October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

From what I can tell next weekend is still up in the air.

 

 

Pretty sure its going to end up being wet.   

[Timmy Supercell]

We'll be out in Oklahoma next weekend. Boomer Sooner. 

 

Show us some pics of the blizzards over there. 

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty sure its going to end up being wet.

 

Wet for North Bend, dry for the Portland area.

 

I think that’s a pretty safe bet. Fall seems to have more “WA but not OR” rain events because the wet season starts later the farther south you go. Last November was a good example.

[Timmy Supercell]

Monthly departures through 10/11

 

PDX -5.4

EUG -6.0

SLE -6.3

K-Falls -7.4

Redmond -7.5

Burns -8.7

Boise -9.2

Spokane -8.5

Sea-Tac -3.4

OLY -5.4

BLI -2.6

 

Interesting how Seattle and Bellingham haven't been that cool so far this month.

 

Nice, potentially 2 below avg months in a row, I'm gonna have to do some numbers on when that last happened. 

[Guest daniel1]

The models are hinting at another possible offshore block during week two. They still haven't been able to solidify on anything though. Past history of years with significant late Sept / early Oct cold snaps suggest a decent chance of something chilly later in the month. It could also take the 1949 route and torch though. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

If it torches then all bets are off for an epic winter this year.

[ShawniganLake]

If it torches then all bets are off for an epic winter this year.

That makes zero sense since he referenced 49 as torching and 49-50 is the benchmark of epic. Nice try!

[ShawniganLake]

That’s quite the block on the long range GFS

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 33 last night.  Close but no cigar. Had a blast at the ballgame.  Weather was almost perfect, but I would have been ok with it being colder.

[The Swamp]

The models are hinting at another possible offshore block during week two.  They still haven't been able to solidify on anything though.  Past history of years with significant late Sept / early Oct cold snaps suggest a decent chance of something chilly later in the month.  It could also take the 1949 route and torch though.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

I've already stated my money is on torch.

 

Troughs replaced by death ridges.  Mark it down.

[Jesse]

Weather station is saying it froze here on the 1st and got down to 32.

I also saw frost and a low of 32 on that date. It was my first widespread frost of the season (the night before had some but only hit 36).

[Jesse]

Gradients died off nicely last evening. I was able to drop to 41 by midnight and PDX fell to 43, improving on their daily low by several degrees.

 

Hit 35 here this morning while PDX hit 38. Pretty cool they saw another record low, I wasn’t even aware one was in play for today.

[snow_wizard]

A couple of interesting possibilities in the 12z GFS.  Decent chance of another cold wave later in the month.

[snow_wizard]

I've already stated my money is on torch.

 

Troughs replaced by death ridges.  Mark it down.

 

In some ways a torch might not be a bad thing.  Years that feature cold in October followed by a torch have a very good track record.  It would probably mean the deepest cold would come deeper into the cold season.

[TT-SEA]

Filtered sun here now and 58... nice day.

[Timmy Supercell]

In some ways a torch might not be a bad thing.  Years that feature cold in October followed by a torch have a very good track record.  It would probably mean the deepest cold would come deeper into the cold season.

 

In the September-March period 2016-2017 my only cool month at KLMT was January. Everything else ended either at or above average. Really no guarantees how it goes down even if it's a good snow for everyone.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That’s quite the block on the long range GFS

Yeah, winter is getting close now.

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows 850s below normal 5 of the next 7 days.  Not too shabby!  It also indicates surface pressure will remain fairly high over the NE Pacific.  Good sign.

[El_Nina]

I also saw frost and a low of 32 on that date. It was my first widespread frost of the season (the night before had some but only hit 36).

Good to know it was accurate. I was out of town then.

[Deweydog]

White stuff on the ultimate white privilege holiday...

[snow_wizard]

I like the looks of the Euro late in the run.  Heights trying to raise over the GOA again.

 

Meanwhile...only 53 here today under heavy cloud cover.  Another minus in the bag today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just 52F here so far.  What a month!

[stuffradio]

White stuff on the ultimate white privilege holiday...

Black Friday?

[Timmy Supercell]

So I'm guessing this is yet another season without a regional wind event. 

[ShawniganLake]

So I'm guessing this is yet another season without a regional wind event.

Probably a bit early to make that call.

[Timmy Supercell]

Probably a bit early to make that call.

 

So far in this last decade (or even longer) most of the time the PNW gets snow events it is one thing or the other, not both. 

 

I know 2016 had one or two but that was under severe in most locations.

[snow_wizard]

So far in this last decade (or even longer) most of the time the PNW gets snow events it is one thing or the other, not both. 

 

I know 2016 had one or two but that was under severe in most locations.

 

2006-07 had the big wind event and then snow and cold a month later.  I get enough wind here every winter being in an east wind outflow area.

[snow_wizard]

Black Friday?

 

Columbus Day.  Am I allowed to mention Columbus on here? 

 

The very man who was responsible for the evil white man raping and pillaging North America...

[snow_wizard]

The wind shifted to SW here and the temp actually dropped a bit.  Inversion season has begun.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Columbus Day.  Am I allowed to mention Columbus on here? 

 

The very man who was responsible for the evil white man raping and pillaging North America...

 

The vikings had some fun in Newfoundland even before that too.

[Phil]

If it torches then all bets are off for an epic winter this year.

You can stfu anytime.

[Phil]

That makes zero sense since he referenced 49 as torching and 49-50 is the benchmark of epic. Nice try!

To be fair, it’s not like 1949/50 is an analog anyway.

 

Strong niña/solar max/+QBO and -PMM/-PDO. Essentially the opposite background state vs this year.

[Phil]

Yeah, winter is getting close now.

 

That pattern yet again? Oof.

[Jesse]

So Phil thinks we will be torching too.

Oof.

[Phil]

So Phil thinks we will be torching too.

Third to last post. My winter forecast through January.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2059-fall-and-winter-2019-20-predictions-and-discussion/page-4?do=findComment&comment=494771

[Phil]

To summarize my idea again (for what little it’s worth):

 

I’m anticipating a big time arctic express to set up early for the US this year (likely starting Nov 15-20, +/- 5 days). I’m thinking January is the month to watch in the PNW for the big stuff (November could briefly get wild too) while December looks like a dud. I have no idea about February yet..depends on intraseasonal cycle amplitude vs background state and any potential SSW.

 

1) I think there’s a chance for a legitimate “appetizer” backdoor/continental blast potential in November in the PNW as the behemoth -EPO sets up mid-month, but most of it should slide east. If this month ends up delivering, it might just be a bonus for what’s to come.

 

2) I do think December will torch in the West, but much of the country from the Rockies eastward could still be in the icebox with a +PNA/Aleutian Low. It looks like a frigid month with a niño flavor in some ways..interesting combo.

 

3) January is potentially very interesting for the PNW and much of the intermountain West and Northern Plains. There’s a legit shot at a retrogression and high amplitude GOA anticyclone (mid-month?) with a residual anticyclone near Greenland. There could be an obscene amount of cold on our side of the pole at this time (full PV column likely begins to displace into NW Canada). If there’s enough wave amplification..holy sh*t.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The new UKMET seasonals look fantastic for the PNW. During the NDJ timeframe, it shows the coldest anomalies/temperatures in the West/PNW for the CONUS. I like our chances to SCORE in the front half of the winter. Less likely of having to wait until February like the previous 2 winters.

 

[Farmboy]

To summarize my idea again (for what little it’s worth):

 

I’m anticipating a big time arctic express to set up early for the US this year (likely starting Nov 15-20, +/- 5 days). I’m thinking January is the month to watch in the PNW for the big stuff (November could briefly get wild too) while December looks like a dud. I have no idea about February yet..depends on intraseasonal cycle amplitude vs background state and any potential SSW.

 

1) I think there’s a chance for a legitimate “appetizer” backdoor/continental blast potential in November in the PNW as the behemoth -EPO sets up mid-month, but most of it should slide east. If this month ends up delivering, it might just be a bonus for what’s to come.

 

2) I do think December will torch in the West, but much of the country from the Rockies eastward could still be in the icebox with a +PNA/Aleutian Low. It looks like a frigid month with a niño flavor in some ways..interesting combo.

 

3) January is potentially very interesting for the PNW and much of the intermountain West and Northern Plains. There’s a legit shot at a retrogression and high amplitude GOA anticyclone (mid-month?) with a residual anticyclone near Greenland. There could be an obscene amount of cold on our side of the pole at this time (full PV column likely begins to displace into NW Canada). If there’s enough wave amplification..holy sh*t.

November blast potential (most of it slides east) followed by a dud December followed by a pipe dream January. Lol....

It's a classic pnw winter!

Edited October 13, 2019 by Farmboy

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Those showers coming into the coast now look a little more juiced up than I would have expected given what was shown in the models. 

[Deweydog]

To summarize my idea again (for what little it’s worth):

 

I’m anticipating a big time arctic express to set up early for the US this year (likely starting Nov 15-20, +/- 5 days). I’m thinking January is the month to watch in the PNW for the big stuff (November could briefly get wild too) while December looks like a dud. I have no idea about February yet..depends on intraseasonal cycle amplitude vs background state and any potential SSW.

 

1) I think there’s a chance for a legitimate “appetizer” backdoor/continental blast potential in November in the PNW as the behemoth -EPO sets up mid-month, but most of it should slide east. If this month ends up delivering, it might just be a bonus for what’s to come.

 

2) I do think December will torch in the West, but much of the country from the Rockies eastward could still be in the icebox with a +PNA/Aleutian Low. It looks like a frigid month with a niño flavor in some ways..interesting combo.

 

3) January is potentially very interesting for the PNW and much of the intermountain West and Northern Plains. There’s a legit shot at a retrogression and high amplitude GOA anticyclone (mid-month?) with a residual anticyclone near Greenland. There could be an obscene amount of cold on our side of the pole at this time (full PV column likely begins to displace into NW Canada). If there’s enough wave amplification..holy sh*t.

Don’t do this to yourself again.

 

This winter is going night night after early December.

[Jesse]

Like where the 18z goes in the long range.