Veteran's Day System

[Niko]

Light snow and 27 degrees.

Keep me informed of your accumulations.

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks Tom! Yeah I agree. Doesn't appear to be much for pullbacks in this first cycle at least. Its definitely reminding me of '13-'14!

Congrats James. Happy birthday. What an unforgettable way to bring in a new year of life. A blue norther and a white ground are pretty great presents from old man winter.

[St Paul Storm]

A few flurries this morning but skies have cleared. 12F with a wind chill of 0F. Lake effect snow off of some of the bigger lakes in MN today. Impressive any time you can generate snow from a lake in the middle of the state.

[jaster220]

So the NWS in basically 60 hours goes from a "non event" (per several discussions)  to now  schools closing here in the  DSM area. The guidance was there 60 hours ago- the Bias from DMX bit them hard core. 3-4" in MBY. Small flakes - but accumulates well and also well melt fast. Guessing 15:1 to 17:1 rations/  

 

 

Same bias bug that GRR has obviously, as in their overnight AFD they even made the silliest statement that the Euro had this from the 6th! (5 days out) but they "JUST NOW" have confidence in this event working out. I'm not a trained Met, but my hunch is that there is much much more dynamics and thus skill required to forecasting snow amts with a developing storm like we have going on today vs just a cold air mass coming over a warm lake to generate LES. I don't think my office is quite up to the task with real storms. Thus they are always late to the game and in catch-up mode wrt headlines, amts, etc. 

[hlcater]

~2.5" in Iowa City. Was hoping for more, but getting left out of the heavy band for 5 hours doomed us. Oh well.

[Minny_Weather]

Been getting off-and-on light sleet for the past hour or so. Good returns are still absolutely refusing to cross the state line and are actually receding. It's nice to see heavier returns out in Indiana to my West but I'm worried that may be Lake Michigan lake enhancement that'll weaken as it gets here. 32.4*F.

[OKwx2k4]

62*! But taking the fast lane down to 24* and up to 50 mph wind gusts!

 

This is what we call a Blue Norther and it's only about 2 months early. I mean, Wha?

Only a 30% chance of rain.

 

Button up!

That's a pretty sharp temp contrast.

 

My leaves up here are being shredded off today regardless of whether they're ready or not. Will look like early winter by next monday here I think. That's only with winds in the mid-30s. 50mph plus is pretty harsh.

 

Biggest November front like this in a long time.

[Hawkeye]

My snow total is a nice 4.5".  My liquid total from the gauge is 0.37".  The model average nailed the qpf.

 

My season total snowfall is now 11.1".

[jaster220]

Classic presentation..

 

[Andie]

That's a pretty sharp temp contrast.

My leaves up here are being shredded off today regardless of whether they're ready or not. Will look like early winter by next monday here I think. That's only with winds in the mid-30s. 50mph plus is pretty harsh.

Biggest November front like this in a long time.

I'm expecting the leaves to get shredded off from the wind. I've been enjoying the color but fear much will be gone in the morning.

A 40* drop is seen here. It isn't uncommon but not this early to my memory.

 

I'm wondering if this is a preview of Texas and Oklahoma's winter?

Look chilly up there.

[Niko]

Attm, moderate snow. Temp at 29F. Went outside and did an eye test on my snowfall amts. Still early, but I will say that it is starting to stack.

[Niko]

My snow total is a nice 4.5".  My liquid total from the gauge is 0.37".  The model average nailed the qpf.

 

My season total snowfall is now 10.6".

Wow...impressive!

[Niko]

Been getting off-and-on light sleet for the past hour or so. Good returns are still absolutely refusing to cross the state line and are actually receding. It's nice to see heavier returns out in Indiana to my West but I'm worried that may be Lake Michigan lake enhancement that'll weaken as it gets here. 32.4*F.

Your radar should begin to fill in as the day wears on.

[Minny_Weather]

Your radar should begin to fill in as the day wears on.

Oh it will, I'm just worried this dry air right now will cut into total accumulations, as it means less time with snow falling. 

[jaster220]

I got out to my car about 7:10 and I want to say I had to use my Canadian Snow Rake on the earliest date EVER!  No signs of snow falling on the car while it was still above freezing either, so at least there wasn't that layer of stuck-on ice under the snow and just minimal scraping on the front windshield. 

 

Had a first time experience of seeing snow plows throwing snow onto a green median. Not green like spring, but green enough to notice under the snow. 

 

KJXN reported 1/4 mi visibility for 2 hourly reports at the time I was finally getting into the office after traffic on 94 was sometimes down around 35 mph

 

Pretty amazing that portions of SMI (mostly SEMI) will likely blow away the early Nov 1966 storm totals which required a freakish dip in the Jet Stream to pull off back then. Also, yet another analog match-up as that went on to be one of the best snow seasons for this part of the country. 

 

I measured a solid 1.5" on my "board" before heading out.  Vis at the airport in Marshall has been as low as 0.5 mi since then. 

 

Happy Vet's Day to all and Happy B-day for James1976 

[East Dubzz]

I had 4.1” of snow on my deck this morning. Not sure how that’ll match up with the official amount, but I’m sure it won’t be all too far off.

[Stacsh]

   Back under a heavier band over Grand Rapids.   Nice surprise.  Might actually eek out 3-4" from this.  

[jaster220]

Someone here in SEMI will get buried......

 

PREV DISCUSSION...

Issued at 351 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

 

DISCUSSION...

 

Water vapor imagery early this morning suggests model trends to a

more amplified mid/upper level shortwave over the past several runs

is indeed on track. In fact, the degree to which the southwestern

extent of trough in the vicinity of WY/CO is still digging southeast

show perhaps that models still have just a bit catching up to do.

This stronger solution has already allow for a rapid intensification

of jet energy over the Great Lakes/southern Ontario with a core of

this feature already exceeding 150 kts (per 00z APX/GRB soundings).

The eastern edge of entrance region has already had some influence

on fgen forcing overnight with pockets of light snow having produced

a dusting of snow. This forcing will increase through the rest of

the morning as jet dynamics become increasingly favorable over the

region as broad scale lift with this system migrates eastward into

the Great Lakes.

Lake effect/enhancement remains a big part of this event and should

begin to take shape near the Thumb over the next several hours now

that a secondary cold front has dropped south into the area and

allowed wind direction to veer to the N/NNE. As very cold airmass

deepens into the morning hours within this flow, expect extreme

instability to develop given the delta-T that sets up between the

relatively mild lake temperatures early in the season and a near

record to record airmass for the second week of November. Modified

equilibrium levels remain on track to increase to near 15kft over

the next 12-18 hours (although initial echo tops of lake effect

elements over northern Lake Huron are currently topping out around

10kft early this morning).

 

With the upper trough at least as strong as 00z cycle models show,

and thermal troughing over the lakes increasing into the day with

the advent of the lead edge of the arctic airmass, feel much more

confident that low level flow will remain from the NNE/NE through

the day and into the evening. This will support a steady onslaught

of lake effect snow showers/squalls into the Thumb region and also

suggests and significant activity will likely migrate down Saginaw

Bay and impact Tuscola county significant into at least this

evening. The western edge of this enhancement will most likely reach

portions of Saginaw/Bay counties as well.

 

Given this increase in confidence, will upgrade Tuscola to a warning

and add Saginaw/Bay to the Winter Weather Advisory (with at least

some chance of an upgrade here as well depending on how the dominant

lake effect banding sets up during the course of the morning. By

increase snowfall back into these locations, have also upped totals

over Huron county where at least parts of the county will receive

rather steady moderate to heavy snow squalls over the next 12-18

hours. Snow squalls with echo tops between 10kft-15kft will very

much support snowfall rates of several inches per hour, especially

given the favorable DGZ that evolves through the saturated layer.

During the most intense snow squalls, would not be surprised at all

if thunder snow occurs.

 

Confidence is rather high that some areas will receive 12-18 inches

of snow in Huron county (and perhaps parts of Sanilac county) as

activity persist into the overnight tonight with low level flow

gradually backing to the N/NNW. Depending on how persistent banding

is in any given location, local 2 foot amounts would not be

unreasonable. On the edge of this heaviest/most persistent snow

squall activity, widely varying snowfall amounts can be expected and

generally will fall in the 6-12 inch range by tonight with some

locally higher amounts. The trend during the course of today and

tonight suggest the best focus will extend from Huron county back

southwest through the bay initially and then shift southward along

the Lake Huron shoreline by evening into the overnight hours. This

activity will migrate more and more into the open waters of Lake

Huron by Tuesday, but still may impact the eastern portions of the

Thumb (especially Huron county).

 

Given the widespread snow cover that will in place by tonight,

expect record cold temperatures to ensue from Tuesday into Wednesday

as the increased surface albedo (and resultant increase in reflected

solar radiation) will act to enhance an already frigid airmass.

 

  Those amounts would be insane in the middle of any winter. I mean the Thumb just doesn't get that kind of LES very often or they would be considered another LES belt region of the Mitt and there would be snowmobiling trails, etc for recreational purposes to help their economy. My sister lived up that way back in the 90's and a local farmer told her that their "biggie" for that region was sometime during WW2, thus it didn't get too much attention nor was I able to locate any details about it. My guess is that it was similar to this set-up where that region got hammered much worse than the more populated counties south. 

[Clinton]

Moderate snow falling with a dusting of accumulation.  Radar return look good for a inch or 2 of snowfall. 

[Niko]

Oh it will, I'm just worried this dry air right now will cut into total accumulations, as it means less time with snow falling. 

That is a possibility, yes, unless it comes down very hvy for ya area later on and makes up for loss of time.

[Niko]

  Those amounts would be insane in the middle of any winter. I mean the Thumb just doesn't get that kind of LES very often or they would be considered another LES belt region of the Mitt and there would be snowmobiling trails, etc for recreational purposes to help their economy. My sister lived up that way back in the 90's and a local farmer told her that their "biggie" for that region was sometime during WW2, thus it didn't get too much attention nor was I able to locate any details about it. My guess is that it was similar to this set-up where that region got hammered much worse than the more populated counties south. 

Yep, the Thumb regions could be looking at historic snowfall.

 

Hopefully, I will get some of their snowbands in my area later tanite and tomorrow morning.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Maybe an inch or so here. Tough to say as it blew around and there's lots of bare ground. We have probably "nickeled and dimed" our way to a whopping 1.5" of snow in 3 events so far this winter.  

Give me 68 and sunny like it was Saturday vs 16 and this crap in November

[jaster220]

   Back under a heavier band over Grand Rapids.   Nice surprise.  Might actually eek out 3-4" from this.  

 

Yesterday's pm update mentioned that due to banding, locations further north from the higher qpf zones could still do well. Good luck to ya!

[Niko]

I got out to my car about 7:10 and I want to say I had to use my Canadian Snow Rake on the earliest date EVER!  No signs of snow falling on the car while it was still above freezing either, so at least there wasn't that layer of stuck-on ice under the snow and just minimal scraping on the front windshield. 

 

Had a first time experience of seeing snow plows throwing snow onto a green median. Not green like spring, but green enough to notice under the snow. 

 

KJXN reported 1/4 mi visibility for 2 hourly reports at the time I was finally getting into the office after traffic on 94 was sometimes down around 35 mph

 

Pretty amazing that portions of SMI (mostly SEMI) will likely blow away the early Nov 1966 storm totals which required a freakish dip in the Jet Stream to pull off back then. Also, yet another analog match-up as that went on to be one of the best snow seasons for this part of the country. 

 

I measured a solid 1.5" on my "board" before heading out.  Vis at the airport in Marshall has been as low as 0.5 mi since then. 

 

Happy Vet's Day to all and Happy B-day for James1976 

If that happens, I think it will be the top 4 November snowstorms for SEMI.

[Tom]

Yikes...this must have been a bit scary for passengers on this plane that landed into ORD not long ago...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1193907302316859392

[Niko]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

1034 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019
 
 

MIZ048-053-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-120100-

/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-191112T0500Z/

Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-

Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

Including the cities of Bay City, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer,

Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe

1034 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019
 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST

TONIGHT...
 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7

  inches.
 

* WHERE...Bay, Saginaw, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, Livingston,

  Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee, and Monroe Counties.
 

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.
 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread snowfall will continue through

  much of the afternoon into the evening hours. Temperatures will

  hold steady in the upper 20s and low 30s into the early

  afternoon before gradually dropping. This will allow for

  notable accumulations on area roadways.

 

[Andie]

Thankfully they were slowing down. Definitely unnerving.

[Niko]

Yikes...this must have been a bit scary for passengers on this plane that landed into ORD not long ago...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1193907302316859392

Darn risky to land in such bad conditons...wow. Surprised they did not route this plane somewhere safer for landing.

 

Also, looking nasty ova there by your neck of the woods.

[jaster220]

If that happens, I think it will be the top 4 November snowstorms for SEMI.

 

IF you limit the list to first half of November, this could easily take #1 since I saw a list put up by DTW's official snowfall measuring guy yesterday. As for the entire month of Nov, I'm not certain what those records are tbh?

[jaster220]

Darn risky to land in such bad conditons...wow. Surprised they did not route this plane somewhere safer for landing.

 

Also, looking nasty ova there by your neck of the woods.

 

  copy that, pounding here in Jackson, but appears that the heaviest returns are a bit south and way up north by GR

 

[jaster220]

Looks like OKWx got a headline?? 

[Stacsh]

  copy that, pounding here in Jackson, but appears that the heaviest returns are a bit south and way up north by GR

 

20191111 Nexrad 10-37 am.PNG

 I wonder if here in GR we are getting some extra juice from Saginaw Bay/Huron. 

[Niko]

  copy that, pounding here in Jackson, but appears that the heaviest returns are a bit south and way up north by GR

 

20191111 Nexrad 10-37 am.PNG

Yep and looks like the heaviest appears to be south of ya. Hopefully, it takes on your county. Cant wait to get in on the hvy stuff later this afternoon. Peak intensity by then into early evening.

[jaster220]

This may have already surpassed last Jan's PV induced storm wrt intensity tho that one had higher winds, and looks to out-perform it in amounts as well

 

[jaster220]

 I wonder if here in GR we are getting some extra juice from Saginaw Bay/Huron. 

 

Pretty certain that's indeed the case and Hi-res models were hinting at that possibility tbh. Nice to see them verify(ing)

[westMJim]

The latest snow fall measurement here at my house is 3.3"

[westMJim]

 I wonder if here in GR we are getting some extra juice from Saginaw Bay/Huron. 

Looking at the radar yes that could be the case. Unusual for that to happen here but the lakes are still very warm and The Saginaw Bay is still open. Later in the season with a NE wind that is less likely as the bay will ice over as it is very shallow. My wife is up in Bay City I will call her later and see how much snow they have over there.

[Niko]

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1110 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

.UPDATE...

Widespread snowfall associated with deep isentropic lift through the
292-304K layers will slowly sweep eastward across the southern Lower
Peninsula through the balance of the afternoon. Three notable banded
regions of enhanced precipitation are linked to frontogenesis along
stair-steps of the isentropic surface. The southern band is
affecting the heart of the Metro region and has a little more
elevated instability to work with - thus the response has been rather
vigorous over the last couple of hours - likely producing inch /
hour rates. Farther north and further up the slope, the forcing is
quite respectable, but the stability profile above the front is
slightly less conducive for the highest precipitation rates.
However, the thermal profile rooted in the front supports better
flake size - thus pockets of approaching inch / hour rates are also
possible for the next several hours. The confluence of the banded
structures will continue through the early afternoon, as the frontal
slope continues to steepen and the forcing congeals. Thus, peak rates
are expected to occur in the 17-20z time window - with the best
forcing being across the Metro region.

Additionally, the lake-enhanced response has been emerging on
southern Lake Huron - per Exeter radar. Expect the ENE-WSW oriented
bands to start to back to more NNW-SSW, which will allow for greater
inland penetration through the mid to late afternoon hours. Rates
along the shoreline will exceed and inch per hour with the embedded
squally activity.

Minor forecast alterations have been made to adjust totals
accordingly to the focused mesoscale forcing through the balance of
morning and the expected afternoon evolution. As always, a few
winners and losers on the snowfall totals when frontal banding drives
downscale stronger responses.

[jaster220]

Not only do the models keep snow going into the night-time hours vs ending in the evening like yesterday, the 12k NAM wants to finish up here with a LES band with a Lake Nipigon-to-Superior-to-Michigan connection! That'd be a first to add onto this historic event! 

 

[Niko]

Attm, getting into some heavy snow bands. Temp at 29F. Accumulations look like couple of inches from looking outside my window.