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April 2014 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The calendar says its officially Spring, but will April bring any true Spring weather???  CFSv2 paints a glim hope of that happening during the 1st 2 weeks of April.  Blocking and LRC rule the day as the same below normal temperature regime will continue.

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GFS shows a big wet system to start off the month, especially for the western Lakes and Upper Midwest.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Last couple runs of the GFS look similar to what the 12z Euro was showing but way more snow.  Could become a massive cut-off low pressure over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region as we kick off April.  Would be quite the opening to April.  Even half those totals would be amazing for the month.

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-AO/-NAO and a PNA heading positive...a trough in the east, ridge in the west would support the idea of a cold start to April.  Last couple runs of the GFS showing way below normal temperatures to start off the 1st week of the month.

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Money, do you see a pattern change???  I think not and its wishful thinking that its going to get warm anytime soon.  Booked my plane ticket today to leave for AZ April 1st.  Going to enjoy those 80's showing up next week in the desert southwest!   :D  West Coast ridge in full effect! 

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Ahhh, yes...sorry about that...thought it was the storm from the 31st-1st. 

 

OMG, this would be epic if it came true...IA/S WI and extreme N IL would be under a late season Glacier!  LOL  I hope this storm pans out for you guys who want snow when I'm out of town. 

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So both GFS/GGEM go nuclear with snowfall amounts to open up the 1st week of April.  Let's say even half of that amount even comes true, better yet, 1/3 of the amount.  Who's to say I was wish casting for more snow & cold to continue in the month of April when I made that call in the beginning of March???  It's about understanding the pattern and believing what YOU see happening and not model hugging one model run from the other.

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It's going to be all about the blocking. After the storm goes through (HR 120-144) strong blocking comes in and basically makes the storm hit a wall out in NE etc and then re-develops farther south. This time we need blocking to be our friend if we want snow.

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CFSv2 has the AO tanking to around -2.0, NAO -1.5, PNA +1.0...would support enough blocking.  These type of systems are very difficult to track even 2 days out but we get the idea that there is some sort of storm potential for the 1st few days of April.

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Ahhh, yes...sorry about that...thought it was the storm from the 31st-1st.

 

OMG, this would be epic if it came true...IA/S WI and extreme N IL would be under a late season Glacier! LOL I hope this storm pans out for you guys who want snow when I'm out of town.

That might break the record here. Sharp cutoff, but looks like Chicago/ORD area lies in the 6-12" area of that map. Would be amazing to see pan out.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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This storm can go North or South...the only point we can get from the most recent model runs is that there is a possible storm on the way as April opens.  Cubs home opener is April 4th.  What a scene it would be if there was snow on the field by then!

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No offense Tom, but it's getting pretty annoying to read at least half of your posts where you are tooting your own horn saying, " who's been saying all along this would happen or this wouldn't happen?" those posts are just as bad as the 24weatherman posts....  We get it. You've been right a lot of the time(not really with Nebraska), but no need to point that out ALL the time!

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No offense Tom, but it's getting pretty annoying to read at least half of your posts where you are tooting your own horn saying, " who's been saying all along this would happen or this wouldn't happen?" those posts are just as bad as the 24weatherman posts....  We get it. You've been right a lot of the time(not really with Nebraska), but no need to point that out ALL the time!

Thanks...  He rips on us for model hugging, but there have been numerous times recently where he has hammered on storms brewing only to see them die.  It has been a wash rinse repeat winter, and I dont  by the LRC and I sure others dont by it the way he does either, yet we dont ridicule him.

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Those snow maps on Weatherbell are all wet. 850 mb temps may be cold enough in WI, but the 2 m temps are not except at night around 228 hours.

 

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Those snow maps on Weatherbell are all wet. 850 mb temps may be cold enough in WI, but the 2 m temps are not except at night around 228 hours.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_204_0000.gif

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_216_0000.gif

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_228_0000.gif

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_240_0000.gif

 

Come on Geos, you can get snow with 2M temps right around or a tad above freezing.

 

You should know this.

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This is a typical Spring time storm that can generate enough of it's "own" cold air to produce snow if it is strong enough.  We saw a lot of these systems I think it was last winter that would develop in the Plains and even in TX that were cut-off and dumped heavy snows.

 

@ NE Jeremy, wasn't expecting to get under your skin.  It's important for me to get my point across and post the reality of what mother nature has in store for us instead of wishful thinking.

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No offense Tom, but it's getting pretty annoying to read at least half of your posts where you are tooting your own horn saying, " who's been saying all along this would happen or this wouldn't happen?" those posts are just as bad as the 24weatherman posts....  We get it. You've been right a lot of the time(not really with Nebraska), but no need to point that out ALL the time!

 

Not as annoying as Geos/weatherbell talking about how warm it's going to be in the long-range and never happening. Geos has been calling for warm temps since Feb and theweatherman called for winter to end like 3 weeks ago. 

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Not surprising, last I checked this wasn't a forum full of NWS meteorologists...  Everyone just needs to settle down and swallow their pride.  If you were good at this, you'd be doing it for a living. Half of the things people say in here are wish casting, and that's ok!  just accept the fact that that's all it is, and don't act like you can predict the weather.  Hell even the professionals are wrong, a lot of the time.

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Not surprising, last I checked this wasn't a forum full of NWS meteorologists...  Everyone just needs to settle down and swallow their pride.  If you were good at this, you'd be doing it for a living. Half of the things people say in here are wish casting, and that's ok!  just accept the fact that that's all it is, and don't act like you can predict the weather.  Hell even the professionals are wrong, a lot of the time.

That being said, I enjoy reading this forum, and all the information it provides.  Been viewing for 2 years, but just joined fully with the new site changes.  Also, I am not a professional and wishcast all the time :-)

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This storm is a long ways off yet but it sure looks interesting as there is plenty of qpf and cold air to dump on a few locales. If there is any consistency to this into this weekend then it will definitely be something to watch. Whether it be rain or snow there will be alot of it.

 

Haven't looked closely but a possible ice storm as well but that is just a pure guess at this point.

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