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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

october 2019 PNW discussion
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#101
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2019 - 12:53 PM

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I like when it snows where I live.
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#102
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2019 - 12:55 PM

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I like when it snows where I live.

How much and when is the most snow you’ve seen fall where you lived?

#103
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:00 PM

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25 degrees this morning. Almost chilly.

 

In the first week of October it's not uncommon to have mid 20's but regionally I'm sure this was a cold morning.


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 11.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#104
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:00 PM

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How much and when is the most snow you’ve seen fall where you lived?


In town? Late December 2008. We had a little over a foot at the peak a few days before Christmas.

Out in the Gorge, February 2014. We had an 18” depth at one point with that series of storms.
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#105
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:07 PM

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I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least.  Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place.  The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway.  One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA.  As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here.  That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

 

 

 

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File  cold.png   266.08KB   2 downloads

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#106
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:09 PM

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I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least. Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place. The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway. One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA. As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here. That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

Is that what your NPI? Index was based on?

#107
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:09 PM

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25 degrees this morning. Almost chilly.

In the first week of October it's not uncommon to have mid 20's but regionally I'm sure this was a cold morning.

36 and a little frosty here. Earliest frost I’ve ever seen in Tacoma. It was pretty impressive for most places.
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#108
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:15 PM

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36 and a little frosty here. Earliest frost I’ve ever seen in Tacoma. It was pretty impressive for most places.

 

More anomalous in lowland areas I imagine. 

 

8 out of every 10 times there is something in the 20's at KLMT during this first week. There was even a 21 in 2017 in early October.


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 11.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#109
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:22 PM

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More anomalous in lowland areas I imagine. 
 
8 out of every 10 times there is something in the 20's at KLMT during this first week. There was even a 21 in 2017 in early October.

We typically don’t see our first low in the 30s until late October or early November. Frost in mid November at is normal as well, hitting 36 on the first day of October and having frost is pretty anomalous.
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#110
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:25 PM

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Prove it.


2013-14 and 2016-17 were both better than any winter since 1992-93 for most of the Willamette Valley. Then you have the massive storm storm this past February for Eugene area.
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Low. Solar.


#111
K%%

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:37 PM

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For one, I loved 2016-2017. IMBY I had 25-30 inches of snow that winter.

Rundown:

1-3 inches on December 8th, 0.75 inches of ice.
2-4 inches on December 15th.
1 inch on January 8th, 0.5 inches of ice.
17 inches on January 10th.
1 inch on February 5th.

Not to mention several gusts 55-65 on April 7th.
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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#112
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:53 PM

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I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least.  Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place.  The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway.  One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA.  As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here.  That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

 

Yes it does. The operational Euro seems kind of on its own right now with trying to turn that trough into a cutoff low.


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#113
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2019 - 02:36 PM

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Yes it does. The operational Euro seems kind of on its own right now with trying to turn that trough into a cutoff low.

Hate to say it but I’m not buying that cutoff euro solution either.
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#114
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 October 2019 - 02:57 PM

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There is someone who used to live in south Salem area, had 12-15" in Feb 2014. I don't think he's a member here but he occasionally posts on one of the FB groups.


I had about 9" 2/14 in the hills of West Salem. That was about as far north as the heavy accumulations fell. South Salem hills, only about 3 miles south of me ATCF, did receive closer to a foot.
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#115
Phil

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:16 PM

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I love seeing Alaska and the Eastern US torch 🔥 in the cold season. 😍


What goes around comes around, my brother. :P
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#116
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:21 PM

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It’s October 1st.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#117
Phil

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:22 PM

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NWS tweeted that Great Falls, MT hit 9 degrees this morning. Looks like their earliest single digits on record by a full week (10/8/1985).

Also looks like the 37 at PDX was their earliest since 9/28/1983.


The frequency at which the 1980s’ records have fallen over these last few years (relative to other decades) is interesting in the context of the ongoing +PMM/-AMM structure, which until the 2010s, was not observed outside that 1977-1994 period and (perhaps not coincidently) the 1910-1935 period.
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#118
CulverJosh

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:25 PM

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I want Seattle/Portland winter predictions.

Snowfall:
Lowest High temp:
Lowest low temp:

Number of foreign-driven Prius cars with chains on the rear tires:
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Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#119
Phil

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:33 PM

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.
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#120
CulverJosh

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:37 PM

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

Lots of ridging in the midwest. Could spell some NorEasters if you can get some strong highs in Eastern Canada.
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Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#121
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:40 PM

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Looks like it’ll end up being a 59/36 day here. Should be another cool night coming up.

#122
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:42 PM

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.


Yup

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#123
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2019 - 03:43 PM

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe

#124
CulverJosh

Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:03 PM

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What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe


Very little IMO. Means a lot more for the South Pacific and points south. Means a whole heck of a lot to Australia.
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#125
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:15 PM

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EUG up to 61. Beautiful crisp early fall day.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#126
Phil

Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:28 PM

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What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe


It’s an interesting thought experiment. Typically it’s a secondary boundary condition that only affects North America depending on what more dominant drivers are doing. It tends to be associated with -NAOs during the winter, all else being equal.

However, a prolific +IOD that *is* the most dominant low/medium frequency mode present in the tropics will, by default, affect the wavetrain across Eurasia/NATL/NPAC via the stunting of IPWP/MC exhaust and possibly effects on the Eurasian wavetrain/Siberian High.
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#127
CulverJosh

Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:41 PM

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+IOD means more to the east coast. Why Phil is harping on it. We need to pay attention.

Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#128
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:44 PM

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It’s an interesting thought experiment. Typically it’s a secondary boundary condition that only affects North America depending on what more dominant drivers are doing. It tends to be associated with -NAOs during the winter, all else being equal.

However, a prolific +IOD that *is* the most dominant low/medium frequency mode present in the tropics will, by default, affect the wavetrain across Eurasia/NATL/NPAC via the stunting of IPWP/MC exhaust and possibly effects on the Eurasian wavetrain/Siberian High.


So it's an experiment, which means nothing currently.

#129
CulverJosh

Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:46 PM

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So it's an experiment, which means nothing currently.


Exactly, and if you look at the data......

I rest my case.

Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#130
umadbro

Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:48 PM

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Just another excuse to keep throwing around acronyms that maybe 5 people understand.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#131
umadbro

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:00 PM

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Looking at MT Hood the last two days have been great. Who doesn't love a good view of a snow capped mountain?
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#132
Jginmartini

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:02 PM

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Looking at MT Hood the last two days have been great. Who doesn't love a good view of a snow capped mountain?


Driving home today saw Rainier in the beautiful virgin white snow as well!!!

High today 63*
Currently 60*
Layman’s terms please 😁

#133
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:03 PM

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Is that what your NPI? Index was based on?

 

I have one index called the NPS and the other is the EO.  The one I was referring to was the NPS (North Pacific surface pressure).


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#134
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:05 PM

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Net Promoter Score

#135
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:09 PM

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Nocturnal Penis Sucker?

I can say penis. Right Matt?
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#136
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:15 PM

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The 18z is really going the right way with next week's trough once again.  The runs that avoid merging the cutoff low to our SW and the cold trough digging down from the NW end up really good.  That trough could be close to as cold as the recent one if it plays out right.  It appears it will be more of an open trough instead of a closed low though.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#137
CulverJosh

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:16 PM

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Just another excuse to keep throwing around acronyms that maybe 5 people understand.


I said that 10 years ago and was called dumb.

Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#138
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:23 PM

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Looking like another cold one tonight.  We should have some great color on the trees by mid month.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#139
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:26 PM

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The MJO appears to be stuck in octant one for the next couple of weeks so no real reason to expect much change before mid month.  Obviously MJO 1 at this point in the season with this background state is working for us!


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#140
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:32 PM

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Nocturnal Penis Sucker?

I can say penis. Right Matt?

Penis is ok to say, girls have a **, but you have to spell vajina wrong, smh.
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#141
umadbro

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:33 PM

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Driving home today saw Rainier in the beautiful virgin white snow as well!!!

High today 63*
Currently 60*


Not many times I've headed out fishing for fall salmon and seen snow capped peaks. Usually leads to tougher fishing because the fish are able to spread out. But I'm ok with it.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#142
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:45 PM

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53 at the moment in Tacoma, should get down into the upper 30s tonight but I’m doubtful we see frost again. Still upper 30s is quite cold for this early in the year.

#143
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:46 PM

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What goes around comes around, my brother. :P


If we get a cold and snowy December then I'll root for you guys out East. I'm all for sharing the wealth. Can't get too greedy.
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#144
CulverJosh

Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:59 PM

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Looking like a dud for the east coast in general. They will have occasional chances as they always do, but it is Rockies west this year.
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Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#145
daniel1

Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:05 PM

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The MJO appears to be stuck in octant one for the next couple of weeks so no real reason to expect much change before mid month. Obviously MJO 1 at this point in the season with this background state is working for us!

Would be much much different come DJF which is why you should be careful what you wish for.

#146
K%%

Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:08 PM

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Looking like a dud for the east coast in general. They will have occasional chances as they always do, but it is Rockies west this year.

 

I'm curious to know why. Are there meteorological implications, and could you explain them to someone (me) who isn't so well-versed in weather-lingo?


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#147
MossMan

Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:13 PM

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I’m still trying to figure out the WHAM!
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#148
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:17 PM

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.
Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

I was discussing this with my mother today, fascinating stuff.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#149
K%%

Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:23 PM

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I’m still trying to figure out the WHAM!

 

Wake me up, before you go go?


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#150
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:29 PM

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Looks pretty chilly tomorrow morning here with a clear night and calm winds. Mid 20’s seem like a good guess then warming nicely into the low 60’s late afternoon. Hello October.





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: october, 2019, PNW, discussion