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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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EPS still shows potential... but there is a definite shift eastward on the 12Z run.   Not a good trend.

 

7-12 day period on the new 12Z run:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

And the same period from the 00Z run:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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EPS still shows potential... but there is a definite shift eastward on the 12Z run. Not a good trend.

 

7-12 day period on the new 12Z run:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

And the same period from the 00Z run:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

Not showing red...That’s all I care about.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like the EPS shows a retrogression signal late in the run though... definitely cold in the 12-15 day period.

 

Potential is the most important thing right now.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Major step back on the EPS. Very sad.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 weeks from now per the 12Z EPS:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-1day-

 

This seems to support the CFS solution. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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days 10-15 are quite good actually. Not sure what you are referring to

 

 

Next weekend. I was starting to get my hopes up for some nice foothills snow. But I would trade it for an arctic outbreak in 10-15 days.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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days 10-15 are quite good actually. Not sure what you are referring to

 

 

Definitely a step back in the 7-12 day period.   Not a good sign when its pushing things back.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just my two cents on this...People are getting too hung up on details right now.  Just looking at the big picture there is no reason to be discouraged.  In fact the 12z EPS is the best yet, but it just takes a bit longer to get to the coldest stuff.  It appears a delay may be caused by a trough digging into the NE which teleconnects very poorly to the GOA ridge.  The poor teleconnections means it will be short lived even if it actually happens.  The EPS and control both nail us after the short lived Eastern trough lifts out.  I have been making Jan 10 my target on this.  If we are in the ice box by then I will be more than happy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is about as good a mean as I have seen on the 850s on the EPS at this time range.

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-08727500-1577562674_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Snow for TT at least

 

 

The ECMWF shows basically no snow even for me over the next 10 days.   I don't get too interested until the ECMWF shows snow within 5 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Outside of the sky is falling trolling, I do find it kind of funny that when one bad run occurs we are quick to call it a "bad trend" but when a few good runs occur we don't call it a trend but "something to keep an eye on" and we act all cautious because it can change to bad at any moment.

 

This climate has made us all some jaded motherf*ckers.

 

It's kind of ridiculous because false alarms are much more rare now than they used to be.  This is the danger of using individual model runs alone.

 

At any rate why are we so jaded anyway?  We had some good stuff the last three winters now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's kind of ridiculous because false alarms are much more rare now than they used to be. This is the danger of using individual model runs alone.

 

At any rate why are we so jaded anyway? We had some good stuff the last three winters now.

I happened to peek at Jayas twitter feed. Even he is sad today.

 

We got a taste of real winter last February, now that’s all we want.

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While the 12z ECMWF is disappointing in showing a delay fro the arrival of the cold weather it presents a very real possibility of an AR to Arctic blast scenario. Those can be really fun. In a broader sense I think serious cold by Jan 10 is a good possibility. Out of the three big ensembles (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) the GFS continues to be the most enemic with the 500mb amplification over the GOA. This is probably in response to it having the weakest MJO signal of the 3. The GEM and ECMWF ensembles both advertise a strong Maritime Continent MJO emerging during week 2.

 

In summery we have a legit shot at the being the January of the century so far.

Yeah, I'm still thinking we got a good chance of an Arctic Blast around the middle of the month extending to the rest of January. I believe this was the time frame Phil mentioned we would have our best shot.

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FWIW... the ECMWF control run took a massive step backwards this morning and is worse than the GFS in the 10-15 day period.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

DK Fail.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Just my two cents on this...People are getting too hung up on details right now. Just looking at the big picture there is no reason to be discouraged. In fact the 12z EPS is the best yet, but it just takes a bit longer to get to the coldest stuff. It appears a delay may be caused by a trough digging into the NE which teleconnects very poorly to the GOA ridge. The poor teleconnections means it will be short lived even if it actually happens. The EPS and control both nail us after the short lived Eastern trough lifts out. I have been making Jan 10 my target on this. If we are in the ice box by then I will be more than happy.

Well said! Delayed but not denied.

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Up to 46F with a low of 32F. Much higher and we will have another positive departure.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Daffodils are indeed poking up here... early this year. They were almost ready to bloom when the cold hit in early February. They were buried for almost 6 weeks and emerged from the snow and promptly bloomed in mid-March.

 

20191228-123625.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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