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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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Dry is always fine if it's going to actually be chilly. If it's just more 45+ stuff then I'll always take the precip.

 

I wouldn't care if we didn't hit freezing the rest of the month if it meant we got a solid mountain snowpack going, and even approached average in terms of rainfall.

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I wouldn't care if we didn't hit freezing the rest of the month if it meant we got a solid mountain snowpack going, and even approached average in terms of rainfall.

 

Yeah, I agree. And that sort of reset progression would very likely spell better things for us in January than continued mild split flow would.

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I wouldn't care if we didn't hit freezing the rest of the month if it meant we got a solid mountain snowpack going, and even approached average in terms of rainfall.

:lol:

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Yeah, I agree. And that sort of reset progression would very likely spell better things for us in January than continued mild split flow would.

Was thinking the same thing. Would likely bode a lot better for later on.

 

Phil tells us that split flow and a wimpy northern jet is our one way ticket to snow and cold nirvana, though.

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Yeah, I agree. And that sort of reset progression would very likely spell better things for us in January than continued mild split flow would.

The word “reset” is used frequently around here but nothing is actually resetting. Makes no sense. And what any given pattern out there “leads to” is dependent on forcings external to the NPAC.

 

The models never actually dropped the split streams/subtropical jet. Heck, were split streams back in Sep/Oct too..but thanks to seasonality, the effects were a bit different around there.

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The word “reset” is used frequently around here but nothing is actually resetting. Makes no sense. And what any given pattern out there “leads to” is dependent on forcings external to the NPAC.

 

The models never actually dropped the split streams/subtropical jet. Heck, were split streams back in Sep/Oct too..but thanks to seasonality, the effects were a bit different around there.

 

It's obviously used in relative terms. Pretty sure the weather never actually magically just "resets", everything is a measured step-by-step progression.

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Overall though, despite day 10, about the same amount as snow as last nights run.

 

0Z:

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

12Z

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

Yeah, basically the same as previous runs. The warmest frame of the run at day 10 aside, there is actually a good mountain snow pattern in place for much of the run. Especially in the mid range.

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Yeah, basically the same as previous runs. The warmest frame of the run at day 10 aside, there is actually a good mountain snow pattern in place for much of the run. Especially in the mid range.

Majority of the models look on board for a decent amount of rain and mountain snow over the next 7-10 days. Everything looks good IMO.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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So now blowtorch+wet > cool+dry, amirite?

It’s not a blowtorch run, and it actually has a decent mountain snow pattern. Of course some people will focus on the warmest frame of the run, even if it’s at the very end.

 

The last thing we need here is another Tim. Not sure why you have decided to take up that mantle lately.

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I don't believe the snow totals on the 12Z ECMWF.

 

The pattern does not look that good for mountain snow overall... and not just at day 10.

 

Jesse censorship in full force of course.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And it looks like more moisture coming ashore at that hour into Washington at least, though not terribly cold.  

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Yeah definitely a warm pattern at day 10. But of course that is subject to change. I was always take improvements in the mid range over a day 10 tease.

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I’m done trolling for now.

 

The +IOD climatologically loses influence beyond the winter solstice (this is already evident in the U-wind and VP200 fields). The WPAC/dateline takes over when this happens, and this transient regime of vacillating EPOs will yield to something much more exciting. We’ll probably be tracking this blocky, cold pattern later this month.

 

I’m quite confident in this.

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Was just having a little fun after you and Dr. Angst hit me this morning. No ill intent.

 

I’m sure in a few weeks we’ll look back at this stretch and laugh.

 

The last thing we need is someone else who does not focus entirely on what Jesse wants to focus on.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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d**n. Those look kind of warm. Probably not a big mountain snowpack builder at the lower elevation ski resorts.

Mean 850s are near to below average almost the whole run. Average is around 0c at this point in the season, and that is generally good for resort level snow, if not a little lower.

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