December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Rain during the week...Great! Rain on the weekend when you need to get stuff done out around the house and property is annoying. Just my opinion. You and Jesse are starting to mold into one person.

 

Rain can often correspond with higher temperatures during this time of the year. The stress of knowing what to root for!

[Jesse]

Nice looking zonal pattern showing up at hour 144 of the Euro.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice looking zonal pattern showing up at hour 144 of the Euro.

There goes winter. Can’t get cold once that has happened.

[jakeinthevalley]

Is your house on fire, Clark?

Is Rusty still in the Navy?

[Deweydog]

Coexist.

[Winterdog]

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking zonal pattern showing up at hour 144 of the Euro.

 

This looks like it could be the reset.  After that it gets blocky again and the models like the idea of it being -PNA.

[snow_wizard]

You know the winter is in a world of hurt when we start cheering a zonal flow showing up inside of a week. What has happened to us?

 

It's actually progressing fine.

[ShawniganLake]

That’s another impressive shot of arctic air into the center of the continent in Mid December

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Anyone? I'd like to fix this issue.

 

Get a bucket of warm water and some rock salt. Dissolve as much salt as the water will hold. Drop the offending electronics in the bucket. Guaranteed to stop the timezone issue you are having. Permanently.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is trying to shove a low under the offshore ridge at day 10.  Potential for good things there.  I'm still betting things come together very nicely later this month.

[ShawniganLake]

Anyone? I'd like to fix this issue.

What brand is it?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

There goes winter. Can’t get cold once that has happened.

 

If the snow level is 3,000 feet or lower, I'll take the zonal flow with no complaints.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That’s another impressive shot of arctic air into the center of the continent in Mid December

Sliding east. Like usual.

[Deweydog]

I don’t think anything is fully reset until you pull the game cartridge out and blow across it really hard.

[ShawniganLake]

I don’t think anything is fully reset until you pull the game cartridge out and blow across it really hard.

Do we need a windstorm?

[snow_wizard]

Sliding east. Like usual.

 

Our time will come.  The ball is going to shift to our court during week two.

[snow_wizard]

There goes winter. Can’t get cold once that has happened.

 

It's pretty obvious that any kind of zonal flow pattern is going to be very short lived until further notice.  It looks like we will have a window for some pretty good mountain snows during that brief period.

[ShawniganLake]

Our time will come. The ball is going to shift to our court during week two.

I’d be pretty shocked if we saw arctic air in the next 2 weeks but I guess we’ll see

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Our time will come. The ball is going to shift to our court during week two.

I admire your optimism Jim.

[snow_wizard]

I’d be pretty shocked if we saw arctic air in the next 2 weeks but I guess we’ll see

 

I'm not sure if it will be Arctic that soon, but the pieces should be much closer to being in the right places.

[snow_wizard]

I admire your optimism Jim.

 

There's no reason not to be.  The table is set for a good winter.

[MossMan]

I don’t think anything is fully reset until you pull the game cartridge out and blow across it really hard.

The hardships we faced in the 80’s as kids...

[Deweydog]

The hardships we faced in the 80’s as kids...

I suspect that reference was lost on a lot of people here. That and a bunch of really cold cold snaps that are now entirely impossible!

[AbbyJr]

There's no reason not to be.  The table is set for a good winter.

What makes you think that? What pieces are in place or what reason do you have to believe the pieces will fall into place if they haven't already?

[umadbro]

Good weather forum help and advice

[Phil]

It’s all we’ve got. There’s a very good chance the coldest air masses I’ll have experienced here during my lifetime were when I was a virgin like Phil.

Sucks to suck, doesn’t it?

[Phil]

I'm having an issue with my weather station.

 

It's set to East coast time. The manual says when it's linked to my WiFi it will automatically change to that time zone. I've messed with all the settings you can for that and it won't set to Pacific time.

 

Any ideas?

What weather station do you have?

[Phil]

What makes you think that? What pieces are in place or what reason do you have to believe the pieces will fall into place if they haven't already?

Kold Oktobrrrr.

[Timmy]

06z was nice and agrees with the gefs for late in the run for a favorable cold pattern

[BLI snowman]

Kold Oktobrrrr.

If the mountains get any snow we are solidly BONED.

[Phil]

Finally seeing indications that the +IOD (W-IO forcing) component of the tropical background state will begin yielding to the WPAC component as we approach the New Year. Both have been present, but the former has been dominant over the latter since late August.

 

This should be marked by a transition to more polar blocking and a colder North American regime overall, possibly starting at the inception of momentum losses/easing of the +EAMT late this month.

 

If a SSW occurs late this month (1 in 3 chance, maybe?) then it gets super interesting. If not, it still gets more interesting than it is now (the WPAC-based forcing is rough for the West during the summer..not the winter). Either way, in the West, December is probably going to be the most “blah” month of the winter in terms of properly-oriented wave amplification. Late starter.

[Phil]

Only thing that would “bone” the winter for real (in Justin’s words) is if the wave attack fails so spectacularly that the PV is able to rebound rapidly into a baroclinic structure/vertically stack, warming/lowering the tropical tropopause (which obviously increases static stability/weakens the MJO).

 

IE: The monthly ECMWF. In which case it’s back to a super +TNH/+NAO/NE-Canada vortex. Less likely, but non-zero chance.

[Phil]

Still will be hard pressed to sustain a consolidated jet into the PNW region after this mid-December hiccup. But with time, the seasonal cycle and natural evolution of the background boundary states *should* gradually erode the dry regime in F/M/A.

[Jesse]

Approaching a half inch of rain since last evening here. I’d say this system has overperformed a bit so far.

[TT-SEA]

Nice timing... rained all night and now its moving out right before daylight.

 

.30 up here overnight

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS looked similar to previous runs in the 10-15 day period...

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow maybe some Mountain snow coming soon. Would be nice..

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.03” before midnight...another 0.36” since midnight. That puts us at 0.51” for December.

With 0.36” of rain today...this is also our wettest day since 10/22.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow maybe some Mountain snow coming soon. Would be nice..

Hopefully things keep trending the right direction on the 12z. Would be nice to get the resorts open and have some more interesting weather to track.