November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

imagine that. GFS caving....

[jaster220]

0z GFS follower to recent ICON/Euro runs for the Vet's Day wave. Could be a decent event for many in our sub

[Hawkeye]

Is the GFS simply going to be chasing the other models all winter?  That won't be much help.

[jaster220]

imagine that. GFS caving....

 

I'd call it more like "getting a clue"

[Clinton]

Is the GFS simply going to be chasing the other models all winter?

Looks that way hasn't been the leader in any of the winter storms so far.

[jaster220]

Is the GFS simply going to be chasing the other models all winter?

 

after all, Leaders need followers

[clintbeed1993]

This weather pattern is atrocious if you aren't in the great lakes.  I'd much rather have nice temperatures if it's going to be this dry. We can skip this during the winter months, thanks.

[Niko]

Not too impressed w Mondays system. Still time to see what happens. I'd say an inch or 2 at best followed by frigid air.

[Niko]

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Canadian with an I-80 special.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h&rh=2019110800&fh=90&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Minny_Weather]

00Z Canadian with an I-80 special.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h&rh=2019110800&fh=90&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

Imagine that, I live a quarter mile from I-80.

[Madtown]

Sure why not...12.6" on the year. Average is .8" old record 6.1". Temp atm is 13. I love it, but it's a little insane, still hoping this doesnt bite us later in winter with 55 n sunny in Jan to even this out.

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro still has the stripe of snow through Iowa, but it's becoming drier each run.  This run is pretty light.

[snowstorm83]

OAX posted a graphic showing how we could flirt with record low highs on Monday. 21-25 range. Too bad the precipitation along the arctic front is fizzling out. Best chance of anything looks to be around Norfolk. 

[Tom]

Happy TGIF!!!  Novembrrrr continues with impressive early season cold as I'm experiencing the coldest air of the season (17F).  Yesterday's high at ORD was mid-winter chill (31F) and it confirms my LR call that we would see this type of cold in early November, but what is coming early next week is even wilder which is crazy to think.

 

 

 

 

Models are still wavering on the strength of the Veteran's Day system, so we'll see how today's runs go.  If they still show something decent, I'll go ahead and start a thread later today and also include the Arctic Wave/LES event along with it which is going to likely be Historic for many of us.  Natures 1-2 punch....

[Tom]

Boom!  06z GEFS starting to hit the idea of the beginning of LRC cycle #2 on 11/22????  SW Flow, NE PAC ridge, Greenland Block and there is that SER....boy, those 10mb/30mb maps I use are dynamite when looking for LR clues.

 

 

[Clinton]

Boom!  06z GEFS starting to hit the idea of the beginning of LRC cycle #2 on 11/22????  SW Flow, NE PAC ridge, Greenland Block and there is that SER....boy, those 10mb/30mb maps I use are dynamite when looking for LR clues.

 

 

If it verifies that might make for a stormy Thanksgiving, lets make all the holidays white!

[Tom]

If it verifies that might make for a stormy Thanksgiving, lets make all the holidays white!

Stormy Thanksgiving is on my calendar using the BSR and quite possibly the cycling LRC....

[Minny_Weather]

The TV stations and CLE both are pushing the idea of records being broken next week, saying forecasted temps probably aren't even low enough. I don't even think this even close to low enough.

 

 

[westMJim]

Good morning!  Boy it is much colder here at my house then at the airport that is about 15 miles to my SE. The low here at my house was 16 and the current temperature is still just 17. But the official low at GRR looks to be a much warmer 23 but then again we do not live at the airport. The official H/L (at the airport) for yesterday was 34/24. For today the average H/L  at Grand Rapids is 51/35 the record high is 72 set in 2009 and the record low is 16 set in 1991. The record snow fall for today is 7.5” set in 1921. Last year the H/L was 40/37

[FarmerRick]

The TV stations and CLE both are pushing the idea of records being broken next week, saying forecasted temps probably aren't even low enough. I don't even think this even close to low enough.

  

 

Doesn't look that cold to me...

Here's OAX(I'm taking the bike for a cruise tomorrow ):

 

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Veterans Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 8.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 27.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

 

[Stacsh]

Ugh, looking like N to NNW winds for LES next week.  Looks like the Lakeshore will benefit only.  Record cold with no snow for GR is going to suck.  

[jaster220]

I used to snowmobile into Fife Lake. It's about 20 miles inland from my former home. Nice hit there overnight

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
756 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 SW FIFE LAKE 44.55N 85.38W
11/08/2019 E16.0 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI BROADCAST MEDIA

24 HR TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM. REPORT RELAYED BY LOCAL MEDIA.

[Stacsh]

I used to snowmobile into Fife Lake. It's about 20 miles inland from my former home. Nice hit there overnight

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI

756 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2019

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

0700 AM SNOW 2 SW FIFE LAKE 44.55N 85.38W

11/08/2019 E16.0 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI BROADCAST MEDIA

 

24 HR TOTAL THROUGH 7 AM. REPORT RELAYED BY LOCAL MEDIA.

The double lake effect snow must be intense.  

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Arctic cold front remains on schedule to push southward through the
forecast area early Monday morning. Model data has been showing a
consistency in a return of strong upper level jet dyanmics over the
region. Timing of the ageostrophic response along the baroclinic
zone is the main item to focus on for the Monday system. The
potential exists for a good frontal wave response and high impact
snow event for Southeast Michigan Monday. Temperatures to crater
early next week.

[jaster220]

CLE's take on next week. I would like to make a side note and say I wish IWX or DTX would take Lucas, Wood, and Hancock Counties off CLE's hands. 90% of the subject matter in CLE's AFDs are focused in the snowbelt, it's almost as if their Western CWA doesn't exist sometimes. Western PA to NW Ohio is too big of a territory for a WFO to cover imo, especially considering the density of the population in this region. I mean look at this, they barely even delve into the possible system snow before going right onto the LES component.

 

Same here for Calhoun and Jackson wrt GRR. Very rare is the day when proper attention is given to any synoptic impacts down my way. It's always about LES impacts from Kzoo up to GRR's back yard. It's beyond frustrating, so get used to that. sorry to say. 

[Niko]

Sunny and gorgeous but cold. Temps are at 24F.

[Niko]

All mets are now hinting on a potential snowstorm for SEMI next week followed by bitter cold. Lows in the single digits w a good amt of snow cover, clear skies will do the job. Highs between 20-25F. Lets see what models show today. Still early in the game and lots could change.

[james1976]

DMX currently going with 1-2" with the arctic front.

[bud2380]

ICON dried up big time with the arctic front.  The NAM is well north into Minnesota and Wisconsin with all the forcing.  GFS maybe ended up being more right than wrong with this one.  Still time to go, but at this point I wouldn't expect anything more than an inch here.

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna be extremely difficult to get anything exciting out of the arctic front. Models had been over doing it. Cold, dry air gonna squash many hopes.

[Stacsh]

Every run is more depressing.  Shot of extreme cold, then it retreats to blah with no storms.

[Tom]

The Canadian trying to put something interesting together...

 

 

[james1976]

The Canadian trying to put something interesting together...

 

 

That's what I call sharing the wealth...

[Clinton]

So is the GFS

[Tom]

I just find it hard to believe that this system dries up knowing how wet storms have been this season.  Might be the case where the models in the medium range are having difficulties.  The 12z JMA from yesterday was very well organized and quite wet.  Let's see what it shows today.

 

[Niko]

I just find it hard to believe that this system dries up knowing how wet storms have been this season.  Might be the case where the models in the medium range are having difficulties.  The 12z JMA from yesterday was very well organized and quite wet.  Let's see what it shows today.

 

If I am not mistaken, that spits 10" of snow imby. Not too shabby.

[jaster220]

NOAA:

 

Arctic cold front remains on schedule to push southward through the

forecast area early Monday morning. Model data has been showing a

consistency in a return of strong upper level jet dyanmics over the

region. Timing of the ageostrophic response along the baroclinic

zone is the main item to focus on for the Monday system. The

potential exists for a good frontal wave response and high impact

snow event for Southeast Michigan Monday. Temperatures to crater

early next week.

 

All mets are now hinting on a potential snowstorm for SEMI next week followed by bitter cold. Lows in the single digits w a good amt of snow cover, clear skies will do the job. Highs between 20-25F. Lets see what models show today. Still early in the game and lots could change.

 

Good Luck amigo!  I'll say it again, Detroit has ALWAYS done well in a pattern with over-whelming cold. (should extend to our new KTOL partner as well)

[jaster220]

I just find it hard to believe that this system dries up knowing how wet storms have been this season.  Might be the case where the models in the medium range are having difficulties.  The 12z JMA from yesterday was very well organized and quite wet.  Let's see what it shows today.

 

 

This is an "everything must go right" scenario, and that JMA run did just that. Timing is more crucial imho than with the typical set-up. Nonetheless, as you've noted, storms have been moist, and generally get amped around the GL's so far, thus this season's trends would lean in favor. Even that frontal wave the other evening amped at the last minute, dishing out 6+ in numerous locales. 

 

Nice look from that JMA run. Good starting position for the Surf Low

 

 

 

 

EDIT - A snow map off that run should be eye candy over my way. Do they have that on another site??

[Tom]

This is an "everything must go right" scenario, and that JMA run did just that. Timing is more crucial imho than with the typical set-up. Nonetheless, as you've noted, storms have been moist, and generally get amped around the GL's so far, thus this season's trends would lean in favor. Even that frontal wave the other evening amped at the last minute, dishing out 6+ in numerous locales. 

 

Nice look from that JMA run. Good starting position for the Surf Low

 

20191107 12z JMA MSLP & hgt anoms.png

 

20191107 12z jma_T850_us_fh96-168.gif

 

 

EDIT - A snow map off that run should be eye candy over my way. Do they have that on another site??

I have yet to find one but I do believe WeatherModels.com has the JMA snow maps...I think