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10/9 - 10/13 Plains/Upper MW Powerful Winter Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 06 October 2019 - 08:26 AM

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Here we go!  Dust off those snow shovels and gas up 'em snow blowers if you live in the Upper MW as Ol' Man Winter is paying an early visit this year.  Folks, we may be seeing a spectacular open to this new LRC pattern as a potentially explosive storm may be coming together for parts of the Dakotas/MN region.  For instance, today's 12z GFS bombs out this system into the 970's across SW Ontario/N MN and dumps 1-2 Feet of snow.  Where this storm tracks is TBD but the signal is there that we are on the verge of tracking a potential October....bomb???  Winds on the GFS are forecast to gust 40-50 mph across the MN/ND producing Blizzard conditions.  It's crazy to see this region start off right where they left off last Spring!  The atmosphere is getting primed up and the excitement of storm tracking is about to begin. 

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png


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#2
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 October 2019 - 08:39 AM

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Here we go! Dust off those snow shovels and gas up 'em snow blowers if you live in the Upper MW as Ol' Man Winter is paying an early visit this year. Folks, we may be seeing a spectacular open to this new LRC pattern as a potentially explosive storm may be coming together for parts of the Dakotas/MN region. For instance, today's 12z GFS bombs out this system into the 970's across SW Ontario/N MN and dumps 1-2 Feet of snow. Where this storm tracks is TBD but the signal is there that we are on the verge of tracking a potential October....bomb??? Winds on the GFS are forecast to gust 40-50 mph across the MN/ND producing Blizzard conditions. It's crazy to see this region start off right where they left off last Spring! The atmosphere is getting primed up and the excitement of storm tracking is about to begin.


Let's discuss...


snku_acc.us_nc.png


Just got back from church and hadn’t been looking at the models. GFS wants to put accumulating snow down to Central Nebraska. Might be a little generous, but I think we’ll see some flakes Thursday into Friday. Fun to do some tracking in early October.
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#3
Tom

Posted 06 October 2019 - 08:44 AM

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Let's not forget the 2nd season for Severe Wx and our members down south may be dodging some big time storms if this holds together.  Looks like OKWx may be in a good spot to see some late season boomers and possibly up near the KC area.  Lot's of impacts from this storm system including a large and expansive wind shield.


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#4
OKwx2k4

Posted 06 October 2019 - 09:07 AM

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Let's not forget the 2nd season for Severe Wx and our members down south may be dodging some big time storms if this holds together. Looks like OKWx may be in a good spot to see some late season boomers and possibly up near the KC area. Lot's of impacts from this storm system including a large and expansive wind shield.


As the thunder rolls over me today, I couldn't have written it out any better. This is a great event for late November, let alone October.

It's hard to get me awe-stricken to the point of amazement and speechlessness, but run after run, I find it hard to express.

Wow, is an understatement for what is coming. This will, no doubt, be one we remember for a very long time. Closest I can get to what is coming in my mind today is an undocumented 2 hours of flurries this far south in mid-October 2001. We dipped to 31 in the mid-afternoon that day and by 3:40pm it was snowing lightly as I was driving home from school.

Todays 12z GFS is the most impressive run to date and the most impressive I have probably witnessed in 14 years of model watching. 28° temps next weekend are going to be an absolute stunner. I have to go back in nearly a generation to find something close. So amazing.
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#5
jcwxguy

Posted 06 October 2019 - 09:30 AM

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Remember this is the new GFS which grossly exaggerated snowfall amounts last year
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#6
Tom

Posted 06 October 2019 - 09:36 AM

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12z GEFS show a shift in track and has the SLP sit and spin right over the U.P and what looks like a snow shield from NE up into SD/MN.

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#7
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 October 2019 - 10:20 AM

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Remember this is the new GFS which grossly exaggerated snowfall amounts last year


Yeah I was about to say this as well. I do think they should have given it another year to iron out the issues as the FV3 was a horrible model last year.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season: 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#8
Andie

Posted 06 October 2019 - 10:23 AM

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We’ll see rain tonight and 73* tomorrow and 78* Tuesday.
Fri and Sat we’re actually forecast for the 60’s.

Everyone here is so ready to cool off. This summer is weeks longer than it should have been.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#9
MinnyLakes

Posted 06 October 2019 - 10:26 AM

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So far, Euro 12z (still early) is showing gradual pull to north and west each run. We'll see what happens later in the run.



#10
MinnyLakes

Posted 06 October 2019 - 02:27 PM

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18z shows 30" in the RRV of total snowfall as of Sunday morning (doubtful it will verify), with net of 17" snow depth in Fargo. We'll see...Euro had it about 4-6" snow depth, with a bit more north into Grand Forks (6-8" in depth).



#11
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 October 2019 - 02:47 PM

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This early season storm is going to define how legit this GFS upgrade really is. Last winter it didn’t do so well. It continues to be well East of the Euro and GEM. Crazy snow totals coming in.

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#12
MinnyLakes

Posted 06 October 2019 - 03:04 PM

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This early season storm is going to define how legit this GFS upgrade really is. Last winter it didn’t do so well. It continues to be well East of the Euro and GEM. Crazy snow totals coming in.

Euro and GEM seem more reasonable, but we'll see...GFS had issues overdoing snow and it always tends to be too progressive with movement of winter storms also (less so than it used be, but still somewhat IIRC), so initial thought is Euro is probably closer to the truth.


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#13
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 October 2019 - 04:53 PM

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Even Ryan Maue is jumping on the bandwagon. Lol.

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#14
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 06 October 2019 - 06:38 PM

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Not saying were going to get a ton here but last October we did get a few inches around the same exact time last year so it is definitely possible!


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#15
jaster220

Posted 06 October 2019 - 07:28 PM

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Let's not forget the 2nd season for Severe Wx and our members down south may be dodging some big time storms if this holds together.  Looks like OKWx may be in a good spot to see some late season boomers and possibly up near the KC area.  Lot's of impacts from this storm system including a large and expansive wind shield.

 

Should feel like autumn with that in mind, eh?

 

Not saying were going to get a ton here but last October we did get a few inches around the same exact time last year so it is definitely possible!

 

I like your "winter jackpot" zone btw.. ;)



#16
Tom

Posted 07 October 2019 - 03:18 AM

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00z EPS snow mean...courtesy BAMWx.

 

 

EGRCtnvWsAERTsC.jpg


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#17
Niko

Posted 07 October 2019 - 05:51 AM

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Some of these snow amounts are insane. WOW!



#18
jaster220

Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:04 AM

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Some of these snow amounts are insane. WOW!

 

At least by early Oct standards. I'm guessing these early storms were a more common occurrence during the infamous Plains era of the 1880's, which shows the historical significance. 1870's/80's were brutal cold times, not unlike the 1970's/80's a century later. Now, if we get into late Nov and you're are seeing a map like that over Macomb? that WILL BE insane stuff right there! (aka 1974 = 21" in Sterling Hghts & 19.3" DTW)  



#19
Niko

Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:10 AM

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At least by early Oct standards. I'm guessing these early storms were a more common occurrence during the infamous Plains era of the 1880's, which shows the historical significance. 1870's/80's were brutal cold times, not unlike the 1970's/80's a century later. Now, if we get into late Nov and you're are seeing a map like that over Macomb? that WILL BE insane stuff right there! (aka 1974 = 21" in Sterling Hghts & 19.1" DTW)  

Now, that's what I call being inundated by a huge snowstorm. We came close to those numbers here in Macomb back in 2014, when just a little ova 16" fell imby.

 

Seems like a century ago, Winters were a lot colder and snowier.


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#20
jaster220

Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:58 AM

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Now, that's what I call being inundated by a huge snowstorm. We came close to those numbers here in Macomb back in 2014, when just a little ova 16" fell imby.

 

Seems like a century ago, Winters were a lot colder and snowier.

 

Not to discount 16" cuz that IS truly a Big Dog right there, but keep in mind that 19-20" storm was several magnitudes worse. Storm impacts/effects are on an exponential curve kinda like the earth quake scale.  ;)



#21
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 October 2019 - 08:08 AM

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12z GFS pretty much sticking to its guns from previous runs. Maybe a tick west with the heaviest snow. Gotta love it when the first storm of the season is GFS upgrade vs the world.

Snow now officially in the forecast for Friday night. High on Saturday now down to 37.
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#22
Niko

Posted 07 October 2019 - 08:20 AM

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Not to discount 16" cuz that IS truly a Big Dog right there, but keep in mind that 19-20" storm was several magnitudes worse. Storm impacts/effects are on an exponential curve kinda like the earth quake scale.  ;)

Indeed, that is truly an amazing snowfall. No question about it. Anything ova a ft in my books is a remarkable snowevent. Hopefully, we get a few of those this upcoming Winter. ;) :)


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#23
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 October 2019 - 08:32 AM

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While the snowfall amounts and locations are still a mystery, one thing for sure is that this storm will usher in the cold air and keep it in place. A few models showing 2m temps not getting out of the mid 30s for at least a week.
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#24
jaster220

Posted 07 October 2019 - 08:56 AM

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*
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While the snowfall amounts and locations are still a mystery, one thing for sure is that this storm will usher in the cold air and keep it in place. A few models showing 2m temps not getting out of the mid 30s for at least a week.

 

And I think that's the BIG story (for our sub & CONUS) from this whole event. We all know the Plains/Dakotas get their wild massive blizzards at the ends of our typical winter months. But this pattern reversal from HOT to lasting COLD is a huge deal for anywhere it can reach. 1911-12 is not spoken of too much, but that one featured some wicked clashes and crashes like the November 11th "storm of the 11's". 

 

"This is the only day in many midwest cities' weather bureau jurisdictions where the record highs and lows were broken for the same day."

 

https://en.wikipedia...vember_11,_1911

 

It went on to be one of the coldest winters in the history of our country. I'm not saying that's where we're headed, just saying that these early season blasts are similar and reminded me of it. 


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#25
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 October 2019 - 09:01 AM

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^ great stuff Jaster!

#26
bud2380

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:03 AM

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I don't know how to zoom in to a region on this website, I can only figure out how to zoom directly in on a state.  When I zoom in on ND it's showing 4.4" of qpf in the heaviest areas.  

 

Attached File  Capture.PNG   232.17KB   0 downloads



#27
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:04 AM

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Just northwest of Jamestown, ND with a solid first snowstorm of 4’ on the 12z Euro. That’d be a hell of a way to kick off winter.

And how much would it suck to be in Fargo and miss that. Yikes.

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#28
Hawkeye

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:06 AM

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I don't know how to zoom in to a region on this website, I can only figure out how to zoom directly in on a state.  When I zoom in on ND it's showing 4.4" of qpf in the heaviest areas.  

 

Click on "change map selection" and choose "free zoom".


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#29
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:10 AM

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12z GEFS members pulled northwest. Crummy upgrade is always playing catch up with the big boys.
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#30
bud2380

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:15 AM

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Click on "change map selection" and choose "free zoom".

Thanks.



#31
Beltrami Island

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:24 AM

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Just northwest of Jamestown, ND with a solid first snowstorm of 4’ on the 12z Euro. That’d be a hell of a way to kick off winter.

And how much would it suck to be in Fargo and miss that. Yikes.

 

I think I speak for all in the Fargo, Red River Valley, Eastern ND and NW MN:

 

The ground and soil is already saturated and river levels are already at flood advisory stages, any precipitation is not needed in any form.

 

I think I heard on CBC radio this morning that the Red River in Winnipeg is already at record height for October.   


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#32
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:31 AM

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I think I speak for all in the Fargo, Red River Valley, Eastern ND and NW MN:

The ground and soil is already saturated and river levels are already at flood advisory stages, any precipitation is not needed in any form.

I think I heard on CBC radio this morning that the Red River in Winnipeg is already at record height for October.

Yeah, I totally get what you’re saying about the flood situation. No one wants to deal with that. I’m just talking from the potential of seeing a 4-foot snowfall. Doesn’t happen ever often unless you live at a high altitude.

#33
Stormgeek

Posted 07 October 2019 - 11:54 AM

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Can't imagine having 4in liquid equivalent of snow this time of year... That just screams disaster of concrete mixer style snow. Cool to see the first system to track though!

#34
Beltrami Island

Posted 07 October 2019 - 12:19 PM

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Remember though 10:1 snow ratios are probably not the most accurate for early season snowfalls. More likely 5:1 super wet snow that melts from the ground up.
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#35
bud2380

Posted 07 October 2019 - 02:10 PM

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Something I noticed as we're getting into model watching season is that instantweathermaps.com is WAY faster at loading the GFS than Pivotal.  At this moment on the 18z Pivotal is at hour 90 while IWXM is at 135, something to keep in mind for those that are impatient like I am. :) 



#36
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 October 2019 - 02:17 PM

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Nice to see the GFS continue to tick west, more in line with the other globals. Doesn’t bode well for snow accumulation here but that’s OK.

#37
jaster220

Posted 07 October 2019 - 03:29 PM

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^ great stuff Jaster!

 

Thx. And to go along with that theme.. 

 

Temperatures can plunge by 30-60 degrees Fahrenheit in the span of 12-24 hours as the cold air swiftly replaces preceding mild conditions. Billings, Montana, is expected to have a high near 70 on Tuesday, before temperatures plummet into the 20s with an AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature in the teens as snow falls at night.

 

Tom's use of the word historic looks more and more accurate.


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#38
Beltrami Island

Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:27 PM

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This thing reminds me of the 2010 octobomb in ways. That low pressure bottomed out about 60 miles to my se. The dry slot was massive and it was eerily calm like I was in the eye of a hurricane as it passed by.
I wonder if this storm will play out similarly?
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#39
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:54 PM

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Arbitrary stat for October, highlight here is the year, 1911. From a 10/1 news article out of Alabama.

"Huntsville had its hottest October temperature ever when the mercury hit 97 degrees. That broke a previous record set on Oct. 8, 1911."

There is precedent for the dynamics to create what is coming. Wild times ahead is all I can say. Going to copy/paste this to the storm thread as well, since someone mentioned 1911 in there.

The SE may break a temp record or 2 ahead of this thing as well this week with all the lift ahead. This is pretty radical. Even knowing what could happen if it underperformed is still very radical indeed.
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#40
MinnyLakes

Posted 07 October 2019 - 08:21 PM

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0z GFS just a tad west. Moving towards Euro.



#41
Grizzcoat

Posted 07 October 2019 - 10:38 PM

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Euro #'s for Devils Lake,ND-    holy smokes!

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DVL    LAT=  48.12 LON=  -98.92 ELE=  1453

                                            00Z OCT08
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
TUE 00Z 08-OCT  14.3     9.6    1009      49      25             565     557    
TUE 06Z 08-OCT  11.4    12.7    1006      54      14             564     559    
TUE 12Z 08-OCT   9.9    15.1    1003      64      59    0.00     564     561    
TUE 18Z 08-OCT  17.4    15.0    1002      54      30    0.00     565     563    
WED 00Z 09-OCT  15.7    15.8    1002      72      36    0.00     565     563    
WED 06Z 09-OCT  10.8    15.3    1003      87      49    0.00     564     561    
WED 12Z 09-OCT   8.0     8.4    1005      94      20    0.00     563     559    
WED 18Z 09-OCT   6.8     3.2    1010      82      28    0.03     563     555    
THU 00Z 10-OCT   3.9    -0.7    1016      84      47    0.06     563     551    
THU 06Z 10-OCT   2.6    -2.9    1021      83      85    0.02     564     547    
THU 12Z 10-OCT   1.8    -4.3    1021      83      99    0.05     562     545    
THU 18Z 10-OCT   0.8    -5.0    1023      89      93    0.57     562     544    
FRI 00Z 11-OCT   0.4    -5.8    1022      88      98    0.17     560     543    
FRI 06Z 11-OCT   0.6    -6.5    1019      87      98    0.12     558     542    
FRI 12Z 11-OCT   0.4    -5.8    1014      88     100    0.10     553     542    
FRI 18Z 11-OCT   0.5    -5.9    1008      91     101    0.39     548     542    
SAT 00Z 12-OCT   0.6    -5.7    1005      91     104    0.78     541     537    
SAT 06Z 12-OCT   0.6    -5.6    1002      92     102    0.69     538     536    
SAT 12Z 12-OCT   0.5    -5.6    1002      91      92    0.50     537     536    
SAT 18Z 12-OCT   0.9    -5.5    1004      87      87    0.07     539     536    
SUN 00Z 13-OCT   1.0    -5.3    1006      88      59    0.06     541     537    
SUN 06Z 13-OCT   1.0    -4.8    1007      89      50    0.03     543     538    
SUN 12Z 13-OCT   1.1    -4.7    1008      91      79    0.01     543     537    
SUN 18Z 13-OCT   1.6    -4.2    1009      89      51    0.01     545     537 

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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#42
Tom

Posted 08 October 2019 - 02:30 AM

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It's hard to fathom the amount of snow the Euro keeps spitting out run to run along with the GFS.  Both of them are suggesting 2-3 feet somewhere over the Upper MW.  Just an incredible storm is in the works.  #Makin'History

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png

 

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png


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#43
Niko

Posted 08 October 2019 - 05:11 AM

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This storm means business. Wow. Enjoy the snowstorm y'all. That is a lot of snow. ;)



#44
james1976

Posted 08 October 2019 - 06:37 AM

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I cannot believe the amounts that the models are consistantly throwing out

#45
jaster220

Posted 08 October 2019 - 08:35 AM

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With 2m temps above freezing, add warm (& moist) ground. You can cut those totals down a fair amount imho. Still a potent storm by mid-Oct standards.

 

Apparently CPC was so hesitant yesterday afternoon, that they weren't willing to put a "heavy snow zone" outside the mountains: 

 

Attached File  20191007 hazards_d3_7_contours.png   431.58KB   0 downloads


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#46
Grizzcoat

Posted 08 October 2019 - 08:38 AM

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With 2m temps above freezing, add warm (& moist) ground. You can cut those totals down a fair amount imho. Still a potent storm by mid-Oct standards.

 

Apparently CPC was so hesitant yesterday afternoon, that they weren't willing to put a "heavy snow zone" outside the mountains: 

 

attachicon.gif20191007 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

True. But remember ground temps during a snowfall can quickly become colder (cold enough) than 2M temps. Some of the biggest snow events here in DSM the last 5 years have happened with 2M temps at 33F during the heaviest snow. Albeit it was FEB, but temp can be much different at ground level than 2M. 


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#47
jaster220

Posted 08 October 2019 - 08:53 AM

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True. But remember ground temps during a snowfall can quickly become colder (cold enough) than 2M temps. Some of the biggest snow events here in DSM the last 5 years have happened with 2M temps at 33F during the heaviest snow. Albeit it was FEB, but temp can be much different at ground level than 2M. 

 

Same way that the Nov bliz last year robbed Tom's total due to it being the first storm and early one at that. There's more to overcome versus the same parameters later in winter (Feb). I will add that wind may actually help with cooling in this case. Tom's problem last year was those strong winds blowing in off a warm Lake Michigan. 


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#48
St Paul Storm

Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:06 AM

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The Twin Cities largest snowstorm ever (Halloween 1991) started hours after a high of 65 degrees the day before. 28” of snow fell on warm ground. You can talk about warm soil, bottom up melting, 2m temps, etc. But time and time again it’s proven that if it snows heavily, those warm factors can be overcome in a hurry.
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#49
Beltrami Island

Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:55 AM

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There was a Nov 2001 snowstorm in Minnesota that the current storm may play out similar to. Despite it occuring in late November. That November was record warm up until that point. I was in St cloud at the time and got about a foot of snow after nearly 24 hours of rain before changing to wet snow. I remember Wilmar MN having a storm total of 30".
https://www.dnr.stat...torm011127.html
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#50
Clinton

Posted 08 October 2019 - 11:25 AM

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A few tidbits from Lezaks blog this morning on this upcoming storm and this years LRC.

  • There is a strong cold front, and it is well defined. Last year the fronts over the plains were rarely well defined, and certainly nothing like this.
  • The temperature contrast is from the 20s to the 90s.  It will be fun to show this on NBC tonight on KSHB, 41 Action News.
  • The upper level storm system is unlike anything we have seen in years.  Oh, there have been upper lows that have ripped out of the Rocky Mountains, but nothing like this one, and the waves rotating around the storm are so different than anything we experienced a year ago.
  • There is one wave rotating around the base of the storm as you can see below.  This wave will help produce the energy for a few severe thunderstorms, and there is a risk from the SPC
  • And, another wave is forecast to rotate around the main storm that will produce a potential band of rain and thunderstorms in the colder air north and west of the front.  This must be watched to see if this exists in other storm systems this winter. It likely will, but lets see it happen first.

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