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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

rain wind snow lightning east wind
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#151
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 03 September 2019 - 08:49 AM

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Looking more like just a transitory trough and a return to ridging next week.

Hope it works out. September ridges are usually beautiful.

 

I've had a few years where September was actually my driest month. 


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 11.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#152
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 08:51 AM

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Warm days and cool evenings, I love it. I would figure some of the cold guys would like it too as September and October snow in Alaska bode well for us later on... in a very unscientific way that weirdly works.

 

Stormy, early hitting falls locally have a pretty good track record too. 


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#153
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:04 AM

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Gfs still looks a bit rainy early next week. Warmer temps following after that headed into mid September.

#154
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:06 AM

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Stormy, early hitting falls locally have a pretty good track record too.

I’m hoping for a stormy early hitting fall as well, but I wouldn’t mind getting some nice weather in September either imo. Hopefully this rain pans out early next week.
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#155
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:11 AM

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I’m hoping for a stormy early hitting fall as well, but I wouldn’t mind getting some nice weather in September either imo. Hopefully this rain pans out early next week.


Yeah but stormy weather is nice weather in my book. That’s the problem with subjective/qualitative value based descriptions I guess. 🤷🏻‍♂️
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#156
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:19 AM

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Yeah but stormy weather is nice weather in my book. That’s the problem with subjective/qualitative value based descriptions I guess. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I like stormy rainy weather as well, I actually like going out when it rains in the winter. Either way wether it’s a 75 and sunny day, or a 55 and rainy day in September it’s beautiful here in any weather and I’m going to enjoy it. The only weather I dislike is hot weather.
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#157
Phil

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:26 AM

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Stormy, early hitting falls locally have a pretty good track record too.


Well that’s probably not in the cards this year, so I suppose it’s on to the Siberian Snowcover/October psychic pattern hoodoo stuff. Lol.
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#158
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:26 AM

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Last time I had a nocturnal storm in September (not counting mid summer) was on 09/17/2013, so that's a pretty uncommon occurrence in K-Falls.

 

gZVMpKr.png

 

Most likely it won't be as exciting as the one I had on 08/10, chances of stronger convection sharply drop this time of year.


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 11.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#159
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:27 AM

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Well that’s probably not in the cards this year, so I suppose it’s on to the Siberian Snowcover/October psychic pattern hoodoo stuff. Lol.


Lol
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#160
Deweydog

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:31 AM

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Happy summer!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#161
Phil

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:36 AM

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Lol


Probably not for the reasons you think. Wavelengths are quite long/winter-like for so early in the season..but given the structure of the (intraseasonal) tropical forcing and seasonal cycle, the result should be of the warm/dry variety in the NW to open the autumn season.

If we had a more summer-like wavetrain right now, the result would likely be of the cool/troughy variety. Or at least more-so than what is upcoming for this subseasonal interval.
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#162
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:42 AM

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Probably not for the reasons you think. Wavelengths are quite long/winter-like for so early in the season..but given the structure of the tropical forcing and seasonal cycle, the result should be of the warm/dry variety in the NW to open the autumn season.

If we had a more summer-like wavetrain right now, the result would likely be of the cool/troughy variety. Or at least more-so than what is upcoming for this subseasonal interval.


Thanks for the explanation. I guess it’s not like we aren’t used to ridging.

#163
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:45 AM

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Ensembles aren’t terrible.

#164
seattleweatherguy

Posted 03 September 2019 - 09:56 AM

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Well that’s probably not in the cards this year, so I suppose it’s on to the Siberian Snowcover/October psychic pattern hoodoo stuff. Lol.


So a dry fall in the cards?

#165
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2019 - 10:12 AM

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73 and sunny here... gorgeous morning with some instability clouds to the east.

#166
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 11:01 AM

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Euro kind of goes off the rails with cutoff activity in the mid-long range. GFS will probably lead the way.

#167
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2019 - 12:19 PM

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Euro kind of goes off the rails with cutoff activity in the mid-long range. GFS will probably lead the way.


What rails?

You are sort of implying that a meandering cutoff pattern is impossible even though that is exactly what we had all weekend and still have now.

FWIW... even the GFS was showing organized rain for Labor Day about a week ago which prompted me to make reservations east of the mountains. The end of result was an "off the rails" cutoff scenario that resulted in a gorgeous weekend. ;)



#168
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2019 - 12:21 PM

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The current pattern:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_1.png


12Z ECMWF at day 10:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png


Does not seem too outlandish... although it will probably change many times. It at least seems to be on the "rails" given the current pattern.

#169
Deweydog

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:08 PM

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Speaking of rails, we took the train to a Seahawks game one time. It was in 2006. Not a bad winter...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#170
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:21 PM

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79 and mostly sunny here... with some alto-cumulus floating around.    Pretty sky conditions today.



#171
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:23 PM

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Speaking of rails, we took the train to a Seahawks game one time. It was in 2006. Not a bad winter...


What rails!?! :angry:

#172
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:25 PM

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Looks like Dorian is just about done railing the Bahamas. 🇧🇸
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#173
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:28 PM

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Two years ago today the Eagle Creek Fire was really getting established. Within a day or two it was the smokiest I’ve ever seen here in town, with accumulating ash raining out of the sky one night. All with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 60s.

Today is much nicer. Clear blue skies and puffy clouds with a temp of 80 after a low of 56.
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#174
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:35 PM

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Two years ago today the Eagle Creek Fire was really getting established. Within a day or two it was the smokiest I’ve ever seen here in town, with accumulating ash raining out of the sky one night. All with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 60s.

Today is much nicer. Clear blue skies and puffy clouds with a temp of 80 after a low of 56.

 

Yup, was basically a Silent Hill-type event going down here too.  Even being indoors the AQ was awful.


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#175
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:39 PM

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Warmer day here today than I was expecting. Currently 79 degrees here.

#176
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:42 PM

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Two years ago today the Eagle Creek Fire was really getting established. Within a day or two it was the smokiest I’ve ever seen here in town, with accumulating ash raining out of the sky one night. All with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 60s.

Today is much nicer. Clear blue skies and puffy clouds with a temp of 80 after a low of 56.

We had some accumulating ash and thick orange smoke here in August of last summer. I don’t think that happened the year before, but it was still very smoky.

#177
Front Ranger

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:50 PM

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We had some accumulating ash and thick orange smoke here in August of last summer. I don’t think that happened the year before, but it was still very smoky.


My friends in Seattle definitely had accumulating ash in 2017.

Low. Solar.


#178
van city

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:54 PM

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Looks like Dorian is just about done railing the Bahamas.


Freeport!!! Tim

https://twitter.com/...0672252930?s=19

#179
Deweydog

Posted 03 September 2019 - 01:56 PM

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Freeport!!! Tim

https://twitter.com/...0672252930?s=19


Looks about right for 60 mph winds.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#180
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2019 - 02:01 PM

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Looks about right for 60 mph winds.

 

 

I liked this comment...

 

Let's build it out of aluminum they said.



#181
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 September 2019 - 02:21 PM

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Thundery here in North Cowichan
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#182
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 02:26 PM

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My friends in Seattle definitely had accumulating ash in 2017.

I think we had a tiny bit that year but I don’t remember it being bad here locally. I’m sure other places had accumulated ash that year as well, I just can only really remember it specifically being bad at my house last summer.

#183
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 02:30 PM

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Thundery here in North Cowichan

Nice, this is the first time you guys have got some t-storms up north this year right?

#184
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 September 2019 - 02:57 PM

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It’s pretty distant from where I am now. But most significant I think we’ve seen.

#185
Phil

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:14 PM

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I liked this comment...

Let's build it out of aluminum they said.


The build codes are relatively strict in the Bahamas, for obvious reasons.

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#186
Phil

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:20 PM

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Finally, we have heard back from iCyclone.

The account from Josh is jaw-dropping and heartbreaking. This guy is the toughest chaser I know..he went through all of the recent big ones, including Patricia (EPAC), super typhoon Haiyan, Matthew, etc, and apparently Dorian blew them all away..literally. Most powerful cyclone he’s experienced in his 28 years of chasing.

https://mobile.twitt...009558167142402

tTMhZk9.jpg
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#187
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:25 PM

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Looks like Dorian is just about done railing the Bahamas. 🇧🇸


The eye is making a comeback. 🌀

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

The eye of #Dorian has returned. The hurricane is quickly regaining organization tonight as it lifts northwestard away from the Bahamas.

https://mobile.twitt...020856212840450

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#188
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:27 PM

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Finally, we have heard back from iCyclone.

The account from Josh is jaw-dropping and heartbreaking. This guy is the toughest chaser I know..he went through all of the recent big ones, including Patricia (EPAC), super typhoon Haiyan, Matthew, etc, and apparently Dorian blew them all away..literally. Most powerful cyclone he’s experienced in his 28 years of chasing.

https://mobile.twitt...009558167142402

tTMhZk9.jpg


Glad he made it through.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#189
Deweydog

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:46 PM

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The eye is making a comeback. 🌀

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

The eye of #Dorian has returned. The hurricane is quickly regaining organization tonight as it lifts northwestard away from the Bahamas.

https://mobile.twitt...020856212840450


Looks more like dry air getting pulled into the storm to me.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#190
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:49 PM

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Looks like the high temp for today will be 80. 17th 80+ of the year, much better than the last 5 years.

#191
El_Nina

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:54 PM

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Looks more like dry air getting pulled into the storm to me.

shhhhhhhhhh
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#192
Jginmartini

Posted 03 September 2019 - 03:57 PM

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Topped out at 81* today at 3:40 pm
Currently 79*
Layman’s terms please 😁

#193
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 September 2019 - 04:29 PM

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Cold ocean water creates gloomy marine layers and drizzle. Warm ocean water creates deadly hurricanes and heavy rain.
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#194
Jesse

Posted 03 September 2019 - 04:47 PM

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Cold ocean water creates gloomy marine layers and drizzle. Warm ocean water creates deadly hurricanes and heavy rain.


Clearly, draining the ocean is the only answer.



#195
MossMan

Posted 03 September 2019 - 05:29 PM

MossMan

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Speaking of rails, we took the train to a Seahawks game one time. It was in 2006. Not a bad winter...

A fantastic winter!

#196
MossMan

Posted 03 September 2019 - 05:30 PM

MossMan

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Looks more like dry air getting pulled into the storm to me.

Forks.

#197
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 September 2019 - 05:47 PM

Mr Marine Layer

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Clearly, draining the ocean is the only answer.


In-between water in the 70s would be perfect.

#198
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2019 - 07:36 PM

TT-SEA

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Played 9 holes of "super-twilight" golf with my son at Mt Si Golf Course this evening. Gorgeous evening and sunset... not even the hint of a breeze out there. It was quite warm and felt humid.

20190903-174843.jpg
  • MossMan, Jginmartini and Frontal Snowsquall like this

#199
MossMan

Posted 03 September 2019 - 07:43 PM

MossMan

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Played 9 holes of "super-twilight" golf with my son at Mt Si Golf Course this evening. Gorgeous evening and sunset... not even the hint of a breeze out there. It was quite warm and felt humid.

20190903-174843.jpg

Definitely a perk of your son working at a golf course...you can pretty much play for free anywhere!

#200
El_Nina

Posted 03 September 2019 - 08:07 PM

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Cold ocean water creates gloomy marine layers and drizzle. Warm ocean water creates deadly hurricanes and heavy rain.

You could use the same argument for the air over the water.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways





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