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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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This place was BUZZING right now 11 years ago.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

547 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2008

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-

SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-

HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-

EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-

NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-

WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-

547 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2008

 

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

 

A MAJOR CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEAR THE END OF

THIS WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER

THE WEEKEND.

 

THE TRANSITION WILL GET UNDERWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND

ITS UPPER TROUGH SWING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL

MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER THE WEEKEND.

 

WHAT WILL BEGIN AS A COLD RAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS OF WASHINGTON FRIDAY

MAY MIX WITH SOME WET SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT

THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO

ACCUMULATE AT SEA LEVEL. HOWEVER...HIGHER HILLTOPS MAY SEE SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING.

 

WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AT LEAST DURING

THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE

IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL WORK IT'S

WAY DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. PEOPLE SHOULD BE READY FOR WEATHER

THAT IS COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS...BURST OUTDOOR PIPES...AND

ENDANGER PETS.

 

THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND

OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE

STILL UNCERTAIN BUT A WINTER STORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED LATER

THIS WEEK. CHECK WITH THE NORTHWEST WEATHER AND AVALANCHE CENTER

BEFORE VENTURING INTO THE BACKCOUNTRY.

 

WESTERN WASHINGTON RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS SITUATION

UNFOLDS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISITING OUR WEB PAGE

AT WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE (ALL LOWERCASE).

DAMICO/MCDONNAL

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The Canadian doesn't agree and the discrepancies begin at just Day 4 to 4.5. The biggest difference between the GEM and GFS through Day 6 is the PV on the GFS is shunted much further southwest into Northwest Territories and the GEM has it in the high Arctic of Nunavut. The PV is a huge mechanical force on the overall pattern over Western Canada to the Aleutians.

 

Day 6

00z GFS

500h_anom.na.png

 

 

00z GEM

500h_anom.na.png

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The Canadian doesn't agree and the discrepancies begin at just Day 4 to 4.5. The biggest difference between the GEM and GFS through Day 6 is the PV on the GFS is shunted much further southwest into Northwest Territories and the GEM has it in the high Arctic of Nunavut. The PV is a huge mechanical force on the overall pattern over Western Canada to the Aleutians.

 

Day 6

 

00z GFS

 

 

 

00z GEM

 

 

GEM is more in line with today's 12Z Euro, unfortunately.

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The December Dud.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm going to Hawaii in March. I still hope it's around by then.

Looks HOTT around Cabo where I will be going in February! Planning on doing a little jetsking out in that warm water!
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Was validating to follow Dewey's link and see I predicted a mild December, and warmer than November. I went a little warm for November, but did caution people they were going a to warm, and PDX did end up with a positive departure. Possibly due to the warmth from the manure piles generated by their copious homeless population. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Was validating to follow Dewey's link and see I predicted a mild December, and warmer than November. I went a little warm for November, but did caution people they were going a to warm, and PDX did end up with a positive departure.

November was essentially average.

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Too bad we are wasting all of the low sun angles and low solar right now.

 

Historically January has really produced. Just been a few decades. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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November was essentially average.

 

I had the right idea. The rest of you were like the Israelites wandering around the Sinai Peninsula for 40 years. You better hope I am right, I did say January will be below average. I still think we have a chance. In fact, this may be playing out just the way we want it too. If not...It's going to be one hell of a dud!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I had the right idea. The rest of you were like the Israelites wandering around the Sinai Peninsula for 40 years. You better hope I am right, I did say January will be below average. I still think we have a chance. In fact, this may be playing out just the way we want it too. If not...It's going to be one hell of a dud!

I don’t usually drink on Monday night’s. Special occasion?

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I don’t usually drink on Monday night’s. Special occasion?

 

I have not consumed strong drink since June 2017.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Was validating to follow Dewey's link and see I predicted a mild December, and warmer than November. I went a little warm for November, but did caution people they were going a to warm, and PDX did end up with a positive departure. Possibly due to the warmth from the manure piles generated by their copious homeless population.

 

The real cause for the UHI...

E26AF10D-2174-435C-86D4-9B9D4D9F38CD.jpeg

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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My friend in Quatar got more rain than I have had in six weeks. 

 

78546828_1117619565242866_65493740088050

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Three weeks in January 2018 beg to differ.

Meh, half miss. Stratwarm waited until late Jan and delivered the 4th coldest 850mb temps ever observed in the month of Feb.

 

Until you make your own LR forecasts, you’ve forfeited your right to criticize mine. :)

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The Canadian doesn't agree and the discrepancies begin at just Day 4 to 4.5. The biggest difference between the GEM and GFS through Day 6 is the PV on the GFS is shunted much further southwest into Northwest Territories and the GEM has it in the high Arctic of Nunavut. The PV is a huge mechanical force on the overall pattern over Western Canada to the Aleutians.

 

Day 6

00z GFS

500h_anom.na.png

 

 

00z GEM

500h_anom.na.png

Live look at Justin.

 

OoPPvCh.gif

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00z GEFS forecast Teleconnection Indices

 

Yeah PNA tanks, but EPO is not cooperating. Nonetheless I am cautiously optimistic.

 

4indices.png

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 39 minutes

00z GEFS in 7 hours 54 minutes

00z EPS in 10 hours 24 minutes

 

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

⛄

or Raging Jet and Windstorms!!!! ☔ ☔

Unfortunately, I don't see the EPO tanking until early January. In the meantime, let's get some windstorms up in here!

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Meh, half miss. Stratwarm waited until late Jan and delivered the 4th coldest 850mb temps ever observed in the month of Feb.

 

Until you make your own LR forecasts, you’ve forfeited your right to criticize mine. :)

Thanksgiving.

 

MLK.

 

Why did the chicken cross the road.

 

Pull my finger.

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12/9/19 ...ENSO Update...
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
December 9 2019
 
____ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
 
*Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near to above average across much of the Pacific Ocean.
 
*The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with ENSO-neutral.
 
ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-2020 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (~60-65% chance).

Rob's Notes: For the first time since roughly August an increase was noted in the Tri-Monthly ONI index. A cooling of SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) were noted across the central and portions of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Recently there has been a significant surge of cold water off South America. The daily SST values shows a downturn across the entire Pacific.
 
Last weeks SST Departures:
Niño 4: +0.8ºC
Niño 3.4: +0.4ºC
Niño 3: +0.4ºC
Niño 1+2: -0.4ºC
 
**Latest weekly/This weeks SST Departures:
Niño 4: +0.9ºC
Niño 3.4: +0.3ºC
Niño 3: +0.2ºC
Niño 1+2: +0.1ºC
 
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): SON (September-October-November) +0.3ºC.
*Previous ONI: ASO (August-September-October) +0.1ºC.
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