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December 2019 Observations & Discussion

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#1
clintbeed1993

Posted 27 November 2019 - 09:59 PM

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December has always been my favorite month for winter weather.  We've reached the 10 year anniversary of the infamous December of 2009. This is still the ultimate stretch of winter weather in my lifetime (born in 1993). I remember the incredible Christmas blizzard with drifts up to my waist in the street! We were buried through mid January. I attached the snowfall total map in Central Nebraska to show Gabel was the big winner with almost 16 inches near Shelby! This was truly a land hurricane. An absolutely incredible cyclone. A true display of mother nature's power. Storms like this are why i have such a deep love for weather.

 

What will 10 years later hold? Can't lie, I've been extra giddy thinking about that year and wondering if "this is the year" to match it. Probably not, but it's nice to dream and this early snowstorm didn't hurt ;) What are your memories of that heavenly month? Think of this as a tribute thread to the snow gods. Maybe they'll repay us kindly LOL. Feel free to discuss the similarities and differences in the overall pattern and atmosphere between then and now. That year was known for it's record blocking with extreme negative AO and NAO. Not really sure what to expect this year as trends look positive on both with pretty mild and quiet weather through the first week. What happens after?  DISCUSS!

 

 

https://www.weather..../blizzard_recap

Attached Files


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#2
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 November 2019 - 12:45 AM

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The biggie here in C.IA in DEC 09' was 8th to 9th when a majority of the 17.7" fell from 6th-9th. Been in IA since DEC 98' and it  was - IMO - the only true blizzard that has gotten into the burbs of DSM and even Downtown DSM. I worked the overnight shift and coming home the 9th was unlike anything I've ever experinced (here in IA,- including my time in MN , where the size of the Twin Cities really dampens true Blizzards) Main roads near the airport were one lane and when the vis dropped you just hoped like hell another car wasn't coming. My house looked like a someone sand blasted it with snow. Stores shelves were actually getting bare (unlike the craze that drives most to get bread and milk for cookie cutter storms- this was the real deal) as semis couldn't make deliveries for 3-4 days. 

 

It was a DEC I will never forget. 29" or so of snow for the month. And I'am with Clint1993- give me a cold/snowy DEC as it can back build the winter - or at least the chance of it- it's also my fav winter month.


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#3
GDR

Posted 28 November 2019 - 04:45 AM

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Gfs showing a monster at the end of run! What could go wrong?
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#4
Tom

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:40 AM

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Great opener Clintbeed!  It's always nice to hear some epic storm stories from the past that give you a jolt of excitement and something to look forward to.  I, to, enjoy December as my favorite month of met Winter, esp if its filled with snow and cold.  The past few Decembers haven't had that "feel" of a magical Christmas holiday season.  There were a couple years ('17 & '18) that had some wintry weather but it didn't last.  Dec '13 was probably one of the better years around here in recent memory, of course, if you go back to '09 that year shines bright as does '10 the farther east you were that had a consistent snow cover throughout the month.  We had a string of good to great Decembers in the late 2000's.

 

Odds are in favor that this December will be back loaded and that is something I'm counting on to see this month.  I'm fully expecting an active/cold mid & late month with an increased possibility of severe winter conditions.  IMO, it's more than likely, many of us will enjoy a holiday season with snow OTG for long periods.  

 

Since yesterday, interestingly, right after my post in the Nov thread, the 12z GEFS/OP came in and they showed the high lat blocking blowing up around the 10th.  In recent runs, the models are starting to see the cold coming back and I'm thrilled to see this evolution in the modeling.  Not to mention, but today's AO forecast is tanking right on schedule!

 

ao.sprd2.gif


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#5
Clinton

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:59 AM

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While I know the GFS at hr 312 will excite nobody it does support what Tom posted above.  A big shot of artic air and some blocking and I would bet a storm  will show up around the 10th or 11th.

gfs_T2m_us_53.png


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#6
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 November 2019 - 09:02 AM

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While I know the GFS at hr 312 will excite nobody it does support what Tom posted above. A big shot of artic air and some blocking and I would bet a storm will show up around the 10th or 11th.
gfs_T2m_us_53.png


That is my thoughts also Clinton
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#7
gabel23

Posted 28 November 2019 - 09:47 AM

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December has always been my favorite month for winter weather.  We've reached the 10 year anniversary of the infamous December of 2009. This is still the ultimate stretch of winter weather in my lifetime (born in 1993). I remember the incredible Christmas blizzard with drifts up to my waist in the street! We were buried through mid January. I attached the snowfall total map in Central Nebraska to show Gabel was the big winner with almost 16 inches near Shelby! This was truly a land hurricane. An absolutely incredible cyclone. A true display of mother nature's power. Storms like this are why i have such a deep love for weather.

 

What will 10 years later hold? Can't lie, I've been extra giddy thinking about that year and wondering if "this is the year" to match it. Probably not, but it's nice to dream and this early snowstorm didn't hurt ;) What are your memories of that heavenly month? Think of this as a tribute thread to the snow gods. Maybe they'll repay us kindly LOL. Feel free to discuss the similarities and differences in the overall pattern and atmosphere between then and now. That year was known for it's record blocking with extreme negative AO and NAO. Not really sure what to expect this year as trends look positive on both with pretty mild and quiet weather through the first week. What happens after?  DISCUSS!

 

 

https://www.weather..../blizzard_recap

Nice intro Clint!! You nailed it, that december was one I will NEVER forget. With the x-mas blizzard and the blizzard a couple weeks before to start december that goes down as the wildest I have ever been apart of. We went into new years that year with the greatest snow depth I will probably ever experience. We had a two foot snow depth with drifts that didn't melt until may! The other december that I was a part of was known for the cold but we also had 3 storms in December; that year was my junior year in high school 2000. Then the coldest snowiest december ever was the year I was born 1983. I swear to this day that's the reason I have a strong passion for winter! The high temp on the day I was born was -10 and we got a foot of snow. We had 8 consecutive days below zero. Hoping for our own unique December but I go into the month with just over 8" of snow for the year! Bring it on!


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#8
Tom

Posted 28 November 2019 - 01:25 PM

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The GEFS are growing stronger with the idea of a Cross Polar Flow pattern to take hold post 10th...Winter is coming back...

 

 

Attached Files

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#9
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 04:27 PM

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Wow guys! Awesome thread kick-off to MET winter with the historical angle and rememberings. Ofc, that '09 Christmas storm will remain a huge disappointment to me personally and locally. That SLP lined up "in the slot" to come NE towards the lower lakes only to have it take a hard left was "Grinchy" for mby. At least now, all these years later, I'm able to participate with some peeps who were on the receiving end of a massive holiday gift and feel the "vibe of awe" from your posts. Great stuff! I did get a nice hit with the 8-9th bliz via LES as that storm occluded over my way. That was actually a sweet surprise. I wasn't tuned into any forecasts once I saw that the track would be NW of here. Just figured it'd be another early season "miss" per climo. WRONG! When that occluded, it was in just the right location and still strong enough to pound the 94 corridor with our own mini-bliz. Kzoo hit 14", Battle Creek 12", and here in Marshall we pushed 9-10". A true surprise! Would love something like that later this month. Having seen measurable snow for Halloween, Vet's Day, and now at TGD weekend, I'm hoping to set a new record number of holidays seeing/having snow! Let's keep this snow train rolling, and like Tom said "run the table" with no dud months in between. Got my holiday lights fired-up this evening outside and me and my "drinking deer" are thirsty for snow!  :lol:


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#10
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2019 - 07:53 PM

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The GEFS are growing stronger with the idea of a Cross Polar Flow pattern to take hold post 10th...Winter is coming back...

 

Did you see my question posted in the other thread (Autumn/Winter)? Was hoping for your thoughts amigo. 



#11
Niko

Posted 28 November 2019 - 08:28 PM

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Lets see how December goes for SEMI. Let the fun begin.


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#12
Niko

Posted 29 November 2019 - 06:57 AM

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As of now, the first 10-15 days look to go to waste. One rain chance on the 10th w temps in the 40s. No cold air to be found imby. Hope it changes.



#13
MIKEKC

Posted 29 November 2019 - 01:12 PM

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Terry Swails is not happy with what the MJO, AO and EPO forecast for Dec.

WARM! He’s pretty good at seeing this from what I can tell over the years of reading his blog. He’s hoping for a change in the data. Latest GFS and EURO support his claims for the first 2 weeks of Dec.

I know nobody here wants to see a repeat of last years Dec. where pretty much a blow torch took hold of the lower 48
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#14
Niko

Posted 29 November 2019 - 05:09 PM

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Terry Swails is not happy with what the MJO, AO and EPO forecast for Dec.

WARM! He’s pretty good at seeing this from what I can tell over the years of reading his blog. He’s hoping for a change in the data. Latest GFS and EURO support his claims for the first 2 weeks of Dec.

I know nobody here wants to see a repeat of last years Dec. where pretty much a blow torch took hold of the lower 48

Yep, that was a frustrated December. Total snowfall was under an inch for myby. Crazy! This December aint looking all that good either, at least the first half. We will see how the other half goes.

 

That is why I don't like November snows, especially the early part of the month. Late November is ok, especially after Thanksgiving holiday.


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#15
Stacsh

Posted 29 November 2019 - 06:14 PM

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Another December to forget for SMI. Winter will come in February and last til May. Rinse repeat. This pattern sucks.
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#16
Niko

Posted 29 November 2019 - 08:21 PM

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Another December to forget for SMI. Winter will come in February and last til May. Rinse repeat. This pattern sucks.

s**t.gif.358b458605f680a0e6e0d99f5823545



#17
GDR

Posted 30 November 2019 - 05:07 AM

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Attached File  280EB84D-3B7C-4E0E-98F4-C074AE7B37FD.jpeg   64.11KB   11 downloads
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#18
dubuque473

Posted 30 November 2019 - 05:56 AM

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I will take the December warm up if I can get last years Jan-March again.


Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#19
Clinton

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:19 AM

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The GEFS are growing stronger with the idea of a Cross Polar Flow pattern to take hold post 10th...Winter is coming back...

Tom, after spending the morning looking back at the month of Oct I still believe we are in a 47-49 day cycle.  Which would indicate that we would have a central plains storm around the 8-10th followed up by the gulf storm that moved up the Ohio Valley several days after.  Yesterdays GFS had a storm on the 9th in the middle of the country.  I just wanted to bounce this off of you and see if it lined up with your thoughts.



#20
westMJim

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:40 AM

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In today's Bill Steffen’s blog (A Grand Rapids TV meteorologist) he states that about 40% of the US had snow on the ground as of Friday. He says that this is the most snow of the ground (in area coverage) at the end of November in the last 17 years. With just under 36% in 2015 is in 2nd place. Now here comes the issue with anyone who thinks that just by having a large area of snow cover will lead to a cold and snowy winter some sad news. December 2015 was the warmest December on record here at Grand Rapids and that December there was only 2.5” of snow fall for the 4th lowest December total at GR. And the total snow fall for that winter here at Grand Rapids was just 61.1” so much for snow on the ground in late November always leading to a cold and snowy winter season.


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#21
MIKEKC

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:25 AM

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Tom, after spending the morning looking back at the month of Oct I still believe we are in a 47-49 day cycle. Which would indicate that we would have a central plains storm around the 8-10th followed up by the gulf storm that moved up the Ohio Valley several days after. Yesterdays GFS had a storm on the 9th in the middle of the country. I just wanted to bounce this off of you and see if it lined up with your thoughts.



#22
MIKEKC

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:28 AM

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Gary says we’re still in the first cycle and I think he is correct. There wasn’t a storm in California for 45 days, now, the last 10 days there has been massive storms there.
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#23
Tom

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:57 AM

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Tom, after spending the morning looking back at the month of Oct I still believe we are in a 47-49 day cycle.  Which would indicate that we would have a central plains storm around the 8-10th followed up by the gulf storm that moved up the Ohio Valley several days after.  Yesterdays GFS had a storm on the 9th in the middle of the country.  I just wanted to bounce this off of you and see if it lined up with your thoughts.

The part of the pattern in October that I'm looking for is the development of the SW ridge.  This was a dominant pattern in October and the reason it was so darn dry.  There are signs that this begins developing around the Day 9-10 period, but then that would suggest the LRC would be over 60+ days which I have never witnessed before.  Gary says the LRC is usually between 40-60 days...is this one of those odd years where its longer???  I'm not quite sure just yet and would like to see if the models are right about this ridge in the SW to develop and stick around for a little while.


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#24
Tom

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:59 AM

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I will also like to mention that there have been very similar storms and tracks over the past 2 months and lets not forget that these systems/patterns could very well be the "harmonic rythyms" in the LRC.  Shorter mini cycles within the larger scale cycle.


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#25
Clinton

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:01 AM

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The part of the pattern in October that I'm looking for is the development of the SW ridge.  This was a dominant pattern in October and the reason it was so darn dry.  There are signs that this begins developing around the Day 9-10 period, but then that would suggest the LRC would be over 60+ days which I have never witnessed before.  Gary says the LRC is usually between 40-60 days...is this one of those odd years where its longer???  I'm not quite sure just yet and would like to see if the models are right about this ridge in the SW to develop and stick around for a little while.

Thanks for your insights.  I can only remember 1 year that the cycle length was 60 days.  This would be the longest I can remember.


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#26
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:18 AM

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My extended for December shows rain towards mid December w 40s for high...yikes!!!  :blink:



#27
MIKEKC

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:26 AM

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It feels like a spring morning in KC. We finally had some good rains last night, the most rain in 55 days. Temps are going to shoot into the mid 60’s today.

I always say, if there isn’t snow on the ground it might as well be nice out.
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#28
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:27 AM

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It feels like a spring morning in KC. We finally had some good rains last night, the most rain in 55 days. Temps are going to shoot into the mid 60’s today.

I always say, if there isn’t snow on the ground it might as well be nice out.

I agree on that. I hate cold and dry.


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#29
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:37 AM

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It may not mean much, but in regards to the LRC, I'll add to the vote of a 60+, possibly even a 65-75 day cycle. Just my $.02 worth....

#30
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:49 AM

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Another December to forget for SMI. Winter will come in February and last til May. Rinse repeat. This pattern sucks.


Things certainly appear to be heading for a train wreck, that's for sure! Suddenly, the Western trough that wasn't part of this year's outlook is back with a vengeance! Gotta love it!

#31
westMJim

Posted 30 November 2019 - 09:04 AM

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With December starting tomorrow here are some top ten December’s at Grand Rapids Michigan for Temperatures and snow fall.

 The average for December is 29.2°

The coldest
1. 17.1° 1989
2. 19.0° 2000
3. 19.0° 1976
4. 19.2° 1983
5. 20.5° 1958
6. 21.1° 1917
7. 21.3° 1963
8. 21.4° 1919
9. 22.3° 1985
10. 22.6° 1946
The warmest Decembers
1. 39.1 2015
2. 36.6 1923
3. 36.2 1982
4. 35.8 1931
5. 35.1 2012
6. 35.1 2006
7. 35.1 1913
8. 35.0 2011
9. 34.4 1918
10. 34.3 1941
Snow the top ten snowiest Decembers. .21.9” is average
1. 59.2” 2000
2. 54.6” 2008
3. 53.9” 2001
4. 51.3” 1951
5. 37.0” 2016
6. 35.5” 2009
7. 34.8” 1983
8. 34.7” 2013
9. 33.7” 1970
10. 32.9” 2017
Least snow fall
1. 1.0” 2014
2. 2.3” 1913
3. 2.3” 1912
4. 2.5” 2015
5. 2.6” 1979
6. 3.2” 2018
7. 3.7” 1971
8. 3.8” 1906
9. 4.2” 1943
10. 4.5” 2011


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#32
Stormhunter87

Posted 30 November 2019 - 11:04 AM

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Cpc turning the ovens on. Hopefully that doesn't last.

#33
GDR

Posted 30 November 2019 - 11:53 AM

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Yeah can someone please turn off the December oven!!
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#34
Sparky

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:12 PM

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Like I’ve said before, any weather pattern usually doesn’t last too long except in the rare instances where it lasts all season or longer. When we had all that cold and snow so early I figured that’s not to good if you want a cold December. But it will likely get cold again. Nature tends to balance things out over time. It’s amazing how yearly average temperatures don’t vary much at all from yr to yr most times. I remember October 2009 was very cool and wet, then November torched I think. Guess I should/could check to make sure, since I kept a daily diary of wx conditions etc for 30 years already, at the end of this year! Where has time gone?
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#35
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:37 PM

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UGH...repeat of December 2018 coming.........first half looks to be shaping up like that.


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#36
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:38 PM

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Like I’ve said before, any weather pattern usually doesn’t last too long except in the rare instances where it lasts all season or longer. When we had all that cold and snow so early I figured that’s not to good if you want a cold December. But it will likely get cold again. Nature tends to balance things out over time. It’s amazing how yearly average temperatures don’t vary much at all from yr to yr most times. I remember October 2009 was very cool and wet, then November torched I think. Guess I should/could check to make sure, since I kept a daily diary of wx conditions etc for 30 years already, at the end of this year! Where has time gone?

I know..its crazy!


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#37
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:46 PM

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With December starting tomorrow here are some top ten December’s at Grand Rapids Michigan for Temperatures and snow fall.
The average for December is 29.2°
The coldest
1. 17.1° 1989
2. 19.0° 2000
3. 19.0° 1976
4. 19.2° 1983
5. 20.5° 1958
6. 21.1° 1917
7. 21.3° 1963
8. 21.4° 1919
9. 22.3° 1985
10. 22.6° 1946
The warmest Decembers
1. 39.1 2015
2. 36.6 1923
3. 36.2 1983
4. 35.8 1931
5. 35.1 2012
6. 35.1 2006
7. 35.1 1913
8. 35.0 2011
9. 34.4 1918
10. 34.3 1941
Snow the top ten snowiest Decembers. .21.9” is average
1. 59.2” 2000
2. 54.6” 2008
3. 53.9” 2001
4. 51.3” 1951
5. 37.0” 2016
6. 35.5” 2009
7. 34.8” 1983
8. 34.7” 2013
9. 33.7” 1970
10. 32.9” 2017
Least snow fall
1. 1.0” 2014
2. 2.3” 1913
3. 2.3” 1912
4. 2.5” 2015
5. 2.6” 1979
6. 3.2” 2018
7. 3.7” 1971
8. 3.8” 1906
9. 4.2” 1943
10. 4.5” 2011

On a roll with crap Decembers (3 of last 5). Would be crazy if we added a 4th! Also, amazing how Dec 1983 was both coldest and hottest ranked??
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#38
Mi_Matthew

Posted 30 November 2019 - 03:58 PM

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Not sure if it is related to any sort of cyclical pattern but it is interesting to note a "twin" pair of storms forecast 4 days apart in the Lakes/OHV beginning December 9th (specifically by the 18z GFS). Very much like the twin storms of this week across the north. Pattern change? More long range teasing?

#39
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 04:17 PM

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Not sure if it is related to any sort of cyclical pattern but it is interesting to note a "twin" pair of storms forecast 4 days apart in the Lakes/OHV beginning December 9th (specifically by the 18z GFS). Very much like the twin storms of this week across the north. Pattern change? More long range teasing?


The pair predicted via the BSR!

#40
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 05:01 PM

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Not sure if it is related to any sort of cyclical pattern but it is interesting to note a "twin" pair of storms forecast 4 days apart in the Lakes/OHV beginning December 9th (specifically by the 18z GFS). Very much like the twin storms of this week across the north. Pattern change? More long range teasing?

 

The pair predicted via the BSR!

Equals Rain and temps in the 40s. Hope it changes.


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#41
Sparky

Posted 30 November 2019 - 05:40 PM

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On a roll with crap Decembers (3 of last 5). Would be crazy if we added a 4th! Also, amazing how Dec 1983 was both coldest and hottest ranked??

How could that be possible?! That must be a mistake.

Edit: Was referring to the last sentence.
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#42
snowstorm83

Posted 30 November 2019 - 05:43 PM

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Very cute  <_<


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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 2.4" (so far)  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#43
gabel23

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:02 PM

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Like I’ve said before, any weather pattern usually doesn’t last too long except in the rare instances where it lasts all season or longer. When we had all that cold and snow so early I figured that’s not to good if you want a cold December. But it will likely get cold again. Nature tends to balance things out over time. It’s amazing how yearly average temperatures don’t vary much at all from yr to yr most times. I remember October 2009 was very cool and wet, then November torched I think. Guess I should/could check to make sure, since I kept a daily diary of wx conditions etc for 30 years already, at the end of this year! Where has time gone?


You are completely right, October 2009 was top five coldest for many; November was then top 5 warmest to follow! December 2009 then goes down as a historic month for many on this board.
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#44
westMJim

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:33 PM

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On a roll with crap Decembers (3 of last 5). Would be crazy if we added a 4th! Also, amazing how Dec 1983 was both coldest and hottest ranked??

Wow, nice catch. yes I made a mistake on the year for the 3rd warmest December. The mean of 36.2° is correct but the year is 1982 and not 1983.  That is one of the issues of getting old and needing readers to read. Thanks for seeing that.  


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#45
westMJim

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:35 PM

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Wow, nice catch. yes I made a mistake on the year for the 3rd warmest December. The mean of 36.2° is correct but the year is 1982 and not 1983.  That is one of the issues of getting old and needing readers to read. Thanks for seeing that.  

 

On a roll with crap Decembers (3 of last 5). Would be crazy if we added a 4th! Also, amazing how Dec 1983 was both coldest and hottest ranked??

I changed it once again thanks.


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#46
Clinton

Posted 01 December 2019 - 04:54 AM

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Some exciting stuff on last night Euro runs.  The control has a monster storm showing up on the 13th and some nice cold moving in as well.  Looks like after this first week of tranquil weather to open Dec, winter will come roaring back. 63 or 64 day cycle?

1576389600-75icYDPrG9k.png

1576454400-wH3PU55DhXI.png


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#47
Tom

Posted 01 December 2019 - 04:57 AM

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Welcome to the official start of met Winter!  It's a very foggy, dreary & soggy morning here and not the winter-like feel you would expect to see this time of year.  While those up north continue to enjoy the benefits of Ol' Man Winter, those of us farther south are taking a break for the time being.  How long will this break last???  Throughout this morning, I've been studying and analyzing the pattern that has set up since early October and the data that has been coming in overnight.  Over the past few days, the models have been rather volatile as I was expecting to see which is common during a Strat Warming that continues today.  I may be stubborn holding onto the idea that the pattern should flip to more sustained cold and storminess by mid month.  Call me crazy or not but I got this real gut feeling we will prob see one of the biggest model busts this seasons in the Week 2-4 period.  It's pretty obvious I'm going against most of the LR models that suggest a torch throughout the month....is this a good idea on my part....or is a big Bust forthcoming???  Time will tell very soon.  I'm sure some of you already have already thrown in the towel for this month...but is that a good idea???

 

 

Let me show you what I'm seeing and why I'm convinced my logic may have some reasoning behind it.  First off, the models have been struggling trying to figure out the pattern in the near term let alone in the longer range.  For example, the 00z Euro has trended decidedly colder later next week and into early the following week across the Upper MW/GL's region as the model is starting to see a couple decent shots of cold.  This is going to be a volatile period over the opening 10 days or so across the northern half of our Sub before I expect to see the Long Term Long Wave Trough re-establish itself across the central CONUS by mid month.

 

After studying the LRC and comparing it with the model runs out into the next 1-2 weeks, I think I'm starting to see some evidence that the cycle length may in fact be centered around 48-49 days.  The powerful storm we are now experiencing is a big clue along with several other examples the models are showing in the extended. 

 

For example, back on Oct 19th -21st, Tropical Storm Nestor formed in the NE GOM and hit NW FL which tracked through GA and the Carolina's then out to sea.  The 00z Euro is seeing this part of the pattern later next week/weekend in the NE GOM.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

 

 

 

Following this part of the pattern, we saw a strong clipper between Oct 14th-16th that tracked across N MN/N WI that ushered in a strong CF along with strong winds.  This time, however, we are lacking the -NAO we saw in mid Oct (see below)...thus, the clipper is weaker and farther N but it is producing a similar outcome, that being a brief cold shot out of Canada.  Hense, the reasoning behind the volatility I'm expecting to see during the opening week or so of December.  Once this part of the pattern of the LRC arrives in late January I fully expect a major arctic outbreak.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

Those that have snow OTG are going to get chilly.....

 

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

 

Furthermore, the storm on my calendar between (12/5-12/8) is showing up but a day later than my original call.  Nonetheless, this looks to be directly related to the system that tracked through SD/NE back on Oct 19th/20th and also produced a major severe wx outbreak across E OK/NE TX/AR/MO.  All the models are beginning to see this storm in the Day 8-10 range followed by,  which I believe, will be a strong push of arctic air.  Then, this is when things get very interesting and we start seeing deep low's forming across the central/southern Plains heading towards mid month and beyond. 

 

Overall, I think I got this years LRC figured out and I hope I'm right about it bc I would hate to lead anyone down the wrong path.  Another clue I'm seeing that this pattern will be cycling is the development of the SW ridge by 12/9 or so which the GEFS have been suggesting for a number of days now.

 

 

Dec 9th...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_36.png

 

 

 

When this pattern arrives by 12/13 - 12/15, look out....

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_51.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_57.png


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#48
Tom

Posted 01 December 2019 - 05:00 AM

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Some exciting stuff on last night Euro runs.  The control has a monster storm showing up on the 13th and some nice cold moving in as well.  Looks like after this first week of tranquil weather to open Dec, winter will come roaring back. 63 or 64 day cycle?

1576389600-75icYDPrG9k.png

1576454400-wH3PU55DhXI.png

 

Wow, it's like the Universe just spoke to the both of us.... ;) ...I literally just finished a long post that took me about 10-20 min to put together and it mirrored what you just showed us.  Ya buddy, I think we are heading in the right direction once we get past Dec 10th.


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#49
Clinton

Posted 01 December 2019 - 05:18 AM

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Wow, it's like the Universe just spoke to the both of us.... ;) ...I literally just finished a long post that took me about 10-20 min to put together and it mirrored what you just showed us.  Ya buddy, I think we are heading in the right direction once we get past Dec 10th.

LOL! Yesterday I was convinced the cycle length was 48 to 49 days, until the EC came out last night.  When I look at the storm the Control is modeling for the 9th and then the storm it has 5 days later on the 14th, I thought wow there it is.  I am open to the cycle length being 63 or 64 days long, which would be one of the longest I can remember.  Either way things look like winter for at least the second half of the month.


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#50
Tom

Posted 01 December 2019 - 05:27 AM

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LOL! Yesterday I was convinced the cycle length was 48 to 49 days, until the EC came out last night.  When I look at the storm the Control is modeling for the 9th and then the storm it has 5 days later on the 14th, I thought wow there it is.  I am open to the cycle length being 63 or 64 days long, which would be one of the longest I can remember.  Either way things look like winter for at least the second half of the month.

It could very well be we were seeing harmonic rhythms within the LRC.  Let's see how this week shakes out and where things line up in the near term and by the storm target dates of 12/13 - 12/15.  Either way, we both had the right idea....interesting developments and thanks for posting the Euro maps. 


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