November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

 

 

Screenshot_2019-11-14 Welcome to Ask 8-Ball, The Ultimate Online Oracle(1).png

 

 

00z GFS Day 5

 

 

 

 

I do visit the cities less and less these days!

[Gradient Keeper]

I do visit the cities less and less these days!

That's okay, I'm not really a 'DJ' ..... Shhh........ Yeah......

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 6 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I still have at least a couple weeks to finish my outdoor projects. 

[umadbro]

Was moving to Washington from Oregon a headache?

Nope. Moving out of Oregon was a relief. That state and the city of Portland is a pile. I still work in Oregon, but as soon as I cross the bridge every evening, I feel better, breath better and traffic literally disappears.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like I still have at least a couple weeks to finish my outdoor projects.

yea but probably only 3 weeks at the most.

[GHweatherChris]

Please pray for me, make my cripple go away...

[Gradient Keeper]

WPAC jet retracting and weakening after Day 8-9.... That's interesting IF the EURO shows it.

[ShawniganLake]

WPAC jet retracting and weakening after Day 8-9.... That's interesting IF the EURO shows it.

Looks a little more promising for sure

[Anti Marine Layer]

[GHweatherChris]

I’d rather be a cripple like GhChris than buy/use a snowblower.

Trying too hard looks really bad on you.

[Jesse]

None that I have noticed. It has been chilly though. 37 on Tuesday and 40 yesterday. Got up to 46 today I believe. I've been mainly in the Airway Heights/Medical Lake area so maybe there is still some left in the high elevations of the area.

I love the semi-arid plateau west of Spokane. Sagebrush country dotted with pine trees, aspen groves and kettle lakes.

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto the Ensembles and not very important EURO because we're still more than 8 days from anything changing, IF anything changes. Wow that sure sucks.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Eugene still waiting for the wet stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 7

 

[Cloud]

00z GEM Day 7

 

Just bring on December already. This month blows.

[TacomaWaWx]

Had a couple light sprinkles on the drive and at home but no measurable rainfall yet. 53/46 today, 52/47 yesterday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice retrogression on GEFS

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just need a SE ridge now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice improvement on ensembles, especially shows up looking at Yakima with a good signal for backdoor cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe a late November 2014 redux. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[Omegaraptor]

Maybe a late November 2014 redux. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Maybe a late November 2014 redux.

 

lol probably the worst analog of all time. Some of us still have nightmares about 14-15.

[Jesse]

Maybe a late November 2004 redux. 

 

Fixed.

[Anti Marine Layer]

00z GFS Ensembles

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

What does low pressure look like?

[Gradient Keeper]

... And just like that, the EURO run might actually show something worthwhile.

 

00z ECMWF in 8 minutes

6z GFS in 3 hours 51 minutes

12z GEFS in 11 hours 23 minutes

00z EPS(Tomorrow) in 26 hours 53 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ummm late November 2014 was actually pretty chilly. I had a little snow and I think Tim and Mossman had a couple inches 

[Gradient Keeper]

What does low pressure look like?

For which day? Do you mean the low off the OR/WA Coast on Monday-Tuesday?

[Jesse]

For which day? Do you mean the low off the OR/WA Coast on Monday-Tuesday?

 

I think it's a literal question since its been so many months since he's seen a low pressure system.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think it's a literal question since its been so many months since he's seen a low pressure system.

This is true..... The low is not too bad when it's around 128 W, but then it weakens as it nears the coast.

[MossMan]

Ummm late November 2014 was actually pretty chilly. I had a little snow and I think Tim and Mossman had a couple inches

 

It was a nice little event, I forgot just how cold it got.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was a nice little event, I forgot just how cold it got.

 

Yeah that was not a troll or #wintercancel post. Yes, 2014-15 sucked, but that short stretch was one of the cooler stretches of the winter. I wasn't trying to make a comparison between winters, just saying maybe we get chilly like that. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah that was not a troll or #wintercancel post. Yes, 2014-15 sucked, but that short stretch was one of the cooler stretches of the winter. I wasn't trying to make a comparison between winters, just saying maybe we get chilly like that. 

It was also chilly the middle of the month too. 38/31 dewpoints single digits

[Anti Marine Layer]

For which day? Do you mean the low off the OR/WA Coast on Monday-Tuesday?

For any day. What feature in those graphs would indicate that rain is likely at a given point in time?

[Gradient Keeper]

For any day. What feature in those graphs would indicate that rain is likely at a given point in time?

For PDX light rain overnight tonight into Friday AM. Spotty light rain Sunday. Light-Moderate rain at times Monday. Showers Tuesday. Then nothing until Day 12-13.

 

12z NAM in 7 hours 47 minutes

[TacomaWaWx]

Ummm late November 2014 was actually pretty chilly. I had a little snow and I think Tim and Mossman had a couple inches

we got a little in 2014 as well only like a half inch. Was a pretty decent shot of cold air. Rest of the winter sucked. I understand you weren’t trying to say we’ve got a 14-15 like winter coming up. November 2014 redux would be welcome by me.

[Cloud]

Still 53* at 10pm. Temp hasn’t changed much since sunset.

[Deweydog]

Euro!!!

[MossMan]

Currently 50 and cloudy. Had a sprinkle about an hour ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5