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November 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#851
jaster220

Posted Today, 06:39 AM

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:D Whoa! Just need this with some colder air around

 

Attached File  20191118 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh216-252.gif   1.56MB   0 downloads


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#852
Niko

Posted Today, 06:43 AM

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:D Whoa! Just need this with some colder air around

 

attachicon.gif20191118 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh216-252.gif

A little more south per track would be nice also and game on.


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#853
Niko

Posted Today, 06:46 AM

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Plenty of time for the TG Day storm. Expect plenty of changes from today till middle of next week.


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#854
Stacsh

Posted Today, 07:27 AM

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Plenty of time for the TG Day storm. Expect plenty of changes from today till middle of next week.

 Hope so, but not a lot of HP north of here to supply cold air for Michigan for the next 10 days.  Rain storm after rain storm.  Hopefully the  storminess stay active during the winter.  



#855
Niko

Posted Today, 07:37 AM

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 Hope so, but not a lot of HP north of here to supply cold air for Michigan for the next 10 days.  Rain storm after rain storm.  Hopefully the  storminess stay active during the winter.  

I see your point, but keep in mind that models are not seeing the foreseeable pattern and are playing catch-up attm.


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#856
St Paul Storm

Posted Today, 07:39 AM

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It pains me to say this, but congrats to the GFS for sniffing out the Wed system this week. Looks like the northern stream is going to interact enough to produce a decent storm. Still unsure about snow potential here but good to see things picking up on the western edge of the sub.
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#857
Niko

Posted Today, 07:39 AM

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It has been a week now w full snowcover. Beautiful Winter Wonderland it has been in mby. I am down to about 3-5".


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#858
westMJim

Posted Today, 07:44 AM

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Yesterday here at Grand Rapids the official H/L was 39/20. For today the average H/L is now at 46/32. The record high is 70 set in 2016 and the record low is 11 set in 1959. The most snow fall on this date is 9.6” in 2014. At this time it is currently 40 here with mostly sunny skies. The snow is not all gone except for the snow piles. Last year on this date the H/L was 38/28.



#859
jaster220

Posted Today, 07:47 AM

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A little more south per track would be nice also and game on.

 

haha, can't be greedy. I'd live with the messiness of that track in order to get a wound-up beast as depicted. A rain to snow scenario is much more likely this time of year anyways. JB has it tracking further south thru the OHV fwiw. Said we are entering a great pattern for snow, and quite a bit of the eastern CONUS could be covered by month's end. It's still too far out for models to get any kind of handle on this imho. Just fun watching eye-candy runs and painting "what if" scenarios for now. 


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#860
jaster220

Posted Today, 07:54 AM

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It has been a week now w full snowcover. Beautiful Winter Wonderland it has been in mby. I am down to about 3-5".

 

Yep. Odd driving into work so many days with snow cover like it's #realwinter


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#861
Niko

Posted Today, 08:01 AM

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haha, can't be greedy. I'd live with the messiness of that track in order to get a wound-up beast as depicted. A rain to snow scenario is much more likely this time of year anyways. JB has it tracking further south thru the OHV fwiw. Said we are entering a great pattern for snow, and quite a bit of the eastern CONUS could be covered by month's end. It's still too far out for models to get any kind of handle on this imho. Just fun watching eye-candy runs and painting "what if" scenarios for now. 

That is how I see it happening eventually, considering where the position of SER will be situated and GB as well.



#862
Niko

Posted Today, 08:04 AM

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Yep. Odd driving into work so many days with snow cover like it's #realwinter

I know..crazy snowy November it has been. It feels and looks like Winter out there.


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#863
bud2380

Posted Today, 09:13 AM

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Canadian continues to advertise a potent weekend system in Kansas and Missouri.  Euro has this as well, but further north and considerably weaker.  GFS has no sniff of this.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#864
Stormhunter87

Posted Today, 09:23 AM

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Gfs has the storms but running warm... hmm

#865
Clinton

Posted Today, 09:29 AM

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Canadian continues to advertise a potent weekend system in Kansas and Missouri.  Euro has this as well, but further north and considerably weaker.  GFS has no sniff of this.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Thats perfect for me but I will be in Branson that weekend.


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#866
jaster220

Posted Today, 09:49 AM

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Canadian continues to advertise a potent weekend system in Kansas and Missouri.  Euro has this as well, but further north and considerably weaker.  GFS has no sniff of this.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

I scanned temp profiles and the GEM is by far the coldest global at that time stamp Sat morning. All the others are marginal and warm into the 30's during the day. Not saying it's wrong, but from this range it's a bit on it's own with such a cold solution. Overnight Euro has a decent system too, but takes the snow further north and/or NE where it sees enough cold to support a decent snow event. As said by others, GFS is about the warmest game in town attm.  

 

Euro temps Sat morning

 

Attached File  20191118 0z_Euro 2m AGL_h132.png   243.84KB   1 downloads

 


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#867
Niko

Posted Today, 10:07 AM

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Thats perfect for me but I will be in Branson that weekend.

That looks like a good snowevent there. Hope it verifies for ya. But, if you are in Branson....... :blink:


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#868
Clinton

Posted Today, 10:16 AM

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That looks like a good snowevent there. Hope it verifies for ya. But, if you are in Branson....... :blink:

Euro has some snow here Friday evening but it's weak very weak.



#869
Niko

Posted Today, 10:23 AM

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Euro has some snow here Friday evening but it's weak very weak.

Hopefully, that changes. Also, better to get at least some snow then nothing I guess. ;)


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#870
Niko

Posted Today, 10:25 AM

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Just went outside and man, my snowcover is taking a beating from what I saw. I think by Thursday, especially w that rainstorm coming, it will all be melted away. Well, cannot complaint at all. We had it real sweet here through most of November so far.

 

ATTM, its partly cloudy and temps still BN. At 44F. It feels balmy.


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#871
Niko

Posted Today, 10:26 AM

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I scanned temp profiles and the GEM is by far the coldest global at that time stamp Sat morning. All the others are marginal and warm into the 30's during the day. Not saying it's wrong, but from this range it's a bit on it's own with such a cold solution. Overnight Euro has a decent system too, but takes the snow further north and/or NE where it sees enough cold to support a decent snow event. As said by others, GFS is about the warmest game in town attm.  

 

Euro temps Sat morning

 

attachicon.gif20191118 0z_Euro 2m AGL_h132.png

That cold air barely ova my region. Just enough to provide some frozen precipitation.


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#872
Stormhunter87

Posted Today, 10:47 AM

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Euro still coming in hot with that turkey day storm. Of course it dumps the hardest through central Kansas when we are going to be traveling there.
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#873
Clinton

Posted Today, 10:49 AM

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12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.

1574834400-6A3JcWtMGps.png


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#874
Niko

Posted Today, 10:55 AM

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Euro still coming in hot with that turkey day storm. Of course it dumps the hardest through central Kansas when we are going to be traveling there.

Any more bets going on??!! :lol: ;)



#875
Tom

Posted Today, 10:56 AM

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12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.
1574834400-6A3JcWtMGps.png


That run is exactly what I needed to see as the blocking slowlys down the storm and it occludes near the GL’s.
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#876
Niko

Posted Today, 10:57 AM

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12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.

1574834400-6A3JcWtMGps.png

Wow..that looks impressive. Due east south east movement or further south track and we amigo are in business. :D


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#877
Clinton

Posted Today, 10:59 AM

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That run is exactly what I needed to see as the blocking slowlys down the storm and it occludes near the GL’s.

No doubt.  I bet Gary no longer thinks it's a much longer cycle this year.  Look at these totals+

1574942400-FRR8chAwhhg.png


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#878
Clinton

Posted Today, 11:01 AM

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Wow..that looks impressive. Due east south east movement or further south track and we amigo are in business. :D

I think it may track a little further SE but that will be very close, good run by the Euro.


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#879
Niko

Posted Today, 11:04 AM

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I think it may track a little further SE but that will be very close, good run by the Euro.

It will be a fun storm to track. Looks like it has a ton of moisture w it. GOM open for business.


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#880
Clinton

Posted Today, 11:06 AM

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It will be a fun storm to track. Looks like it has a ton of moisture w it. GOM open for business.

It's juiced!  Lets hope we get a SE trend.


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#881
Niko

Posted Today, 11:08 AM

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It's juiced!  Lets hope we get a SE trend.

I think we have a shot at it. :D


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#882
St Paul Storm

Posted Today, 11:08 AM

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12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.
1574834400-6A3JcWtMGps.png


Only 200+ hours to go. Lock it in....
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#883
Tom

Posted Today, 11:12 AM

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No doubt. I bet Gary no longer thinks it's a much longer cycle this year. Look at these totals+
1574942400-FRR8chAwhhg.png

Ya, I think he’s going to re-evaluate his thoughts. A lot of things are lining up at 500mb that suggests the start of LRC cycle #2. Fun times ahead for those who will be in the storms path. This will be a beast. #WhiteThanksgiving
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#884
bud2380

Posted Today, 11:14 AM

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Closer look of the Euro at 10:1.  A front end thump in eastern Iowa but then turns to rain or this would be huge over here.  Still hits many areas hard.  Plenty of time to go, but definitely a good trend we are seeing from the Euro. 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png


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#885
Clinton

Posted Today, 11:15 AM

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Ya, I think he’s going to re-evaluate his thoughts. A lot of things are lining up at 500mb that suggests the start of LRC cycle #2. Fun times ahead for those who will be in the storms path. This will be a beast. #WhiteThanksgiving

And remember we will get this pattern again in mid Jan.  Jet will be stronger then as well.


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#886
Stormhunter87

Posted Today, 11:16 AM

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Any more bets going on??!! :lol: ;)

Nah lol except maybe betting I can drive through this storm lol.

#887
Clinton

Posted Today, 11:17 AM

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Only 200+ hours to go. Lock it in....

There is good reason to have high confidence in this solution, track could still fluctuate some.


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#888
St Paul Storm

Posted Today, 11:21 AM

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There is good reason to have high confidence in this solution, track could still fluctuate some.


For sure buddy! Just wish it wasn’t 200 hours out. I’d say almost without a doubt someone is going to have a very white turkey day.
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#889
Clinton

Posted Today, 11:24 AM

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For sure buddy! Just wish it wasn’t 200 hours out. I’d say almost without a doubt someone is going to have a very white turkey day.

I can't wait either this will be a blast!