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11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 27 November 2019 - 12:27 PM

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Mother nature just doesn't want to stop as another powerhouse storm is forecast to target the northern portion of our Sub after smashing records out west.  A major trough has been unleashing its fury out on the west coast.  As this system slowly ejects out into the Upper MW on Black Friday, holiday shoppers will be dealing with snow and how much blocking will be present to help aid and funnel enough cold air for our members up north that may potential add to the ever building Glacier.

 

Today's 12z Euro's snowfall map is quite amazing as this storm will leave a footprint of snow all the way from the mountains of Cali, through the Rockies, and into the GL's region.

 

 

Let's discuss....

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

 

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

There may even be some severe wx potential out in the Plains with this system...another fascinating Beast of a storm that may in fact become another Blizzard for the Dakotas region.

 

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png


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#2
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 12:46 PM

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There may even be some severe wx potential out in the Plains with this system...another fascinating Beast of a storm that may in fact become another Blizzard for the Dakotas region.

 

So much for my call that the action would shift east and limit that region to NW flow clippers, lol. 

 

Kudos to NOAA tho:

 

Attached File  20191121 NOAA 3-mos Precip Anoms.gif   33.94KB   0 downloads


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#3
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2019 - 12:56 PM

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Right now looking like a front end thump of snow, turning to a mix, then rain, then back to another thump of snow. Might be the kitchen sink storm for the metro. Inside 40 hours from the start already.

#4
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2019 - 01:03 PM

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Well, a winter storm warning for storm #1 expired at noon. 3 hours later a new winter storm watch issued for storm #2. Wild times
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#5
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 01:07 PM

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Well, a winter storm warning for storm #1 expired at noon. 3 hours later a new winter storm watch issued for storm #2. Wild times

 

:lol:  Livin' Large up there, aren't we??  


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#6
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 01:14 PM

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Right now looking like a front end thump of snow, turning to a mix, then rain, then back to another thump of snow. Might be the kitchen sink storm for the metro. Inside 40 hours from the start already.

 

Not too many hrs spent in between front snow and back tho, at least per 18z NAM.  NWMI "just" out of range at 84 hrs. Hoping NAM/GEM can lead the way and other models start to get a bit colder Saturday evening/night. As is, looking like RN or Mix turns to SN sometime overnight. 


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#7
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2019 - 01:42 PM

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From MPX....you know why it doesn’t pass the smell test? Because it stinks. Plain and painfully simple.

One should be skeptical
of the GFS, if not for the sole reason it is a pronounced
outlier, but that it`s stacked low pressure system is further
south and yet its dry slot is still further north than the other
models. It just doesn`t pass the smell test.
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#8
Stormgeek

Posted 27 November 2019 - 02:12 PM

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This should be a fun (and messy) storm to track and experience. That dry slot and warm tongue are going to create a nightmare for MSP to deal with likely until showtime. To top it off I am sitting really close to where they are thinking might be the all snow vs mix line (if I am reading correctly). It is always nice to have the Euro on your side. Full speed ahead!
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#9
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 27 November 2019 - 03:32 PM

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Winter weather advisory issued for here for tomorrow for up to 1" of snow(where I have seen that before) and a little bit of icing. Then after that it's rain and more rain with temps in the 40s to near 50 for Friday and Saturday.



#10
snowstorm83

Posted 27 November 2019 - 04:10 PM

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Winter weather advisory issued for here for tomorrow for up to 1" of snow(where I have seen that before) and a little bit of icing. Then after that it's rain and more rain with temps in the 40s to near 50 for Friday and Saturday.

 

Husker game looks rainy with melting snow. So at least Iowa winning won't be the only nasty thing happening on Friday. 


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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 2.4" (so far)  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#11
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 05:12 PM

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@ Niko & Matt

 

Heads up SEMI Peeps!

 

CPC now putting you in the game:

 

Attached File  20191127 hazards_d3_7_contours.png   415.48KB   4 downloads


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#12
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 05:33 PM

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Just reading thru WSWatches out of MSP and yikes, there's some serious wording. 12+ inches and 45 mph winds! This will be possible for areas that can avoid a mix/rain encroachment. Gonna be really close call around the Twin Cities proper. Per their text, the all snow line would be roughly north of this line:

 

Attached File  20191127 MSP mix line.JPG   85.5KB   0 downloads

 

 

Already, the effects of this system in the Rockies is being felt:

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
PONDERA COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1230 PM MST WED NOV 27 2019

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE PONDERA
COUNTY SHERIFF AND PONDERA COUNTY DISASTER AND EMERGENCY SERVICES.

AS OF NOON, WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 27TH, PONDERA COUNTY HAS DECLARED
AN EMERGENCY TRAVEL ONLY ORDER FOR U.S. HIGHWAY 89. HEAVY SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW HAVE CREATED SEVERE DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE AREA.
THIS ORDER FOR EMERGENCY TRAVEL ONLY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON ON THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28TH, UNLESS INDICATED OTHERWISE.


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#13
Niko

Posted 27 November 2019 - 06:41 PM

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@ Niko & Matt

 

Heads up SEMI Peeps!

 

CPC now putting you in the game:

 

attachicon.gif20191127 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

:o

 

Glitch potential!


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#14
Beltrami Island

Posted 27 November 2019 - 07:52 PM

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The surface track of this storm is very unusual.  Can anyone else remember a large storm system entering the CONUS near Baja, cutting northeast hard until hitting a brick wall near SD/NE then drifting E/SE to the mid atlantic?  I know this thing is pretty much going to turn into a cut off upper level low but still seems very strange to me.


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#15
Clinton

Posted 27 November 2019 - 07:56 PM

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Tom, put that magnet away! 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png


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#16
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2019 - 08:04 PM

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0z NAM went back to just very briefly changing to rain and then immediately back to snow for the MSP metro. Gonna be riding the line here. But sometimes you gotta do that to win big.
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#17
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 08:06 PM

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APX buying into this system much more than yesterday.

 

Tidbits-

 

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)

Issued at 403 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

...When will the Second Storm Hit?...

High Impact Weather Potential...The start of the post-Thanksgiving
weekend storm will begin sometime on Saturday. (Winds and snow)   
High Impact Weather Potential...The backside of the second system will continue into Sunday with significant accumulations possible.


#18
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 08:09 PM

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0z NAM went back to just very briefly changing to rain and then immediately back to snow for the MSP metro. Gonna be riding the line here. But sometimes you gotta do that to win big.

 

NAM's done quite well at these ranges. Way better than the GFS. I would lean on it's portrayal much sooner than most globals actually. Hopefully, they don't touch it and break it. 


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#19
Mi_Matthew

Posted 27 November 2019 - 08:17 PM

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The surface track of this storm is very unusual. Can anyone else remember a large storm system entering the CONUS near Baja, cutting northeast hard until hitting a brick wall near SD/NE then drifting E/SE to the mid atlantic? I know this thing is pretty much going to turn into a cut off upper level low but still seems very strange to me.


I cannot. I was thinking the same thing days ago when the models really started to hone in on that track.

#20
Mi_Matthew

Posted 27 November 2019 - 08:21 PM

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Not sure what CPC saw to shift the heavy snow contour down this way but I hope they're right!
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#21
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2019 - 09:04 PM

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Oh Canada! 

 

Attached File  Oh Canada...jpg   13.3KB   0 downloads

 

GEM continues to drop a hammer on NMI overnight Sat into Sun morning. If anything, it's even more robust and a bit south from prior runs:

 

Attached File  20191128 0z GEM h84.png   194.32KB   0 downloads

 

And in virtual lock-step is the NAM at same range:

 

Attached File  20191128 0z nam h84 Surf.png   205.23KB   0 downloads 

 

 


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#22
Niko

Posted 27 November 2019 - 09:25 PM

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This system will bring a lot of wind again for SEMI. Wow..this is turning out to be a very windy week.


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#23
Niko

Posted 27 November 2019 - 09:26 PM

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Clinton--close call for ya if I'm correct, no?!



#24
Clinton

Posted 28 November 2019 - 06:18 AM

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Clinton--close call for ya if I'm correct, no?!

The CMC would bring a little snow down here Sunday, that would be fantastic.


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#25
Clinton

Posted 28 November 2019 - 06:34 AM

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Happy Thanksgiving everybody!  I hope all of you have a happy and safe holiday weekend.  Here is the EPS snow mean for this weekend, good luck

1575309600-ol5h6ZDqeWg.png

.1575309600-Ums4nWXcPNs.png

1575309600-CorINlEUvuw.png


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#26
Stormgeek

Posted 28 November 2019 - 06:54 AM

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This is a nightmare for MSP forecasters... GFS is being utterly useless again, and amongst other models the rain-snow line is basically sitting on MSP. A day away from arrival of the storm and they are still quite uncertain what is going to happen.
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#27
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 November 2019 - 07:01 AM

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Looks like a C MN smash job. 12z NAM showing precip here for over 2 straight days.
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#28
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 November 2019 - 07:35 AM

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Several inches here already to add to the snow pack before rain tomorrow.
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#29
erburns18

Posted 28 November 2019 - 07:54 AM

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The Omaha dome is in full effect this morning 😂
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#30
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:03 AM

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Happy Thanksgiving everybody!  I hope all of you have a happy and safe holiday weekend.  Here is the EPS snow mean for this weekend, good luck

1575309600-ol5h6ZDqeWg.png

.1575309600-Ums4nWXcPNs.png

1575309600-CorINlEUvuw.png

 

Thanks for this Clinton! Have a great TGD  ;)


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#31
Mi_Matthew

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:04 AM

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Clinton--close call for ya if I'm correct, no?!


Might be a close call for us too, Niko! 12z NAM further south than Canadian was last night. I like that trend.
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#32
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:07 AM

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Looks like a C MN smash job. 12z NAM showing precip here for over 2 straight days.

 

Treats Traverse well too. 15 hrs and still snowing at end of run! Wish they would just trash the GFS already. It just muddies the waters for forecasting offices imho. Good luck up there and have a great Thanksgiving Day! 


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#33
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:26 AM

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Treats Traverse well too. 15 hrs and still snowing at end of run! Wish they would just trash the GFS already. It just muddies the waters for forecasting offices imho. Good luck up there and have a great Thanksgiving Day!


Thanks buddy. Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone else on this board! And good luck up north with this storm. Should be rocking for a while.
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#34
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:37 AM

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Trends overall today have been ticking south with the snow. And if the GEM happens to be right....parts of MN get buried. GFS is in absolute la-la land.
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#35
Niko

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:52 AM

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The CMC would bring a little snow down here Sunday, that would be fantastic.

Indeed...it will bring ya into the Christmas Holiday Spirit. ;)


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#36
Niko

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:54 AM

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Might be a close call for us too, Niko! 12z NAM further south than Canadian was last night. I like that trend.

We will see. TWC has my forecast for Sat nite rain and 33F for a low. We have a shot. Lets see what the models hold for tanite and especially tomorrow. Too bad blocking is not strong enough.


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#37
Bryan1117

Posted 28 November 2019 - 09:00 AM

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The Omaha dome is in full effect this morning

Happy Thanksgiving to all Weather Forums peeps and their families, from my family to yours! 

 

It's the Missouri River effect this morning... it looks like all the returns are drying up as they approach the river. Hoping to at least see some flurries out of this, but I am not sure we even see that at this point. 

 

After last Winter's amazing run, it seems like we can't catch a break so far this year with snow and wintry weather in East Central Nebraska... thankfully it's not even technically Winter yet LOL.

 

Bring on the freezing rain/rain tomorrow, its going to make the Nebraska/Iowa game fun to watch. I think the Huskers might be able to scare the Hawkeyes again this year. 


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#38
Clinton

Posted 28 November 2019 - 09:02 AM

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Indeed...it will bring ya into the Christmas Holiday Spirit. ;)

Getting some sleet this morning.


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#39
Bryan1117

Posted 28 November 2019 - 09:05 AM

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Trends overall today have been ticking south with the snow. And if the GEM happens to be right....parts of MN get buried. GFS is in absolute la-la land.

I have a feeling you guys up in the MSP area are going to get buried by this system after an early bout of rain/sleet/snow mix... enjoy it up there! 

 

Next time around feel free to send some snow down to your snow-starved brothers and sisters to the south LOL! 


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#40
Niko

Posted 28 November 2019 - 09:28 AM

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Getting some sleet this morning.

Looks like you might be going into a transition period to snow eventually.


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#41
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 10:54 AM

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:D  12z Euro is gonna make good on it's snow promise from 4 days ago. Even a couple mb's lower than the NAM was  B)

 

Snowfall map from 12z last Sunday:

 

Attached File  20191124 12z Euro_snowfall_us_h186.png   153.45KB   0 downloads

 

This coming Sunday morning's Surface:

 

Attached File  20191128 12z Euro_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h72.png   283.5KB   0 downloads


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#42
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 11:01 AM

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Western shore of Lake Mich region that got hurt with warmth of yesterday's system will be making up for that according to the models. I think they will do real well in the "banana belt" of the S UP. Looks like lake enhancement will be their friend this go-round! 



#43
Hawkeye

Posted 28 November 2019 - 11:06 AM

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The euro, especially, continues to show a dry hole over Iowa as much of the moisture gets diverted up into the northern plains or eastward into the Ohio Valley.  It only has 0.40-0.50" of rain around here.


season snowfall: 13.1"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#44
Money

Posted 28 November 2019 - 11:30 AM

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Gem with almost 10 inches here and euro hammers central WI

Gfs no where close
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#45
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 11:37 AM

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Gem with almost 10 inches here and euro hammers central WI

Gfs no where close

 

GFS lost on this one. I think most of Wisco does well



#46
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 12:03 PM

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My oldest sister has lived in the Black Hills of SD since the mid-80s. First in the central region, then in the far south in Hot Springs where her gov job took her. That location is the banana belt of the state and will again be very sheltered by the hills from the raging Plains bliz surrounding them. In all these years I cannot remember a storm that was a Major out there, and also came into the Mitt with anything significant. Wild times my friends!

 

Gonna be some krazy blowing and drifting out there:

 

Blizzard Warning

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
217 AM MST Thu Nov 28 2019

...Significant post Thanksgiving winter storm late Friday through
Saturday...

.A vigorous storm system will move from the central Rockies into
the central plains Friday into Saturday. The storm will bring
large amounts of moisture and very strong winds. A wintry mix of
may occur Friday before changing over to all snow Friday night
and early Saturday. Strong winds, with gusts of 50 to 65 mph, will
develop across northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota
Saturday, resulting in widespread blizzard conditions. Snowfall
amounts around a foot are possible along and north of Interstate
90, with up to two feet possible in the northern Black Hills.


Travel could become impossible late Friday night through Saturday
night. Even though the snow will end Saturday night, snow packed
and icy roads will still be found across the area on Sunday.
Persons planning travel over the weekend should consider alternate
plans.


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#47
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 12:35 PM

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Was reading my office and it was like "meh, what storm?", so I toggled to APX and d *mn!  :o

 

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)

Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

High impact weather potential: Winter storm Saturday through Sunday.
Possibly some freezing drizzle south of M-72 late Saturday into
Sunday with the dry slot. Near blizzard conditions possible late
Saturday night through Sunday morning north of M-32 into eastern
upper.

 

That's a bit north of where I'll be, but still..  ;)



#48
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 12:50 PM

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Nothing quite like enjoying a holiday while tracking the next BD storm! And thx to my wife's idea that we go up to Traverse, I'm expecting to be in the game:

 

Sunday looks like it could just be

downright nasty...possibly near blizzard conditions during the
the early morning hours Sunday with heavy snow and strong easterly
winds gusting to over 35 mph over the Tip of the Mitt and Straits
area. Using QPF and snow ratios of around 10:1...most locations
could see 5-8 inches of snow late Saturday night through the day
Sunday, while locally higher amounts will be possible towards the
Tip of the Mitt and eastern upper...some totals of 12+ inches will
not be out of the question. Will start messaging today about the
forecast impacts and stressing that weekend holiday travel will be
impacted...especially late Saturday through Sunday.

 

She asked me about a month ago to make a plan, and this long holiday weekend was the best option. I said "but sweetie, you know it can already be winter in NMI in November?" She still said yes, so I have her to blame (thank) for this increasingly likely rendezvous with the white gold hit. The 3-5-12 rendezvous was totally my idea, but what a memorable adventure that ended up being. Pretty sure my wife and daughter thought we'd never make it into town that night!  :lol: :D


  • Clinton likes this

#49
Niko

Posted 28 November 2019 - 01:06 PM

Niko

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My oldest sister has lived in the Black Hills of SD since the mid-80s. First in the central region, then in the far south in Hot Springs where her gov job took her. That location is the banana belt of the state and will again be very sheltered by the hills from the raging Plains bliz surrounding them. In all these years I cannot remember a storm that was a Major out there, and also came into the Mitt with anything significant. Wild times my friends!

 

Gonna be some krazy blowing and drifting out there:

 

Blizzard Warning

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
217 AM MST Thu Nov 28 2019

...Significant post Thanksgiving winter storm late Friday through
Saturday...

.A vigorous storm system will move from the central Rockies into
the central plains Friday into Saturday. The storm will bring
large amounts of moisture and very strong winds. A wintry mix of
may occur Friday before changing over to all snow Friday night
and early Saturday. Strong winds, with gusts of 50 to 65 mph, will
develop across northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota
Saturday, resulting in widespread blizzard conditions. Snowfall
amounts around a foot are possible along and north of Interstate
90, with up to two feet possible in the northern Black Hills.


Travel could become impossible late Friday night through Saturday
night. Even though the snow will end Saturday night, snow packed
and icy roads will still be found across the area on Sunday.
Persons planning travel over the weekend should consider alternate
plans.

Nice! :)


  • jaster220 likes this

#50
Niko

Posted 28 November 2019 - 01:17 PM

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NOAA:

There is some uncertainty in
regards to lower level thermal profiles during the early Sunday
morning hours especially north of I-69, thus dictating the
precipitation type and related amounts. There may be a period of
light freezing and/or snowfall across the Thumb where surface air
temperatures may fall below freezing allowing for some accumulation
potential. There is a fair amount of model spread during this time,
but impacts look minimal at this point. Temperatures warm up above
freezing throughout Sunday morning and into the 40s by the afternoon
with rain as the p-type for most of southeast Michigan for the day
period.