December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was one of my favorite winters to date...It had everything that a weather enthusiast could ask for. Massive rain event in early November, massive snow event at the end of November, massive windstorm in December, a nice arctic/snow event in January...and a little bonus snow in February and March. Would love to relive that one.

 

It was a true classic PNW winter. Not an all-timer really, but a pretty complete winter season. Nice cold snap to end October too. 

[MossMan]

It was a true classic PNW winter. Not an all-timer really, but a pretty complete winter season. Nice cold snap to end October too.

Being stuck in the weather dull drums for over a month straight now is getting quite old.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Being stuck in the weather dull drums for over a month straight now is getting quite old.

 

For real. No sign of anything interesting in the models. I know you guys PDX north had a good event in December 2017, but down here we are coming off two straight winters where literally nothing happened until February. Starting to fear it could be 3 in a row. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is trending toward an active consolidated jet the week around Christmas, and then a much colder regime after New Year's. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Latest EURO weeklies keep us dry through December according to Brett Andersen's 1990s paintshop pro maps. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Latest EURO weeklies keep us dry through December according to Brett Andersen's 1990s paintshop pro maps.

 

I saw that, it was the same weeklies that I think you and Phil posted about, since they are run Mondays and Thursdays.

[El_Nina]

For real. No sign of anything interesting in the models. I know you guys PDX north had a good event in December 2017, but down here we are coming off two straight winters where literally nothing happened until February. Starting to fear it could be 3 in a row.

 

You mean the inch of snow plus a little freezing rain on Christmas eve? The timing was so special.

Also starting to think I'm one of the only single non married members.

[ShawniganLake]

For real. No sign of anything interesting in the models. I know you guys PDX north had a good event in December 2017, but down here we are coming off two straight winters where literally nothing happened until February. Starting to fear it could be 3 in a row.

We had almost a foot on the ground Christmas morning in 2017. Most of that fell on the 19th though, when we had a big fall of heavy wet snow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

For real. No sign of anything interesting in the models. I know you guys PDX north had a good event in December 2017, but down here we are coming off two straight winters where literally nothing happened until February. Starting to fear it could be 3 in a row.

Yeah Dec-Jan has been dudsville since 2017. At some point you would think it would flip. Then again, our access to Arctic air continues to be further and further cut off every year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You mean the inch of snow plus a little freezing rain on Christmas eve? The timing was so special.

Also starting to think I'm one of the only single non married members.

You will outlive the rest of us. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had almost a foot on the ground Christmas morning in 2017. Most of that fell on the 19th though, when we had a big fall of heavy wet snow.

 

Even at 1600' here we only had a dusting of snow, then a glaze of ice followed by 33 degree rain. 

 

That winter was a total lost cause through about mid-February. The back half of February 2018 was really good though. We actually got colder with that stretch than any point during February 2019. We ended up with 18.3" of snow in February 2018, and then had about a foot of snow in late March. 

[Deweydog]

EPS.

[El_Nina]

You will outlive the rest of us.

 

Didn't say there weren't any in my life though

Can't do anything right ;)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Didn't say there weren't any in my life though

Can't do anything right ;)

 

Why you dog.

[El_Nina]

Why you dog.

Might switch to those, soon. At this point

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Might switch to those, soon. At this point

I feel like this board is a sitcom sometimes. I love it.

[El_Nina]

I feel like this board is a sitcom sometimes. I love it.

I really do too. This is a great place.

[Phil]

Our summer water supply depends on mountain snowpack. Not to mention winter sports, and of course the overall health of the ecosystem.

 

Aren’t you the one who always used to harp on about how rain was an ecological payday or whatever. Or was that just made up drivel meant to annoy Tim?

I was talking about rain in the summer, when it matters.

 

Nothing dries out in the winter up there. At least not completely/for long.

[Phil]

The orchardists and farmers are totally dependent on irrigation water. If we truly had a mountain snow drought, it would be a huge economic disaster for the state and especially for my area. Washington exports fruit all over the world. We are by far the #1 producer of apples in the U.S. (60% of all apples eaten in the U.S. are from Washington) and by far the #1 producer of pears, also 60% of all pears eaten in the U.S.

 

Agriculture accounts for $51 billion – or 13 percent - of Washington’s yearly economic activity

 

160,000 Washington jobs are tied to agriculture – more than Microsoft and Boeing combined

 

Washington state produces more than 300 different crops – second only to California

 

The number of wineries in Washington state has tripled over the past decade

 

State leaders must ensure agricultural productivity is a priority and considered equally with other key industries when setting tax, regulatory and economic policy

In 2014, the state exported $16 billion worth of food and agricultural products to people around the world

 

So yeah, mountain snow is pretty important.

 

I am NOT trying to put you down, Phil. Just trying to educate you. I certainly would not expect you to automatically know these things since you dont live here.

That’s very interesting information, thanks. I wasn’t aware of most of that.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS ensembles are improving in the long range

[snow_wizard]

GFS ensembles are improving in the long range

 

No doubt.  The end of the 0z EPS was better too.  The PNA and EPO forecasts based on the 6z GEFS run were pretty good.  While I hate the current pattern I still like our prospects for this winter.

[Jesse]

I was talking about rain in the summer, when it matters.

 

Nothing dries out in the winter up there. At least not completely/for long.

This sounds pretty east coast centric. We don’t generally get dependable rain in the summer. Dry winters with meager snowpack in the mountains can lead to very dry summers, though.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Good to see improvements in the long range ensembles, but for the last month it seems like the models are always showing a more active pattern, and then as the time gets closer, its splitsville. MWS says that the system next week is screaming splitflow. Also says after that the jet gets more consolidated, but I will believe it when I see it.

I get wanting more blocking of you live west of the Cascades, but we really need mountain snow soon. And I dont need blocking for snow, normal weather is good enough.

[Phil]

This sounds pretty east coast centric. We don’t generally get dependable rain in the summer. Dry winters with meager snowpack in the mountains can lead to very dry summers, though.

Maybe, but everything dries out like a tinderbox here in the winter. It’s the opposite of sopping-wet summer. And we don’t combust.

 

FWIW, for the PNW as a whole there’s no correlation between winter precipitation and the subsequent summers’ precipitation, and in the satellite era it’s actually a weak inverse correlation, though not statistically significant.

[MossMan]

I have a gut feeling that today will be the day that the models take a turn for the better and that hopefully we at least return to normal weather for the second half of the month.

[Timmy]

I have a gut feeling that today will be the day that the models take a turn for the better and that hopefully we at least return to normal weather for the second half of the month.

December 2008

[Jesse]

Maybe, but everything dries out like a tinderbox here in the winter. It’s the opposite of sopping-wet summer. And we don’t combust.

 

FWIW, for the PNW as a whole there’s no correlation between winter precipitation and the subsequent summers’ precipitation, and in the satellite era it’s actually a weak inverse correlation, though not statistically significant.

No one is talking about correlation between winter precipitation and subsequent summers precipitation. We are talking about mountain snowpack that builds up in the cold season then gradually melts over the warm season. That makes up the majority of our summer water supply and is extremely important to our region.

 

It really seems like this is something you would have picked up on at some point in your 8-10 years of hanging out on western weather forums.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Maybe, but everything dries out like a tinderbox here in the winter. It’s the opposite of sopping-wet summer. And we don’t combust.

 

FWIW, for the PNW as a whole there’s no correlation between winter precipitation and the subsequent summers’ precipitation, and in the satellite era it’s actually a weak inverse correlation, though not statistically significant.

I dont doubt that there is no correlation, but even a wet summer here us still pretty D**n dry, especially East of the Cascades, where we can go for 3 to 5 months with less than an inch of rain during the Sunmer. And humidities are also much kess here as you know.

[Phil]

Good to see improvements in the long range ensembles, but for the last month it seems like the models are always showing a more active pattern, and then as the time gets closer, its splitsville. MWS says that the system next week is screaming splitflow. Also says after that the jet gets more consolidated, but I will believe it when Insee it.

 

I get wanting more blocking of you live west of the Cascades, but we really need mountain snow soon. And I dont need blocking for snow, normal weather is good enough.

There’s a reason things “trend” splitty on approach in a split flow regime. If that’s to change for real, something has to *force* a reorganization of the macroscale boundary state said “split flow” regime is operating within.

 

A number of ways for that to happen, but you’ll know it when you see it. IE: Models won’t head-fake to zonal flow in the clown range and push it back..it will show up in the medium range and move up in timing.

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah Dec-Jan has been dudsville since 2017. At some point you would think it would flip. Then again, our access to Arctic air continues to be further and further cut off every year.

Safe to say the first half of December is a desiccated torching writeoff. Things are still looking grim for mountain snow because whatever little “storms” hit us will probably be too warm to snow at the ski resort level.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

There’s a reason things “trend” splitty on approach in a split flow regime. If that’s to change for real, something has to *force* a reorganization of the macroscale boundary state said “split flow” regime is operating within.

 

A number of ways for that to happen, but you’ll know it when you see it. IE: Models won’t head-fake to zonal flow in the clown range and push it back..it will show up in the medium range and move up in timing.

Actually been meaning to ask you about that.  What kind of a "force" could change the background state that we are in, and is there a way to forecast that?

[Jesse]

Mostly cloudy and 37 this morning.

[Omegaraptor]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-most-boring-late-fall-in-years.html?m=1

 

New post on how boring this November has been and it’s going to extend into December.

 

“You want interesting weather, head to California” yeah that’s been excellent advice for the past year. I may have to regrettably become a Californian in the future because the moon gets more interesting weather than Washington County.

[ShawniganLake]

Is that an actual storm heading for Washington state on the 12z gfs. Only 9 days away

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah that's probably gonna split flow and end up hitting CA if it hits anything at all.

 

Can't trust a storm 9 days out in this regime.

[Jesse]

I like where 12Z GFS goes. Would be really nice to break out of the boring regime of the last five weeks.

[Front Ranger]

It's like everyone has been on a vacation with Tim, for the past month.

[Omegaraptor]

Safe to say we’re probably going to be waiting another year for a major windstorm.

[Requiem]

Safe to say we’re probably going to be waiting another year for a major windstorm.

 

Too early to say at this point, but trust me, that's up there on my list of wants.

[Christensen87]

That windstorm on the 14th would be epic. Models have been showing something interesting happening in general that weekend, so I hope this is the start of a good storm brewing. Need some excitement up in here!