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October 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we wind down the final days of September, which has produced yet another "endless summer" month for most of our Sub, we are about to embark on a new month and one of the most important ones I tend to monitor in the Autumn months.  Are we going to see an abrupt change in our wx pattern???  Who has a chance at seeing their first snow flakes???  Some of our members will likely see their first Frost/Freeze of the season over the next 1-2 weeks.  An exciting weather pattern is set to begin as we open up the first week of October.

 

Let's discuss...

 

I've long believed we would open up the month of October with a northern stream storm system and the models are latching onto this idea.  It's still way to early to pin point details, but some of the models are suggesting a cold system.  Are our MN friends going to see the flakes fly???  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_32.png

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_36.png

 

 

Obviously, this system is days away but to see the models begin to show snow potential for parts of our Sub Forum is rather interesting.  Looking ahead for the remainder of this month, I'm starting to believe that this is only the beginning and most of our Sub will endure a very chilly month.  More than last October?  I believe so.  If you all believed last October was a fascinating month, I firmly believe this month will hold up to that level which we experienced last year.  Nature is about to deliver another spectacular show if you like patterns of extreme weather.

 

Here are some clues that I pay attn to that are now raising my eye brows and "fitting" the long standing idea of the "North American Vortex".  In the last few frames of the animation below at 30mb, one will notice the deeper blues directly over Hudson Bay and also another pocket forming in the N PAC near the Aleutians.  This, my friends, is a signal for a deep trough in the 2-3 week period and the likelihood of that forming is on the increase.  This is a huge clue and an important one as the new LRC forms.  If your looking for cold, this is an important piece to the puzzle.  If your seeking warmth, the west coast is your place, but I will say, that parts of the Plains/MW are likely to see surges of warmth this month as I foresee the North American pattern amplifying quite a bit as major troughs buckle across the eastern CONUS.

 

 

Buckle up and strap on those seat belts, this will be one bumpy ride!

 

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A little gnarly out there this morning.

 

76*. Partly Cloudy

 

DP 71*

Humidity. 84%. ..............woah!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I am very excited to see the storm the models are showing for the 2nd and 3rd.  I believe this will be the first system of the new LRC and if the models are close to being right it may be a very good producer for us this winter.  This is one we should watch closely and not forget about.

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As we wind down the final days of September, which has produced yet another "endless summer" month for most of our Sub, we are about to embark on a new month and one of the most important ones I tend to monitor in the Autumn months.  Are we going to see an abrupt change in our wx pattern???  Who has a chance at seeing their first snow flakes???  Some of our members will likely see their first Frost/Freeze of the season over the next 1-2 weeks.  An exciting weather pattern is set to begin as we open up the first week of October.

 

Let's discuss...

 

I've long believed we would open up the month of October with a northern stream storm system and the models are latching onto this idea.  It's still way to early to pin point details, but some of the models are suggesting a cold system.  Are our MN friends going to see the flakes fly???  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_32.png

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_36.png

 

 

Obviously, this system is days away but to see the models begin to show snow potential for parts of our Sub Forum is rather interesting.  Looking ahead for the remainder of this month, I'm starting to believe that this is only the beginning and most of our Sub will endure a very chilly month.  More than last October?  I believe so.  If you all believed last October was a fascinating month, I firmly believe this month will hold up to that level which we experienced last year.  Nature is about to deliver another spectacular show if you like patterns of extreme weather.

 

Here are some clues that I pay attn to that are now raising my eye brows and "fitting" the long standing idea of the "North American Vortex".  In the last few frames of the animation below at 30mb, one will notice the deeper blues directly over Hudson Bay and also another pocket forming in the N PAC near the Aleutians.  This, my friends, is a signal for a deep trough in the 2-3 week period and the likelihood of that forming is on the increase.  This is a huge clue and an important one as the new LRC forms.  If your looking for cold, this is an important piece to the puzzle.  If your seeking warmth, the west coast is your place, but I will say, that parts of the Plains/MW are likely to see surges of warmth this month as I foresee the North American pattern amplifying quite a bit as major troughs buckle across the eastern CONUS.

 

 

Buckle up and strap on those seat belts, this will be one bumpy ride!

 

 

temp30anim.gif

 

I'm unsure how I feel about this Tom! I'm so excited yet so unprepared! When my husband and I got married 10 years ago on Oct. 11th, it was snowing that day as well.  Granted, it was just light flurries, but enough to cover the ground for a bit. It's expected that you could get snow in October, yet unexpected at the same time. You just never know what October will bring!

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As we wind down the final days of September, which has produced yet another "endless summer" month for most of our Sub, we are about to embark on a new month and one of the most important ones I tend to monitor in the Autumn months.  Are we going to see an abrupt change in our wx pattern???  Who has a chance at seeing their first snow flakes???  Some of our members will likely see their first Frost/Freeze of the season over the next 1-2 weeks.  An exciting weather pattern is set to begin as we open up the first week of October.

 

Let's discuss...

 

I've long believed we would open up the month of October with a northern stream storm system and the models are latching onto this idea.  It's still way to early to pin point details, but some of the models are suggesting a cold system.  Are our MN friends going to see the flakes fly???  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_32.png

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_36.png

 

 

Obviously, this system is days away but to see the models begin to show snow potential for parts of our Sub Forum is rather interesting.  Looking ahead for the remainder of this month, I'm starting to believe that this is only the beginning and most of our Sub will endure a very chilly month.  More than last October?  I believe so.  If you all believed last October was a fascinating month, I firmly believe this month will hold up to that level which we experienced last year.  Nature is about to deliver another spectacular show if you like patterns of extreme weather.

 

Here are some clues that I pay attn to that are now raising my eye brows and "fitting" the long standing idea of the "North American Vortex".  In the last few frames of the animation below at 30mb, one will notice the deeper blues directly over Hudson Bay and also another pocket forming in the N PAC near the Aleutians.  This, my friends, is a signal for a deep trough in the 2-3 week period and the likelihood of that forming is on the increase.  This is a huge clue and an important one as the new LRC forms.  If your looking for cold, this is an important piece to the puzzle.  If your seeking warmth, the west coast is your place, but I will say, that parts of the Plains/MW are likely to see surges of warmth this month as I foresee the North American pattern amplifying quite a bit as major troughs buckle across the eastern CONUS.

 

 

Buckle up and strap on those seat belts, this will be one bumpy ride!

 

 

temp30anim.gif

 

I'd take a cold soaker out of that and walk away with a "win". Oct 3rd is my youngest sister's b-day, and I can remember flying an inflatable kite I had received as a gift (for my own b-day a couple weeks prior) during a heavy snow squall at my folk's place. This would've been 10-3-73 in Genesee Cnty. That's still my earliest encounter with snow in my SMI years. 

 

As for the PV scenario. Interestingly, The Weather Centre's 1st stab at winter outlook (even tho created back in July) pointed towards the likeliness of a weaker and/or displaced PV, as well as an environment conducive to SSW events due to the excessively warm SST's in the Bering Straight. They were not able to pin down the state of the PDO at that time, which can have major ramifications. Their final comes out Oct 12th and should be a good read. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's a start. Nothing earth-shattering, but we'll at least get rid of Summer.

 

GFS being the GFS, recently was going gonzo with the cold over us. Even if the magnitude is/was overdone, you have to like the placement considering the new LRC timing. 

 

20190924 12z gFS_850mb_Temp_Anom_240.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'd take a cold soaker out of that and walk away with a "win". Oct 3rd is my youngest sister's b-day, and I can remember flying an inflatable kite I had received as a gift (for my own b-day a couple weeks prior) during a heavy snow squall at my folk's place. This would've been 10-3-73 in Genesee Cnty. That's still my earliest encounter with snow in my SMI years. 

 

As for the PV scenario. Interestingly, The Weather Centre's 1st stab at winter outlook (even tho created back in July) pointed towards the likeliness of a weaker and/or displaced PV, as well as an environment conducive to SSW events due to the excessively warm SST's in the Bering Straight. They were not able to pin down the state of the PDO at that time, which can have major ramifications. Their final comes out Oct 12th and should be a good read. 

Judah Cohen is the weak PV camp as well due to low sea ice across the N PAC side of the Arctic and is expecting extreme weather in the mid latitudes this winter.  Should be fun to see how this all unfolds.

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Cant believe is that time of the year again when we start decor for Halloween. WOW!

 

Anyone interested in the movie..."Halloween Kills"?

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS being the GFS, recently was going gonzo with the cold over us. Even if the magnitude is/was overdone, you have to like the placement considering the new LRC timing. 

 

attachicon.gif20190924 12z gFS_850mb_Temp_Anom_240.png

Holy Macro!!!!!! :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS being the GFS, recently was going gonzo with the cold over us. Even if the magnitude is/was overdone, you have to like the placement considering the new LRC timing.

 

20190924 12z gFS_850mb_Temp_Anom_240.png

Worth noting that this is an old run and it has warmed in more recent runs.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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First accumulating snowfall on average for ya'll on here:

Pink stands for Sept, Purple for October and etc

No color stands for Jan and Feb

 

avg-first-snow-primary.jpg?v=at&w=1280&h

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Worth noting that this is an old run and it has warmed in more recent runs.

 

You win the Captain Obvious award buddy. I as much as said so in my post.  :P

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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First accumulating snowfall on average for ya'll on here:

Pink stands for Sept, Purple for October and etc

No color stands for Jan and Feb

 

avg-first-snow-primary.jpg?v=at&w=1280&h

 

Yep, Oct snows here are considered "early". Sometimes it's telling of a severe winter on the way (13, 09, 06, 00), while other times it's simply due to an impending Nino (97), especially the stronger ones. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, Oct snows here are considered "early". Sometimes it's telling of a severe winter on the way (13, 09, 06, 00), while other times it's simply due to an impending Nino (97), especially the stronger ones. 

I wish I knew which is true or false :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Storm system mentioned above still showing up on the GFS with heavy snows for South Dakota and other areas.  Wow. Quite a change in store potentially.

 

prateptype_cat.us_nc.png

 

No kidding! Ofc, it's The Plains where they flip hard or not at all  :lol:  (always brutal place)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I wish I knew which is true or false :lol:

 

I guess if there's any good news, with ENSO not likely to be in an El-Nino state, an Oct snow should NOT be a sign of that happening. (no guarantees tho  :ph34r:)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I guess if there's any good news, with ENSO not likely to be in an El-Nino state, an Oct snow should NOT be a sign of that happening. (no guarantees tho  :ph34r:)

:)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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First accumulating snowfall on average for ya'll on here:

Pink stands for Sept, Purple for October and etc

No color stands for Jan and Feb

 

avg-first-snow-primary.jpg?v=at&w=1280&h

Getting later here in the last decade. Used to be November here instead of December until the 2010s rolled in.

 

If my theory is correct, those should start changing to the south in the next 5 years.

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Moving forward we’re still in record heat.

 

By David Finfrock, NBC Met, Ft Worth

 

Temperatures continue to run about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs will stay in the mid 90s for the remainder of the work week with heat indices at or even above 100. It appears we are still on track for the hottest September ever for DFW.

 

There is a slight chance for scattered showers late Friday night into Saturday. But the best chance for rain will be north of DFW. Not all areas will get rain.

 

It will remain unseasonably warm into the first week of October. But it does appear we will see our first real cold front of the season by next Thursday, dropping temperatures closer to seasonal norms.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Over the last several days, all the models have begun to pick up on a massive blocking pattern across western/central Canada as we open up the month of October.  I've posted the LR clues I use and they are performing quite well.  Check out these maps below across North America off the 00z GEFS and the temp pattern that is now being predicted.  None of the models saw this type of cold coming and this has a very intriguing look for the development of the new LRC pattern.  Using analog methods to predict this month is not going to be a wise idea.  I personally believe there are too many countering variables in the oceans/atmosphere that are going to produce conflicting solutions.  Needless to say, we should expect to see more cold than warmth at least through the first half of the month.

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_7.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_7.png

 

 

 

 

Back in August, I had a vision of where I thought we would be heading this month.  Since that time, the models were not in agreement of that idea until now.  That vision of mine is now showing up and I'm pleased to see this 500mb pattern take shape.  #believe

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_8.png

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What a way to open up the month of October as 2 seasons clash together...right across the central CONUS....that's quite a temp gradient...ay???  

 

 

 

icon_T2m_us_48.png

 

 

 

Speaking of temps, when I got up around 3:45am the temp was 62F but has since dropped to 57F and still falling.  I can definitely feel the "chill" in my room now.

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Last post this morning, using the Bearing Sea Rule, during the week of the 20th I'll be looking for a storm system coming out of the GOM and tracking potentially up the App's/OV.  Following this storm, I expect a major trough to engulf the eastern U.S.  Fun times of storm tracking in the days/weeks ahead.

 

JMA weeklies suggesting an active eastern CONUS for the 2nd half of the month....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201909.D2512_gl0.png

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Getting later here in the last decade. Used to be November here instead of December until the 2010s rolled in.

 

If my theory is correct, those should start changing to the south in the next 5 years.

Hopefully you are correct, otherwise you remain one color behind :P

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like October will arrive in a very warm way. Mid 80s outta do it w t'stms in play, b4 a sharp, drastic weather change by midweek. Hopefully some severe weather. :)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The weather roller coaster here will be something the next 6-7 days.  Days with highs in the low 70's, low 60's, close to 90 on Sunday and humid, low 80's Monday, low 60's Tuesday, low 50's Wednesday or cooler.  Multiple rain chances.  The joys of living on the Great Plains with huge swings of temperatures.  

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Over the last several days, all the models have begun to pick up on a massive blocking pattern across western/central Canada as we open up the month of October.  I've posted the LR clues I use and they are performing quite well.  Check out these maps below across North America off the 00z GEFS and the temp pattern that is now being predicted.  None of the models saw this type of cold coming and this has a very intriguing look for the development of the new LRC pattern.  Using analog methods to predict this month is not going to be a wise idea.  I personally believe there are too many countering variables in the oceans/atmosphere that are going to produce conflicting solutions.  Needless to say, we should expect to see more cold than warmth at least through the first half of the month.

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_7.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_7.png

 

 

 

 

Back in August, I had a vision of where I thought we would be heading this month.  Since that time, the models were not in agreement of that idea until now.  That vision of mine is now showing up and I'm pleased to see this 500mb pattern take shape.  #believe

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_8.png

 

Liking that streak of moisture "just" south of me. That's where I like to see it leading into winter. The good snows will usually be a bit north of the wet streak. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Moving forward we’re still in record heat.

 

By David Finfrock, NBC Met, Ft Worth

 

Temperatures continue to run about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs will stay in the mid 90s for the remainder of the work week with heat indices at or even above 100. It appears we are still on track for the hottest September ever for DFW.

 

There is a slight chance for scattered showers late Friday night into Saturday. But the best chance for rain will be north of DFW. Not all areas will get rain.

 

It will remain unseasonably warm into the first week of October. But it does appear we will see our first real cold front of the season by next Thursday, dropping temperatures closer to seasonal norms.

Gotta love how “cold fronts” these days means closer to seasonal norms

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After digesting the overnight data, one thing I'm almost certain of that will happen this coming cold season, is the magnitude of the blocking in all the right places.  I am now seeing all the models lining up a beautiful 500mb pattern to open up the first full week of October right when our first potential system of the new LRC develops (6th-8th).  The aforementioned storm has been well predicted using the BSR a couple weeks ago and the thought was for it to come out of the central Rockies.  So, here we are, finally getting to the range where the models are starting to sniff this system out.  

 

Last nights 00z GEFS is nearly a picture perfect illustration of where I have always thought this storm would track....Plains/MW cutter???  Blocking is becoming prevalent across most of Canada which will aid in keeping this storm from cutting to much.  I like what I'm seeing at this range and the development of this new pattern.  This month is going to rock.  I'm stoked at how everything is coming together.  Of note, the EPS is trending towards the GEFS in the longer range so Kuddos to that model.  Fun times ahead.

 

I mean, can you ask for a better mean 500mb forecast for the first full week of the new LRC???  

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

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Gotta love how “cold fronts” these days means closer to seasonal norms

It's pretty amazing. There's hope at the end of next week as temps will dip into the 80's which will be closer to normal.

 

We're at 73*. Heading to 96*

 

Current humidity is 80%...yeah.

DP 67*

 

Total allergens 10.7 on a 12 scale.

Good times y'all !

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Absolutely zero prolonged coolness in the Euro weeklies. Only a couple days in mid-October (the ones Tom noted with the GEFS) then it's back to all warmth. Hope it's warm bias but I doubt it considering it'd take a major pattern change to get this miserable weather out of here in favor of temps closer to normal.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Not our area, but latest iterations of GFS have Montana and interior Canada becoming a glacier over the next 16 days. That is pretty remarkable considering some of those places had snow in June.

Crazy to see unfold up there. Even the plainsy locations of Montana are seeing blizzard conditions and a foot of snow.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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CLE's take on the cold front.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The inevitable pattern change looks to finally occur by the end of
the week. The stubborn front will finally push through the region as
low pressure moves across the area on Thursday. This will bring
shower and thunderstorm chance to the area. Some wrap around lake
enhancement/lake effect will be possible Thursday night into Friday
as a much colder airmass moves into the region. High pressure will
build across the region Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will
slowly warm through the weekend as the ridge moves east of the
region, and low pressure track towards the area providing precip
chances by Sunday. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 60s
north to the upper 70s south. Highs on Friday and Saturday will only
reach the low to mid 60s, with mid to upper 60s by Sunday.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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End of next week is looking quite chilly, if not cold at night w temps falling into the 30s and highs not rising any higher than the low 50s. This potent CF coming by midweek means business.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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