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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#3851
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:52 AM

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I thought the 12z GFS was great. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3852
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:54 AM

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The GEM really is not any colder than the GFS at day 10. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3853
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:55 AM

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If the 12z GFS/GEM were to verify we could see even lower elevation ski areas opening by the beginning of December. 


  • TigerWoodsLibido likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3854
seattleweatherguy

Posted Today, 09:57 AM

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Canadian is onboard for next week...

 

500h_anom.na.png

 

516 looks cold



#3855
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:08 AM

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Tomorrow is the 8 year anniversary of the only significant snow I have received here in November. We picked up 6.5" on 11/18-18/2011. 


  • TigerWoodsLibido likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3856
jakeinthevalley

Posted Today, 10:11 AM

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Tomorrow is the 8 year anniversary of the only significant snow I have received here in November. We picked up 6.5" on 11/18-18/2011. 

I just heard there was a brush fire a couple days ago up there. How close was it to your place?



#3857
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:21 AM

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I just heard there was a brush fire a couple days ago up there. How close was it to your place?

 

It was a mile or two away. I was down in Eugene for the Ducks game, so I wasn't around when it happened, but was not worried when I heard about it. Even though it has been dry things are still pretty damp this time of year. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3858
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:24 AM

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Monthly Departures through 11/17

 

PDX: +0.8

EUG: +0.2

SLE: -0.3


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3859
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 10:25 AM

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Hopefully some freezing temps again here in Dec.  16 freezes to this point is quite respectable for EUG tho.  Last one was one 11/8 with a low of 28F.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3860
Jesse

Posted Today, 10:27 AM

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Hopefully some freezing temps again here in Dec. 16 freezes to this point is quite respectable for EUG tho. Last one was one 11/8 with a low of 28F.


Eugene will see a handful of freezing low temps starting later this week.

#3861
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 10:33 AM

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Got down to 43F last night. Another positive departure for the day incoming. Probly a positive departure for the month but if the late month cool period verifies, it should be close to normal.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3862
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 10:34 AM

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Eugene will see a handful of freezing low temps starting later this week.

 

GFS says no but their temps often seem wrong.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3863
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:39 AM

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Hopefully some freezing temps again here in Dec.  16 freezes to this point is quite respectable for EUG tho.  Last one was one 11/8 with a low of 28F.

 

To put that in perspective PDX had 14 freezes for the calendar year 2010. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3864
Jesse

Posted Today, 10:39 AM

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GFS says no but their temps often seem wrong.


:(

#3865
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 10:40 AM

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To put that in perspective PDX had 14 freezes for the calendar year 2011. 

 

Wasn't there a cold season where PDX didn't even get to 32F?


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3866
Omegaraptor

Posted Today, 10:40 AM

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Wasn't there a cold season where PDX didn't even get to 32F?


33-34 and that was downtown when PDX didn’t exist yet
No rain here until Hour 258.

#3867
hawkstwelve

Posted Today, 10:40 AM

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Not bad to start off December. Ridge around 150W, trough in the West, and a hint of a SE ridge.

 

Strong signal that it starts to shift east a hair after this frame but then restructures back around 150W.

 

Also continues the promote the theme of more northern-based blocking this winter, as Jim has alluded to.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png


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#3868
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:46 AM

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Salem had 119 freezes in 1985. I haven't checked, but I assume that is their record. 

Jan: 28

Feb: 17

Mar: 20

Apr: 2

May: 3

Oct: 4

Nov: 19

Dec: 26 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3869
Jesse

Posted Today, 10:46 AM

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To put that in perspective PDX had 14 freezes for the calendar year 2011.


Impressive stat considering that ended up being their coldest year since 1985

#3870
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:47 AM

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What the GFS is showing is pretty good for late November. 


  • TigerWoodsLibido likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3871
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:48 AM

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Impressive stat considering that ended up being their coldest year since 1985

 

I made a horrible mistake. I meant 2010. I have fixed my original post. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3872
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 10:50 AM

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What the GFS is showing is pretty good for late November. 

 

You're finally gonna see some action! Maybe a snowy Civil War at your place? Though I'm assuming you'll be at Autzen?


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3873
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 10:52 AM

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Snowstorm is gone on the 12Z ECMWF.  

 

Just a typical November front sliding quickly through on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.    The big block stretching up into Alaska that the 00Z run showed for next week is not there on this run.  



#3874
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 10:55 AM

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00Z run:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total-snow-10to1-

 

 

12Z run:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total-snow-10to1-



#3875
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 10:58 AM

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Although many places in the northern U.S. might have a white Thanksgiving this year... even Jared.  :)

 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-total-snow-10t



#3876
K%%

Posted Today, 10:58 AM

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Snowstorm is gone on the 12Z ECMWF.

Just a typical November front sliding quickly through on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The big block stretching up into Alaska that the 00Z run showed for next week is not there on this run.


Doesn’t look like a bad run by any means though.

"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#3877
jakerepp

Posted Today, 10:59 AM

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00Z run:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total-snow-10to1-

 

 

12Z run:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total-snow-10to1-

 

Looks like I'm checking back in here at the right time. Model madness is commencing!



#3878
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 10:59 AM

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Tsk tsk tsk

 

Not that I was expecting a snowstorm for y'all up north but it's a bummer seeing the EC take it away as quick as it showed it.  Lots of potential in Dec it seems.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 46 (Nov 6)
Coldest low: 23 (Oct 31)
Days with below freezing temps: 16
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3879
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 11:00 AM

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Doesn’t look like a bad run by any means though.

 

 

That is subjective of course.    

 

But the 12Z ECMWF is much more in line with the 00Z EPS.    



#3880
jakeinthevalley

Posted Today, 11:11 AM

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It was a mile or two away. I was down in Eugene for the Ducks game, so I wasn't around when it happened, but was not worried when I heard about it. Even though it has been dry things are still pretty damp this time of year. 

Still no fun to be two hours away from home with any fire that close.

 

Fog has lifted in McMinnville and the rain is knocking on the doorstep. Hopefully the wind this afternoon will be enough to clear the last leaves from the cottonwoods at home. Would love to have the yard all cleared this weekend.



#3881
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted Today, 11:12 AM

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I was in Bend last year for Thanksgiving and there was snow.

I also missed the 1” of snow or whatever Portland got on Christmas Eve 2017 because I was in Bend and experienced a superior White Christmas.


Nice, at least you got to experience some snow on those holidays.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#3882
BhamMe

Posted Today, 11:13 AM

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The Weather Network updated their forecast for winter via video this morning. Calling for cold across most of the Canadian prairies "polar vortex" with the best chance for west coast snow (aka BC) in February. Very similar to last years patter I guess.   



#3883
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted Today, 11:38 AM

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Some give and take to this
White stuff In place of side dishes relatives were supposed to bring but have canceled due to the snow :(
one of those side dishes....Yams with marshmallows, OH MY!


I actually have never had that dish but it looks yummy! Anything with marshmallows is delicious.

candied-yams-with-marshmallows-h1-5b672b

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#3884
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 11:39 AM

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You're finally gonna see some action! Maybe a snowy Civil War at your place? Though I'm assuming you'll be at Autzen?

 

Not sure if we are going to that game or not yet. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3885
MossMan

Posted Today, 11:49 AM

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So no White Turkeys now?