Jump to content

10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm


Tom

Recommended Posts

After reviewing the overnight model runs, it has prompted me to start this storm thread.  Confidence is growing that there may be a strong storm system effecting portions of the Plains up into the GL's region around the Holiday.  There have been encouraging ensemble trends among the various models which I will provide below.

 

Let's discuss....

 

First off, let's take a look at both the GEFS/GEPS 24-hour precip maps below that are starting to "see" the threat as there are noticeable (West) shifts in track/precip.  I expect this to continue over the coming days.  Second, the 00z EPS has trended towards the secondary/stronger southern wave to dig deep into the S Plains and then take a hard turn up towards OHV/GL's.  Another trend is the amount of blocking developing across W NAMER which allows this to suppress the pattern.  A big clue and feature of this new evolving pattern.

 

00z Euro lays down a large swath of snow from CO/KS/NE/IA/WI/N IL....IA/WI being the epicenter this run which shows a band of 6-10" while parts of LNK/OMA/KC receiving a moderate snowfall of 4-6". 

 

Let the games begin...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder how much this tropical ingest is messin with the models wrt next week's potential? Be nice if we find our way back to some of the explosive runs flashed yesterday. Don't have time to dig for it, but hearing that more than half GEFS members now show a storm. Baby steps..

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My wife & I just moved from Chicago in Cook county all the way up to Poplar Grove, IL in Boone county. I didn’t think I’d be monitoring maps before November, but it’s nice to be in a snowier spot starting this season.

  • Like 5

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Total precip on the UK.  Difficult to say what is snow or not, but I think a lot of that in Iowa will be snow.

 

Yeah, the first surface wave should be sufficiently far southeast to produce snow here.  Same goes for wave 2.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one negative I'm seeing this Euro run is the first wave is warmer and has the 850 mb freezing line just nw of Cedar Rapids through much of the precip.  That suggests mostly rain here.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019102512_102_5660_323.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On thing I guess I do like about this setup is even though models have a wide spectrum of solutions, most of them end up with a snowy system somewhere. Even the solutions that focus on the first wave moreso than the second still drop a seasonably wide band of 1-3".

  • Like 2

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think even seeing just some snow fall with minor accumulations would be pretty cool, because I don't expect it to stick around for long anyway. Just a little taste of what hopefully turns into an active winter. If I could turn some of my rainfall this year into snowfall, that would be great.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5819

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 3

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 5819

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5819

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5819

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...