11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm

[jaster220]

  12z Euro is gonna make good on it's snow promise from 4 days ago. Even a couple mb's lower than the NAM was 

 

Snowfall map from 12z last Sunday:

 

 

This coming Sunday morning's Surface:

 

[jaster220]

Western shore of Lake Mich region that got hurt with warmth of yesterday's system will be making up for that according to the models. I think they will do real well in the "banana belt" of the S UP. Looks like lake enhancement will be their friend this go-round! 

[Hawkeye]

The euro, especially, continues to show a dry hole over Iowa as much of the moisture gets diverted up into the northern plains or eastward into the Ohio Valley.  It only has 0.40-0.50" of rain around here.

[Money]

Gem with almost 10 inches here and euro hammers central WI

 

Gfs no where close

[jaster220]

Gem with almost 10 inches here and euro hammers central WI

 

Gfs no where close

 

GFS lost on this one. I think most of Wisco does well

[jaster220]

My oldest sister has lived in the Black Hills of SD since the mid-80s. First in the central region, then in the far south in Hot Springs where her gov job took her. That location is the banana belt of the state and will again be very sheltered by the hills from the raging Plains bliz surrounding them. In all these years I cannot remember a storm that was a Major out there, and also came into the Mitt with anything significant. Wild times my friends!

 

Gonna be some krazy blowing and drifting out there:

 

Blizzard Warning

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
217 AM MST Thu Nov 28 2019

...Significant post Thanksgiving winter storm late Friday through
Saturday...

.A vigorous storm system will move from the central Rockies into
the central plains Friday into Saturday. The storm will bring
large amounts of moisture and very strong winds. A wintry mix of
may occur Friday before changing over to all snow Friday night
and early Saturday. Strong winds, with gusts of 50 to 65 mph, will
develop across northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota
Saturday, resulting in widespread blizzard conditions. Snowfall
amounts around a foot are possible along and north of Interstate
90, with up to two feet possible in the northern Black Hills.

Travel could become impossible late Friday night through Saturday
night. Even though the snow will end Saturday night, snow packed
and icy roads will still be found across the area on Sunday.
Persons planning travel over the weekend should consider alternate
plans.

[jaster220]

Was reading my office and it was like "meh, what storm?", so I toggled to APX and d *mn! 

 

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)

Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

High impact weather potential: Winter storm Saturday through Sunday.
Possibly some freezing drizzle south of M-72 late Saturday into
Sunday with the dry slot. Near blizzard conditions possible late
Saturday night through Sunday morning north of M-32 into eastern
upper.

 

That's a bit north of where I'll be, but still.. 

[jaster220]

Nothing quite like enjoying a holiday while tracking the next BD storm! And thx to my wife's idea that we go up to Traverse, I'm expecting to be in the game:

 

Sunday looks like it could just be

downright nasty...possibly near blizzard conditions during the
the early morning hours Sunday with heavy snow and strong easterly
winds gusting to over 35 mph over the Tip of the Mitt and Straits
area. Using QPF and snow ratios of around 10:1...most locations
could see 5-8 inches of snow late Saturday night through the day
Sunday, while locally higher amounts will be possible towards the
Tip of the Mitt and eastern upper...some totals of 12+ inches will
not be out of the question. Will start messaging today about the
forecast impacts and stressing that weekend holiday travel will be
impacted...especially late Saturday through Sunday.

 

She asked me about a month ago to make a plan, and this long holiday weekend was the best option. I said "but sweetie, you know it can already be winter in NMI in November?" She still said yes, so I have her to blame (thank) for this increasingly likely rendezvous with the white gold hit. The 3-5-12 rendezvous was totally my idea, but what a memorable adventure that ended up being. Pretty sure my wife and daughter thought we'd never make it into town that night! 

[Niko]

My oldest sister has lived in the Black Hills of SD since the mid-80s. First in the central region, then in the far south in Hot Springs where her gov job took her. That location is the banana belt of the state and will again be very sheltered by the hills from the raging Plains bliz surrounding them. In all these years I cannot remember a storm that was a Major out there, and also came into the Mitt with anything significant. Wild times my friends!

 

Gonna be some krazy blowing and drifting out there:

 

Blizzard Warning

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

217 AM MST Thu Nov 28 2019

 

...Significant post Thanksgiving winter storm late Friday through

Saturday...

 

.A vigorous storm system will move from the central Rockies into

the central plains Friday into Saturday. The storm will bring

large amounts of moisture and very strong winds. A wintry mix of

may occur Friday before changing over to all snow Friday night

and early Saturday. Strong winds, with gusts of 50 to 65 mph, will

develop across northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota

Saturday, resulting in widespread blizzard conditions. Snowfall

amounts around a foot are possible along and north of Interstate

90, with up to two feet possible in the northern Black Hills.

 

Travel could become impossible late Friday night through Saturday

night. Even though the snow will end Saturday night, snow packed

and icy roads will still be found across the area on Sunday.

Persons planning travel over the weekend should consider alternate

plans.

Nice!

[Niko]

NOAA:

There is some uncertainty in
regards to lower level thermal profiles during the early Sunday
morning hours especially north of I-69, thus dictating the
precipitation type and related amounts. There may be a period of
light freezing and/or snowfall across the Thumb where surface air
temperatures may fall below freezing allowing for some accumulation
potential. There is a fair amount of model spread during this time,
but impacts look minimal at this point. Temperatures warm up above
freezing throughout Sunday morning and into the 40s by the afternoon
with rain as the p-type for most of southeast Michigan for the day
period.

[Niko]

[DSM WeatherNut]

Starting to get some frozen precip here in Des Moines. 

[jaster220]

NOAA:

There is some uncertainty in

regards to lower level thermal profiles during the early Sunday

morning hours especially north of I-69, thus dictating the

precipitation type and related amounts. There may be a period of

light freezing and/or snowfall across the Thumb where surface air

temperatures may fall below freezing allowing for some accumulation

potential. There is a fair amount of model spread during this time,

but impacts look minimal at this point. Temperatures warm up above

freezing throughout Sunday morning and into the 40s by the afternoon

with rain as the p-type for most of southeast Michigan for the day

period.

 

Wow, that's disappointing. I thought things would trend colder/cold enough for at least portions of SEMI to get some snow action. 

[Niko]

Wow, that's disappointing. I thought things would trend colder/cold enough for at least portions of SEMI to get some snow action. 

Who knows amigo....maybe models will change their minds tomorrow, but for now, its looking like an rainevent. Problem is, there isn't any cold air around.

[jaster220]

A batch of SLR snow maps to Sunday afternoon for comparison (12z/18z as available today):

 

Euro:

 

 

GEM:

 

 

GFS:

 

 

ICON:

 

 

NAM:

 

[jaster220]

Models are leaning towards NEMI scoring best with this one. Only the GEM & NAM really put significant snows further south in the Mitt. They must be running a tick or two colder aloft, as well as further south with the SLP, avoiding the dry slot all the other models show. Oh well, won't be an epic deal for NWMI but it will be nice to see whatever does come down. 

[Money]

NAM coming in farther south and a little bit colder...

[St Paul Storm]

A batch of SLR snow maps to Sunday afternoon for comparison (12z/18z as available today):

 

Euro:

 

20191124 12z EuroHR_snowfall_h078.png

 

GEM:

 

20191128 12zGEM SLR Snowfall h78.png

 

GFS:

 

20191128 12z GFS h78 SLR Snowfall.png

 

ICON:

 

20191128 18z ICON h78.png

 

NAM:

 

20191128 18z nam h78 snowfall SLR.png

Soooo....anywhere from 2” to 16” here. That’s one heck of a tough forecast.

[St Paul Storm]

Almost all 18z GEFS members disagree with the GFS. That’s special. GEFS mean near 12” here while the GFS has 5”.

[Niko]

A batch of SLR snow maps to Sunday afternoon for comparison (12z/18z as available today):

 

Euro:

 

20191124 12z EuroHR_snowfall_h078.png

 

GEM:

 

20191128 12zGEM SLR Snowfall h78.png

 

GFS:

 

20191128 12z GFS h78 SLR Snowfall.png

 

ICON:

 

20191128 18z ICON h78.png

 

NAM:

 

20191128 18z nam h78 snowfall SLR.png

Nam gives me near 5"

 

GEM not bad either...3-4"

 

None of the offices are calling for any snow here.

[jaster220]

Almost all 18z GEFS members disagree with the GFS. That’s special. GEFS mean near 12” here while the GFS has 5”.

 

Yeah, GEFS looked solid, just forgot to post that one. GFS/ICON seem to be the warm solutions, with most others much more favorable for yby over to the Mitt. 

 

0z NAM:

 

SLR

 

 

Kuchera

 

[jaster220]

Nam gives me near 5"

 

GEM not bad either...3-4"

 

None of the offices are calling for any snow here.

 

You could deal with a "surprise", right? NOBODY was calling for 12" a few days prior to Vet's Day, were they??   (k, different scenario but makes my point) 

 

Meanwhile, reading MQT's AFD, they're like "looks like your routine 6-10 event to keep your blower from getting bored" 

[jaster220]

Per Izzi @ LOT, Tom's magnet may just work a charm Sunday..

 

By Sunday, guidance has the mid-upper level low moving across

northern IL with 500mb low progged to deepen to sub-530dm, which
is in the 95-99th percentile for 500mb heights this time of year.
Very cold air aloft with this upper low (nearly -30C at 500mb)
will help contribute to steep low and mid level lapse rates
Sunday. While model guidance is not particularly aggressive with
QPF values Sunday, the steep lapse rates/weak stability does have
me concerned that there could be some potentially moderate to
heavy convective snow showers around somewhere in the region. At
this distance, its hard to pin down where small scale shortwaves
will be pivoting around this cyclone, so hard to see who stands
the greatest risk of seeing some potential for accumulating snow.
At this point it could be anywhere from central or southern WI
down to maybe central IL. Our area looks to certainly be well
within this envelope, so we will need to keep an eye on Sunday.
While forecast guidance surface temps appear marginal for snow
Sunday, the convective nature of the precip would probably allow
for precip to flip to all snow, especially with some slight
evaporative cooling in the boundary layer. The convective nature
of precip raises the possibility for perhaps even some graupel
with any stronger convective cells.

Could be some snow showers, maybe enough to accumulate a bit, into
Sunday night and perhaps Monday morning on the backside of this
upper low. Thermally, it could be cold enough for some lake
enhancement of the snow showers into northwest Indiana.

 

[St Paul Storm]

I see the 0z GFS is trending a bit south with the heaviest snows here. 5.5” here and over 17” three counties to the north.

[jaster220]

Now getting within it's range, the NAM GFS is showing much better snows across NMI

 

[Niko]

You could deal with a "surprise", right? NOBODY was calling for 12" a few days prior to Vet's Day, were they??   (k, different scenario but makes my point) 

 

Meanwhile, reading MQT's AFD, they're like "looks like your routine 6-10 event to keep your blower from getting bored" 

You are right about that. Yes. Who knows...maybe another 12" for mby again

[jaster220]

Yuck! Suddenly GEM goes "iffy" with thermals and keeps NWMI a mixy mess early Sunday when it had +SN before at that time stamp. SPS gets a little bit of sleet, but still does well. (each model showing it's weaknesses at various ranges I suppose)

 

[St Paul Storm]

0z GEM still insisting on over a foot for the metro. Forecasters nightmare scenario with this.

[jaster220]

Yuck! Suddenly GEM goes "iffy" with thermals and keeps NWMI a mixy mess early Sunday when it had +SN before at that time stamp. SPS gets a little bit of sleet, but still does well. (each model showing it's weaknesses at various ranges I suppose)

 

20191129 0z GEM h60.png

 

  Go figure. Still dishes out a solid snow hit across NMI. Can only guess then that 1 minute after that time stamp, the mix flipped to SNOW 

 

[Stormgeek]

Cmon, let's go Canada! All jokes aside this is indeed a nightmare for forecasters... Current range in the point is 4-12... Glad to see the NAM adjusting south throughout today's runs. Just gotta wait for the GFS to cave at this point. Current MSP thinking is that they will only issue 2 separate advisories for the metro as opposed to a winter storm warning. They are thinking too much rain will occur between rounds.

[Niko]

Yuck! Suddenly GEM goes "iffy" with thermals and keeps NWMI a mixy mess early Sunday when it had +SN before at that time stamp. SPS gets a little bit of sleet, but still does well. (each model showing it's weaknesses at various ranges I suppose)

 

20191129 0z GEM h60.png

[St Paul Storm]

RGEM came in a good deal south as well.

[Madtown]

Everybody do the south chachacha

[Stormgeek]

Euro looks to have dipped a touch south as well. 9.5 at 10:1 for MSP, not sure what Kuchera looks like given temps are going to likely be an issue.

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

03z SREF's...

 

 

[Tom]

Blizzard Warnings expanded into parts on N NE as another Beast of a storm is take aim across the northern Sub.  Boy, what I would do to be able to experience what Duluth, MN is about to endure....

 

 

 

Blizzard WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
326 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2019

...STRONG WINTER STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LEAVES SUNDAY...

.A slow-moving winter storm will bring heavy snow and high winds
to the region tonight through Sunday afternoon. If the forecast is
correct, this could be a top 10 two day snowfall event for the
region.

MNZ020-037-292130-
/O.UPG.KDLH.WS.A.0009.191130T0000Z-191201T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.BZ.W.0002.191130T1200Z-191201T1800Z/
Southern Lake-Carlton and South St. Louis-
Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Duluth
326 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
12 to 20 inches, except 16 to 24 inches for the higher terrain
of the North Shore. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
Visibilities will frequently drop below a quarter of a mile.

* WHERE...Southern Lake and Carlton and South St. Louis
Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac
Band.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
snow will significantly reduce visibilities.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions will largely be found
within 5 to 10 miles inland of Lake Superior.

[Tom]

Let's not forget about what is currently transpiring in the desert SW as the mountains of AZ are expecting to see a potential Top 5 Nov snowfall, especially across the Flagstaff region.  The Snowbowl Ski Resort is expecting to see FEET of snow over this holiday weekend.

 

 

 

 

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019


AZZ004-006-007-015-300700-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-191130T0700Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-
Western Mogollon Rim-
Including the cities of Jacob Lake, Fredonia,
Grand Canyon Village, Valle, and Flagstaff
308 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT ABOVE 4500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow occurring. Travel will be
very difficult to impossible. Tree branches could fall as well.
Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with localized
amounts up to 26 inches over the highest mountain peaks, are
expected.

[GDR]

Build the glacier up north!!!

[Stormgeek]

Latest NAM keeps basically everything north of the metro. I am having a hard time trying to work through its solution. Is that a giant dry slot that is causing the havoc? 850's appear to be fine most of the time. Just looks like QPF gets lowered this run.

Edit: After further thought it must be a dry slot, there is quite the sharp cutoff between the haves and have nots.