looking pattern country wide.

 

Likely due to those humid inducing water temps.

[Jesse]

Quite the ridge on the 12z ECMWF. 585 heights north of Central Alberta. Pretty ugly looking pattern country wide.

 

Likely due to those humid inducing water temps.

 

That's a phat ridge.

[TT-SEA]

76 and sunny here... nice day.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

76 and sunny here... nice day.

Beautiful day out here as well. Perfect weather to have lunch outside.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went to the park for my noontime constitutional. Quite balmy. 

[Timmy Supercell]

This is going to be a great evening to stroll by Lake Ewauna. Hopefully not too many midges though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

79F in Creswell. Beautiful late summer day.

[Timmy Supercell]

F2496B19-17FD-4F55-8160-091DB2B52D2D.png

 

12z GFS with the first batch of rain... the infamous Tualatin Valley/Washington County Donut Hole makes an appearance.

 

But then again every GFS run changes the precip amounts.

 

I hope some of this later extends to the east sides for me. C'mon I have seen somewhat decent Sep/Oct rains before in this area, non-convective of course.

[Jesse]

79F in Creswell. Beautiful late summer day.

Today is the 12th day of Fall.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s 60F and there’s a 30% chance that it’s already raining.

[Phil]

Big shift in Invest 95L.

 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

 

The most recent ECMWF model has a dramatic shift in Invest 95L track. Gone is any hint of Gulf of Mexico, instead developing a powerful Hurricane off the Southeast Coast in 3-5 days. This is a surprising turn of events.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1172096009259945985

And a second one right behind it. Lol.

 

Swamp water is out of control..seems any t-storm could randomly blow up into a hurricane in this pattern.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!!!!

[Front Ranger]

Went to the park for my noontime constitutional. Quite balmy. 

 

Zen yoga?

[TT-SEA]

80 and sunny here.