December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[OmahaSnowFan]

It really sucks as I much prefer front loaded winters to back loaded ones, and that 6" stat is pitiful. 

Yeah, give me snow in December- February, but by March 1st I'm ready for spring. 

[Grizzcoat]

It's getting to the point that DEC in IA and other states on the longitude of IA don't see real winter until later. I agree- give me snow/cold when the days are still short- once into late JAN/FEB the cold/snow is basically fighting itself against incoming solar.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro 10-day snowfall...... pitiful for many.

 

[james1976]

My highest snowfall so far this season is just 1.8"

[BMT]

Speaking specifically to the Iowa peeps here.  Everyone just needs to calm down.  Last year was a hell of a winter and we pretty much didn't see a flake until January.  oh yeah... we also took a run at the all time snow record in Oct this year too.  We will get some more snow.  

[Clinton]

Not much change on the EPS mean for next weeks storm

[james1976]

A random WWA for 3 counties in NW Kansas lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

What dates are supposed to match up with the GOM low system in the LRC? Is that the system for beginning of next week?

[Tom]

What dates are supposed to match up with the GOM low system in the LRC? Is that the system for beginning of next week?

Oct 25th-27th...it seems to me it’s lining up with the 13th-14th system coming out of the GOM.

[hlcater]

HRRR came in almost twice as strong with the snow tonight. Seems reasonable that CR/IC might be able to squeak out a quick inch.

[BMT]

HRRR came in almost twice as strong with the snow tonight. Seems reasonable that CR/IC might be able to squeak out a quick inch.

 

Trends with most of the short term models have been good.  Fingers crossed!

[jaster220]

The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now...

 

Had 27.6" Dec of 2017

[Niko]

Odd run at the end of the EURO.  Not buying the EC storm.  I think the GFS is on to something.  Darn it, WILL NOT GET SUCKED IN....

[Niko]

Attm, 27F under cloudy skies. Received a dusting of snow.

[james1976]

HRRR came in almost twice as strong with the snow tonight. Seems reasonable that CR/IC might be able to squeak out a quick inch.

I'd like to see that a bit more north

[Niko]

Very quiet pattern in my extended forecast. ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Hawkeye]

I wish tomorrow morning's little snow event would slow up by a couple hours so I could see it.  Models generally show it falling in the 4-7am period.

[james1976]

Actually wouldn't surprise me if it came in faster than what models show. Common with these NW flow waves. They also have a tendency to over perform.

[Niko]

 

[james1976]

 

I'm heading back to North Carolina if that verifies lol

[CentralNebWeather]

 

My gosh.  With the GFS track record, this will all be gone on tonight's run.

[Stormhunter87]

 

This would be crazy to see unfold if it did happen. Pretty sure all of Texas would freak out.

[hlcater]

This would be crazy to see unfold if it did happen. Pretty sure all of Texas would freak out.

The precious in the south is all IP/ZR, not snow unfortunately

[jaster220]

The precip in the south is all IP/ZR, not snow unfortunately fortunately for my sanity's sake

 

Fixed! 

[Thunder98]

This has to be the strangest 6 to 10 day temp outlook map I have ever seen.

 

 

 

 

[Beltrami Island]

To add to Thunder98's map.  From todays CPC 6-10 day forecast discussion:

 

"FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Much below average, 1 out of 5,
with good agreement on the 500-hPa pattern offset by predicted low amplitude
circulation anomalies and a transitioning circulation pattern. "

 

Good luck to all model grasping right now.  The only thing that is predictable right now is unpredictability.   

[Thunder98]

This map is like a throwback to 2012.

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm somewhere between that NOAA map and that GFS map above.

 

The GFS shouldn't mock me like that.

[bud2380]

DVN saying active pattern and with a pattern change will come model volatility.  

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

The overall hemispheric pattern supports a much more active weather
pattern across the Midwest into the foreseeable future.
Additionally, the hemispheric wave pattern will be in a state of
change which will result in lower than normal predictability and
continuity of the models.

[bud2380]

18z GFS just lock this in.  Be right for once, ha ha.  

 

[james1976]

[james1976]

@bud I know its minor but what's the 18z showing for accumulations tonight?

[gimmesnow]

18z GFS just lock this in.  Be right for once, ha ha.  

 

 

 

God, I wish the GFS was remotely accurate right now. Snowmobile trails down here are all marked and ready. And 6 inches is enough to open up the trails.

[bud2380]

GFS for tonight

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

The precious in the south is all IP/ZR, not snow unfortunately

Oh I know but wouldn't that be crazy.

[OKwx2k4]

18z shows the ghastly repeat of a December 2000 in my neighborhood. Theres big stuff ahead, just don't know what that is yet.

[james1976]

@bud...thanks! Although it's a minor disturbance tonight Des Moines has a pretty interesting write up on it:

 

A weak area of low pressure will move southeast

ahead of high pressure overnight with a band snow developing

mainly just north/northeast of the surface reflection. This band

will be mainly thermally driven with vigorous forcing within a

relatively deep dendritic layer of around 5 kft. Supersaturation

within this layer looks supportive of larger dendrites which would

further support the potential for a short period of intense

snowfall rates > 1 inch per hour. As of now, these higher snowfall

rates look to be aligned from near Fort Dodge to Marshalltown and

Montezuma with a band of snowfall of 1 to 2 inches possible. Much

of this snow would fall between midnight and 6 am across the area

with the more intense rates lasting an hour or less. Again, the

greatest threat will be the snow accumulating quickly on roadways.

While the wind is not expected to be a factor, the fluffy nature

of the snow with snow ratios near 20:1 would be supportive of snow

fog created by vehicles lofting the snow and further reducing

visibilities. No headlines at this time but will continue to

monitor and adjust the forecast as needed.

[Stormhunter87]

And now wpc ain't buying it for Omaha. Sigh

[CentralNebWeather]

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is consistently laying down the best snow (if you can call 1-2" "best") late tonight from Marshalltown through Iowa City.