November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

.19” on the day...mostly in the form of heavy drizzle. 48 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Wow...I was just looking at my monthly totals and averages and realized I didn't have a single February average below 40 in the 2000 through 2009 period while 2010 through 2019 had 5.  That includes the last three in a row.  In fact the last 3 Februaries were all in the top 25 coldest for the Puget Sound Lowlands since 1895.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No rain here. Might go the first 15 days of Nov with no rain.  Just crazy.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm at 43.8 for the month to date which is normal for the entire month. Probably -2 or so.

If 43.8 is normal for the month, where does the -2 come from?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow...I was just looking at my monthly totals and averages and realized I didn't have a single February average below 40 in the 2000 through 2009 period while 2010 through 2019 had 5.  That includes the last three in a row.  In fact the last 3 Februaries were all in the top 25 coldest for the Puget Sound Lowlands since 1895.

 

February 2017 was barely below average down here. But SLE had a top 10 cold December in 2016. 

[Jesse]

[GHweatherChris]

[Omegaraptor]

Does anyone remember the specific details of the December 8, 2016 event? Looks like Portland only got about 3" but I seem to remember Washington County doing better with that one. Pretty good early season event, but it was greatly overshadowed by what happened a month later. Maybe my memory is just a bit fuzzy as I wasn't really into weather prior to late 2017.

[GHweatherChris]

Does anyone remember the specific details of the December 8, 2016 event? Looks like Portland only got about 3" but I seem to remember Washington County doing better with that one. Pretty good early season event, but it was greatly overshadowed by what happened a month later. Maybe my memory is just a bit fuzzy as I wasn't really into weather prior to late 2017.

Past events don't matter.

[Omegaraptor]

Past events don't matter.

 

January 1950

[GHweatherChris]

January 1950

Still doesn't matter.

[Jesse]

Still doesn't matter.

You must have done well in history class.

[Kayla]

If 43.8 is normal for the month, where does the -2 come from?

He means his month to date average is currently sitting at the entire month average.

[GHweatherChris]

He means his month to date average is currently sitting at the entire month average.

That part is obvious, what is the -2, thats the question.

[GHweatherChris]

You must have done well in history class.

Straight A's. What is your point? None of my history classes had any weather specific topics.

[Kayla]

That part is obvious, what is the -2, thats the question.

Seems obvious to me. It’s November 9th not November 30th so month to date is running a -2 departure.

[GHweatherChris]

Seems obvious to me. It’s November 9th not November 30th so month to date is running a -2 departure.

So it is an assumption, thats weird, since MTD for him is 0, and if projected to the end of the month as of now, it would end at a 0 departure.

[Timmy Supercell]

So it is a assumption, thats weird, since MTD for him is 0.

 

Nothing on this forum is an assumption. 

[Kayla]

So it is a assumption, thats weird.

It’s how all record keeping is recorded on monthly climate reports so actually quite routine.

[GHweatherChris]

It’s how all record keeping is recorded on monthly climate reports so actually quite routine.

Assuming anything is not routine.

[Kayla]

So it is an assumption, thats weird, since MTD for him is 0, and if projected to the end of the month as of now, it would end at a 0 departure.

That’s a presumption.

[Timmy Supercell]

[GHweatherChris]

That’s a presumption.

I understand what your are saying, doesn't change the fact it is stupid.

 

In my mind if something is normal after 9 days, it has an equal chance of remaining normal, below or above.

[Timmy Supercell]

Since I've started Nov a few degrees above the normal, worst that could happen is it ends average by Cock Day.

[snow_wizard]

If 43.8 is normal for the month, where does the -2 come from?

 

The normal to this point of the month is more like 45.8 so 43.8 to this point is 2 below normal for the month to date.

[Kayla]

I understand what your are saying, doesn't change the fact it is stupid.

 

In my mind if something is normal after 9 days, it has an equal chance of remaining normal, below or above.

Tough to argue stupid!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Does anyone remember the specific details of the December 8, 2016 event? Looks like Portland only got about 3" but I seem to remember Washington County doing better with that one. Pretty good early season event, but it was greatly overshadowed by what happened a month later. Maybe my memory is just a bit fuzzy as I wasn't really into weather prior to late 2017.

 

It was a minor overrunning event. I think snow totals were more in the 1/2"-2" range. Then there was significant icing out toward the gorge and in the West Hills. Down in Salem we had a quick inch of snow and then some ZR. 

 

If I recall correctly it was a warm front overrunning cold air in place from the trough that came through on the 4/5th. That trough gave me about 5" of snow at 1600". 

[snow_wizard]

I understand what your are saying, doesn't change the fact it is stupid.

 

In my mind if something is normal after 9 days, it has an equal chance of remaining normal, below or above.

 

The thing is the normal temps are dropping through the month.

[GHweatherChris]

The normal to this point of the month is more like 45.8 so 43.8 to this point is 2 below normal for the month to date.

Thats not what you said. You said you were at 43.8, not 45.8.

[GHweatherChris]

The thing is the normal temps are dropping through the month.

Which means so far you are running normal for the month, and could continue to do so.

[Timmy Supercell]

Thats not what you said. You said you were at 43.8, not 45.8.

 

He said 43.8 was the current averaged temperature up to date, which would be -2 from the normal in this period.

[Jesse]

Straight A's. What is your point? None of my history classes had any weather specific topics.

I’m assuming the same couldn’t be said for mathematics.

[MossMan]

Good lord.

 

Still drizzling. .20” on the day.

[GHweatherChris]

He said 43.8 was the current averaged temperature up to date, which would be -2 from the normal in this period.

Normal at any point is normal, doesn't mean it will end up negative.

[GHweatherChris]

I’m assuming the same couldn’t be said for mathematics.

Same.

 

Logic is logic.

[GHweatherChris]

Arguing semantics is fun.

[snow_wizard]

Thats not what you said. You said you were at 43.8, not 45.8.

 

I'm at 43.8 so that's why it's 2 degrees below normal for this point of the month.

[Front Ranger]

Surly Chris.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm at 43.8 so that's why it's 2 degrees below normal for this point of the month.

Thank you.

[MossMan]

Things are just getting downright weird on the forum these days.