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December 2019 Observations & Discussion

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#51
Clinton

Posted 01 December 2019 - 05:32 AM

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It could very well be we were seeing harmonic rhythms within the LRC.  Let's see how this week shakes out and where things line up in the near term and by the storm target dates of 12/13 - 12/15.  Either way, we both had the right idea....interesting developments and thanks for posting the Euro map. 

No problem bud.  Very exciting and difficult to pin down this year.  Thanks for your analysis and all the hard work you put into all of this, most people don't understand how hard it is to make bold predictions and get them right most of the time.


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#52
Tom

Posted 01 December 2019 - 05:50 AM

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No problem bud.  Very exciting and difficult to pin down this year.  Thanks for your analysis and all the hard work you put into all of this, most people don't understand how hard it is to make bold predictions and get them right most of the time.

I think the early SSW event has thrown off the pattern quite a bit this season and as a result it has made it difficult to analyze the LRC.  Last year, the SSW happened much later in January and the year before that it was even later in February I believe.  This season has certainly provided interesting twists and turns.


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#53
Stormhunter87

Posted 01 December 2019 - 06:11 AM

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Very cute <_<

Just sad how this year turned out. Most if not all Riley's crew is gone after this year.

#54
jaster220

Posted 01 December 2019 - 06:49 AM

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At Tom & Clinton

Thanks to both you guys for following the LRC predictions and taking a lot of time keeping notes and trying hard to build a roadmap for our winter. It's a major challenge to remain hopeful when so many indicators look contrary. I'm certainly not stoic when it comes to the emotional ups and downs of favorable vs depressing outlooks. As I write it's a virtual snow globe outside my window! I'm really fortunate to start the month off with this white gold and really nice to see storms modeled 5+ days out actually happening, and not vanishing. I think this one has actually trended a bit south if anything, At least for the Lakes. Huge win imho
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#55
Sparky

Posted 01 December 2019 - 06:58 AM

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You are completely right, October 2009 was top five coldest for many; November was then top 5 warmest to follow! December 2009 then goes down as a historic month for many on this board.


Yeah December ‘09 went back to cold and very snowy. My records show 20.5” of snow that mo. with over 1’ in a few days time, probably from one storm.
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#56
MIKEKC

Posted 01 December 2019 - 06:59 AM

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Clinton/Tom,

I appreciate all that you do and by no means am I being a troll. I have just been wanting to get answers for years and I have shown proof how the LRC has not cycled at times.

So, all due respect,

You guys just this morning are using past storms to try and forecast future storms. I get it. I just want to know in this potential 47-49 day cycle, what storms are you using to compare the massive storms that just hit California. If you remember, there wasn’t a drop a rain in many areas of the SW for 45 days. No storms to compare...

If this LRC is accurate, can either of you give me a forecast for the following cities to cover DJF(basically winter)
KC, LA, Portland, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Denver, Dallas, Cleveland, DC, Boston, and Miami. Cover the whole country...

Example:

KC: Week of Dec 1st: look for temps to start cool early in the week but warm up to above average by mid week and stay there the rest of the 7 day period. One storm, likely rain will hit Thursday into Friday. No wintry storms this week.

I don’t think the above can happen at anything higher then a 30 percent average.

Gary Lezak thinks it can be done at a 70-80 percent accurate clip. I have asked him for direct forecasts for years, what do I get, very vague ones that can be twisted into being accurate every time.

Now, I believe a pattern can change at anytime. Meaning, we can go from dry to wet, rainy to snowy, etc. The LRC would argue against that most times. The LRC always has a way out, like, there was no blocking, the EPO went positive when this storm arrived and that’s why it was farther north..on and on. Seasonal differences is the big answer every time a storm is totally different then the prior cycle.

I want you guys to take all those variables and excuses and make a forecast right now for the above cities I posted. Is that possible? I would say no, but you guys have me convinced that you can.

Remember, I believe the LRC is a good forecasting tool, I just don’t think it is above 30-40 percent accurate.
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#57
Clinton

Posted 01 December 2019 - 06:59 AM

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You're welcome my friend, and I enjoy it.  One thing that is for sure is that these big,deep, and occluding lows (land hurricanes  :)) are a staple of this years pattern.  That can only be good and point to several blizzard setups.  Trust me when I tell you, you are very much in the right spot.


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#58
Sparky

Posted 01 December 2019 - 07:05 AM

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Wow, nice catch. yes I made a mistake on the year for the 3rd warmest December. The mean of 36.2° is correct but the year is 1982 and not 1983.  That is one of the issues of getting old and needing readers to read. Thanks for seeing that.

I wouldn’t even have noticed it either if Jaster hadn’t mentioned it, since I didn’t look very closely.
(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#59
westMJim

Posted 01 December 2019 - 07:14 AM

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Here is a summery of November 2019 in Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing Michigan.

 

A short wrap for November 2019. At Grand Rapids November 2019 had a mean temperature of 34.6° that is a departure of -5.5° and is a tie with last year for the 10th coldest November on record. There was 6.5” of snow fall and that is just under the 30 year average of 6.8” The high for the month was 54 on the 27th and the low was 15 on the 13th .  For Muskegon the mean for the month was 35.9 that is a departure of -4.3° it was the 12th coldest November of record there. The highest for the month was 54 on the 27th and the coldest was 18 on the 13th There was a total of 10.9” of snow fall. 6.0” is average. And to the east Lansing had a mean of 33.5° that is a departure of -6.1° and it was the 16th coldest on record there where the records go way back to 1863. The high for the month was 54 on the 4th and the low was 8 on the 12th and 13th they had 6.0” of snow and that is more then the average of 3.4”


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#60
Clinton

Posted 01 December 2019 - 07:15 AM

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Clinton/Tom,

I appreciate all that you do and by no means am I being a troll. I have just been wanting to get answers for years and I have shown proof how the LRC has not cycled at times.

So, all due respect,

You guys just this morning are using past storms to try and forecast future storms. I get it. I just want to know in this potential 47-49 day cycle, what storms are you using to compare the massive storms that just hit California. If you remember, there wasn’t a drop a rain in many areas of the SW for 45 days. No storms to compare...

If this LRC is accurate, can either of you give me a forecast for the following cities to cover DJF(basically winter)
KC, LA, Portland, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Denver, Dallas, Cleveland, DC, Boston, and Miami. Cover the whole country...

Example:

KC: Week of Dec 1st: look for temps to start cool early in the week but warm up to above average by mid week and stay there the rest of the 7 day period. One storm, likely rain will hit Thursday into Friday. No wintry storms this week.

I don’t think the above can happen at anything higher then a 30 percent average.

Gary Lezak thinks it can be done at a 70-80 percent accurate clip. I have asked him for direct forecasts for years, what do I get, very vague ones that can be twisted into being accurate every time.

Now, I believe a pattern can change at anytime. Meaning, we can go from dry to wet, rainy to snowy, etc. The LRC would argue against that most times. The LRC always has a way out, like, there was no blocking, the EPO went positive when this storm arrived and that’s why it was farther north..on and on. Seasonal differences is the big answer every time a storm is totally different then the prior cycle.

I want you guys to take all those variables and excuses and make a forecast right now for the above cities I posted. Is that possible? I would say no, but you guys have me convinced that you can.

Remember, I believe the LRC is a good forecasting tool, I just don’t think it is above 30-40 percent accurate.

I don't wanna speak for Tom, but what I look for are surface features and this year for them to line up with the storm we had Oct 10th-13th.  Gary believes that the LRC dictates the teleconections, I believe that they are more wild cards, but with some predictability.  Tom uses other long range tools like the BSR and others along with the LRC that have proven many times to be right,  I am not good enough to forecast for the entire country, but I  am trying to build a map for our forum.  I don't have the time to forecast a whole winter for all those cities that you listed, but when I am convinced that we have started cycle 2 I will lay out some dates for storms and will try to make a prediction for which areas in our forum will be affected by each.


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#61
Tom

Posted 01 December 2019 - 07:31 AM

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Clinton/Tom,

I appreciate all that you do and by no means am I being a troll. I have just been wanting to get answers for years and I have shown proof how the LRC has not cycled at times.

So, all due respect,

You guys just this morning are using past storms to try and forecast future storms. I get it. I just want to know in this potential 47-49 day cycle, what storms are you using to compare the massive storms that just hit California. If you remember, there wasn’t a drop a rain in many areas of the SW for 45 days. No storms to compare...

If this LRC is accurate, can either of you give me a forecast for the following cities to cover DJF(basically winter)
KC, LA, Portland, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Denver, Dallas, Cleveland, DC, Boston, and Miami. Cover the whole country...

Example:

KC: Week of Dec 1st: look for temps to start cool early in the week but warm up to above average by mid week and stay there the rest of the 7 day period. One storm, likely rain will hit Thursday into Friday. No wintry storms this week.

I don’t think the above can happen at anything higher then a 30 percent average.

Gary Lezak thinks it can be done at a 70-80 percent accurate clip. I have asked him for direct forecasts for years, what do I get, very vague ones that can be twisted into being accurate every time.

Now, I believe a pattern can change at anytime. Meaning, we can go from dry to wet, rainy to snowy, etc. The LRC would argue against that most times. The LRC always has a way out, like, there was no blocking, the EPO went positive when this storm arrived and that’s why it was farther north..on and on. Seasonal differences is the big answer every time a storm is totally different then the prior cycle.

I want you guys to take all those variables and excuses and make a forecast right now for the above cities I posted. Is that possible? I would say no, but you guys have me convinced that you can.

Remember, I believe the LRC is a good forecasting tool, I just don’t think it is above 30-40 percent accurate.

 

If you wanted me to give you a forecast for all the cities you mentioned above it would require me hours upon hours of studying/analyzing which I do not have.  However, if you were to pay me $$$ that would be a different story!  ;) I can understand your frustration or rather, disbelief that this current storm is part of the cycling pattern.  Believe me, I was going back and forth on this idea over the last week but today I "saw" the cycle length and the repeating pattern in the modeling.  Maybe I'm wrong, I could very well be until we hear from Gary and his crew what they have to say. 

 

Nevertheless, I typically don't like predicting out more than 30-45 days bc so much can change with regards to Blocking/Teleconnections.  For instance, why did this powerful storm hit the Cali/4 corners region and not in early Oct?  I think that had a lot to do with the EPO tanking during this LRC cycle.  Why do I believe this storm will continue to target CA and the SW in future LRC cycles #2 - #4???  Well, as far as that goes, you have to use your best judgement and try to provide your best guess as to why you would predict a -EPO during that time frame during the heart of winter and early Spring.  Those very warm waters in the NE PAC argue a -EPO being more persistent during winter than mid Autumn (which is when this part of the pattern had the storm go north of CA). See map below... Seasonal strengthening of the jet has a lot to do with it as well.

 

 

sfcplot_sm_20191009.gif


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#62
Tom

Posted 01 December 2019 - 07:39 AM

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I don't wanna speak for Tom, but what I look for are surface features and this year for them to line up with the storm we had Oct 10th-13th.  Gary believes that the LRC dictates the teleconections, I believe that they are more wild cards, but with some predictability.  Tom uses other long range tools like the BSR and others along with the LRC that have proven many times to be right,  I am not good enough to forecast for the entire country, but I  am trying to build a map for our forum.  I don't have the time to forecast a whole winter for all those cities that you listed, but when I am convinced that we have started cycle 2 I will lay out some dates for storms and will try to make a prediction for which areas in our forum will be affected by each.

Regarding the bolded, I have to respectfully disagree with him on that bc the wild card this year has been the early disruption of the PV which I do not believe he has ever mentioned in any blog that I read.  Personally, I believe that is a huge deal, esp this season which has contributed to the spike of the AO/NAO that is currently happening now.  The LRC could not have been useful for this purpose.  I do agree with you that there are more wild cards to consider and one of the main reasons I do not necessarily like to predict out more than 30-45+ days during the Winter season.  


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#63
MIKEKC

Posted 01 December 2019 - 07:44 AM

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Clinton/Tom

Thanks for your responses. Let’s simplify it, give me a DJF forecast for KC using the LRC....of course when you have time.

I just often get the why after the what when talking to Lezak wrt the LRC. I’m not trying to put you in with Lezak, just noting that you guys push his theory and that’s why I question.

Clinton...i’m heading out to the game today...time for Mahomes and the boys to get this train rolling. Fully healthy it sounds like for the first time since quarter 1 of the first game. Time to make a charge!
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#64
Niko

Posted 01 December 2019 - 08:13 AM

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Attm, rain and cold conditions w temps in the mid 30s. Very raw morning outside.



#65
Clinton

Posted 01 December 2019 - 08:14 AM

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Clinton/Tom

Thanks for your responses. Let’s simplify it, give me a DJF forecast for KC using the LRC....of course when you have time.

I just often get the why after the what when talking to Lezak wrt the LRC. I’m not trying to put you in with Lezak, just noting that you guys push his theory and that’s why I question.

Clinton...i’m heading out to the game today...time for Mahomes and the boys to get this train rolling. Fully healthy it sounds like for the first time since quarter 1 of the first game. Time to make a charge!

Time for the Chiefs to lay the hammer down on somebody.  I like to use the LRC, I don't mean to push it on others.  I am very much still learning about it and other tools. Lots of great and smart folks on here to learn and discuss weather with.


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#66
gimmesnow

Posted 01 December 2019 - 10:55 AM

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Very sad day for me. Ski hill is closed, the rain took out their base. They had around 12 to 17 inches, too.

 

They are going to try and blow and re-open by Wednesday of this week, but the temps are not very good for blowing snow, and there's no sign of anything remotely decent until december 9th.

 

What a sad season so far. It started with a record early opening, which I missed because I never expected it, and now the hill is closed to start off December because of rain.

 

They need under 28 degrees wet bulb temp to make anything good, and the next 9 days don't look good at all.


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#67
Mi_Matthew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 03:41 PM

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Operational GFS found the cold again mid-month. I'm thinking this one will be the real deal despite the torchy 3-4 week CPC outlook. The 15th or so lines up well with what Tom has been advertising as well as Judah Cohen's blog. 12z CMC looking very similar as well with the 1030+mb high lurking just north of the border ready to pounce. I'm ready!
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#68
Andie

Posted 01 December 2019 - 04:55 PM

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North Texas is looking at a week of 50's and 60's, dry, breezy, and partly cloudy.

Feels like Spring.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#69
Niko

Posted 01 December 2019 - 05:07 PM

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Cloudy w a temp at 35F. A few flurries possible.



#70
Niko

Posted 01 December 2019 - 05:09 PM

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Looks like seasonable temps next week w temps in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Quiet, dry week also. Unless, a storm shows up outta nowhere.

 

Next shot of rain comes next weekend w highs warming into the mid 40s. Yes, rain and not snow. :rolleyes:


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#71
jaster220

Posted 01 December 2019 - 06:15 PM

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At Tom & Clinton

Thanks to both you guys for following the LRC predictions and taking a lot of time keeping notes and trying hard to build a roadmap for our winter. It's a major challenge to remain hopeful when so many indicators look contrary. I'm certainly not stoic when it comes to the emotional ups and downs of favorable vs depressing outlooks. As I write it's a virtual snow globe outside my window! I'm really fortunate to start the month off with this white gold and really nice to see storms modeled 5+ days out actually happening, and not vanishing. I think this one has actually trended a bit south if anything, At least for the Lakes. Huge win imho

 

Between the blocking HP in ONT and the optimal overnight timing of precip, this ended up being waaay closer than it was looking per forecasts. As a matter of fact they were plowing snow a mere 30 miles north of mby! Driving south I figured we'd run out of the snow 100 miles north, boy was I shocked to see how far south the snowy conditions got.  :)


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#72
jaster220

Posted 01 December 2019 - 07:02 PM

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Looks like seasonable temps next week w temps in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Quiet, dry week also. Unless, a storm shows up outta nowhere.

 

Next shot of rain comes next weekend w highs warming into the mid 40s. Yes, rain and not snow. :rolleyes:

 

You GOT your snow. On Vet's Day. Hope you stuffed your freezer full for the holidays!  :lol:  Fwiw, I'm actually feeling pretty good about SMI's chances during the final 10 days of Dec. Might even start sooner than that, but I'm really pulling for a white holiday period.  ;)


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#73
Niko

Posted 01 December 2019 - 08:38 PM

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You GOT your snow. On Vet's Day. Hope you stuffed your freezer full for the holidays!  :lol:  Fwiw, I'm actually feeling pretty good about SMI's chances during the final 10 days of Dec. Might even start sooner than that, but I'm really pulling for a white holiday period.  ;)

Yep, I GOT my Vet's D snowstorm. That was definitely not expected by these idiots on TV. That goes to show you that MA Nature will do what she wants.


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#74
Niko

Posted 01 December 2019 - 08:40 PM

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Attm, cloudy w a temp of 36F.



#75
Tom

Posted 02 December 2019 - 03:38 AM

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After a busy week last week, I'm looking forward to seeing abundant sunshine throughout the week and tranquil weather.  I need things to dry out a bit and do my final, final clean up after all the wind last week which blew all of my neighbors leaves back onto my yard.  Not to mention, all of the broken branches that snapped off my trees from the wild wind gusts.  We had some ugly and dreary days last week so the sunshine will certainly be welcomed as we closed the books on a very cloudy month of November (33% of possible sunshine).

 

Over the last 24 hours and since my post yesterday morning, I think the wx God's and the models were listening bc suddenly the cold and storm potential showed up.  Looks like our next possible storm to track is starting to show more consistency among the various op/ensembles for the 8th/9th period. 

 

We have seen this set up countless times already this season whereby a lead N stream wave tracks across the North setting up a boundary orientated SW/NE and a stronger southern wave runs up the front. 

 

00z EPS seeing that energy in the "slot" by Sunday...I'd like to see a few more days of runs before getting to excited but this storm fits the LRC so let's see where the models trend. 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

 

 

 

Boy, the GEFS certainly got rid of those warm anomalies in a hurry!  I'm starting to finally see the best wintry/snowy signal of the season post 10th of this month.  Generally speaking, I'm pleased to see what the models are advertising as they are confirming what I boldly stated the other day.  Winter is coming back for those of us farther south...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

snod.conus.png


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#76
Clinton

Posted 02 December 2019 - 03:52 AM

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After a busy week last week, I'm looking forward to seeing abundant sunshine throughout the week and tranquil weather.  I need things to dry out a bit and do my final, final clean up after all the wind last week which blew all of my neighbors leaves back onto my yard.  Not to mention, all of the broken branches that snapped off my trees from the wild wind gusts.  We had some ugly and dreary days last week so the sunshine will certainly be welcomed as we closed the books on a very cloudy month of November (33% of possible sunshine).

 

Over the last 24 hours and since my post yesterday morning, I think the wx God's and the models were listening bc suddenly the cold and storm potential showed up.  Looks like our next possible storm to track is starting to show more consistency among the various op/ensembles for the 8th/9th period. 

 

We have seen this set up countless times already this season whereby a lead N stream wave tracks across the North setting up a boundary orientated SW/NE and a stronger southern wave runs up the front. 

 

00z EPS seeing that energy in the "slot" by Sunday...I'd like to see a few more days of runs before getting to excited but this storm fits the LRC so let's see where the models trend. 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

 

 

 

Boy, the GEFS certainly got rid of those warm anomalies in a hurry!  I'm starting to finally see the best wintry/snowy signal of the season post 10th of this month.  Generally speaking, I'm pleased to see what the models are advertising as they are confirming what I boldly stated the other day.  Winter is coming back for those of us farther south...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

snod.conus.png

No torch in the works for Dec.  The storm on the 15th is still showing up well on the EC, not to mention a nice snow on the 8th-10th still showing up for you guys up north.  Oklahoma wx it's time to wake up!  So here is the EC and Euro mean.

1576540800-tB0PE3ZF6JI.png

1576540800-EbGCgvVtcHg.png


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#77
Tom

Posted 02 December 2019 - 03:54 AM

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There are ever-growing signals that severe winter conditions set up by mid month and will have legs.  My goodness, if this comes close to fruition, we will see vicious Arctic air by mid month.  Cross Polar Flow and a signal for a solid -AO in the cards....ya'll ready????

 

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_27.png


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#78
Tom

Posted 02 December 2019 - 03:56 AM

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No torch in the works for Dec.  The storm on the 15th is still showing up well on the EC, not to mention a nice snow on the 8th-10th still showing up for you guys up north.  Oklahoma wx it's time to wake up!  So here is the EC and Euro mean.

1576540800-tB0PE3ZF6JI.png

1576540800-EbGCgvVtcHg.png

If the EPS is showing that much coverage of snow over the next 2 weeks its definitely trending in the right direction.  The EPS has such a warm bias this season out into Week 2 its crazy.  Nice to see the SW/NE orientation suggesting SW Flow which fits the LR ideas.


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#79
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 December 2019 - 05:25 AM

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Got down to 12F last night. Fresh snow cover providing a good chill.
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#80
dubuque473

Posted 02 December 2019 - 05:53 AM

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14 with the windchill here..


Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#81
westMJim

Posted 02 December 2019 - 06:33 AM

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Not really a December topic but any records will be reached in December'

 

With the year’s precipitation now at 48.18” Grand Rapids is inching closer to a record for the most total annual precipitation. At this time GR is in 2nd place records have been kept here at Grand Rapids since 1892 at 3 different locations first at a downtown location until 1926, then the old airport 1926 to 1963 and since 1963 at the current airport. Note the old airport was on 32nd between South Division and Kalamazoo SE. The current record precipitation is 48.80” set in 2008.



#82
Clinton

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:03 AM

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Tom, after reading Lezaks blog this morning it does indeed sound like we are in cycle 2 and I think you nailed it at 48 days.  He made a prediction for a major storm in the plains at the end of the year.  You can't make a prediction that far out without knowing the cycle length.  This is the part I found interesting.

 

"So, it has been rather dry in KC in this first LRC Cycle.  Is this trend going to continue. It certainly looks like it, but hang on, near the end of the year we see a feature that will likely produce a major storm and an Arctic outbreak.  The pattern also seems favorable for  block to develop.  We are forecasting a major winter storm in the plains and near KC during the last five days of the year, and with a likely Arctic blast.  Confidence is high. If the pattern does not block up, then this storm would likely go just north of KC. We will be monitoring the pattern closely."


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#83
Hawkeye

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:21 AM

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The Des Moines radar will be down for the next two weeks.  Fortunately, it does not appear the radar will be needed.


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season snowfall: 13.1"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#84
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:29 AM

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Looks really quiet around here for the next 2 weeks.  Been a nice run of a snowpack, but looks like in the next couple of weeks all that will be left is the large snow piles and some drifts.  That's ok, hoping for the pattern to reload leading up to and after Christmas.  


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#85
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:34 AM

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There are ever-growing signals that severe winter conditions set up by mid month and will have legs.  My goodness, if this comes close to fruition, we will see vicious Arctic air by mid month.  Cross Polar Flow and a signal for a solid -AO in the cards....ya'll ready????

 

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_27.png

 

vicious Arctic air

 

Need some snow OTG to make that sound more bearable, lol 


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#86
MIKEKC

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:36 AM

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Clinton,

You see how Gary is laying the ground work for the LRC to always win. “If” there isn’t blocking, then the storm will miss KC. If there is blocking, then the storm will hit.

He did the same thing last Jan. prior to the big snow storm that hit on Jan. 12th. 5 days before the storm the data was not showing a major storm and he started hedging...made a comment that was sure to hit...” the storm due in next week will either be a strong cold front or a major winter storm” obviously the storm was big here in KC and all we heard for months is that he called for it months in advance.

Always a way out....strong cold front or major winter storm??? Lol
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#87
Tom

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:42 AM

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Tom, after reading Lezaks blog this morning it does indeed sound like we are in cycle 2 and I think you nailed it at 48 days.  He made a prediction for a major storm in the plains at the end of the year.  You can't make a prediction that far out without knowing the cycle length.  This is the part I found interesting.

 

"So, it has been rather dry in KC in this first LRC Cycle.  Is this trend going to continue. It certainly looks like it, but hang on, near the end of the year we see a feature that will likely produce a major storm and an Arctic outbreak.  The pattern also seems favorable for  block to develop.  We are forecasting a major winter storm in the plains and near KC during the last five days of the year, and with a likely Arctic blast.  Confidence is high. If the pattern does not block up, then this storm would likely go just north of KC. We will be monitoring the pattern closely."

I was thinking the same thing as I read his blog about 30 min ago.  Sounds like he has a good idea of what the cycle length is this year.  If that's the case, we should have an action packed 2nd half of the month!


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#88
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:45 AM

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The SST profile needs to change or winter is over for me. I'm losing the favorable profile off the Baja and, really the ENSO profile as a whole is rapidly becoming poor.

Attached File  cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (3).png   129.05KB   0 downloads
Attached File  cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (1).png   133.34KB   0 downloads

#89
Clinton

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:53 AM

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Clinton,

You see how Gary is laying the ground work for the LRC to always win. “If” there isn’t blocking, then the storm will miss KC. If there is blocking, then the storm will hit.

He did the same thing last Jan. prior to the big snow storm that hit on Jan. 12th. 5 days before the storm the data was not showing a major storm and he started hedging...made a comment that was sure to hit...” the storm due in next week will either be a strong cold front or a major winter storm” obviously the storm was big here in KC and all we heard for months is that he called for it months in advance.

Always a way out....strong cold front or major winter storm??? Lol

Absolutely that is one thing he is going to have to concede is that the teleconections are more of a wild card than he will admit.


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#90
Niko

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:54 AM

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Cloudy w temps at 33F. A coating of snow fell this morning here. NO biggie!


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#91
Clinton

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:54 AM

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I was thinking the same thing as I read his blog about 30 min ago.  Sounds like he has a good idea of what the cycle length is this year.  If that's the case, we should have an action packed 2nd half of the month!

I know I'm excited.  The storm the EC is picking up on around the 15th, that would be related to the gulf system in Oct?


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#92
Niko

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:57 AM

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This tranquil weather will give people a chance to put out their Christmas Decor. Great opportunity. Also, hopefully pattern reloads in time for Christmas snow.


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#93
Tom

Posted 02 December 2019 - 08:11 AM

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This tranquil weather will give people a chance to put out their Christmas Decor. Great opportunity. Also, hopefully pattern reloads in time for Christmas snow.

I've only seen a handful of houses with their holiday lights up.  This weekend was not ideal.  I'm sure many will be putting them up this week/weekend...I will be!



#94
Niko

Posted 02 December 2019 - 08:21 AM

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I've only seen a handful of houses with their holiday lights up.  This weekend was not ideal.  I'm sure many will be putting them up this week/weekend...I will be!

Yep...although, yesterday afternoon was not that bad. Kinda ok to put up decor. As a matter a fact, I saw a couple of neighbors getting theirs ready.



#95
gimmesnow

Posted 02 December 2019 - 08:39 AM

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78974552_3221973014540238_32912861381735

Well, they are really trying at least. I would have really liked for a good cold snap after the rain, like lows in the 10s. The historically early open has been shut down by rain.

 

I really hope it's a cold and snowy Christmas vacation for everyone. These ski hills in the midwest really need it. Even if they make snow, people don't realize it's open unless it's cold and snowing outside. It's the make it or break it time of year. And when it costs so much to make snow, a successful Christmas and New Years season will give all the season pass holders, like me, lots of freshly blown snow and a lot more effort put into the hill.

 

Alpine Valley had a craft show last Saturday. It feels like whenever they try and do one of these events, the weather is not in their favor.

 

The last couple years have been rough. If we could get a good snow storm sometime after December 15th or so, and it sticks, a lot of people would be very happy.

 

So far this season has been very annoying. I missed the early opening because I was visiting my parents. And because of the early cold, I spent time doing leaves and other stuff before I could really start shredding. And now the hill is closed today. Thankfully they are opening for Wednesday, but I really hope this is not a sign of things to come. We have had too many winters where it warms up, gets wet, rains, and then gets annoying cold the last few years. It's been a horrible cycle and it's been very rough on snowboarders, skiiers, and snowmobiliers in SE Wisconsin. I imagine a lot of other people are in similar situations where they couldn't take advantage of the early cold and snow, and now that they got prepared for Winter it's on a short hiatus for some of us further south.

 

Quality of blown snow really gets a lot better when it's colder. It starts at 28 degrees wet bulb temp, but the closer you get to zero, the more natural the snow ends up. Less ice, smaller flakes, etc. It's never like natural snow, which is good. 12 inches of natural powder will groom out to only a few inches of skiiable stuff. Man made stuff compacts very well and is much more resilient to water and warm temps.

 

AV did good blowing a ton of snow very early. I worry about these other hills that skipped the early November cold and waited to blow. After that cold, there hasn't been any really great times to blow snow. To open, you usually need 48 hours of below 28 degrees, colder the better. We haven't really gotten that. And to be honest, if it weren't for that cold snap, I don't think they could have saved that hill. I know other places like Wilmot are struggling to be open. And looking at the forecast, while Alpine Valley had a record early opening, it looks like the ones that didn't take advantage of it will be having one of their latest openings ever. It's been a tough fall for midwest ski resorts.


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#96
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 December 2019 - 09:12 AM

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It's been flurrying all morning. It's melting right as it hits surfaces but still sets a good mood, at least. 33.6*F.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 4.1"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#97
bud2380

Posted 02 December 2019 - 09:23 AM

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GFS with a small system moving through in about 7-8 days.  Maybe finally something to keep an eye on.  I believe the Euro had something similar as well.  

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png


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#98
Niko

Posted 02 December 2019 - 09:56 AM

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Snowstorm happening in NYC. Friends and family members are telling me that strong winds there making it at times near blizzard conditions. Local forecasts are calling for 5-8inches. All models going w 4-8inches for the NY Metro Area.


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#99
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2019 - 10:08 AM

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78974552_3221973014540238_32912861381735

Well, they are really trying at least. I would have really liked for a good cold snap after the rain, like lows in the 10s. The historically early open has been shut down by rain.

 

I really hope it's a cold and snowy Christmas vacation for everyone. These ski hills in the midwest really need it. Even if they make snow, people don't realize it's open unless it's cold and snowing outside. It's the make it or break it time of year. And when it costs so much to make snow, a successful Christmas and New Years season will give all the season pass holders, like me, lots of freshly blown snow and a lot more effort put into the hill.

 

Alpine Valley had a craft show last Saturday. It feels like whenever they try and do one of these events, the weather is not in their favor.

 

The last couple years have been rough. If we could get a good snow storm sometime after December 15th or so, and it sticks, a lot of people would be very happy.

 

So far this season has been very annoying. I missed the early opening because I was visiting my parents. And because of the early cold, I spent time doing leaves and other stuff before I could really start shredding. And now the hill is closed today. Thankfully they are opening for Wednesday, but I really hope this is not a sign of things to come. We have had too many winters where it warms up, gets wet, rains, and then gets annoying cold the last few years. It's been a horrible cycle and it's been very rough on snowboarders, skiiers, and snowmobiliers in SE Wisconsin. I imagine a lot of other people are in similar situations where they couldn't take advantage of the early cold and snow, and now that they got prepared for Winter it's on a short hiatus for some of us further south.

 

Quality of blown snow really gets a lot better when it's colder. It starts at 28 degrees wet bulb temp, but the closer you get to zero, the more natural the snow ends up. Less ice, smaller flakes, etc. It's never like natural snow, which is good. 12 inches of natural powder will groom out to only a few inches of skiiable stuff. Man made stuff compacts very well and is much more resilient to water and warm temps.

 

AV did good blowing a ton of snow very early. I worry about these other hills that skipped the early November cold and waited to blow. After that cold, there hasn't been any really great times to blow snow. To open, you usually need 48 hours of below 28 degrees, colder the better. We haven't really gotten that. And to be honest, if it weren't for that cold snap, I don't think they could have saved that hill. I know other places like Wilmot are struggling to be open. And looking at the forecast, while Alpine Valley had a record early opening, it looks like the ones that didn't take advantage of it will be having one of their latest openings ever. It's been a tough fall for midwest ski resorts.

 

This x100. These yo-yo patterns are exciting for their potential to "go big", but they certainly haven't been doing that for the Lwr Lakes region. A steady-state cold pattern would do wonders for winter sport activities as you say. 



#100
Niko

Posted 02 December 2019 - 10:53 AM

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A few flurries flying around puts you in the Christmas Holiday spirit. Temp at 33F.


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