Veteran's Day System

[jaster220]

I think accumulations will be higher, especially where that mesolow forms. Regardless, LES gets involved Tuesday nite. Port Huron might even deliver the goods in mby. That wind component might be just perfect. I believe the more east you are, the better shot you have with this snowstorm.

 

Last November's biggie was a rain-to-snow transition scenario and warm air won the day. By the time it switched, half the qpf had fallen as run-off. Yesterday's models (at least the Euro) were showing this storm as all snow, getting temps sub-freezing prior to moisture streaming in (like Nov 23, 2015). Now it seems models are seeing a bit more liquid Sunday pm into the night prior to a switch to snow. Hopefully, any added moisture isn't just rainfall as the CF sinks south but actually adds to snow totals. Will need to watch that closely. 

[Grizzcoat]

00Z NAM and 3KM both wetter in IA-- probably good news for all.

[Niko]

Last November's biggie was a rain-to-snow transition scenario and warm air won the day. By the time it switched, half the qpf had fallen as run-off. Yesterday's models (at least the Euro) were showing this storm as all snow, getting temps sub-freezing prior to moisture streaming in (like Nov 23, 2015). Now it seems models are seeing a bit more liquid Sunday pm into the night prior to a switch to snow. Hopefully, any added moisture isn't just rainfall as the CF sinks south but actually adds to snow totals. Will need to watch that closely. 

Good point.

[jaster220]

This arctic air driving due south across a wide portion of the midwest reminds me so much of the March 1st, 2016 set-up. We'd gotten that major storm a few days earlier on 2/24-25, but then in Nino fashion, temps torched on the 27th-29th, before a similar arctic front came rushing in from the north just in time to provide an all snow event.

 

[Niko]

12z Euro held steady and looks to have upwards of 0.35-0.4 qpf here. Does anyone have a Kuchera snow map for that run? Thx

I think its very good. Portions of MI exceeds 6", especially, Southern MI....

[Niko]

Anyone have info on the latest NAM? Curious to see if its playing catch-up w the other models.

[jaster220]

Anyone have info on the latest NAM? Curious to see if its playing catch-up w the other models.

 

NAM 12k going bonkers with qpf now for SEMI 

 

[Grizzcoat]

3km nam-

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019111000&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam4km

[Grizzcoat]

12KM nam-

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2019111000&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Clinton]

18z Euro I'm rooting for you.

[jaster220]

NAM middle of the pack for mby, but sure gives SEMI a huge boost via Lk Huron. Niko's gonna rake in if it's right. 

 

[jaster220]

18z Euro I'm rooting for you.

 

  Thanks for posting buddy. Staying steady with 6-8 ish around SCMI which would be really nice. 

[jaster220]

Major kudos to Tom for calling "storm day" from miles and miles away! 

[Clinton]

  Thanks for posting buddy. Staying steady with 6-8 ish around SCMI which would be really nice. 

Good luck I hope you get it.  You and Niko are going to get buried this winter!

[Hawkeye]

ICON is very close to the Euro.

 

The HRRR and NAM are more in southern Iowa.

 

[Niko]

NAM 12k going bonkers with qpf now for SEMI 

 

20191110 0z namconus_qpf to h69.png

   Am I reading .75'-1.00"??!! Correct me IF I am wrong...If its right....6-10" by NAM

[Niko]

NAM middle of the pack for mby, but sure gives SEMI a huge boost via Lk Huron. Niko's gonna rake in if it's right. 

 

20191110 0z namconus_Snowfall to h69.png

[jaster220]

Good luck I hope you get it.  You and Niko are going to get buried this winter!

 

You're extremely generous Clinton, I hope this winter's good down your way as well. 

 

Speaking of the bolded..Tom? is this on your radar amigo?

 

[Grizzcoat]

00Z GFS keeps the wetter trend going here in C.IA--- borderline WWA.

[Hawkeye]

Welcome, GFS.

 

[Grizzcoat]

[Clinton]

00Z GFS keeps the wetter trend going here in C.IA--- borderline WWA.

Also keeps trending further west, which should be good for everybody.

[Grizzcoat]

-https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019111000&fh=48

[jaster220]

Welcome, GFS.

 

 

Maybe NOW my office will take this event more seriously. The SR American suite were so dry, the pm AFD hasically was a "storm cancel" 

[Hawkeye]

Last five runs of the GFS...

 

[Grizzcoat]

Just W of DSM-   went from .07-.10 QPF to ..27" QPF-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.60  LON =  -93.88                                            00Z NOV10   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SUN 00Z 10-NOV   8.8    11.4    1013      80      65             567     557    SUN 06Z 10-NOV   5.7     9.4    1014      86      52    0.00     566     556    SUN 12Z 10-NOV   2.1     3.9    1018      84      54    0.00     565     550    SUN 18Z 10-NOV   4.4     0.5    1021      62      54    0.00     564     547    MON 00Z 11-NOV   1.5    -2.4    1023      70      82    0.00     561     542    MON 06Z 11-NOV  -3.8    -7.1    1027      88      97    0.10     558     536    MON 12Z 11-NOV  -7.0   -14.6    1033      91      95    0.16     552     527    MON 18Z 11-NOV  -5.5   -16.8    1036      63      20    0.01     548     520    TUE 00Z 12-NOV  -9.6   -18.1    1037      74      14    0.00     545     518    TUE 06Z 12-NOV                                                               

[Niko]

Also keeps trending further west, which should be good for everybody.

Bud, your looking good w this storm. Borderline w mix to snow. Minor accumulations, hopefully, more than that.

[Grizzcoat]

wow-

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019111000&fh=54&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[Clinton]

Bud, your looking good w this storm. Borderline w mix to snow. Minor accumulations, hopefully, more than that.

I'll be thrilled with anything this time of year!

[Niko]

I'll be thrilled with anything this time of year!

Indeed...anything this time of the year is a bonus in the package.

[jaster220]

GFS/NAM bring the cold down quicker, and thus the heavier swath across SMI is the tier of border counties. Hoping that self-corrects to what the Euro/ICON have along 94. Otherwise, very pleased with our American 48 hour model. 

[jaster220]

Having a little snow cover north of me/us could aid in getting the cold air in here this time vs. Halloween

 

[Clinton]

I think the -AO that we have good be the cause for this trend.  The trend has been for stronger sand further west, both suggest that models underestimated the strength of the jet stream.

[jaster220]

00Z GFS keeps the wetter trend going here in C.IA--- borderline WWA.

 

So you'd think it'd be even wetter east, yet it doesn't seem to be, lol (scratches head)

[jaster220]

GFS/NAM bring the cold down quicker, and thus the heavier swath across SMI is the tier of border counties. Hoping that self-corrects to what the Euro/ICON have along 94. Otherwise, very pleased with our American 48 hour model. 

 

 I almost feel like the proverbial armchair quarterback   

 

Per a real Met's post at AmWx:

 

 

I see no reason not to go full Euro/RGEM at this point given the American guidance performance.

 

Pretty prolonged period of light to briefly moderate fgen snow Sunday night into Monday morning from IA to northern IL/southern WI and southern MI, followed by a nice ana-frontal snow shield that expands/intensifies from west to east Monday into Monday night as the 500mb vort and right-entrance quadrant of the upper level jet streak swing through.  Soundings don't look perfect for high ratios but they will be more than 10:1 by late Sunday night and Monday as colder air pours in.  Don't see why there won't be 2-4" of snow from parts of IA east, and probably more like 3-6" for northern IL and southern MI.  The NAM is still trending towards a slightly sharper shortwave with higher heights ahead of it so it will likely move the northern edge north towards the Euro and RGEM in MI.

[Niko]

 I almost feel like the proverbial armchair quarterback   

 

Per a real Met's post at AmWx:

Funny how the NAM was in a different world earlier today. It finally woke up!

[jaster220]

Funny how the NAM was in a different world earlier today. It finally woke up!

 

It is a Short Range model after all, so it's now more in it's comfort zone. I fault it much less than our pathetic GFS that seems totally clueless in the Mid-ranges (3-5 days out). As for that Met's post, if indeed the NAM is still correcting, it's possible it could get even a bit more amped over our way. 

[Grizzcoat]

CMC is also more robust....

[Niko]

It is a Short Range model after all, so it's now more in it's comfort zone. I fault it much less than our pathetic GFS that seems totally clueless in the Mid-ranges (3-5 days out). As for that Met's post, if indeed the NAM is still correcting, it's possible it could get even a bit more amped over our way. 

If that is the case, this could turn out to be a major snowstorm for a lot of real estate w advisory type warning snows here in SMI.

 

Btw: My forecast for Tuesday calls PM snow. I am thinking that Port Huron kicks in.

[jaster220]

CMC is also more robust....

 

Yep, per Kuchera it's now in lock-step with Euro 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019111000&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

Edit-in lockstep for SMI I meant