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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#51
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:50 PM

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Warm Novembers are usually a great sign.

What if it’s warm above but cool at the surface?

#52
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:52 PM

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What if it’s warm above but cool at the surface?


Probably still good. Upper levels matter more in that case.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#53
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:53 PM

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Warm Novembers are usually a great sign.


2002?

6H1Jq8M.png
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#54
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:39 PM

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The weather doldrums have their boring grip firmly on us. We will be lulled into a meteorological coma, and then BAM! The westerlies will arrive with a stormy pattern, AR events, or wind storms, OR we go back into blocking with MAJOR big league arctic air.

 

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes


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#55
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:53 PM

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Hopefully not such an 02-03 style bore fest. The board being active is awesome and I worry a dud will keep the post rate at summer-like stats

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest since 1933-34*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

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#56
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:21 PM

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Wake me up when November starts! LOL!


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#57
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:52 PM

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A week from now.. a warm West and cold East pattern is well established.

 

gfs_T2ma_us_31.png

Our you kidding me!  That won’t verify, it’s 384 hours out!

It will probably end up snowy and miserable cold 


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#58
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:53 PM

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Our you kidding me! That won’t verify, it’s 384 hours out!
It will probably end up snowy and miserable cold

Shawnigan made me look at 384 hours. He seemed excited about it. :)

But that map is actually for one week from today. Much closer range.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#59
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:55 PM

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Shawnigan made me look. He seemed excited about it. :)

And silly me didn’t read the small print of 180 hours out...lol


Layman’s terms please 😁

#60
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:58 PM

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2002-03

#61
Jginmartini

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:02 PM

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Even though we’re in this slow stretch of weather you can’t ignore the beautiful fall sunsets.

East winds blowing in se Portland  and 52* degrees 

 

Attached Files


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#62
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:03 PM

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I'm more interested in mountain snow starting. Probably will be a boring November and December will be very stormy and cold for both the mountains and lowlands.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#63
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:17 PM

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Shawnigan made me look at 384 hours. He seemed excited about it. :)

But that map is actually for one week from today. Much closer range.

590+ dam. Temps should be warming thru the 90s. After this dry stretch...Red flag warnings!
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#64
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:19 PM

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590+ dam. Temps should be warming thru the 90s. After this dry stretch...Red flag warnings!

 

 

Could not manage any real ridging all summer... and now its easy in November!

 

Onto to 2020.    :)


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#65
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:36 PM

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52\35 here in tacoma today. Weather looks incredibly boring next week. We have already gone 10 days without rain here we may go another 10 here in November. That would be longer than any dry streak we had this entire summer.


Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-0.00”(80+)days-2 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 June Rainfall-0.00”

#66
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2019 - 06:38 PM

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Could not manage any real ridging all summer... and now its easy in November!

Onto to 2020. :)

https://youtu.be/PE8jj2t23yI
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#67
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:30 PM

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Here we go!



#68
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:34 PM

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It’s over...

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest since 1933-34*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

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#69
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:38 PM

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Looks like October finished drier than normal for the majority of the Northwest. Bad luck for Tim again, though.

bBEagvZ.png
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#70
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:41 PM

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Looks like October finished drier than normal for the majority of the Northwest. Bad luck for Tim again, though.

bBEagvZ.png

Not bad though... most of it came in about 5 days.

Lots of sun this month. More sunny days in October than in July here this year... which is not climo.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#71
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:49 PM

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El Niño!
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#72
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:52 PM

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Not bad though... most of it came in about 5 days.

Lots of sun this month. More sunny days in October than in July here this year... which is not climo.


Would be crazy if you pulled off more sunny days in November than July, lol. That might not be out of the question if this MJO wave is of the higher frequency variety. Maybe?
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#73
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:54 PM

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Impressive..

deP4RVj.jpg
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Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#74
iFred

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:56 PM

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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.


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#75
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:59 PM

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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.

20-21 should be strongly positive ENSO. Think 86-87. 97-98, 2009-2010
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#76
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:00 PM

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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.


The more you guys talk about 2002/03, the more you’re gonna pull it in from the ethers.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#77
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:02 PM

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On the other hand, my first childhood memory of big snow came from the blizzard in Jan 2000, so I’d love a repeat of that year. It’s foggy but I remember it.
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#78
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:08 PM

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2002-03

#79
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:20 PM

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1980-81

#80
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:25 PM

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This GFS run is looking less hot.

#81
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:27 PM

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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.

At least keep the Banter thread open so we can complain about the epic collapse of the Hawks season and how we are going to end up 6-10.

Oh and I think my bulbs are popping out of the ground and trees are budding!
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#82
Esquimalt

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:29 PM

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This GFS run is looking less hot.


Actually quite decent

#83
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:32 PM

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BIG differences on the 00z GFS Day 4-6 which leads to another cold pattern... hmmm......

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 12 minutes



#84
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:36 PM

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Well that was fun. I'm sure there won't be any ensemble support, but this is why we model ride!



#85
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:42 PM

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52/31 on the day. Currently 38.

#86
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:49 PM

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Looks like October finished drier than normal for the majority of the Northwest. Bad luck for Tim again, though.

bBEagvZ.png

Something looks off with that map as SEA was above normal but is in the drier than normal area. There are a bunch of other stations in the yellow that were above normal rainfall for October so not sure what is going on with that map.

#87
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:50 PM

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Something looks off with that map as SEA was above normal but is in the drier than normal area. There are a bunch of other stations in the yellow that were above normal rainfall for October so not sure what is going on with that map.


I think it's a baseline thing.

Low. Solar.


#88
luminen

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:08 PM

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2002-03

 

1976-77



#89
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:11 PM

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2014-15

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest since 1933-34*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

24


#90
Guest_CulverJosh_*

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:18 PM

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Different world here in Vegas. Normally I would be asleep right now. Instead, I am getting ready to go out..

#91
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:19 PM

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Different world here in Vegas. Normally I would be asleep right now. Instead, I am getting ready to go out..


The night is young! Enjoy it!

#92
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:33 PM

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On the other hand, my first childhood memory of big snow came from the blizzard in Jan 2000, so I’d love a repeat of that year. It’s foggy but I remember it.


Stampede Pass?
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#93
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:38 PM

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1976-77


2002-03

#94
Phil

Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:42 PM

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Stampede Pass?


How’d you guess?
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#95
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:30 PM

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No need for a night shift tonight.

58/27 so not a bad day temp wise again.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest since 1933-34*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

24


#96
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:37 PM

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No need for a night shift tonight.


58/27 so not a bad day temp wise again.

Or is there?

#97
iFred

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:41 PM

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At least keep the Banter thread open so we can complain about the epic collapse of the Hawks season and how we are going to end up 6-10.

Oh and I think my bulbs are popping out of the ground and trees are budding!

 

Have you considered moving to North Bend? I hear the blossoms are great in January.


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#98
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:45 PM

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Euro looking GFSish. Let’s face it models are all over the place right now.

#99
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:16 PM

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Euro looking GFSish. Let’s face it models are all over the place right now.

Yeah, they really are. I also notice the jet east of 170-160 W is quite weak and disorganized.... Some beefier segments of the WPAC jet from the dateline to Japan, but nothing consolidated persisting for very long. I think there's still a slight ~15% chance the next 2-3 days reveals the block holding stronger than is currently modeled.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 11 minutes



#100
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:19 PM

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The 00z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10, 8-14 shows the ridge holding strong and no pattern change. Hmmm!


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