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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#1
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 October 2019 - 04:44 PM

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Here comes a pattern reset?
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 October 2019 - 04:55 PM

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Back to a drought pattern in the PNW after an unusually wet July-September.
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#3
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2019 - 11:10 PM

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Think Cold and SNOW!!!!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 17 minutes


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#4
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 October 2019 - 11:11 PM

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Night shift
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#5
MossMan

Posted 31 October 2019 - 11:18 PM

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Now we can officially start talking about snow chances! Welcome to the winter season 2019/20!
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#6
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2019 - 11:27 PM

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Night shift

Possibly in between working on music. I can't guarantee it though. I wish we had something on the models that was really worth pulling an all-nighter.

 

12z GEM in 8 hours 44 minutes



#7
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2019 - 11:30 PM

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Now we can officially start talking about snow chances! Welcome to the winter season 2019/20!

Happy Winter Season!


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#8
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2019 - 11:54 PM

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Not really november related, but one thing I find interesting about this year is the fact February and October have been outstandingly cold months (both top 10%) while the rest of the months this year have largely been above normal.  Kind of an odd arrangement.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 

Coldest Low = 28

Lows 32 or below = 14

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#9
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:00 AM

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Not really november related, but one thing I find interesting about this year is the fact February and October have been outstandingly cold months (both top 10%) while the rest of the months this year have largely been above normal.  Kind of an odd arrangement.

Yeah, and the first two weeks of March were INSANE too. Cold, snow! Who saw that coming? No one.



#10
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:05 AM

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00z WRF 1.33km hi-res Wind Gust model paints 40-50mph gusts East of I-205 over my location today. Not sure this will verify probably more in the 25-40mph range. I do like my east wind though! It's already quite breezy.

 

74205833_10218912501795264_6684842362562


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#11
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:22 AM

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00z CMCE for Yakima much to my surprise still shows some cold members hinting at a slight chance for more backdoor cold.

 

73320665_10218912679079696_3670144889821



#12
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:41 AM

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00z EPS was a festival of turds. That bad.



#13
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:31 AM

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Now we can officially start talking about snow chances! Welcome to the winter season 2019/20!

 

One more month until the meteorological winter starts.


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#14
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:17 AM

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00z EPS was a festival of turds. That bad.

 

 

00Z EPS:

 

5-10 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-


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#15
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:26 AM

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One more month until the meteorological winter starts.

Winter in Mossman’s book is 11/1 thru 3/31.

#16
Rubus Leucodermis

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:59 AM

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Frosty and 30˚F this morning here.



#17
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:53 AM

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Yesterdays Halloween weather was outstanding (Tigard Or)
59* degree afternoon 

a sliver of the moon during sunset

40s for trick or treating 

85 treaters showed up between the hours of 6-9......par for the course out here unless on the weekend 

 

 

 

 

Attached Files


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#18
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:56 AM

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Last day of October registered 56 degrees for a high and 25 for a low. My weather station was off for a little while between moves so won't be able to pull official October numbers for the month, unfortunately.

 

Anyways, this is the November thread so let's throw a November number out there - starting the day off at 25 degrees, a seemingly common low temp lately.



#19
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:56 AM

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39* in se Portland with a East wind breeze

Lovely morning 


Layman’s terms please 😁

#20
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:58 AM

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Started November out with a frosty 29 degrees.

 

Definitely ready for the rain and storms at some point.


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#21
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:01 AM

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Yesterdays Halloween weather was outstanding (Tigard Or)
59* degree afternoon 

a sliver of the moon during sunset

40s for trick or treating 

85 treaters showed up between the hours of 6-9......par for the course out here unless on the weekend 

 

Are you sure Tigard was close to 60? I can't find any official station in the metro area or the Willamette Valley that even cracked 55 yesterday.



#22
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:05 AM

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Lows this morning were colder than forecast, but not surprising with a cool dry low level airmass still in place. Some impressive 5 minute obs this morning, we'll see at 11 what the official lows were.

 

PDX  30

SLE 28

EUG 27

 

Bit of an inversion developing, I only made it down to 32 briefly. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#23
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:08 AM

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Salem ended with a monthly mean of 49.3, easily blowing by 1969 for 4th coldest October on record. 7 freezes and a -3.9 departure. 

 

Eugene 49.4, 9 freezes, -3.3 departure

 

Portland 51.5, 2 freezes, -3.4 departure


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#24
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:15 AM

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Lows this morning were colder than forecast, but not surprising with a cool dry low level airmass still in place. Some impressive 5 minute obs this morning, we'll see at 11 what the official lows were.

PDX 30
SLE 28
EUG 27

Bit of an inversion developing, I only made it down to 32 briefly.


I could actually imagine the first 5-7 day’s of November ending up a little below average, with cool, dry air in place at the surface and chilly mornings. Afternoons don’t look outlandishly warm at this point.

#25
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:21 AM

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A week from now.. a warm West and cold East pattern is well established.

 

gfs_T2ma_us_31.png


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#26
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:23 AM

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I could actually imagine the first 5-7 day’s of November ending up a little below average, with cool, dry air in place at the surface and chilly mornings. Afternoons don’t look outlandishly warm at this point.

 

That is true. Today should manage some decent departures. November is a month, weather wise I usually just want to get through. It has probably snowed in the valley more in March than November during my lifetime.  


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#27
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:26 AM

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That is true. Today should manage some decent departures. November is a month, weather wise I usually just want to get through. It has probably snowed in the valley more in March than November during my lifetime.


I like November. Summer too. No need to rush through lyfe.

#28
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:37 AM

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Are you sure Tigard was close to 60? I can't find any official station in the metro area or the Willamette Valley that even cracked 55 yesterday.

i was getting pretty warm out there during the Halloween setup so just did a quick wunderground check and went by the first station that it latched onto in my area.  Didn’t question it as it felt that warm!  Do I need to lawyer up? Dewey!!!

Attached Files


Layman’s terms please 😁

#29
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:45 AM

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i was getting pretty warm out there during the Halloween setup so just did a quick wunderground check and went by the first station that it latched onto in my area. Didn’t question it as it felt that warm! Do I need to lawyer up? Dewey!!!


Given the nature of this case/the respective biases being presented, I have no doubt in my mind he’ll represent you. ;)

Given temp profiles everywhere else, I highly doubt it was close to 60 yesterday at that location, though. Sounds like an overexposed reading. 🤓
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#30
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:45 AM

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Snapshot of the month from my humble abode 
Precipitation 3.17 for October 

 

Attached Files


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#31
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:03 AM

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Clear and calm last night. Which allowed for a very light frost and a low of 34F.

GEM gets pretty close with a clipper like system middle of next week

#32
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:04 AM

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A week from now.. a warm West and cold East pattern is well established.

gfs_T2ma_us_31.png

Better to be warm now. I’ll take my snow and cold in December!
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#33
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:10 AM

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Given the nature of this case/the respective biases being presented, I have no doubt in my mind he’ll represent you. ;)

Given temp profiles everywhere else, I highly doubt it was close to 60 yesterday at that location, though. Sounds like an overexposed reading.

I  agree, I usually do some poking around to verify a reading but my focus was showtime ready for the kids and parents.  Chemistry class flashback! My number is out of whack with the +/- of the rest of the class......ugh....after school again to rework the experiment and numbers lol


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#34
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:10 AM

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Tim will like the 12z GFS.


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#35
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:11 AM

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The other scenario that could play out over the next 6-8 weeks is the cold east/warm west situation is replaced with strong zonal flow and a coast to coast blow torch.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#36
Kayla

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:19 AM

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Thanksgiving.


It’s practically December this year!!

Cold Season 2019/20:

Total snowfall: 39.5"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 12.0º

Coldest low: -9.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#37
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:29 AM

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Given that pretty much half the people in my office have been out for most of the past two months due to various illnesses and injury, I have decided to take the week between Christmas and New Year's off. Really hope we get blasted. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#38
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:07 AM

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A week from now.. a warm West and cold East pattern is well established.

gfs_T2ma_us_31.png


Don’t get a b@ner Tim.
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#39
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:39 AM

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The other scenario that could play out over the next 6-8 weeks is the cold east/warm west situation is replaced with strong zonal flow and a coast to coast blow torch.


That’s probably the least likely outcome, in my view. There are no years with impotent, under-developed jets at this point in the seasonal cycle on the low pass that went on to become zonal years.

Of course, there are always intraseasonal cycles, and there’s a (relatively) zonal period coming up for mid-Nov, but that’s an aberration from the background state.

Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily


#40
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:01 PM

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Don’t get a b@ner Tim.

2002/03.

#41
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:15 PM

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CFS is showing colder than average temperatures and above average precip for December.

 

RIP December 2019.


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No rain here until Hour 258.

#42
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:24 PM

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For the first time in November of 2019, ladies and gentlemen:

Low solar.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#43
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:31 PM

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Feels like October out there!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#44
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:46 PM

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Would be nice to get a little rain to knock the dust down.

#45
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:16 PM

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GFS HR 384! 😯

#46
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:23 PM

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GFS HR 384!

 

 

I assume you are referring to the cold in my home state right?

 

gfs_T850a_us_65.png

 

 

Interestingly... the 18Z GFS does not show colder than normal 850mb temps at all for us the entire run.


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#47
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:31 PM

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Attached File  g3 18z.png   89.12KB   2 downloads


  • iFred, Chris, Frontal Snowsquall and 2 others like this

#48
iFred

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:34 PM

iFred

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I assume you are referring to the cold in my home state right?

 

gfs_T850a_us_65.png

 

 

Interestingly... the 18Z GFS does not show colder than normal 850mb temps at all for us the entire run.

 

Yup, winter was over before it even began.


  • IbrChris and Frontal Snowsquall like this

#49
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:38 PM

TT-SEA

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Yup, winter was over before it even began.


Warm Novembers are usually a great sign.
  • ShawniganLake likes this

#50
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:43 PM

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00z GFS in 3 hours 43 minutes

 

Get ready for a real s**t fest!