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Winter 2019-2020 forecast contest.

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#1
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:29 PM

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Make your guesses be known so that the best forecaster can have bragging rights come spring.
Mean monthly temperature departures November thru March and total snowfall for each station.

KBLI

KSEA

KPDX

KIAD

Due by roughly 11:59:59pm on November 5th
You guys want to add other stations?
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#2
Phil

Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:37 PM

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Make your guesses be known so that the best forecaster can have bragging rights come spring.
Mean temperature departures November thru March and total snowfall for each station.

KBLI

KSEA

KPDX

Due by roughly 11:59:59pm on November 5th
You guys want to add other stations?


I’m in. But maybe add Dulles (IAD)? Otherwise I have no chance. I’m way outmatched here, haha.

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#3
BLI snowman

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:42 PM

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BLI: +1.8, 6.2"

SEA: +2.5, 3.8"

PDX: +1.0, 5.5"

 

IAD: -1.2, 23.6"

 

Unofficial guesses but I suspect OLM will see 93" of the white stuff and finally break the Rogers Pass, MT record of -70 to set a new low temp mark for the lower 48.

 

Hillsboro will see no precipitation or temperatures of any kind for the entire winter. Montague, CA will have a billion year flood, rivaled only by the disastrous floods awaiting the Rattlesnake Ridge area.

 

Kayla's house will become an actual iceberg and break off into the Atlantic in the spring, sinking the Titanic.


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#4
Front Ranger

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:44 PM

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Make your guesses be known so that the best forecaster can have bragging rights come spring.
Mean temperature departures November thru March and total snowfall for each station.

KBLI

KSEA

KPDX

KIAD

Due by roughly 11:59:59pm on November 5th
You guys want to add other stations?


Month by month would be closer to previous seasonal forecast contests...5 months is a long mean.

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#5
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:45 PM

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Month by month would be closer to previous seasonal forecast contests...5 months is a long mean.

I agree. Poorly worded on my part.

#6
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:26 PM

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KBLI.
Nov. +2.5
Dec. -1.5
Jan. -5
Feb. -0.5
Mar. +2

Snowfall 16”

KSEA
Nov. +3
Dec. 0
Jan. -4
Feb. 0
Mar. +2

Snowfall 10”

KPDX
Nov. +2.5
Dec. -0.5
Jan. -5
Feb. 0
Mar. +2

Snowfall 9”

KIAD
Nov. -2
Dec. +1
Jan. +4
Feb. -1
Mar. -1

Snowfall 18”

My location. 35” of snow.

#7
Phil

Posted 03 November 2019 - 08:55 AM

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Subject to revision

BLI:
Nov: +3.5
Dec: +1.5
Jan: -1.5
Feb: +0.5
Mar: -1

Snow: 6.5”

SEA:
Nov: +3
Dec: +2
Jan: -1
Feb: +1.5
Mar: -0.5

Snow: 5”

PDX:
Nov: +2
Dec: +2
Jan: -2
Feb: +1
Mar: 0.0

Snow: 16.5”

IAD:
Nov: -2
Dec: +1
Jan: -3
Feb: +3
Mar: -2

Snow: 20”

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#8
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 November 2019 - 09:00 AM

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Subject to revision”

16.5” at Pdx but only 5” in Seattle. Do you hate Puget Sound

#9
Phil

Posted 03 November 2019 - 09:10 AM

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16.5” at Pdx but only 5” in Seattle. Do you hate Puget Sound


Haha. I’m feeling a southern slider this year.
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#10
GHweatherChris

Posted 03 November 2019 - 10:53 AM

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KBLI.
Nov. +1.2
Dec. -1.6
Jan. -1.9
Feb. -.4
Mar. +3

Snowfall 6”

KSEA
Nov. +2
Dec. -1
Jan. -3
Feb. -1
Mar. +4

Snowfall 12"

KPDX
Nov. +3
Dec. -1.3
Jan. -3
Feb. -.8
Mar. +4

Snowfall 5”

KIAD
Nov. 0
Dec. -1.6
Jan. +1
Feb. -.6
Mar. 0

Snowfall 20”

#11
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:48 PM

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Haha. I’m feeling a southern slider this year.


Hopefully not too south or else only Tiger and Timmy get the goods! 😂
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#12
snow_wizard

Posted 04 November 2019 - 06:42 PM

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I'm betting on one really cold month this winter and Dec - Feb average probably somewhere in the -2 to -3 F range.  Coldest winter of the century so far is on the table.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 

Coldest Low = 28

Lows 32 or below = 14

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#13
Front Ranger

Posted 04 November 2019 - 06:55 PM

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KBLI.
Nov. +1
Dec. -4
Jan. -3
Feb. +2
Mar. +1

Snowfall 20” (except they don't measure snow anymore)

KSEA
Nov. +2
Dec. -2
Jan. -2
Feb. +3
Mar. +2

Snowfall 8”

KPDX
Nov. +1
Dec. -3
Jan. -2
Feb. +3
Mar. +1

Snowfall 12”

KIAD
Nov. -2
Dec. 0
Jan. -3
Feb. -5
Mar. -1

Snowfall 34"


It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#14
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 05 November 2019 - 04:40 PM

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KBLI
Nov: +1.5
Dec: -1.0
Jan: -4.0
Feb: +1.0
Mar: +1.5

Snowfall 11”


KSEA
Nov: +2.0
Dec: -0.5
Jan: -3.5
Feb: +1.5
Mar: +2.0

Snowfall 13”


KPDX
Nov: +1.5
Dec: -1.0
Jan: -5.5
Feb: +1.5
Mar: +2.5

Snowfall 17”


KIAD
Nov: -3.0
Dec: +1.0
Jan: +4.5
Feb: -1.0
Mar: -1.5

Snowfall 12”

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#15
CulverJosh

Posted 05 November 2019 - 05:05 PM

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Bellingham

Nov: +2.5
Dec: -3.5
Jan: +4.0
Feb: -4.5
March: -1.5

Total snowfall: 23 inches...one 12-16 incher

Seattle

Nov: +2.0
Dec: -3.0
Jan: +3.0
Feb: -2.0
March: -0.5

Total snowfall: 19 inches...one 12 incher

Pdx

Nov: +4.0
Dec: -4.5...lots of east wind
Jan: +0.5...east wind but no cold pool
Feb: -3.5..raging east wind
Mar: -1.0..zonal flow

Total snow: 16 inches..more if the cold pool is strong in December.

Dont care about Dulles

Redmond

Nov: +/- 0.0
Dec: -5.5...cold pool...big snowstorm
Jan: +1.0
Feb: -4.0...best chance for heavy snow
Mar: -1.0..one good snow (8-10")

Total snow: 32 inches...higher if the basin is loaded frequently.

My main thoughts are. Lots of blocking and lots of dry to wet periods. Dont think any pattern will hold more than 7-10 days. Some undercutting of pacific storms with last minute model details determining where landfall takes place. As with most years the details will not become clear until 8-12 hours before.

#16
Deweydog

Posted 05 November 2019 - 05:07 PM

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PDX:

Nov: -1.69
Dec: +.50
Jan: +.15
Feb: +.69
Mar: +2.69

2”

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#17
Front Ranger

Posted 05 November 2019 - 06:28 PM

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PDX:

Nov: -1.69
Dec: +.50
Jan: +.15
Feb: +.69
Mar: Who cares?

 

Hey, big surprise...Dewey is above silly forecast contests.  :rolleyes:


It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#18
Phil

Posted 05 November 2019 - 07:43 PM

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Final numbers. Feb/Mar are a huge challenge for me still.

BLI:
Nov: +3
Dec: +1
Jan: -2
Feb: +1
Mar: +1

Snow: 6”

SEA:
Nov: +3
Dec: +1
Jan: -1
Feb: +1
Mar: +1

Snow: 5”

PDX:
Nov: +2
Dec: +2
Jan: -2
Feb: +1
Mar: +1

Snow: 12”

IAD:
Nov: -1
Dec: -1
Jan: -2
Feb: +2
Mar: -1

Snow: 20”

Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
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#19
Deweydog

Posted 05 November 2019 - 08:22 PM

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Hey, big surprise...Dewey is above silly forecast contests. :rolleyes:


Oh, alright... don’t have a cow.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#20
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:33 PM

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BLI

 

Nov: +2
Dec: +1.5
Jan: -2.0
Feb: +1.0

Mar: -1.0
Snow: 12"

Seattle

Nov: +2.5
Dec: +2.0
Jan: -1.5
Feb: +0.5
Mar: -1.5

Snow: 4"

PDX

 

Nov: +1.2
Dec: +1.6
Jan: -1.5
Fen: +1.5
Mar: -0.5

Snow: 1.5"

 

IAD: 17" of snow

 

"My Location" 15" of snow 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#21
Jesse

Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:43 PM

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BLI

 

Nov: +1

Dec: 0.0

Jan: -1

Feb: +1

Mar: 0.0

 

Snow: 8"

 

PDX:

 

Nov: +1

Dec: -0.5

Jan: -1

Feb: +1

Mar: 0.0

 

Snow: 4"

 

SEA:

 

Nov: +1.5

Dec: +0.5

Jan: -0.5

Feb: +2

Mar: +1

 

Snow: 2"

 

IAD

 

Nov: -2

Dec: -2

Jan: +2

Feb: -2

Mar: +2

 

Snow: 1 Phil'


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#22
Front Ranger

Posted 08 November 2019 - 05:32 AM

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Almost 6' of snow at IAD?!

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#23
Jesse

Posted 08 November 2019 - 08:10 AM

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That’s a Phil of a lot of snow. 😏

#24
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 08 November 2019 - 09:24 AM

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Most people are going with January as the coldest month in the PNW.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#25
ShawniganLake

Posted 08 November 2019 - 10:18 AM

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Most people are going with January as the coldest month in the PNW.

except domebuster went with the standard January torch.
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#26
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 08 November 2019 - 11:04 AM

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except domebuster went with the standard January torch.


#climatology

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#27
Phil

Posted 08 November 2019 - 11:10 AM

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I could envision a scenario where March flips stupid cold in the West this year with an early FW/late SSW and major MJO periodicity change.

Not that it’s likely, but I think there’s a pathway for it.

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