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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Requiem

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We’re approaching 200 spotless days this year already.

 

Unless solar activity picks up soon, we’re likely to challenge 2008 and 2009 for most number of spotless days in a single year over the last century.

 

2009 had a 71% spotless day rate, 2008 was 73%. Right now 2019 is at 72% and climbing at the moment.

 

Still worried about the AP index?

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Thunder and lightning in port ludlow. Pea sized hail as well with this band of rain moving across the north sound. Looks like this could be an interesting day.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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How much of an effect does solar really have on our climate here? I mean, is there scientific proof it has an effect at all?

 

There is a pretty strong correlation between low solar activity and high latitude blocking. This gives you an idea (solar min winters back to the 1950s), but keep in mind that there is big variance in solar mins, as well as overall cycles and activity. But basically, more blocking means better chance of major cold at the mid latitudes.

 

21PjaAfjwP.png

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North wind really got pumping before I left the lake house...even to the point of having a few small branches down. Picked up after I had pulled the jetski out.

 

Arctic Intrusion 2019!

23FE5B5B-788D-40F0-B587-66A0EB03342B.jpeg

DE15B43D-F9DE-4012-AE3F-3D670712C283.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Up to 64F. Cloudy but dry.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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How much of an effect does solar really have on our climate here? I mean, is there scientific proof it has an effect at all?

There is scientific proof that it affects the tropical convection and high latitude circulation in a multitude of ways, therefore it must also affect the PNW.

 

It doesn’t have to have the same exact “effect” each year, of course. But nothing in the climate system does. So if you’re looking for 1-to-1 correlations, you’re on a fools errand (this goes for everything, including ENSO). :)

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There is a pretty strong correlation between low solar activity and high latitude blocking. This gives you an idea (solar min winters back to the 1950s), but keep in mind that there is big variance in solar mins, as well as overall cycles and activity. But basically, more blocking means better chance of major cold at the mid latitudes.

 

21PjaAfjwP.png

The relationship between solar and the West Pacific Warm Pool/Hadley-Walker Intensity Ratio has also evolved since the middle 20th century.

 

Where-as there used to be less of a noticeable solar effect on PNW winters, it has become quite substantial since the 1980s/90s, with more -PNA/Pacific blocking during/just after solar minimum, and lots of +PNA/zonal Pacific regimes during/just after solar maximum.

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Think the heaviest band passed us and is near redmond now. After this it will prob be mostly dry

 

 

Still have that band up north near Bellingham which is the arctic front.   Probably some powdery snow with that one.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still partly sunny and dry here... c-zone appears to be mostly moving off to the east rather than south.

Looks like it’s trying to start up again and aiming directly east at Seattle. Been breezy all day, but sunny and 61 degrees.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The relationship between solar and the West Pacific Warm Pool/Hadley-Walker Intensity Ratio has also evolved since the middle 20th century.

 

Where-as there used to be less of a noticeable solar effect on PNW winters, it has become quite substantial since the 1980s/90s, with more -PNA/Pacific blocking during/just after solar minimum, and lots of +PNA/zonal Pacific regimes during/just after solar maximum.

Yeah, the last 3 solar mins have all had at least one outstanding winter for the PNW. 4 including this one already - assuming that the min was "in effect" by late winter.

 

I personally believe that, given how low solar activity already was going into the winter.

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The relationship between solar and the West Pacific Warm Pool/Hadley-Walker Intensity Ratio has also evolved since the middle 20th century.

 

Where-as there used to be less of a noticeable solar effect on PNW winters, it has become quite substantial since the 1980s/90s, with more -PNA/Pacific blocking during/just after solar minimum, and lots of +PNA/zonal Pacific regimes during/just after solar maximum.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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