December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[FroYoBro]

Everyone is playing their character perfectly on this forum today.

 

Good work people! 

[TT-SEA]

Everyone is playing their character perfectly on this forum today.

 

Good work people! 

 

I pointed out the beautiful weather this morning and some bad operational runs (and EPS control run) and also highlighted a very cold EPS in the 10-15 day period.  

 

I can multi-task!   

[TT-SEA]

I'd ban you for this post alone, but Dewey and Einstinjr would give me the business.

 

 

It means nothing of course... we can still have epic cold and snow.    It happened just 11 months ago and there were many signs of spring when that hammer dropped.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The central Cascades of Washington actually get more snow on the 12Z Euro than last nights run

[Timmy Supercell]

That’s kind of normal. PDX got to 54 on this day in 1949. As we all know, that winter was a dud.

 

Nov 1949 and 1995 were record warmest Novembers locally and neither of those winters were boring. lol

[snow_wizard]

This seems to support the CFS solution. 

 

The CFS has actually been pretty consistently great.  Any model has a certain degree of credibility if there is consistency involved.  The EPS control has also been good for many runs now.

[TT-SEA]

The CFS has actually been pretty consistently great. Any model has a certain degree of credibility if there is consistency involved. The EPS control has also been good for many runs now.

EPS control run was good... completely changed on the 12Z run. Now it's the worst of all the models. Probably best not to look.

[snow_wizard]

Up to 46F with a low of 32F. Much higher and we will have another positive departure.

 

I give Phil kudos for his warm December call.  I was never really sure about this month, but had great confidence about Jan.  Even this month has had some fairly chilly weather as of late though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I give Phil kudos for his warm December call.  I was never really sure about this month, but had great confidence about Jan.  Even this month has had some fairly chilly weather as of late though.

 

Maybe up your way, but not down here by our typical standards.

[BLI snowman]

Haven't heard Justin chime in lately. I am sure he would throw cold water on us too.

Have been pretty busy and been in the (toasty) Midwest. Thoughts are as follows:

 

1. It's going to be January.

2. 3rd-4th trough has never looked like anything interesting below 1000'.

3. That leads us to 7th-8th before next downstream response with potential for any arctic air. 11-13 days out simply doesn't warrant too much discussion.

4. Nothing has pointed to major blast potential, IMO. This doesn't seem to be the progression for it to happen and significant amplification is hard to come by. I sense January 2012 is perhaps the best case scenario and that was with a more solid background setup.

5. It's going to be January.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GEPS ensembles look good in the long range, days 12-16. Once again if the ridge can amplify a bit more then we get the goods. Lots of potential.

 

[Prairiedog]

The KING has spoken.

 

I said yesterday the warm nose would eat us alive.  LOL

[Omegaraptor]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe up your way, but not down here by our typical standards.

 

 

North Bend only went below freezing on two nights in December... SEA bottomed out at 30 one night.

 

SEA is at +3.6 for December... OLM is at +3.4 and BLI is +4.0

 

It has not been cold up here by any means.   One inversion day nothwithstanding.  

[Jesse]

I said yesterday the warm nose would eat us alive.  LOL

That’s way different than the sort of warm nose pattern you were talking about.

[Requiem]

Could get blustery on the 3rd— decently good signal for a powerful low pressure system of some sort.

[Timmy Supercell]

Could get blustery on the 3rd— decently good signal for a powerful low pressure system of some sort.

 

Weather of some sort will happen in some kind of manner next week

[Prairiedog]

The cold air seems to hang around in the Yukon and BC.  As long as it stays relatively "close" then we have a chance somewhere down the road.  That's the main piece.  There's no signal that I see that dislodges it in the near future. 

 

That’s way different than the sort of warm nose pattern you were talking about.

I know. My humor didn't fly very well. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS based teleconnection forecasts are still fantastic.  PNA drop to sustained -3 on the mean and the EPO now drops to -1.  No way it doesn't get cold with that.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The cold air seems to hang around in the Yukon and BC.  As long as it stays relatively "close" then we have a chance somewhere down the road.  That's the main piece.  There's no signal that I see that dislodges it in the near future. 

 

I know. My humor didn't fly very well. 

 

By Jan 10 it has a good chance of being here.  The EPS drives the coldest anoms down to southern BC by then.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW I am no less confident about a great Janaury than I was after last night's GFS.  Nothing has really changed.

[The Swamp]

Tim!  Did you just post up daffodils poking their heads out?

 

OMG dude.

 

You are what they say you are.

 

ha ha ha ha

 

love it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hadn't realized it had torched that badly in the Puget Sound area. Salem is only running a +1.6 departure on the month. 

[seattleweatherguy]

FWIW I am no less confident about a great Janaury than I was after last night's GFS.  Nothing has really changed.

 

What do you think about Feb any chances even if not like last year?

[TT-SEA]

Tim! Did you just post up daffodils poking their heads out?

 

OMG dude.

 

You are what they say you are.

 

ha ha ha ha

 

love it!

As I said... it means nothing.

 

But I have always posted a pic when they come up... can't break the streak now. You can take it lightheartedly or think its evil. But I certainly don't think its meaningful in terms of what is coming. Just an indication of how mild our climate is overall.

[MossMan]

A few more for your viewing pleasure. Almost a carbon copy of the current state of the forum!

[snow_wizard]

Hadn't realized it had torched that badly in the Puget Sound area. Salem is only running a +1.6 departure on the month. 

 

It really hasn't.  Maybe it's because he hasn't gotten any of the inversionary cold like most places have.  Most highs have been well below 50 this month.

[snow_wizard]

Nice trip down memory lane on those previous posts. 

[MossMan]

My plow, snow shovel, and full gas cans are waiting patently!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

On a positive note... I just went down to the post office in sunny North Bend in shorts and a t-shirt and was not cold at all. And could show off my golden Hawaiian tan. Feeling rejuvenated after a 2-week dose of natural vitamin D.

The fact that you are wearing shorts in January proves how much you need to move dude. Hilarious

[The Swamp]

A few more for your viewing pleasure. Almost a carbon copy of the current state of the forum!

 

My favorite is the prayer chain for Jim.

 

OMG.  Spit Jim Beam and Coke all over my Husky Hoodie.

[snow_wizard]

What do you think about Feb any chances even if not like last year?

 

I would normally say don't expect much from February given the ENSO state, but cold Febs do run in bunches.  On the other hand the Puget Sound Lowlands have averaged below 40 each of the last 3 Februaries so there is no real reason to expect another.  I suppose I would go for some possible carry over cold weather the first week, but mild for the rest of the month.  That could change of course.

[snow_wizard]

My plow, snow shovel, and full gas cans are waiting patently!

 

Your shed is so neat and tidy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

New Year's Day is looking really wet. 

[BLI snowman]

It really hasn't.  Maybe it's because he hasn't gotten any of the inversionary cold like most places have.  Most highs have been well below 50 this month.

 

This month has been total trash.

[snow_wizard]

This month has been total trash.

 

It has, but not really warm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The EPS based teleconnection forecasts are still fantastic. PNA drop to sustained -3 on the mean and the EPO now drops to -1. No way it doesn't get cold with that.

Wow, it starts trending even lower out towards day 15. Usually it gravitates toward 0 the longer it goes out. This is a strong signal for deep troughing in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

The fact that you are wearing shorts in January proves how much you need to move dude. Hilarious

Its December. And I often wear shorts in the winter here... unless it's cold and snowy or windy and raining. It's a no-brainer on a day like today. This is shorts and sweatshirt type of weather. The fact that I am comfortable wearing shorts in the winter would actually mean the opposite about moving.

 

But that being said.. I actually would love to live in Hawaii from November - February. Its paradise.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Your shed is so neat and tidy!

 

The opposite of my shed. Amazing how much stuff one accumulates over the years. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am out of town and found some service and scanned the forum real fast and wow what surprise to see Tim go straight to posting bullshitt about trends from 1 run and going to the store in shorts lol. I have been on here long enuff to know Tim is a good man and takes care of his family and that is paramount but on the forum he is a little kid. OH TIM!!! I do like him though.