November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

That’s a classic -NAO precursor pattern on the 00z GFS.

 

Massive Scandinavia/N-Siberia Ridge. Sends all the cold into Putin’s backyard initially but long term it would evolve into something nice.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54/45 and still no rain. EUG recorded a T on the 5th which is a joke because there was no precip that day.

[Omegaraptor]

Good news for the ledge jumpers. No correlation between November temps and the subsequent DJF anomaly in the PNW region.

Unless you live in the Yakima area

[Phil]

Oh boy, the EPS and GFS/GEFS both have a very favorable progression for a wave-2 type stratospheric disruption now. Might not culminate in a SSW, but the vortex will take a prolonged beating after Thanksgiving.

 

Enjoy this reprieve while it lasts..blocking is coming back in a big way in 2-3 weeks.

[GHweatherChris]

Hyperbole

[BLI snowman]

Should be a pretty torchy next several days down here. 50ish lows tonight and maybe up to the mid 60s in the days.

[Jesse]

Should be a pretty torchy next several days down here. 50ish lows tonight and maybe up to the mid 60s in the days.

 

Yeah, I was just thinking the same thing perusing the models. Warm pattern continues in the upper levels, but with more clouds and better mixing preventing the chilly nights and occasional cool/foggy days we have seen so far this month.

 

Most stations in the I-5 corridor should be a degree or more above average month to date by the end of the next week. 

[Jesse]

Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern.

 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is really bullish on a major pattern shift during week two now.  I like the looks of where it's going.  Late in the run it shows thicknesses dropping to 528 with continental flavor.

[snow_wizard]

Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern.

 

391CB2CF-58CF-47D3-8F5B-ADDED723CADF.png

 

A lot of decently chilly members there.

[snow_wizard]

Should be a pretty torchy next several days down here. 50ish lows tonight and maybe up to the mid 60s in the days.

 

The surface gradients look very favorable for some places to be cold tomorrow night.  Other than that it looks pretty warmish.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of very nice years showing up in the CPC analogs.  Many of the good ones are 1950s and 60s.

[umadbro]

.31" in Ridgefield is about .30" more than I expected today. Not bad considering...

[Phil]

Hyperbole

Math.

[snow_wizard]

Good news for the ledge jumpers. No correlation between November temps and the subsequent DJF anomaly in the PNW region.

 

 

There is actually a bit of a negative correlation in the PNW from what I have discovered.  The big exception to that is if November is cold after a cold October.

[Deweydog]

Hyperbolmatics.

 

Matherbole?

[MossMan]

Starting to look like 11/20 and MLK Day might be in jeopardy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern.

 

391CB2CF-58CF-47D3-8F5B-ADDED723CADF.png

A bunch of members between -0c to -4c. Mt. Snowpack would be building nicely.

 

12z GFS in 9 hours 16 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Contest for when blocking returns over the NPAC/GoA?

 

00z GEM in 21 hours 50 minutes

[Phil]

There is actually a bit of a negative correlation in the PNW from what I have discovered. The big exception to that is if November is cold after a cold October.

I’m not a big believer in this stuff, but there’s a pretty strong correlation here between cold outbreaks in November and subsequent repeats in January/midwinter, for whatever reason. Probably a statistical fluke like most of these things, since it didn’t show up until the 1970s.

[Phil]

Another really weird one is all moderate/strong niños with warm Novembers here (since at least 1950) have been followed by snowier than average winters. No exceptions.

 

Has to be a fluke but the statistical odds of that being so are like 1/10,000 at this point.

[Phil]

Hyperbolmatics.

 

Matherbole?

AboveTheFrayPerboleMatics

[Phil]

Indo-Pacific subsidence/weak walker cell continues into the long range on most of the modeling following the MJO pass. That might be the background state this winter.

[Deweydog]

AboveTheFrayPerboleMatics

It’s kolder up here.

[GHweatherChris]

Lol

[Omegaraptor]

Indo-Pacific subsidence/weak walker cell continues into the long range on most of the modeling following the MJO pass. That might be the background state this winter.

If it is, what would that mean weather-wise?

[Deweydog]

If it is, what would that mean weather-wise?

You don’t wanna know...

[snow_wizard]

Contest for when blocking returns over the NPAC/GoA?

 

00z GEM in 21 hours 50 minutes

 

I'm guessing late this month.  The ECMWF is showing a classic two steps back (west) / one step forward (east) retrogression.  By day 10 the ridge is well offshore.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm guessing late this month.  The ECMWF is showing a classic two steps back (west) / one step forward (east) retrogression.  By day 10 the ridge is well offshore.

I see hints of that as well. Maybe the EPS will too....

 

6z NAM in 23 minutes

[snow_wizard]

The numbers are already in for October.  Pretty D**n impressive!

 

Washington State = 2nd coldest October on record back to 1895

 

Puget Sound Lowlands = 9th coldest October on record

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS - The jet appears that it is finally starting to look respectable. At least on this run. It starts to strengthen and consolidate over the West Pacific after Day 8 now. Long Range is really wet with more active weather systems. I tend to think this is likely and it follows Climo coinciding with the MJO progression. If so, we may see some models showing much wetter solutions and possibly see some deep lows spinning up offshore. 'Tis the Season! C'MON!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Ensembles - Wetter, cooler

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the jet stream is about to get active, going to be a normal November after all. Hopefully this ends up bringing some decent systems into our region.

[TacomaWaWx]

50 and foggy currently. No rain since midnight, 0.27” of rain yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some encouraging model trends. Cloudy and 44 here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Visibility is less than 100 yards here at the moment.

[MossMan]

.02” so far today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs shows some light rain mid-week, but fairly wet next weekend into early next week. Looks a lot more typical of November.

[Kayla]

I will say, looking at the latest guidance they all show the NPAC blocking quickly building back in by day 9, just as Phil called it.

 

Just hope this blocking episode is more favorable for the west than the last one.

[Blizzard777]

Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern.

 

391CB2CF-58CF-47D3-8F5B-ADDED723CADF.png

November has a heartbeat , Amen!