Welcome to the official start of met Winter! It's a very foggy, dreary & soggy morning here and not the winter-like feel you would expect to see this time of year. While those up north continue to enjoy the benefits of Ol' Man Winter, those of us farther south are taking a break for the time being. How long will this break last??? Throughout this morning, I've been studying and analyzing the pattern that has set up since early October and the data that has been coming in overnight. Over the past few days, the models have been rather volatile as I was expecting to see which is common during a Strat Warming that continues today. I may be stubborn holding onto the idea that the pattern should flip to more sustained cold and storminess by mid month. Call me crazy or not but I got this real gut feeling we will prob see one of the biggest model busts this seasons in the Week 2-4 period. It's pretty obvious I'm going against most of the LR models that suggest a torch throughout the month....is this a good idea on my part....or is a big Bust forthcoming??? Time will tell very soon. I'm sure some of you already have already thrown in the towel for this month...but is that a good idea???
Let me show you what I'm seeing and why I'm convinced my logic may have some reasoning behind it. First off, the models have been struggling trying to figure out the pattern in the near term let alone in the longer range. For example, the 00z Euro has trended decidedly colder later next week and into early the following week across the Upper MW/GL's region as the model is starting to see a couple decent shots of cold. This is going to be a volatile period over the opening 10 days or so across the northern half of our Sub before I expect to see the Long Term Long Wave Trough re-establish itself across the central CONUS by mid month.
After studying the LRC and comparing it with the model runs out into the next 1-2 weeks, I think I'm starting to see some evidence that the cycle length may in fact be centered around 48-49 days. The powerful storm we are now experiencing is a big clue along with several other examples the models are showing in the extended.
For example, back on Oct 19th -21st, Tropical Storm Nestor formed in the NE GOM and hit NW FL which tracked through GA and the Carolina's then out to sea. The 00z Euro is seeing this part of the pattern later next week/weekend in the NE GOM.
Following this part of the pattern, we saw a strong clipper between Oct 14th-16th that tracked across N MN/N WI that ushered in a strong CF along with strong winds. This time, however, we are lacking the -NAO we saw in mid Oct (see below)...thus, the clipper is weaker and farther N but it is producing a similar outcome, that being a brief cold shot out of Canada. Hense, the reasoning behind the volatility I'm expecting to see during the opening week or so of December. Once this part of the pattern of the LRC arrives in late January I fully expect a major arctic outbreak.
Those that have snow OTG are going to get chilly.....
Furthermore, the storm on my calendar between (12/5-12/8) is showing up but a day later than my original call. Nonetheless, this looks to be directly related to the system that tracked through SD/NE back on Oct 19th/20th and also produced a major severe wx outbreak across E OK/NE TX/AR/MO. All the models are beginning to see this storm in the Day 8-10 range followed by, which I believe, will be a strong push of arctic air. Then, this is when things get very interesting and we start seeing deep low's forming across the central/southern Plains heading towards mid month and beyond.
Overall, I think I got this years LRC figured out and I hope I'm right about it bc I would hate to lead anyone down the wrong path. Another clue I'm seeing that this pattern will be cycling is the development of the SW ridge by 12/9 or so which the GEFS have been suggesting for a number of days now.
When this pattern arrives by 12/13 - 12/15, look out....