Veteran's Day System

[Clinton]

0z GEM treating Tom and us eastward pretty well (other models are mixed results)

 

20191109 0zGEM Snowfall h72.png

I'm rooting for the GEM!!!!

[jaster220]

Toledo-Monroe is probably the biggest jump the models have made so far in the bullseye. That's only 15 miles.

 

Here's 00z Euro. I'll take this despite me being in a sucker hole. Just as long as we get the clipper GFS is advertising as well.

 

 

Kuchera overdone?? Those numbers are like double the 10:1 maps, and this is early season typically wetter snows. Nice eye candy but not sure I buy it?

 

Some 24 hr 10:1 totals for the first wave/system on Vet's Day:

 

Chi-town

 

 

SMI

 

[jaster220]

A little closer look at the eye-candy map TOL_Weather posted    I see you Kuchera!

 

[jaster220]

GRR "inching" their way to a headlined event for my area. A plowable event in first half of November has very little precedent here just to be clear. As another of WxBell's analogs pops up, I was a young college student in Genesee Cnty (SEMI) when we got a solid 4" hit on 11/11/83 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

- Polar jet lifts north with the next clipper system today so it
will be warmer (near 40) and the significant snow will be north
of our area

- As the core of that polar jet moves across northern Lower
Michigan Sunday night the cold air will start to push back.
However we may see a 3 to 5 inch snow event Monday morning over
our SE CWA as surface wave develops on the front in conjunction
with that jet core. This will have to be watched.

[jaster220]

GRR's overnight AFD reads more like a middle of winter scenario! wow

 

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

We have three significant weather events to watch in the next
week. First is the jet lift event Sunday night into midday Monday.
All the models have some version of this event but given how
often we get a significant precipitation event when we are in the
entrance region of a 140 to 150 knot jet core as a surface wave
develops on the front to our south, I would say we may well see
enough snow Sunday into into midday Monday morning to cause significant
travel issues near and south of I-96. The latest run of the ECMWF
has between .25 and .40 inches of water falling as snow south of a
line from Lansing to Kalamazoo. We need to watch this to see how
this plays out since the jet causing this is part of the reason we
get all that cold air Tuesday into Wednesday.

The polar jet that causes that surface wave Monday finally gets
east of here Monday evening. It is at that time we get into the
really deep cold air and inversion heights rise above 10,000 ft.
Since we have an east coast storm at that point, winds through 700
mb will mostly be from the north or north northwest Monday night
into early Wednesday. So, this will create a narrow but intense
dominant lake snow band that for the most part will stay near and
west of US-131 Monday night into early Wednesday. At locations
like South Haven there is strong lift centered in the DGZ, which
is in the 2000 ft to 5000 ft layer (where the clouds will be).
This could be a warning class event (over a very narrow area)
during this time. Winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30
mph with heavy snow falling for many hours in locations like
South Haven and Covert.

Meanwhile inland of that due to the north winds and the dominant
snow band not much will happen, it will just be cold! Maybe a few
flurries or light snow showers but not much accumulation. Record
low highs are in the mid to upper 20s (27 at Grand Rapids and
Muskegon, 29 Lansing and Baldwin, 26 Jackson) so record low highs
are more than possible. Even if the sun comes out at inland sites.

There is of course another upstream Pacific system that moves into
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. That boots this cold air
system east and brings warmer (relative to Tuesday and Wednesday)
air back to the area. The warm advection snow event is more than
possible Thursday. If that happens most of the area would see 2 to
4 inches of snow before afternoon temperatures warm into the 40s
Friday into the following weekend.

[jaster220]

MORE craziness!  Freezing Spray on Lk. Michigan before Nov 15th??

 

 

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019

We do not plan on changing our Marine headlines as it looks like
what we have been forecasting will in fact happen as forecast. The
southwest wind event causing our latest headlines will let up
early Sunday morning. Our headlines will come back soon after this
one expires as the cold air starts coming in Sunday night. This
event will likely last into late Tuesday or early Wednesday. We
may have freezing spray with this event on Tuesday. Lake shore
flooding will likely be an issue with the Monday night into
Tuesday event too.

[jaster220]

DTX's AFD does a nice job of breaking down the critical "timing issue" I mentioned yesterday. 

 

 

The main weather concern continues to center on the potential for a
widespread accumulating snow event across Southeast Michigan Late
Sunday night and during the day on Monday. Global models have largely
held onto their consensus which brings a frontal wave/deep
frontogenesis along baroclinic zone directly over Southeast Michigan.
Initial support for precipitation will spread into Southeast
Michigan after 06Z Monday as strong right entrance region dynamics
spread through the southern Great Lakes. Thereafter, very strong
height falls takeover across the area as deep arctic trough turns
hard from a strongly positive tilt to more neutral, in addition to
increasing anticyclonic curvature to upper level jet and entrance
region. The disagreement in the models is a big one, and it revolves
around timing. The NAM solution is quicker with the frontal boundary
and results in more widespread precipitation generation to the south
and east of the area, whereas, the ECMWF is slower and results in
main snow development directly overhead Monday. Still largely
outside of the hi res window here in the 48-72 hr timeframe so much
needs to be ironed out. The going forecast continues to call for
roughly 2 to 4 inches of snow mainly from 09 Monday - 00 Tuesday.

The other aspect of this forecast that will need attention is the
potential for heavy lake effect snows for portions of the Thumb
streaming onshore from Lake Huron. Some model solutions suggesting a
easterly component to north flow as a result of strong gradient from
the anomalous cold. Very good signal for strong lake aggregate
troughing directly through the Southern basin of Lake Huron. The most
likely time-frame for this lake enhancement transitioning to pure lake
effect will be 18Z Monday to 06Z Tuesday. For now, the lake effect
snow forecast is rolled into the aforementioned 2-4 inch mention of
the frontal system. The potential certainly exists for additional
snow accumulations with the lake effect. Arctic cold to be in place
over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with highs not climbing out of
the 20s.

 

 

From past experience, this is a classic set-up for areas at the southern end of Lk. Huron to get pounded with add'l LES

[Minny_Weather]

Kuchera overdone?? Those numbers are like double the 10:1 maps, and this is early season typically wetter snows. Nice eye candy but not sure I buy it?

 

Some 24 hr 10:1 totals for the first wave/system on Vet's Day:

 

Chi-town

 

20191109 0zEuroHR h66 Chicago 24hr Snow totals.png

 

SMI

 

20191109 0zEuroHR h72 24hr Snow totals.png

It depends on the temp. If temps are below freezing, Kuchera may be onto something. The only hindrance in that scenario is warmer ground may slow down accumulations initially. 

 

Now if we see NAM-like temps then Kuchera and 10:1 will both be overdone.

[Niko]

Widespread accumulating snow event across Southeast Michigan Late
Sunday night and on into Monday is looking good.

[jaster220]

It depends on the temp. If temps are below freezing, Kuchera may be onto something. The only hindrance in that scenario is warmer ground may slow down accumulations initially. 

 

Now if we see NAM-like temps then Kuchera and 10:1 will both be overdone.

 

Yeah, ground temps aren't cold like in winter, but those to our north and west did ok with the Halloween storm despite that fact. And tbh, this current cold wave has certainly cooled soils quite a bit from where they were. I noticed all the ponds iced up as well, which via old school SEMI rules meant we were ready for our first real snowfall. As long as this progress isn't totally erased by today and tomorrow's high temps, I'm liking where things sit attm. At least we have some fun to track, eh?

[Niko]

Toledo-Monroe is probably the biggest jump the models have made so far in the bullseye. That's only 15 miles.

 

Here's 00z Euro. I'll take this despite me being in a sucker hole. Just as long as we get the clipper GFS is advertising as well.

[Niko]

A little closer look at the eye-candy map TOL_Weather posted    I see you Kuchera!

 

20191109 0zEuroHR h90 Kuchera Snow totals-zoomed for sub.PNG

Am I seeing 10 inches for mby??!! Holy crap!

[jaster220]

Noteable to my eyes (and one of the AFD's I posted mentions as well) is how strong this wave is for Montana. It seems to have come on stronger in the last 24-36 hrs. Could be a good sign for us downstream

[jaster220]

Am I seeing 10 inches for mby??!! Holy crap!

 

Thus why I'm a bit hesitant on buying into that interpretation of how this goes. Guess I'm still bitten by the SR model failure around here with the Halloween storm when many/most ramped up snowfall which got me a headline but nothing to show for it. The models blew chunks on reading the temp profiles at the lower levels and we could be seeing that again. Won't know until it happens, but this isn't DJFM when we could have better confidence. Nonetheless, an early and possibly historic early first snow looking more and more likely so I'm stoked personally at the trends. Nice to see the Euro remaining steady and GRR agreeing with it's amt's. 

[Niko]

I like the fact that after this snowstorm, low temps get bitterly cold. My temps are forecasted to drop in the single digits. W snowcover around, clear skies and an arctic HP on top of us, I would not be surprise if someone sees subzero readings. Truly amazing for early November standards.

[Niko]

Thus why I'm a bit hesitant on buying into that interpretation of how this goes. Guess I'm still bitten by the SR model failure around here with the Halloween storm when many/most ramped up snowfall which got me a headline but nothing to show for it. The models blew chunks on reading the temp profiles at the lower levels and we could be seeing that again. Won't know until it happens, but this isn't DJFM when we could have better confidence. Nonetheless, an early and possibly historic early first snow looking more and more likely so I'm stoked personally at the trends. Nice to see the Euro remaining steady and GRR agreeing with it's amt's. 

Agree 100%. This could become a historic event that goes in the record book. Still, not locked into it yet. I will wait for tanites models and possibly even tomorrow mornings runs. Then, if everything looks the same, we can call it a lock by Sunday afternoon.

[jaster220]

I like the fact that after this snowstorm, low temps get bitterly cold. My temps are forecasted to drop in the single digits. W snowcover around, clear skies and an arctic HP on top of us, I would not be surprise if someone sees subzero readings. Truly amazing for early November standards.

 

Novembuary! 

 

[Niko]

Novembuary! 

 

20191111-13 Novembuary!.PNG

annnnnnd to a good snowy Winter ahead.

[Niko]

[Niko]

I like how 0Z GEM and the Euro destroys SEMI. Dang! Also having Euro on our side is a major plus.

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI411 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019MIZ063-070-100915-St. Clair-Macomb-411 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightA lakeshore flood warning is in effect. Refer to the latest CoastalHazard Message for details..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through FridayLow pressure will lift through the Ohio Valley on Monday. Thepotential exists for 2 to 4 inches of snow that may impact both theMonday morning and Monday evening commutes.

[Hawkeye]

The euro is now drifting back upward with snow around here.

 

[bud2380]

Euro by far the most bullish model. GFS and NAM have mostly a dry frontal passage. Interesting to see how this plays out.

[Clinton]

The euro is now drifting back upward with snow around here.

 

Looks a lot like the Canadian, hope it's on to something!

[james1976]

Yes Euro! Dry front would be kind of a bummer.

[Money]

NAM looks better for you guys as well

[Minny_Weather]

NAM looks better for you guys as well

Does cool things down sufficiently. Now I just need it to be way more moist. I don't think it's doing a good job accounting for potential lake enhancement here.

[Niko]

Model solutions remain in strong agreement in phasing upper jet
energy within the base of a Hudson Bay polar low, resulting in a 150
knot upper jet max from northern Lower Mi into Southern Quebec
Sunday night. Meanwhile, a strong positive PV anomaly is forecast to
drop southward from northern Canada into northern Minnesota by
Monday morning, leading to impressive mid level height falls across
the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. There will be a corresponding
tightening of the low to mid level frontal boundary across the
southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. This will help
gradually drive the arctic air southward across the forecast area.
Frontogenetical forcing will be aided by entrance region jet support,
with the fgen possibly persisting into Mon afternoon. The ECMWF
continues to be stronger/more persistent with the forcing across Se
Mi. The NAM has however trended a bit in its direction. From a pure
synoptic standpoint and taking into consideration the expected
moistening along the elevated front, total snowfall amounts from
the various model solutions are anywhere from an inch with the
weaker solutions to 2 to 4 inches from the stronger solutions.
However, there looks to be a potential Lake Huron enhancement that
may support some locally higher totals (in some cases perhaps
significantly higher).

[Niko]

18z NAM is slowly turning its head around and leaning towards Euro and Canadian.

[Grizzcoat]

Most  18Z guidance has slightly increased totals for most reading this. Arctic fronts like this are difficult to model for snows and I think todays' warm temperatures (at least here in IA- 58F at DSM) will help things with some added moisture albeit it slight. It's all it takes to take a 1" event into 2-3" pretty quickly.

 

*** edit - wow , mid to upper 70's in E.NE!! *** that should set up a nice baroclinic zone

[jaster220]

Not sure what exactly the GEM has going on different than other guidance, but it keeps more snow flying over the Mitt (on and off for 36 hrs) and hits SCMI with a bunch more of the white stuff. 

 

[jaster220]

12z Euro held steady and looks to have upwards of 0.35-0.4 qpf here. Does anyone have a Kuchera snow map for that run? Thx

[jaster220]

GEM's little bro "R" is really sweet. Brings rain in here by noon, that eventually switches to snow about 10 pm tomorrow night. Then it keeps things going steady all day Monday. Still snowing at h54 Monday evening when this map shows 5-6" 

 

[Niko]

Not sure what exactly the GEM has going on different than other guidance, but it keeps more snow flying over the Mitt (on and off for 36 hrs) and hits SCMI with a bunch more of the white stuff. 

 

20191109 12z GEM Surf loop h42-90.gif

Non-stop snow...wow

[jaster220]

Non-stop snow...wow

 

Yeah, like middle of winter stuff. Right now GEM/RGEM are on their own with that scenario but other models have flashed the MesoLow potential and I think that's were the extra snow is coming from wrt the Canadian models. Should look and feel plenty wintry regardless. 

 

Would be awesome if this somehow manages to beat last Nov's bliz remnant that hit on the 26th. 

[jaster220]

well, well now. 18z Euro tells RGEM "hold my beer" and ups it's qpf AOA 1/2" over here! Maybe these trends are legit?

 

[Niko]

well, well now. 18z Euro tells RGEM "hold my beer" and ups it's qpf AOA 1/2" over here! Maybe these trends are legit?

 

20191109 18zEuroHR h66 QPR totals.png

I think accumulations will be higher, especially where that mesolow forms. Regardless, LES gets involved Tuesday nite. Port Huron might even deliver the goods in mby. That wind component might be just perfect. I believe the more east you are, the better shot you have with this snowstorm.

[jaster220]

I think accumulations will be higher, especially where that mesolow forms. Regardless, LES gets involved Tuesday nite. Port Huron might even deliver the goods in mby. That wind component might be just perfect.

 

Yep, you actually stand a better chance of getting helped by Huron than I do by Michigan. I only see a brief window of LES coming far enough inland to hit Marshall Tuesday night. 

[Niko]

Yep, you actually stand a better chance of getting helped by Huron than I do by Michigan. I only see a brief window of LES coming far enough inland to hit Marshall Tuesday night. 

Yep.....

 

Also, RGEM is sweet. Slams your area and Detroit Metro w 4-6"+ totals

[jaster220]

18z GEM qpf has that nice sweet spot of 15 mm(+) [.6"] qpf over SCMI. Man, sure would be nice if it were correct. Still, much better trends than drying up the system. Thru h60 btw