Tom Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 There is no sugar coating it, this blow torch is for real and it has some legs...mid 50's in the grid for today through Thursday. Meantime, the trend in the GEFS seems to be losing the snow as it heads east and more of a typical Spring-like cutoff low pressure system tracking across the heartland where most of the snow falls in the Plains states. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 While the Polar Vortex started off the month in a weakened state, nature has decided to show us who's boss as the PV re-intensified over the Pole in a dramatic fashion. What in the world has happened to our Blocking???? While the Sun continues to Sleep with 40 straight days of spotless days, will we eventually see these impacts?? Time will tell, as I sit here both stunned and humbled by the predictability of the modeling and the reality that nature always shows who's the Boss.Spotless DaysCurrent Stretch: 40 days2019 total: 277 days (78%) 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 We are back from a short trip up to Bay City. Had a nice time visiting several relatives. Boy with the warm temperatures and sun I have to say it looks and feels more like March than December. From Grand Rapids to Bay City there is just a very few snow piles and that is it. The high here in Grand Rapids yesterday of 52 was the 6th warmest December 22nd on record. And this whole week could be one of the top 5 warmest Christmas weeks on record here in GR. But I can say I will be able to walk outside ever day so that is a good thing and it will lower the heating bills for everyone. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 A lot easier to take this Decembers warmth after almost a foot of snow early on. I am praying for a repeat of last Jan-April. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 There is no sugar coating it, this blow torch is for real and it has some legs...mid 50's in the grid for today through Thursday. Meantime, the trend in the GEFS seems to be losing the snow as it heads east and more of a typical Spring-like cutoff low pressure system tracking across the heartland where most of the snow falls in the Plains states. Pretty much what I figured. Even if the track trended more favorable, the lack of cold makes for low snow production. We (Lwr Lakes) suck in a warm regime. Need that cold to be bold for us to score well. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 While the Polar Vortex started off the month in a weakened state, nature has decided to us who's boss as the PV re-intensified over the Pole in a dramatic fashion. What in the world has happened to our Blocking???? While the Sun continues to Sleep with 40 straight days of spotless days, will we eventually see these impacts?? Time will tell, as I sit here both stunned and humbled by the predictability of the modeling and the reality that nature always shows who's the Boss. Gotta love these years when every analog and signal looks so great, only to have Nature go against them and do as it pleases. We have at times been the benefactor of such too tho, so it's not always a bad deal, just has been lately. 2009-10 Nino that was trumped by the mega -NAO, 2013-14 mega +AO that was trumped by the -EPO, and 2015-16 mega-Nino that gave me more snowstorms than any season since are three examples that come to mind.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Last nights EC was very close to a big snow storm next weekend, just a tad to warm Might be a case of "close, but no cigar" (whatever that old saying meant). At this point, I'd consider a 2-3" score as winning. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Hopefully winter returns soon...but for now......... 9 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 /\ GRR = "we don't know" -- Next system with impacts likely to hold off until at least nextweekend --There remains a good deal of uncertainty with regards to the weathernext weekend, and when the next more significant chance ofprecipitation comes in with it. The uncertainty is a result of howfast a SW low lifts into the area, and how it may interact with anorthern stream system with some cold air. The system could come inas early as later Saturday, to as late as Mon-Tue. P-type with thesystem could be more rain if the northern stream and cold air staysnorth, and moves out before the southern stream moves in, to somesnow possible if timing allows for some phasing.It is impossible to know at this time any timing or p-type details.So for now, we will have some chances for precipitation in theforecast for next weekend, with rain and snow possible. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 6z GFS with a foot of snow for me next weekend. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 I see the GFS is showing a potential storm over the weekend. Considering I'm heading out to Cali on Saturday, I fully expect that storm to materialize around here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Attm, a balmy 37F w deep blue skies. This looks like a December heatwave. Highs today will be in the 50s and would not be surprise if 60s pop up somewhere in SMI. Bring it on. Wow....Might as well enjoy it becuz I am getting used to this BS weather anyway. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Was 65F on Christmas of '82, and not much colder two years later. It has been even milder, but this kind of weather has another 9 months to thrive in. We need winter during winter. Seems we've all but lost December as a winter month around here anymore. I was 2 that year lol. 83' was record cold year I believe as well. My parents tell me story about how everyone in was in shorts and playing pick-up football and basketball on Xmas day in 82'. As much as I love snow and cold, I would have loved to experience that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 12z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 GFS coming in wet, looks to be shifting further NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Yeah, big shift NW from the 00z and 6z runs, seems even stronger this run too. Looks to blast parts of SD and even the Twin Cities. Solid rain fest here in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 GFS in the past few days has had the heaviest snow in Western Kansas, then Eastern Iowa, now South Dakota and Minnesota. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Rainer all day long here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Sad times when jolly old Saint Nicholas has to deploy alternate landing gear in NMI Otherwise, high temps mostly in the mid to upper 30s are expectedacross northern Michigan on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Theseabove average temperatures will continue to melt the existingsnowpack through the period, meaning Santa should prepare for spotsof green across northern Michigan Christmas Eve night. Winds couldget a little gusty on Tuesday before calming overnight. Aside fromthe low chance of precipitation later on Christmas Day, no weather-related travel concerns are anticipated for the holidays. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Old Reliable GFS with today's solution. Tune in tonight for a completely different solution. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 12z ICON Why the "blink" response? That actually looks much more likely than any southern solution attm. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 There's actually some sub-32F regions in the Upper MW attm @ SPS Looks like this little weak CF will help cool you down up there preserving your White Christmas morning. How's the snow pack currently? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 I have family that is supposed to travel to Omaha from SoDak this Saturday the 28th and I have no idea what to tell them to expect for weather. Definitely frustrating as we're unable to make any real plans at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Last 4 runs of the GFS 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 I was 2 that year lol. 83' was record cold year I believe as well. My parents tell me story about how everyone in was in shorts and playing pick-up football and basketball on Xmas day in 82'. As much as I love snow and cold, I would have loved to experience that. And there were thunderstorms on that afternoon as a "cold" front swept thru. The next day the high was only 41. But it was back up to 61 on the 28th 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 I have family that is supposed to travel to Omaha from SoDak this Saturday the 28th and I have no idea what to tell them to expect for weather. Definitely frustrating as we're unable to make any real plans at this point.You hit right on the head. This is only 5 days away. It’s not like we’re at 240 or 384 hours . It is frustrating for sure to see the lack of continuity from run to run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 UKIE and Canadian are not showing any appreciable storms. It must be lonely on GFS Island. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 We have relatives coming here this weekend from KC. They asked what the weather would be like this weekend. I said it could be dry, raining, freezing rain, or a snowstorm. We had a good laugh but that is where I sit today not having a clue. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 ok, I didn't let the Canadian run finish out, it is showing a strong storm, but much further south and appears to be slower onset. Snow maps aren't up yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Canadian blasts eastern CO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Pretty amazing how unreliable models are at 5 days out 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Canadian blasts eastern CO Typical strong Nino climo - lock it. This IS acting like a strong Nino btw (minus the EC storms missing us south) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 FWIW, I trust the Canadian as much as I do the GFS. Which is to say, not at all. At this point, honestly the only reliable models 4+ days out are the Euro and UK. Everything else is garbage beyond that range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 There's actually some sub-32F regions in the Upper MW attm 20191223 11am CONUS Temps.jpg @ SPS Looks like this little weak CF will help cool you down up there preserving your White Christmas morning. How's the snow pack currently? We started the weekend with 8” officially otg before the torch started. According to MPX only 2” melted despite temps in the low 40s for several straight days. I would say I have about 4” otg in my yard. My backyard faces south and I have one bare spot. White Christmas is a lock. Sorry that you and the majority of the sub won’t have that. We got lucky with the snow in early Dec and the cold spell afterwards. Otherwise we’d be brown too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 12z GFS mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 On a separate note, should the GFS verify (yeah right), my in laws would probably be stuck at my house. So total conflict of interest.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 12z GFS mean LOL @ #8 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 I know, I know, always an optimist with his outlooks and/or cold bias but.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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