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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#2551
TacomaWaWx

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:17 AM

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0.08” of rain so far this morning, 0.36” for November now.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-1.90”(80+)days-3 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 July Rainfall-0.01”

#2552
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:18 AM

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Some really impressive lows across the middle of the country. Looks like my old hometown of Bartlesville, OK hit at least 12 this morning. Would be a record for the date. Looking through their data it appears they hit 8 a few days alater in 2014 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2553
Front Ranger

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:23 AM

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Some really impressive lows across the middle of the country. Looks like my old hometown of Bartlesville, OK hit at least 12 this morning. Would be a record for the date. Looking through their data it appears they hit 8 a few days alater in 2014


2014 was an all-timer.

Low. Solar.


#2554
Omegaraptor

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:48 AM

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Nice to see the SEA radar down again for a frontal passage!

Its down for weeks for major upgrades... but still manages to go down every time rain approaches the coast.

 

When a frontal Pacific system is approaching, the radar magically goes down.

 

When a convective system is approaching, the radar still works, but updates about four times per hour.

 

It's like clockwork.


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#2555
Jginmartini

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:50 AM

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I don’t remember rain being so wet  :blink:

.03 and 47*


Layman’s terms please 😁

#2556
Guest_CulverJosh_*

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:50 AM

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Hoping next Mondays frontal passage is the beginning of a cooler/active pattern. Sure looks like it right now.

#2557
Jginmartini

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:53 AM

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Nice to see the SEA radar down again for a frontal passage!

Its down for weeks for major upgrades... but still manages to go down every time rain approaches the coast.

It plugged into a new gfci outlet that now senses moisture approaching 


Layman’s terms please 😁

#2558
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:54 AM

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Bruce was a bit of a wishcaster but probably why we liked him.


Yeah, that's true.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#2559
El_Nina

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:56 AM

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Just started to rain here for the first time
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#2560
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:57 AM

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What about 1/10/17? :P


Yeah that one too.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#2561
TacomaWaWx

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:01 AM

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Hoping next Mondays frontal passage is the beginning of a cooler/active pattern. Sure looks like it right now.

That’s how it should be this time of year. Looks like a decent cool air intrusion with the 534 line all the way down to OR/CA border on the gfs.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-1.90”(80+)days-3 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 July Rainfall-0.01”

#2562
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:06 AM

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FWIW, +0.2 is a weak correlation. It’s not statistically significant. The November-alone correlation is much stronger in most places.

It’s mostly a function of time..IE: a cold November may correlate to a cold winter, but December’s correlation will be much stronger..due to what is (usually) a continuation of the system state producing said cold..the closer you are to DJF, the more likely that background state is to survive/persist before changing.


That makes some sense. I wonder if the correlation is stronger during the warm season.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#2563
MossMan

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:08 AM

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.19” on the day so far. 43 degrees.

#2564
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:16 AM

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Still a goose-egg for precip here since Oct 22.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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#2565
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:19 AM

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I look at those and know we want the pna negative but what about the e others? And also what about the pdo? Don’t we want that to go below 0 as well?

I'm not sure what the latest PDO reading is. The +EPO is not good and favors a faster jet/zonal flow.

00z ECMWF in 13 minutes. It should be really enthralling.


EPO stands for Eastern Pacific Oscillation. Yeah, a +EPO isn't good if you want an Arctic Blast. It's better to have a -EPO unless you want a Pineapple Express and/or Sou'wester. Here's a good illustration of the difference between the two.

bduOTdW.png
aalnVgT.png
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Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#2566
TT-SEA

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:21 AM

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The 12Z GFS is even weaker with the front for Sunday... might end up dry for most of the day even in WA.    And it never makes it to Portland that day.

 

Pretty amazing how that day has gone from a significant rain event to barely anything.    That is what happens when split flow is in charge and the models keep trying to default to climo in the mid and long range.  


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#2567
TT-SEA

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:23 AM

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Side note... Monday is wetter on the 12Z GFS than the 00Z run.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#2568
MossMan

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:23 AM

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I have a few friends in North Carolina...They are posting snow pics like crazy on FB. I’m jealous. That is all.

#2569
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:29 AM

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6z definitely is intriguing IMO. Not very wet which some might not really like but I don’t think it’s going to be a wet winter at this point. Split flow...for now.

Split flow is not a very good sign when looking for meaningful cold, as the cold air source is generally cutoff across northern Canada. It is also often one of the most difficult patterns to break out of. Which is likely why we aren’t seeing the optimism that Jim is looking for.
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#2570
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:30 AM

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Close to 1/2” of rain here last night

#2571
BLI snowman

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:42 AM

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Appears there was some wet, non-sticking snow this morning in Brownsville, TX. Nutty.


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#2572
MossMan

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:49 AM

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Split flow is not a very good sign when looking for meaningful cold, as the cold air source is generally cutoff across northern Canada. It is also often one of the most difficult patterns to break out of. Which is likely why we aren’t seeing the optimism that Jim is looking for.

Yeah I have seen years where split flow dominated almost all season. Bad news. Also I do not like to see snow in Texas, usually means we are screwed for a while.

Also the PNA forecast does not look nearly as promising as it did a few days ago. I’m afraid we might be screwed... for awhile anyway.

However Christmas has officially began on Warm 106.9 that is on in the background at work...
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#2573
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:55 AM

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Split flow is not a very good sign when looking for meaningful cold, as the cold air source is generally cutoff across northern Canada. It is also often one of the most difficult patterns to break out of. Which is likely why we aren’t seeing the optimism that Jim is looking for.

 

Looks like we have our normal January pattern early this year. 

 

People weren't excited about the 06z because it was not exciting. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2574
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 12 November 2019 - 08:55 AM

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Onto 20-21 then!


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24


#2575
Jesse

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:00 AM

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Good lord.

#2576
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:08 AM

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😱
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#2577
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:16 AM

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Now the ECMWF is washing out Sunday's front as well. Side note... Saturday looks totally dry for everyone on this run.

The rain does not even make it down to Portland on Sunday before falling apart. Then there is a quick shot of rain down there on Monday... but its not much.

Split flow is in charge.


That's good news. I prefer rain but it would be nice to have a dry weekend.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#2578
TacomaWaWx

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:20 AM

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Split flow is not a very good sign when looking for meaningful cold, as the cold air source is generally cutoff across northern Canada. It is also often one of the most difficult patterns to break out of. Which is likely why we aren’t seeing the optimism that Jim is looking for.

Just because the models are showing split flow this week doesn’t mean the entire winter is over and it’s not going to snow. Everyone on here sees split flow and just says winter cancel lol.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-1.90”(80+)days-3 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 July Rainfall-0.01”

#2579
Guest_CulverJosh_*

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:21 AM

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Best thing would be to have a stable/neutral EPO. This back and forth crap is no bueno. Ive seen many times over the years...-EPO = Crap ridge

#2580
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:31 AM

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Just because the models are showing split flow this week doesn’t mean the entire winter is over and it’s not going to snow. Everyone on here sees split flow and just says winter cancel lol.

Not what I was saying at all, though. My expectations are fairly high for later in the season

#2581
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:33 AM

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How about all that split flow! 

 

I agree with TacomaWx, maybe we are just getting it out of our system. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2582
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:35 AM

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Actually... around 50 late next week for highs. And a little warmer for the foothills which makes sense with offshore flow. Could be mid to upper 50s out here if this verifies. Side note... it has a 3-4 degree cold bias most of the time.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m-f-max


The 12Z run this morning showed 57 for a high at SEA... it was actually 61.


Yeah, it looks like it still has a cold bias with high temperatures. During the warm season, sometimes it was 5 degrees or more too cold.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#2583
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:37 AM

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CFS is splitty through mid-December. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2584
Guest_CulverJosh_*

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:40 AM

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CFS is splitty through mid-December.


Thats good. Crappiest model out there. Makes the 18z gfs look like Nostradamus.
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#2585
Omegaraptor

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:42 AM

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CFS is splitty through mid-December.

CFSv2 predicted a warm September followed by a warm wet October. ;)

I’d be more concerned if it was showing cold.

#2586
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:02 AM

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Record low was tied at Tulsa this morning with a low of 15. Ties the record from 1911, which I mentioned last week as being our best seasonal match to date...


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2587
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:07 AM

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Record low was tied at Tulsa this morning with a low of 15. Ties the record from 1911, which I mentioned last week as being our best seasonal match to date...

There was a couple feet of snow on the ground here on this date in 1911. 19” fell on the 12th alone.

#2588
Phil

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:12 AM

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Some really impressive lows across the middle of the country. Looks like my old hometown of Bartlesville, OK hit at least 12 this morning. Would be a record for the date. Looking through their data it appears they hit 8 a few days alater in 2014


It’s chilly..finally. Saw our first snowflakes of the season this morning while the smell of woodsmoke filled the air. I’m pretty zen right now. :)
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#2589
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:13 AM

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There was a couple feet of snow on the ground here on this date in 1911. 19” fell on the 12th alone.

 

Amazing. Looks like Salem, OR got 1" on the 10th. Overall the month was a top 10 dry month and ran about a +2F departure. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2590
Jesse

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:13 AM

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It’s chilly outside..finally. Had our first snowflakes of the season this morning while the smell of woodsmoke filled the air. I’m pretty zen right now. :)


I thought snow before December meant you were fooooooooooked.

#2591
Jesse

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:17 AM

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12z ensembles looking pretty decent.

Attached File  27C914CB-7E5E-47C9-8175-519B076B25B1.png   34.99KB   2 downloads
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#2592
Phil

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:19 AM

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Yeah I have seen years where split flow dominated almost all season. Bad news. Also I do not like to see snow in Texas, usually means we are screwed for a while.

Also the PNA forecast does not look nearly as promising as it did a few days ago. I’m afraid we might be screwed... for awhile anyway.

However Christmas has officially began on Warm 106.9 that is on in the background at work...


The PNA is just a calculation based on the 500mb height anomalies across the NPAC/North America that we look at every day. You don’t need it to determine your level of optimism/pessimism..the November 2014 blast happened during a +PNA, as have many others.
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#2593
Jesse

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:20 AM

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I think the main reason the Sunday system “fell apart” was because the trough in its wake has trended faster and colder. Less energy hung up.

Regardless, it is a much better pattern than the Rex block the Euro was putting over us in that same period a few days ago.

#2594
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:21 AM

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12z ensembles looking pretty decent.

attachicon.gif27C914CB-7E5E-47C9-8175-519B076B25B1.png

 

Looks like January 2001. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2595
Phil

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:21 AM

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Getting bearish because of a weak +PNA on the ensemble chart is silly..there are many different patterns than can register as the same exact weak +PNA calculation.
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#2596
Jesse

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:21 AM

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Rain, light east winds and a high of only 46 so far today. Currently 44 with light rain. A nice wintery day.

#2597
Jesse

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:22 AM

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Amazingly, PDX is still running a -0.6 departure mtd.
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#2598
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:24 AM

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Amazingly, PDX is still running a -0.6 departure mtd.

 

-2.0 at SLE and EUG. Not bad son, not bad. 

 

Sounds like we may be due for some warmer weather. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2599
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:25 AM

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The 12Z GFS is even weaker with the front for Sunday... might end up dry for most of the day even in WA. And it never makes it to Portland that day.

Pretty amazing how that day has gone from a significant rain event to barely anything. That is what happens when split flow is in charge and the models keep trying to default to climo in the mid and long range.

Side note... Monday is wetter on the 12Z GFS than the 00Z run.


The best of both worlds. Dry weekend and more wet on Monday.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#2600
Phil

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:26 AM

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How about all that split flow!

I agree with TacomaWx, maybe we are just getting it out of our system.


Did anyone really think the entire five month period from September to January was going to be nonstop western troughing/-EPO? That would be near impossible even during a La Niña/+QBO/-PMM, let alone during a +IOD/+ENSO/+PMM biased system state.

There’s going to be variability. That doesn’t mean winter is over. It hasn’t even begun. :lol:
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