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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#101
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:26 PM

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Attached File  12F68B4F-45D5-4D1A-B81C-95D3BFB3CA1F.png   310.31KB   2 downloads
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#102
iFred

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:26 PM

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Post some of the most useless data.

 

Looks inversiony.

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#103
iFred

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:27 PM

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Portland stuff.

 

For the Portland people.

 

I think there are only a couple of you.

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#104
iFred

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:27 PM

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Some of the EPS members are picking up on some kind of snow. Checking for south of Seattle, doesn't look great.

 

Who am I kidding, this doesn't look great by any means.

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#105
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:48 PM

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Portland stuff.

For the Portland people.

I think there are only a couple of you.


Probably at least 10-12 frequent posters down here.
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#106
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:58 PM

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Hmmm, Past 10 runs of the GFS/NAM centered at Day 2-3 show the blocking trending stronger each run.



#107
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 November 2019 - 12:43 AM

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Anchorage NWS mentioned there is only good agreement through Tuesday, then models diverge on how to handle both the energy in the Gulf of Alaska and ridging over the Eastern Bering Sea. That tells me the offshore block/Western Alaskan ridge may merge more favorably and it's not out of the realm of possibility to see the block/cold pattern reset potentially much further west. Just the same I suppose the energy could be handled differently breaking it down sooner. We won't know that until Monday 00z or Tuesday 12z.


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#108
CulverJosh

Posted 02 November 2019 - 12:51 AM

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Im up 600.00.....so far.
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Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#109
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 November 2019 - 01:09 AM

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Im up 600.00.....so far.

Stay away from the hookers!


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#110
CulverJosh

Posted 02 November 2019 - 02:10 AM

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Stay away from the hookers!


Rob. I am with my wife. Maybe 20 years ago :).
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Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#111
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 November 2019 - 06:09 AM

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Feels like October out there!


Won't feel so much like October tomorrow afternoon with Fall Back.

#112
Jesse

Posted 02 November 2019 - 06:31 AM

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Another frosty morning. 31 degrees.

#113
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 November 2019 - 06:37 AM

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Morning lows have moderated since a few days ago here. 38 here this morning.



#114
El_Nina

Posted 02 November 2019 - 06:59 AM

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I absolutely despise of this pattern in the winter. Looks like a long one too.
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I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#115
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:03 AM

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Just kind of catching up on some of the forecast models this morning,been a busy few days. No real telling of where we may go weather wise starting next weekend. Kind of feels like 13-14 to me. Wet september, dry October and november that year. Just my opinion but i feel like a 13-14 type of winter is on the way. Dry with a couple artic blasts in there. 



#116
High Desert Mat?

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:09 AM

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Just kind of catching up on some of the forecast models this morning,been a busy few days. No real telling of where we may go weather wise starting next weekend. Kind of feels like 13-14 to me. Wet september, dry October and november that year. Just my opinion but i feel like a 13-14 type of winter is on the way. Dry with a couple artic blasts in there.

*arctic

I will say I’d welcome that era repeat of that year for sure. Redmond ties the all time record low of -28 twice. Once in December and once in February. Snow was on the ground more days than not that winter. Bring it on!!!

#117
TT-SEA

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:09 AM

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FIWIW.... here is the 00Z EPS.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-


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#118
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:12 AM

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I assume you are referring to the cold in my home state right?

gfs_T850a_us_65.png


Interestingly... the 18Z GFS does not show colder than normal 850mb temps at all for us the entire run.


Where was this during summer!?

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#119
Jginmartini

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:22 AM

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I’ll take this over foggy and drizzle 

searching desperately for a positive here 


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#120
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:23 AM

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*arctic

Lol sorry i usually use my phone to post here now im using a computer which is really old and s**t.



#121
MossMan

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:41 AM

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35 for a low, currently 36 and partly cloudy.

#122
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:43 AM

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Impressive..

deP4RVj.jpg


Need that negative snow anomaly to continue up in Alaska.
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#123
TT-SEA

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:44 AM

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My son at WSU is home for the weekend and going to the Huskies game with his brother at UW today.    Should be a beautiful day for the game.



#124
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:05 AM

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FIWIW.... here is the 00Z EPS.

5-10 day mean:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-


10-15 day mean:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-


Let's get all the warm anomalies out of the way now.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#125
Jesse

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:10 AM

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I’ll take this over foggy and drizzle
searching desperately for a positive here


It's funny, I was just thinking I would take a foggy, drizzly few days just to shake things up. Day after day of sunshine gets boring.

Gradients go flatter later in the weekend into early next week, so maybe we will luck out and see some foggy days, or at least foggy, drizzly mornings.

#126
Esquimalt

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:10 AM

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Let's get all the warm anomalies out of the way now.


Blocking is still very much present in those eps images it’s just in the wrong place to be favourable to us.
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#127
Jginmartini

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:20 AM

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It's funny, I was just thinking I would take a foggy, drizzly few days just to shake things up. Day after day of sunshine gets boring.

Gradients go flatter later in the weekend into early next week, so maybe we will luck out and see some foggy days, or at least foggy, drizzly mornings.

Back in my younger days loved the foggy/drizzle thing.  Not so much at this age.
Given a prolonged stretch of weather I’ll opt for the sunny weather over the foggy/drizzle thing but I don’t mind some foggy days thrown in here and there.  
 


Layman’s terms please 😁

#128
GHweatherChris

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:21 AM

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My son at WSU is home for the weekend and going to the Huskies game with his brother at UW today. Should be a beautiful day for the game.


A Coug does not willingly go to a Huskies game unless its the Apple Cup, what is wrong with that kid?

#129
TT-SEA

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:27 AM

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A Coug does not willingly go to a Huskies game unless its the Apple Cup, what is wrong with that kid?


He wants to hang out with his brother and see his new life in college. :)

#130
TT-SEA

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:30 AM

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12Z GFS shows enough of a brush with cold air next weekend to re-establish the block without delivering any real cold air to us.

#131
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:35 AM

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Attached File  EDE49AAF-E1C5-414F-9E6C-8C3A7075F164.png   18.34KB   11 downloads
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#132
Jginmartini

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:36 AM

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Paid for a premium weather model membership.

 

Post some of the most useless data.

 

Looks inversiony.

I see Tie fighters 

now I wanna watch Star Wars 

 

edit: Star Wars Attack of the Clones was released in 2002


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#133
TT-SEA

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:38 AM

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Texas and Florida appear to be in prime spots on the 12Z GFS...

20191102-093810.jpg
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#134
Jesse

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:46 AM

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edit: Star Wars Attack of the Clones was released in 2002


:(

#135
Phil

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:46 AM

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It's funny, I was just thinking I would take a foggy, drizzly few days just to shake things up. Day after day of sunshine gets boring.

Gradients go flatter later in the weekend into early next week, so maybe we will luck out and see some foggy days, or at least foggy, drizzly mornings.


Tim’s head just exploded.

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#136
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:47 AM

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Texas and Florida appear to be in prime spots on the 12Z GFS...

20191102-093810.jpg

A 958mb low over Lake Superior. Seems unusual. Buffalo would be buried if that verifies
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#137
Phil

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:49 AM

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The song “2002” by Anne-Marie was playing loudly at the grocery store today.

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#138
Jginmartini

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:23 AM

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A warm anomaly showed up in my brothers yard overnight....bad Omen 

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Layman’s terms please 😁

#139
Jginmartini

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:30 AM

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A 958mb low over Lake Superior. Seems unusual. Buffalo would be buried if that verifies

A little windy as well! Needs to trend a lot....West! 


Layman’s terms please 😁

#140
FroYoBro

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:31 AM

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So far this is the worst winter I have ever experienced. 


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#141
IbrChris

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:33 AM

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g3 18z.png


Gorton’s Fisherman always tells it like it is.
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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#142
Front Ranger

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:48 AM

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That's an insane air mass the GFS has for the middle of the country days 9-10.
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Low. Solar.


#143
Phil

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:53 AM

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That's an insane air mass the GFS has for the middle of the country days 9-10.


And mid-November is the most “zonal” subseasonal period, with a +EAMT and modest jet extension (which might not even reach the PNW, or barely so).

Could be the GFS rushing the progression, but if you want big cold, just wait until the rubber band snaps back with the flip to -EAMT, AAM is removed from the atmosphere, and the East Asian jet retracts. Gonna be a wavebreaking party in late November.

No semi-permanent Baffin vortex in sight right now..the next two weeks are the closest we’ll get to that for awhile, and it’s still very displaced.
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#144
Phil

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:00 AM

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This is, in part, a response to the activation of the MJO (or its emergence over the dominating IOD signal which has been inhibiting its regular emergence out of the IO).

It crosses the Maritime Continent over the next 10 days producing a trade wind burst, then propagates out over the warm pool/dateline, at which point constructive interference with the background state resumes, culminating in what should be two WWBs, the second one being displaced eastward.

The CFS doesn’t represent this very well, but here’s the 850mb projection.

DdonR37.png
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#145
CulverJosh

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:21 AM

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#eastcoastscoresonceagainandthepnwgetsshafteduntilfebruary
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Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#146
Deweydog

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:28 AM

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https://www.kgw.com/...01-4623bb594de9

********😱💦😱💦😱💦😱💦😱💦😱💦😱*********
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#147
Jesse

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:34 AM

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What a dull looking pattern on the models. Probably exactly the sort of thing we want to see after a top tier cold October, though. Some rain would be nice at very least.
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#148
Jesse

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:34 AM

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https://www.kgw.com/...01-4623bb594de9
*****************


There’s that clickbait Mark was mentioning.
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#149
Deweydog

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:38 AM

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Eight inches guys! That’s definitely above average so prepare your backdoors for a big blast!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#150
TT-SEA

Posted 02 November 2019 - 10:51 AM

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Might rain next weekend.

Block looks like its want to stay though.
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