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December 2019 Observations & Discussion

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#151
james1976

Posted 03 December 2019 - 10:50 AM

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Social media is on fire with "Coldmageddon" talk....it's nice to hear Winter is coming back...

Hopefully we can get some snow OTG before it hits
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#152
westMJim

Posted 03 December 2019 - 10:52 AM

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Prolly more in parts of greater GR. My daughter had biz there this morning. Got a txt later saying "Wow there's snow here!".  Guess she was clueless about Sundays' storm and how it narrowly missed us a couple counties south. 

The snow that fell was a very wet heavy snow so it is a very solid snow on the ground. The large parking lot snow piles make it look like it is even more.


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#153
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 10:57 AM

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12z Euro has the gulf/OV storm.  And there is some blocking showing up!

 

1576216800-0UvK3jRas6Y.png

 

1576238400-aCuwQFZAku8.png


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#154
james1976

Posted 03 December 2019 - 10:59 AM

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12z Euro has the gulf/OV storm. And there is some blocking showing up!

1576216800-0UvK3jRas6Y.png

1576238400-aCuwQFZAku8.png

Would this be the same system the GFS is showing for the 10th?
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#155
Tom

Posted 03 December 2019 - 10:59 AM

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Tom,

12z GFS for KC says most of the cold will stay north and east of here, has most days above average and no big storms. Matter of fact, very dry run.

You thinking we get into the action after the 15th or so.

Yes, the GFS op is notorious for overdoing blocking and the models will be erratic run-to-run, esp with a tanking EPO.  Your in a good spot for the storm that I'm expecting between the 12th-14th. 


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#156
Tom

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:01 AM

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Would this be the same system the GFS is showing for the 10th?

No, sorry...got my dates wrong...this would be the storm around the 12th/13th...


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#157
Niko

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:23 AM

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Attm, light snow and temp is at 32F.

 

 

 

Next week is looking COLDDDDDDDD..BRRRRR!!!! Also I am seeing snow chances. Time to start adding some accumulations in the snow dept.


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#158
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:24 AM

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Hope the trend keeps going this way. The artic air coming down over the snow pack up north that Tom showed will help.


Give it 5 days. Lol. I'm not riding a 10 day stretch with a lot of hope. Cold air is just cold air. Lol. Only thing changing down here is my electric bill.
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#159
Niko

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:25 AM

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12z Euro has the gulf/OV storm.  And there is some blocking showing up!

 

1576216800-0UvK3jRas6Y.png

 

1576238400-aCuwQFZAku8.png

I like what I am seeing.


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#160
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:28 AM

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Since last Thursdays JMA weeklies run, the Euro has slowly trended away from Phase 3 of the MJO....signaling the colder trends in its Week 1-2 period.  I'm sure future runs in the EPS forecast will continue to head lower.

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

JB in his Saturday Summary says that he's watching the Indian Ocean for signals (raging convection) that would indicate a repeat of last December and so far he's not seeing anything like that. Just a fwiw..


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#161
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:34 AM

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12z Euro has the gulf/OV storm.  And there is some blocking showing up!

 

1576216800-0UvK3jRas6Y.png

 

1576238400-aCuwQFZAku8.png

 

Liking the look, but Madtown said he's outta the game, so can't be right.  ;)


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#162
Tom

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:37 AM

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JB in his Saturday Summary says that he's watching the Indian Ocean for signals (raging convection) that would indicate a repeat of last December and so far he's not seeing anything like that. Just a fwiw..

The JMA has done a phenomenal job with the MJO this season...I'm riding with it...


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#163
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:54 AM

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No shortage of storms come mid month.  EC has this one right on schedule for the 17th,18th time frame.

 

1576605600-zpC5ZzwZcrY.png

1576670400-Dk5A1TwHBX8.png


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#164
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:56 AM

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Liking the look, but Madtown said he's outta the game, so can't be right.  ;)

:lol:



#165
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:57 AM

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Slowly looking better and better.

 

1576670400-d1l79KRwQaE.png


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#166
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:05 PM

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Per a Met from LOT regarding any correlation between early snows/snowy winters for Chicagoland.  

 

This is probably an obvious statement to make, but we did check a few years ago and there's a strong correlation between precip anomaly and snowfall amounts. CPC has essentially the entire sub-forum in enhanced probabilities for AN precip in the DJF and JFM outlooks. They also have a lean toward cooler anomalies for a portion of the sub in the JFM outlook. So if the above normal precip works out, that would seem to increase the odds for above normal snowfall when also accounting for the head start, unless it ends up being a blowtorch winter.



#167
james1976

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:09 PM

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Slowly looking better and better.

1576670400-d1l79KRwQaE.png

Liking how that's slowly sagging south each run
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#168
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:09 PM

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Slowly looking better and better.

 

1576670400-d1l79KRwQaE.png

 

Hahaha, just yesterday I was tempted to post a snarky response about how those "mean snowfall" maps have purple/pink/turquise shades but never for our region. I've at least now seen one with purple for mby


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#169
james1976

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:11 PM

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I like those blocking highs across S Canada
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#170
Beltrami Island

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:12 PM

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Grizz had a good response, but I will add one of my own since it was my post you're referring to. 

 

My comment/s come from experience over decades of following winter patterns for the Lwr MW/GL's/OHV and was not regarding exact track/s of future storms. It was based on Climo, seasonal norms, and signs-n-signals of an active pattern vs a lack of action. Just see maps from 2011-12 for the opposite of what I (and Tom later) posted and how they were indicating bad, bad news for snow lovers. When you see a lot more bare ground N and W in S Canada and the upper tier of states - worry! And that's not to say every good winter has to include those regions in deep snow cover, but knowing what we know about the forecast and expected "flavor" of this upcoming winter, the snow cover we see now makes sense and aligns very well with the anticipated progression. Again, this isn't about saying storms will "ride the southern boundary of current snow pack". Some may, and some may not. That's an unproven theory in my book.  But, a lack of good snow cover N and W of my region would be very concerning for the future of our DJFM, just as arid and hot conditions to my S and W in May of 1988 foretold an impending strong heat-wave/drought summer heading my way. Hope that helps.  

 

I can agree climo is the driver for snow cover advancement on average. 

It seems that ground snow coverage is mentioned as an influence on future storm tracks on the internet, but I have never seen any evidence of this or read a meteorologist with evidence of it. 

Storm tracks are determined by the air at elevations well above the influence of ground snow coverage, No?


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#171
Niko

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:16 PM

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Slowly looking better and better.

 

1576670400-d1l79KRwQaE.png

Will be looking better each day. ;)


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#172
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:16 PM

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No shortage of storms come mid month.  EC has this one right on schedule for the 17th,18th time frame.

 

1576605600-zpC5ZzwZcrY.png

1576670400-Dk5A1TwHBX8.png

 

Not trying to be a "buzz kill" wrt these much improved maps but verbatim they show a series of decent but not monstrous systems. Nothing close to what just transpired across the N tier. This is par normal for OHV/S Lakes as the typical path does not gain much latitude compared to the Plains or Upper MW systems. We do ok with flake stacking but it's a whole other hill climb to score a truly dynamic system around these parts. But, it's early and we have this season's trends going for us so let's just see where this goes? 


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#173
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:48 PM

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Hahaha, just yesterday I was tempted to post a snarky response about how those "mean snowfall" maps have purple/pink/turquise shades but never for our region. I've at least now seen one with purple for mby

I really like your region to take a nice hit for the Dec 13th storm.


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#174
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 01:02 PM

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Not trying to be a "buzz kill" wrt these much improved maps but verbatim they show a series of decent but not monstrous systems. Nothing close to what just transpired across the N tier. This is par normal for OHV/S Lakes as the typical path does not gain much latitude compared to the Plains or Upper MW systems. We do ok with flake stacking but it's a whole other hill climb to score a truly dynamic system around these parts. But, it's early and we have this season's trends going for us so let's just see where this goes? 

I don't know if any of these storms will bomb out in your area, but looking ahead (way further than I should be) Dec 29th -30th, that one I think will.  That would match up to a storm, that would have hit you in the Nov 11th, 12th time frame.


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#175
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 01:23 PM

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I can agree climo is the driver for snow cover advancement on average. 

It seems that ground snow coverage is mentioned as an influence on future storm tracks on the internet, but I have never seen any evidence of this or read a meteorologist with evidence of it. 

Storm tracks are determined by the air at elevations well above the influence of ground snow coverage, No?

 

Yes, storm path drivers are at Jet Stream levels. The best example of "snow cover impacts" on any storm tends to be later in winter when there's a significant and seriously cold "glacier" but the effects aren't really on the track as much as they are on P-type. In a marginal scenario, the existing "glacier" can exert enough influence on 2m temps to cause RN to be ZR for example. Now, to Grizz's point. Can a serious snow pack grease the skids for stronger arctic intrusions? Most certainly as the cold wave/s aren't mitigated nearly as much as when they have to go over hundreds of miles of bare ground. 


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#176
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 01:29 PM

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I don't know if any of these storms will bomb out in your area, but looking ahead (way further than I should be) Dec 29th -30th, that one I think will.  That would match up to a storm, that would have hit you in the Nov 11th, 12th time frame.

 

Thx bud. As said, considering it's just the early days of Met winter, I'm not looking for the bomb or bliz to make me a very happy camper. 1 or 2 snowfalls that stick around and help make the holidays seem more like the holidays will be a pleasant change from many recent Dec's. Ofc, my post banter with Tom was indeed hearkening to the rare (once in 50 yr occurrence per Skilling) mid-Dec bliz of 2000. But that's just tongue-in-cheek stuff tho. Just having some fun wit-it tbh  ;)  


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#177
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 December 2019 - 01:58 PM

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@Clinton, thank you for sharing. I need that 2+ line to move south to be in any real chance for snow. That said, combining the euro w/12z GFS op temps and GFS ens precipitation runs of the last 12 hours has me thinking I could score post Dec 10.

So, could it be wrong to assess the pattern at 61-64 days?
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#178
bud2380

Posted 03 December 2019 - 02:02 PM

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Yes, storm path drivers are at Jet Stream levels. The best example of "snow cover impacts" on any storm tends to be later in winter when there's a significant and seriously cold "glacier" but the effects aren't really on the track as much as they are on P-type. In a marginal scenario, the existing "glacier" can exert enough influence on 2m temps to cause RN to be ZR for example. Now, to Grizz's point. Can a serious snow pack grease the skids for stronger arctic intrusions? Most certainly as the cold wave/s aren't mitigated nearly as much as when they have to go over hundreds of miles of bare ground. 

 

Here is how I've always understood it, is that snow pack creates a baroclinic zone and storms are more likely to follow the track along the baroclinic zone.  

 

Below is the definition from the NWS that seems to support this.  I have heard meteorologists state this as well, and I'm pretty certain the NWS states it regularly in their AFDs.  

 

 

 

Baroclinic Zone

A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems


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#179
Hoosier

Posted 03 December 2019 - 02:32 PM

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Snowcover definitely enhances a cold airmasses ability to come south. You don't necessarily even have to have the snowcover right in your backyard (unless you are talking about nighttime radiational cooling) to realize the benefits as long as the snowpack is relatively close by upstream.

As far as snowcover influencing storm track, I think the argument gets overused and abused. I think it can keep temps lower than they otherwise would be but as far as altering the storm track, well, there's a lot more to it. The models do try to account for where they *think* the snowcover will be so in a situation where it snows more/farther south than modeled, then perhaps you could see an effect on the storm track after that, particularly if something is coming quick on the heels.
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#180
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 December 2019 - 02:35 PM

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Here is how I've always understood it, is that snow pack creates a baroclinic zone and storms are more likely to follow the track along the baroclinic zone.

Below is the definition from the NWS that seems to support this. I have heard meteorologists state this as well, and I'm pretty certain the NWS states it regularly in their AFDs.



Baroclinic Zone

A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems


I'd have to fully agree with this fact and jaster's as well.
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#181
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 December 2019 - 02:37 PM

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90F07AA6-F59D-45A8-8CB5-39ADBA617DCD.jpeg


Well, I asked for a 2" mean map....
Thanks! Looks like i got it.
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#182
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 03:54 PM

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@Clinton, thank you for sharing. I need that 2+ line to move south to be in any real chance for snow. That said, combining the euro w/12z GFS op temps and GFS ens precipitation runs of the last 12 hours has me thinking I could score post Dec 10.

So, could it be wrong to assess the pattern at 61-64 days?

I like Toms assessment of 48 day cycle.  If you don't get quite cold enough this time around you'll have another shot at it in late January.  I do believe this will produce nicely for you at least once.



#183
gabel23

Posted 03 December 2019 - 07:38 PM

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Any of you kc folks watch Gary’s winter special tonight?! It’s not up on the web page.

#184
Clinton

Posted 03 December 2019 - 07:45 PM

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Any of you kc folks watch Gary’s winter special tonight?! It’s not up on the web page.

Yes, it didn't offer much nationally.  He predicted 28in of snow for KC and below average temps.  He had no other specifics maybe his blog tomorrow will offer more.


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#185
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 03 December 2019 - 09:25 PM

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Man, if you’re in eastern Nebraska and want 384 hours of nothing, check out the 0Z GFS. Mild this week then turns cold and brown starting next week.

Attached Files


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#186
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2019 - 10:15 PM

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Here is how I've always understood it, is that snow pack creates a baroclinic zone and storms are more likely to follow the track along the baroclinic zone.  

 

Below is the definition from the NWS that seems to support this.  I have heard meteorologists state this as well, and I'm pretty certain the NWS states it regularly in their AFDs.  

 

 

 

Baroclinic Zone

A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems

 

My feeling on the baroclinic zone is that when you see one aligned with existing snow pack, it's hard to tell what was the chicken and which the egg? Case in point was just last winter when my county was literally the dividing line between haves and have nots for multiple storms from Feb onward. But, that boundary was due to multiple storms driven by other factors higher up in the atmosphere (Tom uses the 10 mb forecast maps to get an idea of where mean storm track will likely be setting up shop) that caused the thermal gradient to end up where it did. Once that snow pack boundary gets establish by multiple storms due to a favored storm track, then yes, a CF pushing south is more likely to go all the way to the edge of snow, then stop there, repeating the cycle if you will. But what came first, the snow pack boundary or the multiple storms driven by other factors that built it? I think it's a chicken or egg scenario, at least that's the best analogy that comes to mind. 



#187
GDR

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:29 PM

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Attached File  97BBE19F-0F2E-4FB3-B9EE-19232A92619A.jpeg   537.25KB   0 downloads
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#188
GDR

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:29 PM

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It’s not just Omaha! Lol
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#189
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 December 2019 - 12:05 AM

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I like Toms assessment of 48 day cycle. If you don't get quite cold enough this time around you'll have another shot at it in late January. I do believe this will produce nicely for you at least once.


I thought this coming cold blast would cycle or time well with the early Oct (6-8ish) blast, but I may be wrong.

#190
Tom

Posted 04 December 2019 - 02:15 AM

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Both GFS/Euro starting to show some run-to-run consistency for the early next week storm system.  00z Euro takes a more northerly track while the GFS is farther south.

 

06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Euro...

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png


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#191
Tom

Posted 04 December 2019 - 03:06 AM

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There are some long lead indicators that the last 10 days of the month should showcase a very active pattern with multiple storm systems around the major holidays (Christmas & NYE).  Using the BSR and LRC, both are suggesting storms to track across the central/southern Sub during these periods and both LR tools are honing in on the same dates.  Incredible to see that both LR tools mirror each other in similar ways to forecast out into the future.  Let me show you what I'm seeing...

 

Back on Nov 6th/7th there was a weak ULL near AZ that tried to phase with the N stream and produced a heavy precip event across OK/TX.  A similar "look" is being shown via the 00z GEFS whereby a system is forecast to track S of the Aleutian islands suggesting southerly track.  See animation below...

 

Both of these systems (Nov 6th/7th & Dec 9th-11th) "match up" with the dates in and around the Christmas holiday.

 

 

 

dwm500_wbgsm_20191106.gif

 

 

sfcplot_sm_20191106.gif

 

 

 

 

Second, the NYE/NYD storm is lining up with the Veteran's Day (LRC) storm and the BSR.  Both the GEFS/EPS have a strong indication that a storm will be sliding W/E across the Aleutian Islands suggesting to me there will be a blocking HP to the N which is almost an identical pattern that transpired during the Veteran's Day storm.  From what I'm seeing at this range, we should have an action packed finish to this month.  

 

 

sfcplot_sm_20191111.gif

 

 

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#192
Stacsh

Posted 04 December 2019 - 03:15 AM

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Really backed off on the cold....of course...but active

#193
Clinton

Posted 04 December 2019 - 03:47 AM

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Here is last nights EPS mean for the storm early next week.

 

1576044000-GSOs6UiJj9w.png


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#194
Clinton

Posted 04 December 2019 - 03:51 AM

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The EPS mean and ensembles

1576692000-ef18rS9dxtA.png

1576692000-AcZ5o8iBsmM.png

 

1576713600-mYe2Uxnrddc.png


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#195
Sparky

Posted 04 December 2019 - 05:25 AM

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Here is how I've always understood it, is that snow pack creates a baroclinic zone and storms are more likely to follow the track along the baroclinic zone.

Below is the definition from the NWS that seems to support this. I have heard meteorologists state this as well, and I'm pretty certain the NWS states it regularly in their AFDs.



Baroclinic Zone
A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems

Yes I also remember the NWS mentioning it a number of times in prior years. A sharp snow pack gradient sometimes creates a cool breeze in the adjacent snow free areas because of temperature/pressure differences like what occurs along shorelines and coasts (sea breeze) of major bodies of water.
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#196
westMJim

Posted 04 December 2019 - 06:02 AM

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It stayed above freezing over night here with a low of 33. There is still 1.5" of snow on the ground here. For today the average h/L at Grand Rapids is 39/27. The record high is 65 in 2012 and the record low is 6 in 1893. The most snow fall was 5.9" in 2009. At this time it is cloudy and 35 here at my house.



#197
Beltrami Island

Posted 04 December 2019 - 06:38 AM

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Baroclinic Zone

A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems

 

I always assumed this definition was referencing the atmosphere not anything to do with surface temperatures?

 

My feeling on the baroclinic zone is that when you see one aligned with existing snow pack, it's hard to tell what was the chicken and which the egg? Case in point was just last winter when my county was literally the dividing line between haves and have nots for multiple storms from Feb onward. But, that boundary was due to multiple storms driven by other factors higher up in the atmosphere (Tom uses the 10 mb forecast maps to get an idea of where mean storm track will likely be setting up shop) that caused the thermal gradient to end up where it did. Once that snow pack boundary gets establish by multiple storms due to a favored storm track, then yes, a CF pushing south is more likely to go all the way to the edge of snow, then stop there, repeating the cycle if you will. But what came first, the snow pack boundary or the multiple storms driven by other factors that built it? I think it's a chicken or egg scenario, at least that's the best analogy that comes to mind. 

 

In other words after the initial snow cover is established it is correlation vs causation.  I guess I am in the correlation camp without evidence otherwise


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#198
Niko

Posted 04 December 2019 - 07:00 AM

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Currently at 34F w flurries. More snowshowers arrive for Thursday. Next week features BN temps as that potent CF moves on through Tuesday and potential for a storm by that weekend.


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#199
Clinton

Posted 04 December 2019 - 08:09 AM

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12z GFS coming in much stronger with the storm early next week.


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#200
Hawkeye

Posted 04 December 2019 - 08:09 AM

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12z GFS with a little tease.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_24.png


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season snowfall: 13.1"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"