September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Been dry here most of the afternoon so far... even had some sun breaks.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX had a south wind gust of 35mph earlier. Not bad for this early in the season.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some nice small gusts. KI2 would enjoy it.

[jakeinthevalley]

Quite a disappointment in the rain totals but a genuine breezy Fall storm. Lost power for a bit here in McMinnville earlier. My house in West Salem can be sheltered from a south wind, but with 45 mph gust at KSLE, I imagine my cottonwood trees gave me some presents for when I get home.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.28” so far, looks like some more rain is on the way from the southwest. Not as much rain as I was expecting but it’s better than it being 90 degrees out.

[Timmy Supercell]

Some nice small gusts. KI2 would enjoy it.

 

When's the next 65-70mph event...

[TT-SEA]

0.28” so far, looks like some more rain is on the way from the southwest. Not as much rain as I was expecting but it’s better than it being 90 degrees out.

 

 

 

Yeah... something to really be concerned about.    We are constantly punished by extreme heat.   Did you even have one day below 90 there since May?   

[Deweydog]

Triggered and he wasn’t even trying!

 

Light rain here.

[TT-SEA]

Triggered and he wasn’t even trying!

 

Light rain here.

 

 

At least its not 120 degrees here like usual in the second half of September.    Whew!   

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah... something to really be concerned about. We are constantly punished by extreme heat. Did you even have one day below 90 there since May?

Jesus all this rain and cooler temps have got you irritated.

[Timmy Supercell]

At least its not 120 degrees here like usual in the second half of September.    Whew!   

 

You sound like you need a drink break. 

[TT-SEA]

Jesus all this rain and cooler temps have got you irritated.

 

Jesus does not have me irritated.    

[BLI snowman]

Jesus all this rain and cooler temps have got you irritated.

 

First legitimately wet (150%+ of average) month here in two years. 

 

Rain haters have had it rough!

[TT-SEA]

First legitimately wet (150%+ of average) month here in two years.

 

Rain haters have had it rough!

 

Yeah... April of 2018 and 2019 were bone dry up here.

[Jesse]

First legitimately wet (150%+ of average) month here in two years. 

 

Rain haters have had it rough!

 

There is a class action lawsuit brewing. LOTS of pain and suffering.

[Timmy Supercell]

First legitimately wet (150%+ of average) month here in two years. 

 

Rain haters have had it rough!

 

I saw one way sooner than that, but probably because I have way lower averages than you guys. 

 

I have ran 400-500% in mid summer before.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah... April of 2018 and 2019 were bone dry up here.

 

Post-trauma!

[TT-SEA]

There is a class action lawsuit brewing. LOTS of pain and suffering.

 

We have to wait for all of your lawsuits to move through the courts first.  

[BLI snowman]

I saw one way sooner than that, but probably because I have way lower averages than you guys. 

 

I have ran 400-500% in mid summer before.

 

Even the ridiculously wet summer this year didn't quite manage that here.

[Timmy Supercell]

Even the ridiculously wet summer this year didn't quite manage that here.

 

I can only achieve it in favorable thunderstorm patterns though. The stratiform rains this summer isn't quite as impressive as some of the days I can get an easy inch out of a stray storm in July/Aug. In 2017 and 2015 I've had some straight up gullywashers.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... April of 2018 and 2019 were bone dry up here.

 

Interestingly enough, western OR was much wetter relative to normal this April, compared to western WA.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly enough, western OR was much wetter relative to normal this April, compared to western WA.

 

 

Interestingly enough... there was over 13 inches of rain here this past April compared to normal of 8 inches.    Just a tad bit wet compared to normal for this area.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad day, just breezy, pleasant temps, sunbreaks, and occasional drizzle.  

[Jesse]

Interestingly enough, western OR was much wetter relative to normal this April, compared to western WA.

 

I am still crying about it to this day.

[Timmy Supercell]

Interestingly enough, western OR was much wetter relative to normal this April, compared to western WA.

 

Yeah, mid Spring featured a few decent rainfalls at my place. 2018 was considerably drier.

[Phil]

Just so it's clear, I don't think anyone has preached that the weather patterns seen in October = what you'll see in winter.

 

The October theory that has believers and merit here is the one tied to the correlation between fall precip in the PNW and the following winter. October just happens to be the month that captures it best, being in the middle of fall.

 

Bolded winters featured significant Arctic air and/or heavy, widespread lowland snowfall.

 

Dry to very dry falls (Sep-Nov) for the PNW, back to 1940: 1943, 1944, 1952, 1957, 1961, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2018.

 

Wet to very wet falls: 1942, 1945, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1955, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1968, 1973, 1984, 1990, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2017.

 

Dry falls: 7 out of 22 (32%) delivered

Wet falls: 18 out of 22 (82%) delivered

What specific criteria are you using to define wet/dry falls and significant arctic air/snowfall? Otherwise this is meaningless, subjective gobbledygook, since you left off dozens of years, including many with significant cold/snow.

 

FWIW, I can tell right away that you’re observing a correlation to the sign/degree of AAM propagation under QBO-driven states of momentum deposition that modulate the seasonality of the NPAC jet. Nothing mysterious about it..and it’s certainly not a relationship that is confined to October.

[TT-SEA]

I am still crying about it to this day.

You cry about lots of things. Being sopping wet is actually about the only thing that does not bother you!

[TT-SEA]

Not a bad day, just breezy, pleasant temps, sunbreaks, and occasional drizzle.

About the same here. Its been dry more than its been raining today.

[Jesse]

18Z still puts a ridge over us the middle of next week, but that is followed up quickly by a retrogression and another bout of cold troughing.

 

On the other hand, the 12Z EPS seemed pretty similar to the operational Euro for next week.

[Front Ranger]

First legitimately wet (150%+ of average) month here in two years. 

 

Rain haters have had it rough!

 

5/26 to 9/8 had two days with more than .20" at PDX. That's almost 3.5 months.

 

Since 9/8, there have been four such days. Out of 10 days.

[Jesse]

Decent rain shower moving in here. Have had a high of 64 so far today after a low of 54. 

 

Some south wind gusts in the 30mph range earlier as well. Overall a very enjoyable early fall day.

[TT-SEA]

5/26 to 9/8 had two days with more than .20" at PDX. That's about 3.5 months.

 

Since 9/8, there have been four such days. Out of 10 days.

So summer is drier than fall? Interesting theory.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First batch of near pass elevation snow at the end of the 18z. 

[Jesse]

First batch of near pass elevation snow at the end of the 18z. 

 

Its a great run. I wouldn't even mind the couple sunny days in the 70s to low 80s next week if the rest of it verified!

[BLI snowman]

5/26 to 9/8 had two days with more than .20" at PDX. That's almost 3.5 months.

 

Since 9/8, there have been four such days. Out of 10 days.

 

Crazy progression!

[BLI snowman]

Its a great run. I wouldn't even mind the couple sunny days in the 70s to low 80s next week if the rest of it verified!

 

Should be only the 3rd 90-less September of the decade for PDX (2010, 2016).

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't mind some September rain if there was a fair amount of sunny, dry days mixed in. Its rained 9 days straight now out here... with almost 5 inches in the valley in that period. Tomorrow will be day 10.

 

That is not typical September weather here.

[Phil]

Some wet falls Jared missed based on NOAA ESRL reanalysis: 2014, 1986, 1977, 1975, 1963, 1951.

 

Haven’t even looked back before 1950 or into the dry years yet.

[Timmy Supercell]

The rain is like 1 mile away.

 

[Jesse]

Should be only the 3rd 90-less September of the decade for PDX (2010, 2016).

 

There have been a few runs toying with the idea of some fairly high heights/sharp ridging the last week or so of the month, but it takes something fairly exceptional to get us above 90 at that point. Odds are we're in the clear, but you never know...