November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

Salamander conditions

51* 

Should be a fun game today if your into soccer.  Personally haven’t paid a lot of attention this year to the Sounders but I do enjoy the game...playing that is. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Models much better indeed.

[TT-SEA]

EPS still not showing any cold air at all.    It is starting to show more precip finally... but still drier than normal overall.

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

 

15-day precip anomaly:

 

[TT-SEA]

I just ran the loop at 250mb on the 12Z GFS... looks like a wavy, broken jet stream at best and generally looks like split flow to me.    

 

Here is day 10...

 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, definitely still a pretty weak and discombobulated jet for this time of year.

[Jesse]

Has been misting or drizzling for just about the last 20 hours here. Pretty nice. Have picked up over 1/3” of precip now. This event definitely overachieved.

 

49 currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes recent GFS runs have been very splitty. For the past week at least. I have mentioned in numerous times, but people have generally ignored my prophesies and elected to bury their heads in the sand. 

[Jesse]

Yes recent GFS runs have been very splitty. For the past week at least. I have mentioned in numerous times, but people have generally ignored my prophesies and elected to bury their heads in the sand.

All I’ve really seen people say is that the runs have trended better the last day or so. You have said that.

[Jesse]

Hopefully we can avoid getting too much sun today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hopefully we can avoid getting too much sun today.

That depends on who you ask.

[TacomaWaWx]

Dense fog and 50 degrees, temp hasn’t changed since 4pm yesterday.

[Jesse]

That depends on who you ask.

I didn’t ask anyone.

[MossMan]

Very November like leaving my driveway to make my every other Sunday trip to Costco for gas. Ran up to the lake house...Very November like here as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't have many expectations for November, but this is pretty awful.  

[BLI snowman]

November.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All I’ve really seen people say is that the runs have trended better the last day or so. You have said that.

 

The ensembles. The operational run has been a split flow hell for the most part. Sometimes there are lots of systems, but they all split and wash out. 

[Jesse]

The ensembles. The operational run has been a split flow hell for the most part. Sometimes there are lots of systems, but they all split and wash out. 

 

Better than the mostly bone dry operational runs that had people talking about a totally dry November or whatever just a few days ago. There has been improvement.

 

Will see ware it goes but all I know right now is I'm depressed!

[Jesse]

[BLI snowman]

Has been misting or drizzling for just about the last 20 hours here. Pretty nice. Have picked up over 1/3” of precip now. This event definitely overachieved.

 

49 currently.

 

We were in a good spot where the front decided to stall. Up to 0.40" here as well, looks like nothing fell as far north as Aurora.

[TT-SEA]

That ensemble chart just shows generally warmer than normal with a few systems coming through.   The system next Sunday looks like the only robust rain event.  Obviously when looking at many individual members... you will see rain spikes at different times but that does not mean all of them will happen.   And in split flow... it will look like rain all the time the farther out you go but that will not be how it plays out in reality.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We were in a good spot where the front decided to stall. Up to 0.40" here as well, looks like nothing fell as far north as Aurora.

 

Yep, partly sunny here. 

[Perturbed Member]

~0.25 in from the front yesterday. I quite enjoyed clouds/gloom/rain/drizzle all day yesterday, a much needed break from the boring ridging. Hopefully some real November weather is just around the corner. 

[Omegaraptor]

546A87E8-F1DE-406C-9189-0B32F967E714.png

I like that blue one that goes up past 40mm.

[Front Ranger]

So it may NOT be a record dry November???

[Jesse]

So it may NOT be a record dry November???

It’s November 10th.

[TT-SEA]

So it may NOT be a record dry November???

 

 

Very unlikely.

 

Probably drier than normal though... and maybe very little snow in the mountains this month.    

 

Even 2002 had a stretch in November when it rained on most days for 2 weeks before drying out again in the last part of the month.    

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

Yeah, definitely still a pretty weak and discombobulated jet for this time of year.

This. And it will continue to be, generally, regardless of what the clown range models depict at this time. This jet extension seems to peak Nov 15-20 then is primed for a quick retraction.

 

The GFS suite in particular is probably over bullish with the jet/precip in the long range, though. One of its biases when forcing is entering the WPAC.

[Jesse]

This. And it will continue to be, generally, regardless of what the clown range models depict at this time.

 

The GFS suite in particular is probably over bullish on the jet/precip.

Crazy, I figured all of the ensemble members were all going to verify at once.

[High Desert Mat?]

2nd year Niño = split flow.

[Jesse]

At least that Rex Block pattern disappeared.

[Phil]

Hopefully we can avoid getting too much sun today.

Vampire! Dracula! You’re not a normal person Jesse. Seek help ASAP.

[TT-SEA]

Vampire! Dracula! You’re not a normal person Jesse. Seek help ASAP.

Says the person who thinks he has S.A.D. and who said before his summer trip that he did not want to see all day low clouds because that would be "depressing".

[Phil]

The ensembles. The operational run has been a split flow hell for the most part. Sometimes there are lots of systems, but they all split and wash out.

Your adoration of zonal flow never ceases to amaze me.

 

This might be your least favorite winter of all time even if there’s a mammoth Arctic blast in January with cold powder to sea level, lol.

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

Yearly rainfall in Tacoma so far this year is 21.83”, Yearly snowfall is at 23.5”. Hopefully we can get some more snow before the end of the calendar year so we can finish the year with more snowfall than rainfall. Can’t imagine we will go through November and December without 4” of rain at least probably more.

[Jesse]

Your adoration of zonal flow never ceases to amaze me.

 

This might be your least favorite winter of all time.

Zonal flow can be fun if you are looking for active weather and storms. This forum doesn’t need to just be a snow and cold cult all the time.

 

But I know, Tim, who the hell would want rain and storms in the dead of winter.

[TacomaWaWx]

Also, driest year I’ve recorded is 27.77” back in 2013, need 6” of rain to avoid becoming the driest year.

[Phil]

Says the person who thinks he has S.A.D. and who said before his summer trip that he did not want to see all day low clouds because that would be "depressing".

That’s more due to the long nights.

 

I love those cold, cloudy days with the smell of woodsmoke in the air. It’s so winter. Brings back memories of my childhood before snowstorms when everyone was running their fireplace, so I ended up associated that smell with snow.

 

Sunshine every day is just as bad as clouds every day.

[TT-SEA]

Personally... I think a strong jet is often better than meandering systems in the dead of winter.      Not that that what we prefer matters.