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April 2014 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Come on Geos, you can get snow with 2M temps right around or a tad above freezing.

 

You should know this.

 

Not during the day in April! - that would equal a mix or plain rain. Snow doesn't stick well after a heavy rain either.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The largest April snowstorm in the Twin Cities happened on April 14, 1983. A strong area of low pressure had ample moisture to work with and deepened over northern Iowa as it moved to the east and northeast. The event started as rain on the 13th and changed over to snow during the wee hours of April 14th. Persons in east central Minnesota were surprised to wake up to a foot of snow on the ground with brilliant morning sunshine. The grand total at the Twin Cities airport from that storm was 13.6 inches. The Metrodome deflated for the third time since its construction in this storm. (The first two times were Nov 21, 1981 and December 30, 1982.) Over 400 schools canceled class on April 14 and the University of Minnesota shut down at 2:30pm. Residential mail deliveries and pickups were canceled for only the third time in 20 years. The Twin Cities International Airport was shut down for 5 hours from 9am to 2pm on the 14th.

 

 

Storm produced heavy rain the day before and twin cities got 12+ on the ground in mid April.

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On a side note - blocking vanishes over the North Atlantic next week while troughs are dominant along the west coast/south of AK.

 

 

Replaced with troughs of Greenland further out.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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On a side note - blocking vanishes over the North Atlantic next week while troughs are dominant along the west coast/south of AK.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_2_nh.gif

 

Replaced with troughs of Greenland further out.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_3_nh.gif

don't see any blocking south of alaska so the jet stream is flowing from west to east by then.

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Tom.  I hope the GGEM verifies.  Would be a nice snowstorm for most of Nebraska and others.

Going out on a limb here and first call is 1'-2' from Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota to central/lower Wisconsin to parts of Michigan. Northern IL will be in a tough spot with rain/snow and ice. HP to the north will keep a nice feed of cold air into this storm with plenty of abundant moisture. Hopefully this will be the last gasp of winter with a monster storm to end it!

 

Just my take of the situation so far as the models will probably change a million times.

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EURO has mid 60s here sunday at least that will feel nice.  If its gonna be cold next week might as well snow.  I just have my doubts. 1' to 2' really???

You are in a great spot and with all this moisture I say why can't it happen. Its all going to depend on how much cold air is funneled into this system. Its a slow mover as well which will only enhance the areas that do receive snow. Maybe I'm way off on this and I will be kicking myself come next week but like you said, if its gonna be cold might as well snow!

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EURO out to 54 hours on WXbell.

It's moving, but at a snail's pace.

 

Cut off lows are a beast to forecast...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Interesting write up from des moines:

THE TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW NEXT  WEEK WITH NUMEROUS STRONG SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. DEVELOPING  SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN  SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE WARM FRONT  JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT  IMPACT THE FROZEN GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM  FRONTS LIFTING NORTH. THIS EVENT WOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF  THE LAKES AND POINTING TOWARD IOWA AND LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT  OF THE BOUNDARY.  
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Wunderground only showing maps thru 174hr, doesn't go past then.  I have to wait for Wx Bell maps to load.  Looks like the system intensifies as it heads east and a lot of cold air funneling into the system from the HP to the north.

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12z Euro takes a classic bowling ball type CO LOW ejecting out of the leeward side of the Rockies just east of Denver, CO and heads due east towards KC.

You have no idea how long Nebraskans have been waiting for this type of storm. Good hit for us from 12z EURO Tom??

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Right now it looks like 3-6", maybe 7" for NE...I'm really hoping this system pans out for you guys out there.  Wouldn't get your hopes up just yet bc this winter we have seen these type of systems 5+ days out and then turn out to be a 4 corners Pan Handle Hook.  Right now there is a lot of model consistency of a CO LOW type storm.

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12Z Euro is a really snowy run. My fear is that this will be gone in a few days. Cant see us all getting 6-10+. GFS shows nothing. I have witnessed April snowstorms before, but I'm still skeptical of this.  This storm would impact us April 2-3. If this keeps showing up, then we might be on to something. 

ecmwf_tsnow_mw_41 March 26.png

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