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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

december 2019 PNW northwest winter snow cold
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#101
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:35 AM

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It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational.  And it has been consistent with the timing of that too.


I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature.

#102
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:36 AM

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RIP Winter 2019-2020.

 

We're less than 12 hours into Meteorological Winter and we're making statements like this.  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 36.75" (102%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 1
03/17, 03/--
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#103
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:36 AM

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What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.

 

 

It was terrible during winter... ski season was non-existent.

 

But I think there was lots of mountain snow very late in the season... like into April.  


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#104
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:37 AM

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Finished with about 0.4" here on the bark and grass. Looks like we were among the few places to get measurable snow.

 

Feb 2019 has been atoned.


Low. Solar.


#105
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:37 AM

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Christmas morning 2016...  :)

 

15625918_1189594527775420_37694496720667

 

That's a really good photo!!


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 36.75" (102%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 1
03/17, 03/--
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#106
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:40 AM

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EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards.  

 

This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-63464

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-strea


  • Brian_in_Leavenworth and DJ Droppin like this

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#107
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:57 AM

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November 2019 rainfall statistics:

 

Blythe, CA (about 20 miles west of Farmboy): 1.80" 

Phoenix (PHX): 1.55"

Portland (PDX): 1.52"

Hillsboro: 1.16"


  • nwsnow, Timmy_Supercell, Frontal Snowsquall and 1 other like this
No rain here until Hour 258.

#108
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 11:58 AM

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AO tends to be kind of meaningless for the west. Mixed results with that signal.


That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO).

So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. ;)
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#109
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:00 PM

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Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow.   

 

A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes.    This run does not even tease us.    

 

I like where it's going at the end.


Low. Solar.


#110
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:01 PM

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The vast majority of “correlations” in wx/climate are in fact nonlinear/varying. Yet we’re always looking for those simple, linear, 1-to-1 linear correlations.

Unfortunately, those are rare and almost always short lived (geologically) and/or state-dependent.
  • Timmy_Supercell likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#111
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:01 PM

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EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards.  

 

This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-63464

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-strea

The only difference that I see is that the EPS is a bit quicker, consistent with the timing of previous EPS runs.


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#112
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:04 PM

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Feb 2019 has been atoned.


He got smoked by Failshington County, there Mr. Knifetwister.
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#113
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:05 PM

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I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature.


Correct. The sheer number of permutations blended into the mean statistically renders this so.
  • Jesse likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#114
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:05 PM

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That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO).

So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. ;)

 

Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good...


Low. Solar.


#115
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:07 PM

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I like where it's going at the end.


Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#116
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:12 PM

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Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run.

 

Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement.


Low. Solar.


#117
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:12 PM

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Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good...


I guess that depends on your subjective preferences. ;)

If you want a firehose jet and lots of precip like Tim (or his doppelgänger) then yeah a +PNA would be what delivers that (extended East-Asian jet/+MT probably over warm pool exhaust).
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#118
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:14 PM

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I like where it's going at the end.


😂
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#119
Shawn

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:16 PM

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1.33" of rain for the month of November in SW Scappoose


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#120
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:20 PM

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Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement.


Hmm. I don’t see the first two..looks like meager RWD to me. The NAM is preparing to flip, but that wouldn’t be in the range of the Euro or its ensembles for the most part.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#121
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:21 PM

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Or I could be full of it. That’s just my interpretation..not easy to extrapolate these things beyond 5 days.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#122
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:22 PM

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Chilly but dry day up here so far. I’m a few miles north from my house at a dog agility competition so I don’t have a temp but the clouds definitely kept the chill in. Have we ever had a prolonged split flow hell pattern happen around this time of the year and still get arctic nailed later in the season? I don’t recall one in my lifetime. As much as I do not want to agree with Phil and I don’t agree with his assessment of not needing a -PNA for the “goodies” out here...However I will say this sure seems like we are currently in an El Niño state. Sure hope that fades quickly.

#123
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:28 PM

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What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.


It was terrible
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#124
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:28 PM

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After the historically dry November a mild wetter December is the best sign possible for January. A continuation of cool and dry would probably signal a 76-77 redux. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#125
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:32 PM

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It was terrible during winter... ski season was non-existent.

But I think there was lots of mountain snow very late in the season... like into April.


I remember that season. Basically we got dumped on in Spring with snow. To late for most people.
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#126
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:32 PM

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What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.

 

https://www.timberli...rical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81


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No rain here until Hour 258.

#127
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:33 PM

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Raining pretty hard out there, first rainfall of December and first measurable rainfall since 11/26. Was a nice cold snap we had, light, non-accumulating snow on 11/26 and 12/1. Few nights in the mid 20s. Looking forward to a more active wetter pattern though.
Warm Season Stats (Since 4/1) Rainfall-0.0” (80+) days-0 (85+) days-0 (90+) days-0
Monthly stats Rainfall-0.0”

#128
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:35 PM

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November ended with 1.83” of rainfall, drier than September (2.84”) and October (4.04”). Barely wetter than August, which had 1.57” of rainfall. We’re at 23.39” of rainfall for the year.
Warm Season Stats (Since 4/1) Rainfall-0.0” (80+) days-0 (85+) days-0 (90+) days-0
Monthly stats Rainfall-0.0”

#129
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:39 PM

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https://www.timberli...rical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81

 

Some interesting data there. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#130
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:47 PM

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Yeah, we’re f*cked.
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#131
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:48 PM

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Some yellow radar echoes over my area... result on the ground is a few fat snowflakes falling and 39 degrees.   

 

The frost that had stayed in the shade in the backyard all week has finally disappeared. 


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#132
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:51 PM

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I think there is some opportunity in late December/January, but the deck is definitely stacked against us. 


  • Timmy_Supercell likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#133
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 December 2019 - 12:53 PM

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I think there is some opportunity in late December/January, but the deck is definitely stacked against us.


Cold October screwed us

#134
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:00 PM

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https://www.timberli...rical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81

 

I remember '14-'15  :lol:

 

Well at least in the Fall it rained and we had endless windstorms regionally.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 36.75" (102%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 1
03/17, 03/--
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#135
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:02 PM

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Cold October screwed us


It’s literally the first day of winter.

We may be praising the cold October as being a great sign of things to come in several weeks.

#136
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:03 PM

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It’s literally the first day of winter.


And it’s already over. :(
No rain here until Hour 258.

#137
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:03 PM

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It’s literally the first day of winter.

 

I think she was joking. 


  • Timmy_Supercell likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#138
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:04 PM

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12z CFS running. Out to hour 408.

 

500h_anom.na.png


  • iFred likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#139
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:04 PM

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https://www.timberli...rical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81

 

Does Crater Lake have a site similar to this?


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 36.75" (102%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 1
03/17, 03/--
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#140
nwsnow

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:05 PM

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I'm not sure what the actual precip totals were but I'm gonna hand the NAM the win over the GFS as far as that goes. GFS was way too dry with this and the NAM actually nailed all the juicy precip rates coming up the coast range and western half of the metro. 

 

Pretty ridiculous how much more wet the 00z NAM is when compared to the 00z GFS given that this is just a few hours away now.

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

Pretty ridiculous how much more wet the 00z NAM is when compared to the 00z GFS given that this is just a few hours away now.

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 



#141
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:05 PM

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I think she was joking.


Maybe I was too.

😱

In the meantime I will keep working to actively undermine my own credibility so no one will ever be quite sure.
  • Jginmartini likes this

#142
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:08 PM

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I'm not sure what the actual precip totals were but I'm gonna hand the NAM the win over the GFS as far as that goes. GFS was way too dry with this and the NAM actually nailed all the juicy precip rates coming up the coast range and western half of the metro. 

 

Precip at SLE, EUG, HIO, PDX was anywhere from 0.07"-0.16"... I would say the GFS was spot on if not a little too wet. 


  • Timmy_Supercell likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#143
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:10 PM

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Some western troughing returns around the 20th.

500h_anom.na.png


  • iFred and MossMan like this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#144
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:15 PM

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Courtesy of Brian Schmidt. Very sobering list. 

 

78654688_2863403907011321_19679228378595


  • Timmy_Supercell, Frontal Snowsquall and Omegaraptor like this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#145
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:19 PM

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I'm not sure what the actual precip totals were but I'm gonna hand the NAM the win over the GFS as far as that goes. GFS was way too dry with this and the NAM actually nailed all the juicy precip rates coming up the coast range and western half of the metro. 

 

Only .03 here so far.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#146
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:21 PM

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Some western troughing returns around the 20th.
500h_anom.na.png


😱
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#147
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:22 PM

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2015-16 climo would suggest this is a possibility.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#148
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:23 PM

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😂


Mission accomplished.

Low. Solar.


#149
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:29 PM

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EPS looks much more zonal, with lower heights than the operational Euro in the 9-10 day period.

#150
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2019 - 01:32 PM

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Mission accomplished.


Attached File  27B05C1D-B522-468B-92B8-E727585C9293.png   146.47KB   0 downloads
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