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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

october 2019 PNW discussion
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#7001
BhamMe

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:19 AM

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The best I can do! TONS of snow coming for BC as the firehose of moisture is pointed at them as a very cold air mass 850s ~-20c to -28c is in place.

gfs_asnow_ak_65.png

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png

So as I read this, somewhere around 40+" near Big White ski resort, an hour East of Kelowna Canada about 5500 ft up? 



#7002
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:57 AM

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Ended October with eight freezes, and 12 mornings with at least some frost (sub-35). The most I can ever remember seeing for that month.

 

Average temperature ended up just a hair below 50. Easily the coldest October I have ever personally witnessed, which makes sense since the last one even approaching anything this cold was in the fall before I was born (1985).


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#7003
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:45 AM

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Phil says no


What?

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#7004
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:47 AM

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Your grandfather (TyCobbLibido) was saying the same thing at the end of October 1949. 😏


BobbyJonesLibido would have been a lot funnier.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#7005
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:59 AM

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Crap, Salem only hit 26 on 10/31/06. I must issue a correction. It is the coldest Halloween morning at SLE since 2002!


I’ll dispel the fear over 2002 later, but interestingly enough the severe weather/QLCS we had last night was the first late Oct/early Nov event here since..2002. Lol. Not to mention, 2002 was also the last year with a South Pole SSW and early/dynamic FW as well. Those are pretty rare down south.

But, no need to fret..in reality, the only thing 2002 has going for it is the fantastic QBO alignment. But that doesn’t predict what happens regionally by itself. We can’t repeat the mid-latitude wavetrain of 2002, even with an El Niño this year, because solar maximum in conjunction with the cold strat hangover from the 1990s in 2002 produces a non-homogenous NAM/NPO. So it’s a non-starter.

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#7006
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:19 AM

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15-day precip anomaly:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf-anom-15day-


Something is up with the pattern this year, man.

Not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but never in recorded history has a “severe” drought established here in 10 weeks, then get completely erased in 2 weeks during one of the driest months of year climatologically (October). There’s no precedent for it at all.

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#7007
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:32 AM

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This post makes Phil VERY angry.


Grrrr!!

I look at that list and see a combination of ENSO and early-season WHEM MJO transits (phase 8/1 in October is actually cold west/warm east, hence 57/58, 68/69, 72/73, etc).

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#7008
Rubus Leucodermis

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:36 AM

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So as I read this, somewhere around 40+" near Big White ski resort, an hour East of Kelowna Canada about 5500 ft up? 

 

That shows Whatcom County getting some, so no complaints here.



#7009
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:10 AM

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BobbyJonesLibido would have been a lot funnier.


I liked the fact they both started with T. Going for alliteration here.

#7010
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:01 PM

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Cold October’s at Shawnigan Lake. Just cracked the top 10

1919. 45.5
1949. 45.9
1920. 46.0
1916. 46.2
1930. 46.4
1984. 46.4
1946. 46.8
1950. 46.8
1913. 46.9
2019. 47.1 (through October 28th)


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#7011
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 November 2019 - 08:13 PM

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...RECORD COLDEST OCTOBER 2019, UPDATED...

OCTOBER 2019 WILL GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER EVER FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST.

                       AVERAGE
                     TEMPERATURE
LOCATION              OCT 2019    PREVIOUS RECORD   RECORDS BEGAN
==================================================================
HOLDEN VILLAGE          37.4        38.0 (1985)         1962
TURNBULL NWR            38.1        39.5 (2009)         2007
NEZPERCE                39.1        40.8 (2013)         1901
SANDPOINT               39.2        40.1 (1919)         1910
WALLACE                 39.2        40.3 (1946)         1941
DEER PARK               39.3        39.7 (2002)         1998
NWS SPOKANE             39.5        41.1 (2009)         1996
CHEWELAH                39.9        40.3 (2009)         1925
WINTHROP                41.8        42.6 (1984)         1906
SPOKANE AIRPORT         42.3        42.8 (1905)         1881
RITZVILLE               42.7        43.7 (1990)         1916
FELTS FIELD             43.7        44.6 (1998)         1998
KAMIAH                  44.1        46.6 (2009)         1979
GRAND COULEE DAM        45.4        46.0 (2002)         1934
EPHRATA                 45.8        46.3 (1984)         1949
WENATCHEE AIRPORT       45.5        46.4 (1984)         1959
WENATACHEE WATERPLANT   47.5        47.7 (1946)         1931


...RECORD COLDEST OCTOBER 2019, UPDATED...

OCTOBER 2019 WILL GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER EVER FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST.

                       AVERAGE
                     TEMPERATURE
LOCATION              OCT 2019    PREVIOUS RECORD   RECORDS BEGAN
==================================================================
HOLDEN VILLAGE          37.4        38.0 (1985)         1962
TURNBULL NWR            38.1        39.5 (2009)         2007
NEZPERCE                39.1        40.8 (2013)         1901
SANDPOINT               39.2        40.1 (1919)         1910
WALLACE                 39.2        40.3 (1946)         1941
DEER PARK               39.3        39.7 (2002)         1998
NWS SPOKANE             39.5        41.1 (2009)         1996
CHEWELAH                39.9        40.3 (2009)         1925
WINTHROP                41.8        42.6 (1984)         1906
SPOKANE AIRPORT         42.3        42.8 (1905)         1881
RITZVILLE               42.7        43.7 (1990)         1916
FELTS FIELD             43.7        44.6 (1998)         1998
KAMIAH                  44.1        46.6 (2009)         1979
GRAND COULEE DAM        45.4        46.0 (2002)         1934
EPHRATA                 45.8        46.3 (1984)         1949
WENATCHEE AIRPORT       45.5        46.4 (1984)         1959
WENATACHEE WATERPLANT   47.5        47.7 (1946)         1931


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#7012
Jesse

Posted 03 November 2019 - 08:26 PM

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2002 :(

2002 :(





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