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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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Naturally models would put me in the jackpot zone on a 1” event. LOL

 

Yeah, we seem to do well with nickel & dimers.  I'd rather give up a few of these to get bulls-eyed by a 16" monster once in my life.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So what I'm gathering from model watching and keeping tabs on the forum is that at some point in the next 2 weeks, any given location could see anything. Everyone is in the game until they're not. I kinda enjoy this volatility. It's going to be a bumpy ride 'till the pattern settles on something.

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So what I'm gathering from model watching and keeping tabs on the forum is that at some point in the next 2 weeks, any given location could see anything. Everyone is in the game until they're not. I kinda enjoy this volatility. It's going to be a bumpy ride 'till the pattern settles on something.

 

Me too, although I prefer the word unpredictability. 

 

GRR's comments:

 

The deterministic ECMWF does not have a system moving through our

area next week Tuesday, but the GFS certainly does. The GFS has a

996mb low moving through northern Ohio on Tuesday which would give

our area a swath of snow. The spread in the European ensembles is

quite scattered however, so the jury is still out on this system.

Low placement ranges from Indiana to well off the east coast.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Good question. I haven’t seen him in here in awhile

 

I think he popped in with a comment just prior to the Halloween storm iirc

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Where’s Omaha Craig??

I can't imagine Craig missing a storm with you guys. Surely, he'll show.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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APX mentioning a potential cold wave post-18th

 

Milder air looks like it will hang on through much of Saturday with

more cold air dumping into the region Saturday night into early next
week. Extended models are then trying to drop a brutally cold chuck
of air into the region just beyond the scope of this forecast
(middle and end of next week).
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DMX has this for me tonight:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
407 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-112215-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
407 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A band of snow is expected across portions of central and
northern Iowa tonight. A brief period of moderate to heavy snow
may occur with a quick 1 to 2 inch accumulation after midnight.
This would lead to a quick deterioration in road conditions.

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I'm heading back to North Carolina if that verifies lol

I wish, but its not :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My gosh.  With the GFS track record, this will all be gone on tonight's run.

Most likely.....but then again, GFS does sometimes provide surprises. So, who knows.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

The weekend outlook continues to feature a powerful upper level jet
from the Pacific initially forcing zonal flow across U.S. by Friday
which quickly buckles by Saturday. Extended models offer loosely
similar solutions of broad low pressure over the Ohio valley with
relatively mild air over the Great Lakes. This system is subject to
further adjustments due to timing of upper level amplification
during late week but for now presents a chance of rain and snow
showers in our area Saturday into Sunday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So there has been lots of differences from the models regarding temps following next weeks storm.  As I look back on early Nov, temps in most areas ran average to below average with a few warmer than average days mixed in.  With that said I don't buy the GFS forcasted temps for late next week, way to cold.  The Euro is also way to warm.  We should have a major if not brutal shot of artic air arriving around the 29th with a storm in the middle of the country as well.  The push of artic air coming in on the 29th could be historic and may be the coldest air of the season.  I just wanted to take my shot on this and am no means any sort of expert lol.

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DVN update:

 

Light snow event
still looks on track for late tonight exiting 12z-15z Wed AM.
Will be a quick hitting system with period of lift only about
3-4 hrs or so at any one location, which will keep accumulations
on the light side and generally around 1 inch or less. Some of
the latest guidance supports the bulk of the accumulations through
the heart of the cwa, or in the area roughly bounded between
Independence to Mt Carroll on the north side and Fairfield to
Galesburg to the south. I do see the potential for a swath of
higher accums around 2 inches in corridor between Vinton, Cedar
Rapids, Iowa City and Grinnell where best overlap of strongest
lift and deepest saturation is shown
. Snow looks to be dry/
fluffy, but winds should be relatively light thereby limiting any
blowing or drifting concerns. That being said plan on some snow
covered and slick roads during the Wednesday morning commute where
the snow falls. 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So there has been lots of differences from the models regarding temps following next weeks storm.  As I look back on early Nov, temps in most areas ran average to below average with a few warmer than average days mixed in.  With that said I don't buy the GFS forcasted temps for late next week, way to cold.  The Euro is also way to warm.  We should have a major if not brutal shot of artic air arriving around the 29th with a storm in the middle of the country as well.  The push of artic air coming in on the 29th could be historic and may be the coldest air of the season.  I just wanted to take my shot on this and am no means any sort of expert lol.

 

I trust you bud!! Your intake is always appreciated on this forum. I'd rather ask you, Jaster, or a couple of others on here for my extended 7 to 10 day outlook, instead of looking at the clueless models and local TV forecasters.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I trust you bud!! Your intake is always appreciated on this forum. I'd rather ask you, Jaster, or a couple of others on here for my extended 7 to 10 day outlook, instead of looking at the clueless models and local TV forecasters.

Thanks for the kind words.  Looks like I may get a nice snow Sunday and Monday getting kinda stoked.

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Thanks for the kind words.  Looks like I may get a nice snow Sunday and Monday getting kinda stoked.

GFS likes your area....

 

Showing 6"+ for ya.... ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The ICON likes me to, just to much time left lol!

Yep..but,.that's what makes it fun though amigo, the anticipation that just roars inside of ya :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So there has been lots of differences from the models regarding temps following next weeks storm.  As I look back on early Nov, temps in most areas ran average to below average with a few warmer than average days mixed in.  With that said I don't buy the GFS forcasted temps for late next week, way to cold.  The Euro is also way to warm.  We should have a major if not brutal shot of artic air arriving around the 29th with a storm in the middle of the country as well.  The push of artic air coming in on the 29th could be historic and may be the coldest air of the season.  I just wanted to take my shot on this and am no means any sort of expert lol.

 

 

I have started noticing over the past couple days the individual op runs and ensembles are beginning to cool next week.  IMO, the models are starting to digest the blocking they have been advertising for the Week 1-2 period which is resulting in colder trends.  In fact, my grid has temps now in the 20's starting Sun into next week.  I'd imagine they continue to show the colder trends as we progress into next week.  We can thank the -AO/-NAO in tandem.  As for your late month arctic attack, it may end up being a memorable one esp if there is a glacier around.  B)

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Already -5F. Heading down to -13F tonight with a chill as low as -30F. This is legit stuff. Impressive for the 2nd week of December. I shoveled the driveway this evening around 5pm and I was a bit surprised at how cold I got.

 

1-2” of snow looks possible tomorrow night into Thursday. Building the glacier.

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I have started noticing over the past couple days the individual op runs and ensembles are beginning to cool next week.  IMO, the models are starting to digest the blocking they have been advertising for the Week 1-2 period which is resulting in colder trends.  In fact, my grid has temps now in the 20's starting Sun into next week.  I'd imagine they continue to show the colder trends as we progress into next week.  We can thank the -AO/-NAO in tandem.  As for your late month arctic attack, it may end up being a memorable one esp if there is a glacier around.  B)

If there is a large snow pack I think we will talk about it for many years.  Hopefully the blocking you have been showing will keep it around for awhile also.  I wanted to pick your brain about the storm in my area Sunday and Monday, how concerned should I be about that boy being kinda positively tilted?

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If there is a large snow pack I think we will talk about it for many years.  Hopefully the blocking you have been showing will keep it around for awhile also.  I wanted to pick your brain about the storm in my area Sunday and Monday, how concerned should I be about that boy being kinda positively tilted?

The pattern seems to slow down a bit so watch the models start to dig this storm.  That's my gut feeling at this point.  I have a couple reasons that support this idea: 1) The powerful lead storm that is going to wallop SE Canada pumps the ridge near Greenland.  2) The slight SER develops out ahead of the storm

 

pna.sprd2.gif

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The pattern seems to slow down a bit so watch the models start to dig this storm.  That's my gut feeling at this point.  I have a couple reasons that support this idea: 1) The powerful lead storm that is going to wallop SE Canada pumps the ridge near Greenland.  2) The slight SER develops out ahead of the storm

 

pna.sprd2.gif

Nice thank you for your input.  I did notice the ICON really slowed things down and kept kept the snow over me for quite awhile.

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GFS gonna be good?? Looks that way..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice thank you for your input.  I did notice the ICON really slowed things down and kept kept the snow over me for quite awhile.

For example, the last 6 runs of the GFS op show the jet structure starting to trend from positive tilted to neg til earlier each run...

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00z GFS...this system is going to happen...I'm sure the Euro/Ukie show a better system tonight...hitting the sack and will be back in the morning...

 

Surface reflection looked much less mixy over SMI this run. Really surprised by that map. Here's another off Pivotal

 

20191211 0z GFS h186 KCH Snowfall.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice thank you for your input.  I did notice the ICON really slowed things down and kept kept the snow over me for quite awhile.

Your welcome...we also have the LRC in our back pocket and the fact that the storm will be tracking through the seasons Long Term Long Wave Trough....

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